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UK faces food, fuel and drug shortages if it leaves EU, says contested leaked document

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By Kate Holton and William James

Britain will face shortages of fuel, food and medicine if it leaves the European Union without a transition deal, according to leaked official documents reported by the Sunday Times whose interpretation was immediately contested by ministers.

Setting out a vision of jammed ports, public protests and widespread disruption, the paper said the forecasts compiled by the Cabinet Office set out the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than the worst-case scenarios.

But Michael Gove, the minister in charge of coordinating"no-deal" preparations, challenged that interpretation, saying the documents did set out a worst-case scenario and that planning had been accelerated in the last three weeks.

The Times said up to 85% of lorries using the main Channel crossings may not be ready for French customs, meaning disruption at ports would potentially last up to three months before the flow of traffic improved.

The government also believes a hard border between the British province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, will be likely as plans to avoid widespread checks will prove unsustainable, the Times said.

"Compiled this month by the Cabinet Office under the codename Operation Yellowhammer, the dossier offers a rare glimpse into the covert planning being carried out by the government to avert a catastrophic collapse in the nation's infrastructure," the Times reported.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's office said it did not comment on leaked documents. But Gove said it was an old document that did not reflect current preparedness.

"It is the case, as everyone knows, that if we do have a no-deal exit there will inevitably be some disruption, some bumps in the road. That's why we want a deal," Gove told reporters.

"But it is also the case that the UK government is far more prepared now than it was in the past, and it's also important for people to recognise that what's being described in these documents... is emphatically a worst-case scenario," Gove added.

A government source blamed the leak on an unnamed former minister who wanted to influence negotiations with the EU.

"This document is from when ministers were blocking what needed to be done to get ready to leave and the funds were not available," said the source, who declined to be named. "It has been deliberately leaked by a former minister in an attempt to influence discussions with EU leaders."

The United Kingdom is heading towards a constitutional crisis and a showdown with the EU as Johnson has repeatedly vowed to leave the bloc on Oct 31 without a deal unless it agrees to renegotiate the Brexit divorce.

Yet after more than three years of Brexit dominating EU affairs, the bloc has repeatedly refused to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement.

Brexit minister Stephen Barclay said on Twitter he had signed a piece of legislation which set in stone the repeal of the 1972 European Communities act - the laws which made Britain a member of the organisation now known as the EU.

Though his move was largely procedural, in line with previously approved laws, Barclay said in a statement: "This is a clear signal to the people of this country that there is no turning back (from Brexit)."

A group of more than 100 lawmakers wrote to Johnson calling for an emergency recall of parliament to discuss the situation.

"We face a national emergency, and parliament must now be recalled in August and sit permanently until October 31 so that the voices of the people can be heard, and that there can be proper scrutiny of your government," the letter said.

Johnson will this week tell French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the Westminster parliament cannot stop Brexit and a new deal must be agreed if Britain is to avoid leaving the EU without one.

Merkel said during a panel discussion at the Chancellery:"We are prepared for any outcome, we can say that, even if we do not get an agreement. But at all events I will make an effort to find solutions - up until the last day of negotiations."

Johnson is coming under pressure from politicians across the political spectrum to prevent a disorderly departure, with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn vowing to bring down Johnson's government to delay Brexit.

It is, however, unclear if lawmakers have the unity or power to use the British parliament to prevent a no-deal departure, likely to be the UK's most significant foreign policy move since World War Two.

© (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2019.

©2019 GPlusMedia Inc.

83 Comments
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We cut ties with former British colonies in order to join the EU and now we're going to cut ties with the EU in order to be independent?

What is this, a deathwish?

10 ( +13 / -3 )

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/18/752173091/leaked-brexit-document-depicts-government-fears-of-gridlock-food-shortages-unres

4 ( +6 / -2 )

It is of little comfort that the population of Great Britain is showing the same levels of stupidity that is gripping our own country. They can see from our own experiences with Trump how badly the results have been. You would think that with the amount of railing they have done about our level of stupidity that they would think twice before emulating those mistakes. 

I hope that the English will come to their senses and back away from the precipice before their leaders take them over edge. It is a long way to the bottom and the landing will be very painful, and in the end, they will be much worse off then they are now.

4 ( +11 / -7 )

I hope that the English will come to their senses and back away from the precipice before their leaders take them over edge.

The English or the British?

10 ( +10 / -0 )

The English ( especially the arrogant, public-schooled right-wing, self-entitled elite) must bear the greatest responsibility for the Brexit debacle. That being said, Brexit is THEIR unicorn-fuelled fantasy of "taking back control" (for themselves only), a mission impossible that can never become a reality if Parliament and the EU have any say. Boris will soon choke on his full-English Brexit and be ignominiously carried out from No 10 to the oblivion he fully deserves.

6 ( +11 / -5 )

The worst case scenario may be unlikely, but it is possible. Gove and Lying Johnson should admit that shortages of food, fuel and medicine are definitely possible if their no-deal approach is followed.

11 ( +12 / -1 )

It just means that all the dependencies will have to be met locally without the usual suspects benefiting.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

More childish scaremongering. Don't be fooled by the poor losers who can't accept the reality that they lost. The UK will be fine just as it was before it joined the EU :)

-8 ( +5 / -13 )

There will be a few bumps in the road, but like the Millennium Bug, this is all pie in the sky stuff.

Things will get sorted within a couple of months, if not weeks.

-9 ( +3 / -12 )

There will be a few bumps in the road, but like the Millennium Bug, this is all pie in the sky stuff.

Things will get sorted within a couple of months, if not weeks.

There is no way you can know this.

10 ( +12 / -2 )

True, but inductive reasoning is a useful way of estimating things.

There is no way that anyone can say it will be dreadful. So, how about somewhere in the middle?

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

I hope that the English will come to their senses and back away from the precipice before their leaders take them over edge

That is an interesting take. What about the millions of Welsh, Scottish and Irish people who voted to leave?

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

73 days until Brexit and there have been no new changes in the leaving deal. Backstop anyone?

9 ( +9 / -0 )

Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain.

7 ( +10 / -3 )

What about the millions of Welsh, Irish and Scottish people that voted leave, though? I don't recall any country voting 100% remain.

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

I did a little number crunching. Here's how many people in Wales, Scotland and N.I. voted leave:

Wales: 854,572

Scotland: 1,018,322

Northern Ireland: 349,442

Interesting fact: If these people hadn't voted leave, then remain would have won.

-7 ( +2 / -9 )

Interesting fact: If these people hadn't voted leave, then remain would have won.

What exactly makes that fact interesting?

7 ( +10 / -3 )

What exactly makes that fact interesting?

That people say that Brexit is purely and English thing, despite Wales also having a majority for leave.

Without the votes of Scottsh and Irish and Welsh leave voters, England by itself couldn't have won the referendum. People seem to forget that the result was based on the total number of votes of the entire population of the UK, not just England.

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

Northern Ireland remain 55.78% clear remain

Scotland remain 62% clear remain

Wales remain 47.47% clear leave

England remain 40.74% clear leave

UK remain 48.11% leave

If the referendum vote was held today, it would be very difficult to predict which way it would go.

What is clear there are 73 days to go and no new Bozo exit deal.

8 ( +10 / -2 )

That people say that Brexit is purely and English thing, despite Wales also having a majority for leave.

I don't think the people have been saying that. I think that's what you think the people have been saying.

Without the votes of Scottsh and Irish and Welsh leave voters, England by itself couldn't have won the referendum.

Are you sure? I don't think your math works correctly there.

7 ( +10 / -3 )

Who needs food, drugs, fuel etc when you have Brexit?

10 ( +11 / -1 )

Who needs food, drugs, fuel etc when you have Brexit?

Just as worrying is people don’t any need policies from a party when voting for Farage’s fart-lighting act.

10 ( +10 / -0 )

I don't think the people have been saying that. I think that's what you think the people have been saying.

Just a few comments from this thread alone:

*I hope that the English will come to their senses and back away from the precipice before their leaders take them over edge.*

The English or the British?

The English ( especially the arrogant, public-schooled right-wing, self-entitled elite) must bear the greatest responsibility for the Brexit debacle.

Regarding the maths:

Are you sure? I don't think your math works correctly there.

Can you tell me how you calculate the numbers? Here's mine:

Total remain votes: 16,141,241

Leave votes (England only) : 15,188,406

Without the leave votes from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, England's leave vote alone wouldn't have won the referendum.

Is that incorrect?

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

@zichi

I have to point out that England was not 40.74% remain as you stated in your post. It was 46.62%.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

Is that incorrect?

It is. You even said it yourself:

I have to point out that England was not 40.74% remain as you stated in your post. It was 46.62%.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

The most challenging struggle for the UK political establishment has been accepting the 2016 referendum result.

Understanding that the Maastricht Treaty spelled out a Federal Agenda without any mandate or the will from the then, peoples of twelve member states. This set in motion a political and economic Union without recourse to any true realisation of democratic accountability.

Read it !!!!! …......5. It was a giant leap forward for European integration........It does not take some right wing knuckle dragger to understand the implications to hold our political leadership to account !!! True socialists Tony Benn, Peter Shore, Barbara Castle understood this clearly

Five things you need to know about the Maastricht Treaty........

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/explainers/tell-me-more/html/25_years_maastricht.en.html

Is this retched propaganda about the UK faces food, fuel and drug shortages if it leaves EU, seriously valid?

When 550 countries outside of the European Union have little issue with food, fuel and drug shortages. The principal of PPP, perfect preparation and prevention, a clean break from every aspect of EU regulatory and the Common Agricultural Policy. Except change and move on.

Do you serious believe the people of US and Japan would politicly join such a Union ?!!!

Not on your the hair of your chinny chin chin.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

@strangerland

It is. You even said it yourself:

I am pointing out what zichi said was not correct.

I used the correct figures (England 46.62% remain 53.38% leave = 15,188,406 votes for leave)

Can you please tell me how you think it's incorrect?

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

Can you please tell me how you think it's incorrect?

Because the numbers show that England alone voted to leave, without those other nations, contrary to your claim.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

Project Fear at it again, there my be chaos in the short term in the long term Britain will be ok, the EU is only a major benefit of Germany and a lesser extent France the other Countries would be better off on their own.

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

My claim: England's leave vote was not enough by itself to win the referendum. The leave vote from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland was needed for leave to win.

Total remain votes (UK): 16,141,241

Leave votes (England only) : 15,188,406

How is that incorrect?

-7 ( +1 / -8 )

My claim: England's leave vote was not enough by itself to win the referendum.

Yes it was. England voted less than 50% to remain.

You aren't trying to say we should only count the leave votes, and ignore the remain are you? That would be like saying 'The leaves would not have won if other countries were also allowed to vote'. Sure, probably true, but a pretty irrelevant and useless piece of information.

You can either count both remain and leave votes, or ignore both of them, but you can't cherry pick. At least not if you want to be thought of as someone who can form a logical argument.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

Project Fear at it again, there my be chaos in the short term in the long term Britain will be ok, 

There is no way you can know this.

What does ‘ok’ mean? Better than before? Worse than before? About the same?

4 ( +6 / -2 )

@jimizo

When someone says they don't think it'll be armageddon, you keep saying "There is no way you can know this".

My questions to you is, how do you know it won't be? What do you think it will be like? And, how do you know?

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

You aren't trying to say we should only count the leave votes, and ignore the remain are you?

My advice, stop digging.

When did I ignore the remain votes? I posted the total of remain votes for the entire UK.

I think you've realised you got the wrong end of the stick trying to argue something that I didn't say.

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar are not member states of the European Union. The United Kingdom has Treaty membership, hence the 2016 referendum covered a single voting area resulting in 17,410,742 votes to leave and 16,141,241 to remain.

If UK fails to leave on the 31st October, by hook or crook, well let not go there.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

My advice, stop digging.

Digging for what? I simply pointed out how your assertion is incorrect.

When did I ignore the remain votes? I posted the total of remain votes for the entire UK.

Yes, and then you tried to somehow count England's leave votes plus the leave votes of the other nations, while ignoring the remain votes of the other nations.

I think you've realised you got the wrong end of the stick trying to argue something that I didn't say.

No, you've made a logical error, and are having troubles seeing the logic of that.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Strangerland, the figure I used for the REMAIN vote was 16,141,241. That is England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The figure I used for LEAVE votes (England only) was 15,188,406. This figure does not include Scotland, Wales and Norther Ireland leave votes.

Do you disagree that 15,188,406 is a smaller number than 16,141,241?

You have somehow reversed these numbers in your brain. I meant stop digging because the hole you have dug yourself into is now quite deep.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

You keep saying England needed the votes of the other countries to leave, yet by your own admission, the vote in England was to leave. So no, it didn't need those votes. If England were voting by itself, it still would have been leave.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

 the EU is only a major benefit of Germany and a lesser extent France the other Countries would be better off on their own.

Not quite. https://euobserver.com/economic/125125

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Only the United Kingdom is a member of the EU, not the separate countries. The UK have voted to leave. More importantly, than all the voter distractions, and what if's is there is no new deal happening.

What happens when the UK crashes out and the backstop automatically put in place?

The real issues are the deal and was is happening.

The UK voted to leave.

Option cancell. Option Second Referendum. Option just leave.

Option Northern Ireland referendum to leave the UK. Option Scotland referendum to leave the UK. Option Gibraltar referendum to leave the UK.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

The referendum was UK vote. England could not vote by itself. The other nations could have theoretically kept England in the EU.

The majority of England voted leave, but that number alone was not enough to beat the total number of remain votes of the UK as a whole. If Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland voters hadn't voted leave, then remain would have won.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

My questions to you is, how do you know it won't be? What do you think it will be like? And, how do you know?

I’m not the one making the claim. You or I don’t know bad it will be in the short or long term. It’s a shot in the dark. Boris Johnson is our PM - a clown notorious for his poor organizational skills and dishonesty. There are jobs and potentially lives at stake here.

I tend to get suspicious when pro-Brexit supporters compare this to the millennium bug and tell us not to worry. My dad told me to never ask a barber if you need a haircut. It’s sound advice.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

The referendum was UK vote. England could not vote by itself. The other nations could have theoretically kept England in the EU.

Um, that's equivalent to saying "if they didn't vote the way they did, the vote would have been different".

Um, yeah.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

M&M have their plans in place if the UK decides to crash out without a deal.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

I’m not the one making the claim. You or I don’t know bad it will be in the short or long term.

Precisely. So, how can you be so confident it won't be okay? That's what I would like to know.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Um, that's equivalent to saying "if they didn't vote the way they did, the vote would have been different".

Um, yeah.

That would be true for anything.

I am saying that leave has happened because of England leave voters plus leave voters from Wales, Scotland and N.I. You were adamant that was not the case.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

The Government and the Brexiteers are still telling us that everything will be alright in the face of evidence to the contrary. What with the idiot Priti Patel now saying freedom of movement for EU citizens will cease on the 1st of November just shows how interminally thick and heartless are those in charge.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

That would be true for anything.

Exactly, which is why it's baffling that you even made the claim.

I mean, I could equally claim "if England hadn't have voted to leave, then they would be staying", and such a comment would be equally relevant to this thread as yours was.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

I think Jimizo has his own voice, strangerland.

I have gathered his opinion from what he has said:

Boris Johnson is our PM - a clown notorious for his poor organizational skills and dishonesty. There are jobs and potentially lives at stake here.

It's clear he doesn't think it will be good or even just okay:

What does ‘ok’ mean? Better than before? Worse than before? About the same?

We have also spoken about this issue before.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

It is of little comfort that the population of Great Britain is showing the same levels of stupidity that is gripping our own country. They can see from our own experiences with Trump how badly the results have been. You would think that with the amount of railing they have done about our level of stupidity that they would think twice before emulating those mistakes. 

Well, the ones that voted for Brexit anyway - similar to Trump supporters... or toffs. It was a triumph for little Englanders, xenophobes, those against immigration and those who identified as root vegetables. Those of us who voted remain had more common sense ;)

2 ( +6 / -4 )

PM Bozo singing "On the good ship lollypop!"

1 ( +3 / -2 )

What's with the constant obsession with ethnic England, ethnic Wales, ethnic Scotland, ethnic Northern Ireland when none of those are members of the EU? Only the UK is a member, and the majority of British citizens and those half and half British citizens voted to leave. That's it.

Now we wait for PM Bozo to play his fiddle and give a dog a bone.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

says contested leaked document

"Contested" is the keyword here. Anyone who does not recognize this article and the mentioned "document" as more globalist propaganda is seriously gullible.

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

The document DOES exist - it was put together by a Government department as a worst case scenario. It is not Project Fear, it is not fake news, it exists.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Project Fear at work again!

This really is a load of biased, inaccurate claptrap, just what you would expect from the mandarins of the Civil Service.

-5 ( +4 / -9 )

GB was ridiculous with this -- asking for a divorce while still keeping everything and giving nothing. They are screwed. England is going to drop to it's least important place in history since before it was a nation. Once they're out, they'll be begging to get back in. morons.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

@smithinjapan

They are screwed.

Before the referendum in 2016, many posters on this site were adamant that remain was going to win. Some said the leavers were going to have egg on their face on June 24th. It didn't happen.

I understand that you are against Brexit and that you honestly believe it will be a disaster. But what if it isn't? What if it really isn't as half as bad as some say it will be? Many people were wrong about Brexit, and many of those same people were wrong about Trump becoming President. I genuinely believe this is going to be another one.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

GB was ridiculous with this -- asking for a divorce while still keeping everything and giving nothing. They are screwed. England is going to drop to it's least important place in history since before it was a nation. Once they're out, they'll be begging to get back in. morons.

Two things my fellow TARDIS traveller - we didn't all vote for Brexit, so I object to being called a moron, and please stop using England when you mean either the UK or Britain... those of us in Scotland really don't like that.

8 ( +8 / -0 )

Apparently the shortages were for French Champagne, and Truffles... which only the most Wealthy would find as being a disaster to their Life style.

News Stories have a tendency to over sensationalize the real news item... which is understandable, News Sources wish to attract Readers....

Smart people... will read between the lines, and seeks multiple sources before making an opinion.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

tangirne2000: "I understand that you are against Brexit and that you honestly believe it will be a disaster. But what if it isn't?"

hahah. Have fun, bud. Oh, and when the deal is done, I have not one, not two, but 10,000 unicorns to sell you, dirt cheap. I'll even let you trade them for food stamps after your nation is done.

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

tangerine2000: "I genuinely believe this is going to be another one."

I missed that last part. So, you genuinely believe Trump was the right choice? and that's your defence of the potential fallout of Brexit?

-4 ( +4 / -8 )

@smithinjapan

Not saying Trump was the right choice. I am saying (this is really getting tiring now, so many people just can't read carefully) that the people who said "there is no way Donald Trump will become the President" were wrong. Very wrong.

Just because lots of people say X is going to happen/not happen, doesn't mean it will/won't.

But I have seen a pattern, some people are absolutely convinced that they are right and when it doesn't come to pass, instead of evaluating why they were so wrong, they simply blame others and refuse to learn why they had made an incorrect prediction.

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

The people who said "there is no way Donald Trump will become the President" were wrong. Very wrong

I'll cop to that. We live and learn.

Mind, I didn't factor the Russians into the equation, and I didn't properly take account of the ongoing campaign to purge voters from the register, so it was more a case of believing "There is no way Donald Trump will become the President in a fairly fought election campaign." I also didn't expect a candidate, a supposed billionaire at that, to get away with concealing his tax information all the way up to election day.

But he's easily won the crown of worst president in US history, and on that I was right, though I didn't expect him to be quite this bad. Most people two years into their job have actually learned, on some level, to do the job. But not this oaf. He's still as lost as he was on day one.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Brexit will be the chance for renegotiation.

Why would the British stop wanting to import German cars or Irish butter and why would the British stop wanting to go to Spain in the winter?

Well, the answer is that none of this will change.

What will change is the ease or not of doing the above which is based on rules and regulations that ‘people’ make.

Brexit failure is based on the premise that somehow there is a lack of ability to negotiate.

Clearly, that is not the case...

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Tangerine2000

*"I am saying (this is really getting tiring now, so many people just can't read carefully) that the people who said "there is no way Donald Trump will become the President" were wrong. Very wrong."*

I can't remember many polls predicting this. Most polls were around 25% for a Trump win, which is equivalent to tossing two coins and getting two heads. We got two heads.

And as many people predicted, Trump as president is a disaster and so will Brexit be.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

@2020hindsights

So, if Brexit doesn't turn out to be a disaster and if Trump gets re-elected in 2020, would you start to consider there is a reason why you were wrong?

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

@wipeout

You started out well

I'll cop to that. We live and learn.

However, you then followed it up with:

Mind, I didn't factor....

...and I didn't properly take account of the...

....I also didn't expect a....

Sound like your saying "I wasn't wrong because all of these unexpected things happened"

But he's easily won the crown of worst president in US history, and on that I was right, though I didn't expect him to be quite this bad.

Well, there's no way he'll get re-elected next year, is there?

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

The only honest response from a Brexiter to this report is that food, drugs, fuel, jobs, the economy, Irish peace, the situation of EU nationals living in the UK and vice versa, etc etc, do not matter. The only thing that matters is the holy grail of Brexit, right? Regardless of consequences.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

The only honest response from a Brexiter to this report is that food, drugs, fuel, jobs, the economy, Irish peace, the situation of EU nationals living in the UK and vice versa, etc etc, do not matter. The only thing that matters is the holy grail of Brexit, right? Regardless of consequences.

I think that's what you think Brexiteers believe.

Leaving the EU is about regaining sovereignty and exiting an undemocratic federalist superstate. It is about ending vast annual payments to the EU. It is about having the laws which govern the lives of British people being decided by the British Parliament. It is about deciding who can enter the country instead of having a door wide open policy with limitless numbers.

But I am sure you'll look at this and in your eyes, you'll just see what you said above.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

Not at all. Your view is that what you call sovereignty etc is more important than the things I mentioned, i.e. jobs and the economy among others. My view is the opposite.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

To me sovereignty is more important than the economy or jobs, which incidentally were supposed to have disappeared after a vote to leave, nevermind actually leaving.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

To me sovereignty is more important than the economy or jobs

That's exactly what I was getting at. Will never agree though!

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Hmmmm i'm pretty sure if there's one thing my fellow countrymen won't be short on, it's drugs.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

it,s even more tragic if we think that the (old) (racist) (ignorant) people that made "leave" win are already dead, or almost there. we all know that if there was a new referendum, the remain would win easily. messing with younger people,s lives over lies is a very ugly thing.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

the (old) (racist) (ignorant) people that made "leave" win

Really? I mean, really!?

How about (more experienced) (wiser) (indepentently minded)?

1 ( +3 / -2 )

PM Bozo has stated he will shut the UK/EU borders on Oct 31st regardless that the previous PM May agreed to keep them open until 2021.

He does not say that will happen with the Irish border.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

If Johnson and his government had the slightest confidence in "alternative arrangements" then there would not be any concern about the backstop.

Said backstop is only insurance for such arrangements not happening.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Sound like your saying "I wasn't wrong because all of these unexpected things happened"

The opposite. I'm saying I was wrong, and that two things in particular that I didn't account for (because I didn't follow those issues closely at the time) were a factor in why I was wrong.

If I had known more about the Russian interference - a lot more - I'd have been far less confident that he couldn't win. But his victory was due to a combination of factors, including the abrupt announcement by Comey shortly before the election that they were reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton, and despite all of those things, Trump was still 3 million votes short of winning the popular vote.

Well, there's no way he'll get re-elected next year, is there?

Unfortunately that's not the case. As president he's practically been issued a blank cheque to continue breaking laws and violating ethics; meanwhile the door remains open to Russian interference, and the intelligence services are under attack from the Administration and from Republicans. None of this assures his re-election, and he stands a very good chance of being deposed next November, but anyone who believes the next election will be a fair contest is deluded. The Russians will be doing whatever they can get away with, and millions of voters have been removed from the register in the last few years. Those two aspects alone work in Trump's favour. And not at all in favour of the Democrat nominee.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Tangerine2000

So, if Brexit doesn't turn out to be a disaster and if Trump gets re-elected in 2020, would you start to consider there is a reason why you were wrong?

I haven't said anything about Trump getting re-elected in 2020, so I can't see how I can be wrong about it.

But, if Brexit doesn't turn out to be a disaster, sure, I'll eat humble pie. Will you do the same if it does turn out to be a disaster???

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

I see a revolution coming, just need a few yellow vests to get it started

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Heavy changes bring always difficulty in the short term but reward in the longer term. That is what experience tells you.

I am half French half English in fact but don't see British as people who cannot adapt.

PM BJ may take advantage of the situation for his personal interest but so many more British will correct the target cleverly.

The first rule I follow is democracy by vote.

Objectibely, Denmark as done much better economically not taking the Euro.

UK will do the same somehow without being a strict member of EU club, which does not mean it will not keep most current rules.

There is no black or white situation.

Some wise opinion : invest in UK while most see chaos happening.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Brexit is around two months away.

On a personal note, I’m seeing huge growth in my export business into the UK.

I deal with high end products and demand is massive.

This month’s figures were astonishing.

Maybe I am lucky but noting the high employment in the UK, I don’t think so.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Jonathan Prin

The first rule I follow is democracy by vote.

I agree. They should have a second referendum. No deal Brexit wasn't one of the options of the first referendum.

Objectibely, Denmark as done much better economically not taking the Euro.

Don't confuse being part of the Euro and being a member of the EU. The UK was never part of the Euro and that should stay the same. Leaving the EU will ensure the UK does worse economically.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

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