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Virus lockdown extended for Australia's capital by 4 weeks

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It isn't false; the study I referenced says it very clearly. I provided the reference and quote from the paper. I know you saw it before it was deleted since you quoted a different part of the same post...

Quote from the reference then, because they actually said something completely different. Actually they explicitly recognized their collection is biased toward the most symptomatic patients of the natural infection, and that for comparison they only used one single type of vaccine on patients inouclated many months before.

So if the authors themselves are saying your over-generalization is false I would tend to believe them and not you.

I stated many times, and many people here agree, that the actual infection number in Japan is much higher than the reported infection rate. So we are clearly closer to herd immunity than many people believe.

And you have been wrong with that since more than one year ago, repeating something that is false do not make it less false. You dont know how much infections actually happen in Japan, nor how close is the country to herd immunity, the experts say vaccination is extremely necessary, once again they are a much more reliable source, at least they have not failed predicting endlessly for more than one year that the pandemic is close to finish for Japan as you have done.

But I and many experts believe that the young and healthy might be better off not getting the vaccine. 

But the experts that actually have the evidence contradict you and the terrible sources you have presented, none of which can even support their views on evidence, much less discuss the evidence that proves your belief is wrong.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

But if someone has already recovered from an infection, their immunity against the Delta variant is 30x greater than that provided by the vaccine.

That is still false, because asymptomatic infection can produce much lower levels of protection and not all vaccines produce the same immune reaction, falsely generalizing both things (natural immunity as if everybody got the response that hospitalized patients do, and vaccine derived immunity as if everybody had the same protection as the one from one single vaccine 6 months after being used) is a too obvious attempt to mislead people.

It isn't false; the study I referenced says it very clearly. I provided the reference and quote from the paper. I know you saw it before it was deleted since you quoted a different part of the same post....

And I do believe that for young healthy people the risk of getting infected and having serious adverse effects or dying is lower than that from the vaccine

Which is still irrelevant, not only because many of your beliefs have been demosntrated as mistaken (as when you predicted Japan was entering herd immunity from the summer of last year) but because experts of the world can demonstrate with scientific data exactly the opposite of what you believe.

I stated many times, and many people here agree, that the actual infection number in Japan is much higher than the reported infection rate. So we are clearly closer to herd immunity than many people believe...

And my comment above is still very relevant, everyone should seriously consider their own risk benefit ratio in a well informed manner. For most old and sick people, they should probably get vaccinated. But I and many experts believe that the young and healthy might be better off not getting the vaccine. Trying to get everyone vaccinated is not warranted, and is simply pushing the big pharma narrative. And doing so during a pandemic will just lead to more variants through immune escape, as we have clearly been seeing.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

As mentioned above and many times elsewhere, vaccinate the vulnerable and whoever wants to, and allow the use of safe and effective early treatments. Australia's lockdowns don't solve anything, they just delay the problems and make them worse.

And as previously demonstrated with references of the scientific community reaction to the Great Barrington declaration this is not a scientifc approach, it is not justified and endangers not only the vulnerable population but everybody by promoting the appearance of variants that can make all kind of immunity less effective.

Saying that lockdowns are the only alternative from letting the disease run wild is a false dichotomy, in reality the best approach is social distancing measures as appropiate and vaccination of the whole population to slow down or even stop transmission.

Safe and effective early treatments are already being used worldwide, the only ones that are not used are those that have not demonstrated to be useful, including HCQ and ivermectin, and as long as there is no evidence to contradict this they should not be used. That is the difference between science and faith, in science you need first the evidence to prove something before asking everybody to do it. And no, the excuse that all the well recongized medical and scientific institutions of the world are all in some hidden conspiracy to hide treatments from their own friends and family is still impossible to believe for anybody that has common sense.

 But if someone has already recovered from an infection, their immunity against the Delta variant is 30x greater than that provided by the vaccine.

That is still false, because asymptomatic infection can produce much lower levels of protection and not all vaccines produce the same immune reaction, falsely generalizing both things (natural immunity as if everybody got the response that hospitalized patients do, and vaccine derived immunity as if everybody had the same protection as the one from one single vaccine 6 months after being used) is a too obvious attempt to mislead people.

And I do believe that for young healthy people the risk of getting infected and having serious adverse effects or dying is lower than that from the vaccine

Which is still irrelevant, not only because many of your beliefs have been demosntrated as mistaken (as when you predicted Japan was entering herd immunity from the summer of last year) but because experts of the world can demonstrate with scientific data exactly the opposite of what you believe.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

A number of experts have for some time observed that natural immunity was superior, with confirmed reinfections being extremely rare.

How do you propose a controlled system of gradually allowing hundreds of millions of people to aquire 'natural immunity' without millions of them dying in the process?

As mentioned above and many times elsewhere, vaccinate the vulnerable and whoever wants to, and allow the use of safe and effective early treatments. Australia's lockdowns don't solve anything, they just delay the problems and make them worse.

Also, to make it very clear, I am not saying we should go out and intentionally get infected. But if someone has already recovered from an infection, their immunity against the Delta variant is 30x greater than that provided by the vaccine. I provided a reference for that study, but it was deleted...

And I do believe that for young healthy people the risk of getting infected and having serious adverse effects or dying is lower than that from the vaccine.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

1glenn

When the pandemic started, the prevalent strain of the Covid virus had characteristics such that scientists estimated that we might be able to achieve herd immunity, with as little as 60% to 70% of the population having immunity from the disease. However, even then, scientists hedged their bets, and said that it might be necessary to achieve 80, 85, or 90 percent immunity.

With the new Delta strain of the covid virus, we see that it transmits between people much more easily than the early strain, and it now appears that we will need a higher rate of immunity than 70%. Places like New York and California already have about 70% of the adult population inoculated.

A good argument for vaccine mandates.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

When the pandemic started, the prevalent strain of the Covid virus had characteristics such that scientists estimated that we might be able to achieve herd immunity, with as little as 60% to 70% of the population having immunity from the disease. However, even then, scientists hedged their bets, and said that it might be necessary to achieve 80, 85, or 90 percent immunity.

With the new Delta strain of the covid virus, we see that it transmits between people much more easily than the early strain, and it now appears that we will need a higher rate of immunity than 70%. Places like New York and California already have about 70% of the adult population inoculated.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

SteveinJapanSep. 14  05:17 pm JST

By the end of the day (pandemic), they will be the winners with least no. of hospitalizations & deaths per million

There is more to living than simply avoiding death. Think of all the people robbed of a chance to say goodbye to loved ones interstate/overseas, robbed of a chance to socialize and enjoy the prime of their lives, robbed of their livelihoods, etc. I'm sure Australia won't be winners when you look at bankruptcies and suicides.

Yes, you are right, and all the experts, NZ, Australia, Hong Kong and Taiwain that chose elimination of the virus to save lives are wrong.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Why do posters assume that all those not wanting or even needing the vax are "right wingers"? Bit of a shallow attitude, no?

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Hito Bito

Here's the thing: Vaccination DOES NOT STOP COVID SPREAD. Prevent? Yes. STOP? NO.

Actually it does.

If you are vaccinated, you are 5 time less likely to catch covid.

And if everyone you were in contact with are vaccinated, they are now 25 times less likely to have caught covid compared to if you were all unvaccinated.

If everyone does their part and gets vaccinated, the spread will be greatly reduced.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

A number of experts have for some time observed that natural immunity was superior, with confirmed reinfections being extremely rare.

Again, that do not make natural immunity superior, specially if you are going to compare infected symptomatic patients against one single variety of vaccine. This is because you are still getting the risks of the infection (and an infection that is at least symptomatic, more likely hospitalized as they authors recognize as a limitation of their comparison). Having an arm amputated is not a "superior" measure against losing that arm, because it produces precisely what you are trying to avoid.

So no, as totally expected what nameless people on the internet say is still a much worse solution than what the experts of the field in all countries of the world say it should be done.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

"So successful..."

lol. "So successful" ...they need to return to another one month lockdown!? lol What will you claim next? Afghanistan withdrawal massacre...an "unqualifed success"? lol.

Here's the thing: Vaccination DOES NOT STOP COVID SPREAD. Prevent? Yes. STOP? NO.

Do you "follow the science" phonies understand this? You can dictate that 100% lockdown of fully-vaccinated citizens becomes the New Norm...and you'll still see new cases! Australia's simply proving that the Forever Lockdown Emperors Have No Clothes! More and more often now, it's the FULLY VAXXED citizen doing the spreading!

I'm relaxing, fully vaxxed, in Orange County California. Cases here are up among fully vaccinated people. Literally thousands of fully-vaxxed people here have CAUGHT the COVID. Cases are up, especially among young people (under 34 year-old deaths account for fewer than one in twenty deaths, while the "serious" and the "hospitalized" are almost 85% OVER the average age of LIFE EXPECTANCY.

How would an Endless Lockdown "help" this situation or ever be "successful" in a situation where the elderly are the ones who, 19 in 20 times, die, nowhere in the world is there or will there be a 100% vaccinated population due to allergies, reactions or other legitimate reasons (as well as all your politically-loaded excuses about the "non-vaxxed", all the while ignoring that Democrats (particularly African Americans) are some of the MOST RESISTANT culprits holding out on this latest tepid vaccination drive), and COVID will continue to exist, spread, be caught and lead to deaths, just like the flu, for the rest of our lives. The "vaccine" has proven to be no panecea to preventing the SPREAD of Covd. No draconian, poor-destroying ockdown will ever change these facts.

Wake up Authoritarian Apologists! Everyone else is already: it'd be a shame to see even Australia throw in the towel before you all do!

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Happy Day

Australia won't vaccinate themselves out of the pandemic.

Why? Of course they will.

Israel is on round 3 and planning for round 4.

No they aren't. They are at only 63% fully vaccinated. That's less than the UK. Israel started well, but have fallen by the wayside.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Heh, the righties HATE that Australia has been so successful with their covid response, as it exposes the failures of their right-wing extremist thinking!

Australia - the people are proud to be australian, and are willing to lockdown for the health of their people. In the meantime, they've had few deaths, lots of freedom, and an economy that has performed strongly throughout the pandemic.

Right-wingers opened up, and let their people die. Oops, failure.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

Australia won't vaccinate themselves out of the pandemic

said nobody ever, Australia is currently at 75.9 per cent first dose and 52.1 per cent fully vaccinated.

theyre actually in front of Japan now and aiming for 70% vaccination by November

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

This wasn't a study run by your uncle's mate's friend on Facebook, was it?

I don't think that's a very helpful comment. The idea that natural immunity is stronger than that received from vaccines is not new. It's a serious matter and worth discussing.

@Raw Beer,

I think one big issue is the cost of acquiring natural immunity. It's not the same for all diseases. A big effect of Covid has been the number of hospital places taken up by those with serious symptoms. It has delayed regular treatment for other conditions, and so has put many lives at risk. To me, that has probably been the worst effect of Covid. Vaccination has been shown to reduce the level of serious symptoms, and thus reduces pressure on hospital beds.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

A number of experts have for some time observed that natural immunity was superior, with confirmed reinfections being extremely rare.

How do you propose a controlled system of gradually allowing hundreds of millions of people to aquire 'natural immunity' without millions of them dying in the process?

Wouldn't more people die in this process than if they were to take the vaccine? Or are you still hoping for / predicting mass vaccine related deaths 5 / 10 / an unspecified number of years down the line to justify this recklessness?

I think you know the logical answer.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

just 4 weeks to stop the spread......they said 18 months ago.

B'Bye Australia.

It was nice knowing you.

Good luck with zero covid.

You're gonna need it.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

ClippetyClop...

It has nothing to do with intellect, I know some fairy smart anti-vaccers. Its like a cult, they are the chosen ones, they are "believers"... Nothing can convince them otherwise, well, time in the ICU seems to be working for a few.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Yes, natural immunity lasts longer and is broader than that conferred through vaccination. A study showed against Delta, natural immunity is 13x superior to vaccination.

Sort of like getting to know what a car crash would feel like by ploughing your car into a wall without a seatbelt.

We're 18 months into this now and some people are still struggling to intellectually grasp it, whilst at the same time desperately groping around for a way to sustain what they mistakenly decided was the right course 18 months ago. Pathetic stubborness.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Yes, natural immunity lasts longer and is broader than that conferred through vaccination.

That is still false (specially counting asymptomatic infection) and do nothing to refute the fact that to get natural immunity the person obviously get the risks from the infection that the immunity is meant to prevent, making the solution as bad as the problem.

That is clearly the most sensible approach.

It is common that people that have no interest on actual scientific knowledge try very hard to ignore the opinion of the experts and instead recognize as authority what nameless people on the internet say, it should be easy to understand how this is invalid.

-2 ( +7 / -9 )

The Neverending story.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Natural immunity is superior to vaccination immunity. Not saying they should have COVID parties, but the effect on young and healthy people is negligible.

Yes, natural immunity lasts longer and is broader than that conferred through vaccination. A study showed against Delta, natural immunity is 13x superior to vaccination.

Vaccinate the vulnerable plus whoever else wants it, then get on with life. There are a number of therapeutics to aid in the fight, which some countries have leaned on.

That is clearly the most sensible approach.

-4 ( +8 / -12 )

Australia won't vaccinate themselves out of the pandemic. Israel is on round 3 and planning for round 4.

Countries going for boosters without scientific evidence of a need for it (as in the general population) is a very poor argument to say those boosters are even necessary. At this point the opposite is more likely to be true, even if it defeats your point completely.

Natural immunity is superior to vaccination immunity. Not saying they should have COVID parties, but the effect on young and healthy people is negligible.

No it is not, because it comes with much higher risks, do you know what is much less risky than COVID for young healthy adults? vaccination for anybody for whom it is indicated, with the added benefit that it lowers the risk even if it was low on the first place. That means that vaccines are superior precisely because they don't need to expose people to unnecessary risks in order to get protection.

Vaccinate the vulnerable plus whoever else wants it, then get on with life. There are a number of therapeutics to aid in the fight, which some countries have leaned on.

This has been already criticized as counterproductive by the scientific and medical community, not only because there is no realistic way to protect the vulnerable population if everybody is infected, but because not vaccinating the general population increases the risk of the appearance of variants, as it has happened until now, and that would mean exposing the vulnerable population to infections that can avoid the immunity that they got previously, be it from natural infection or from the vaccines.

1 ( +11 / -10 )

Young people around 20 have their best life period being stolen by those continuous lockdowns and restrictions.

Like influenza, vaccine the old and persons at risk, and let others do their life while taking basic preventive measures

-3 ( +7 / -10 )

They just early knew or had luckily the right feeling there, how to treat those viruses and install appropriate countermeasures. Btw the whole region does so and has therefore the lower according numbers. It’s the right path they’re on, although many of you might have a different view on that , only seeing the restrictions but not the immediate and long term advantages.

-8 ( +2 / -10 )

By the end of the day (pandemic), they will be the winners with least no. of hospitalizations & deaths per million

There is more to living than simply avoiding death. Think of all the people robbed of a chance to say goodbye to loved ones interstate/overseas, robbed of a chance to socialize and enjoy the prime of their lives, robbed of their livelihoods, etc. I'm sure Australia won't be winners when you look at bankruptcies and suicides.

1 ( +10 / -9 )

Isolate or vaccinate. There is no third choice with this virus. There never was. Best approach by Australia & New Zeeland. By the end of the day (pandemic), they will be the winners with least no. of hospitalizations & deaths per million. Congratulations in advance!!!

-4 ( +6 / -10 )

Australia won't vaccinate themselves out of the pandemic. Israel is on round 3 and planning for round 4.

Natural immunity is superior to vaccination immunity. Not saying they should have COVID parties, but the effect on young and healthy people is negligible.

Vaccinate the vulnerable plus whoever else wants it, then get on with life. There are a number of therapeutics to aid in the fight, which some countries have leaned on.

1 ( +16 / -15 )

Biggest nanny state in the world. I am ashamed to call myself an Australian, but at least I'm lucky enough not be living there.

7 ( +17 / -10 )

This is the safest path forward and it will lead to a safer Christmas, a safer summer holiday period and a safer 2022," he told reporters.

Yeah you said exactly the same thing a year ago when you should have planned for a campaign of vaccination instead of following a non-scientific BS based zero-COVID strategy.

-1 ( +8 / -9 )

Australia is headed down a dark path.

6 ( +18 / -12 )

They really are sticking to the zero case game plan. I guess Australia has come this far to throw in the towel with this Delta curveball, but patience is also wearing very slim. Don't know what the sentiment is in the capital but the cracks are forming elsewhere. Coercive measures being put in place for the vaccine may backfire big time too. Especially as Aussies don't particularly enjoy being told what they have to do. asking is always better. Is Australia the only country in the world being this aggressive against the virus?

5 ( +11 / -6 )

Another month of lockdown ...all that with between 10 to 25 cases daily in the ACT.

8 ( +14 / -6 )

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