Aisan comments

Just heard from BBC that Premier Wen Jiabao on Sunday said China had set a lower than usual economic growth target and pledged to contain soaring prices as concern over runaway growth mounts.

Wen also said the world's second-largest economy would aim for seven percent annual growth over the next five years -- a rare lowering of its usual target of eight percent expansion, until now seen as key to staving off social unrest.

It seems that the CCP has abandoned the 保八 or "protect 8% growth".

The CCP is now between a rock and a hard place. Without 8% annual growth, there will be high unemployment rate. With 8% annual growth, they cannot contain the spiralling high inflation.

PRC will have to micro-manage its economy.

2011 will the year of global uncertainties.

I believe CCP will introduce some form of limited democracy this year.

From my personal point of views, ordinary Chinese will revolt in the following scenarios:

a) Starvation due to famine, inflation etc,

b) Chronic unemployment, and

c) Society unjust.

They will not fight for greater political freedom just for the sake of it.

China won't revolt, they'll just be a low, simmering burn that will slowly spiral out of control over the next ten years or so. So long as the military is paid and fed, they'll keep all rabble rousers under control.

This is Mao's doctrine. Power comes from the barrel of the gun.

In today PRC, the militaries are involved heavily in its economics. From running bus companies to having large shares in some key industrials.

With the Military having its foot prints in almost every where, do you think that any PLA General would want to see a destabilized PRC?

My fat Chinese friend swears that this so called Jasmine Revolution is some kind of US, CIA backed strategy to undermine China, whaddaya all think??

You can't blame your fat Chinese friend who sworn that as there are reports and videos of presidential hopeful Jon Huntsman, the U.S. Ambassador to China attending a Jasmine Revolution protest in Beijing.

Today PRK is now a different PRK of the 50s, they are now nuclear armed.

Today PRC is now a different PRC of the 50s, Mao is no longer around to instil crazy ideology.

Russia, PRC and Japan will definitely not want to be involved in Korea's penisular war.

All (including US) are worried that PRK may use nuclear arm and may suck them into this nuclear war which seems highly probable.

US and ROK have never fought in a nuclear war before.

ROK is dead worried about this loose-end neighbour using nuclear weapons and on the other hand, the democratically elected leaders of ROK can not sit still without venting their anger at PRK's shelling for fear that they will lose the future elections.

From the past history, US was gutless and dared not go into full direct conflict with the Soviet for fear of Soviet's nuclear weapons.

US is aware of PRK's nuclear asenals but without nuclear warhead capable long range misiles, nuclear lauched capable submarines and long range bombers, US has, by and large, hoped to confine this potential nuclear war within Korea's penisular. Japan cannot but worry that PRK may launch nuclear warhead mid range missiles at them.

If nuclear is unleased by the PRK, PRK and ROK will be totally wiped out.

PRC and Russia will again take the North Penisular and US and Japan will take the South. Deja vu, sound familar.

Everything is possible as the law has always bent backward to accomodate soldiers.

One very good example is - Soldier can make a privilege Will without the need of satisfying the requirements of the making of Will.

It is idiotic to listen to an agent.

He will say any time is good time to buy.

The other day I met an agent from Ireland, he kept telling me that the properties are dirt cheap now and said that I must buy now and the property will appreciate.

When I asked him how many properties he has in Ireland, he said none. So it would be foolish to listen to an agent.

Child sex is now an international crime.

No country will condone such crime.

Country can now charge its citizen for child sex committed in other country. So paedophile beware, you can run but no where to hide.

I believe child punishment or caning in Asian culture is tolerable as compared to the West.

Child punishment or caning becomes child abuse if it becomes excessive.

I guess the most Asians will ignore it completely if they regularly hear neighbour's child screaming thinking that it is one of the routine punishment. They tender to adopt a "Mind my own business" attitude.

Usually the child abuse is reported by school teacher after seeing the bruises marks on the child.

As a Western, I will definitely call the cop if I do regularly heard child screaming for no reason or notice a child with usual bruises.

In this case I think he'll get a decent amount of time but I think the prosecution will find it hard to prove that he intended to kill her.]

If you need to prove "intention to kill" as mens rea in Japan, it will be an international mockery for countries practising common law.

As long as you have mens rea to inflict GBH which resulted in death, the murder motive is proven.

It is real stupid of Times (should be the UK's Times) to print that bastard's letter.

Did Times' editor stopped and pondered for a second whether would such publication cause further harm and grief to her parents? Why open it up? Now her parents will be daunted by the reporters and will be forced to make a reply. To forgive that bastard, means unfair to their daughter. Not to forgive that bastard, means others will remark them as unforgiving.

Death sentence for him!! Hang till he dies. If not my poor mate will never RIP!!

After the test run, here come the actual crime. Rape? Maybe.

That moron will blame it on the manga as his defence.

Lawyers are necessary but too many of them and we become overly litigious and a blood sucking lawyer culture may appear.

I fully agree with Porter's statement.

When there are too many lawyers with too little work, the society will be more litigious.

The problem with Japan bengoshi is - they are geographically confined to Japan. Even Japanese companies choose to litigate in London or NY rather than in Tokyo. Maybe they have no trust with the legal process in Japan.

For Japan to be a litigious society is still a long way.

The ratio is 1 lawyer to 5,500 people.

US is 1 lawyer to 500 people.

This is a clear breach of Solicitor's Client's accounting rules.

This 弁護士 needs to be de-barred and struck off the roll.

Smokers are morons!

They spend hard earned money to ruin their health!

Not only that, the second hand smoke also ruin others health too!

I once advised my client to sue her smoker cum colleagues and tobacco company for causing her to suffer lung cancer.

I think the teacher must have been greatly influenced by those Japanese Hentai manga.

I wonder whether this mate has a loosen screw up there.

The German has admitted of such atrocities for their misdeed in the WWII what is the real reason for him to deny Holocaust?

The Island issue can be handled if WE, being friendly, have trust on each other.

From the SEA point of view, the whole problem of North East Asia (NEA) all boils down to lack of trust.

The SK distrust Japan, NK and PRC. Even between NK and PRC, there still linger a cord of distrust between them. Japan, as it appears, become the official punching bag of these nations.

Again due to historically when Japan did themselves a great disservice.

SK and Japan should be in one corner, but SK distrust Japan.

See how the love relationship get into a big mess.

I believe at the end of the day, Japan will slap a fine on the PRC skipper and expell him. This is a face saving solution for both sides.

First of all modern China is not ancient China. The isolationist thinking of the past does not appear to be the case any more. The development of a military capable of projecting power in the region is a strong indicator that China indends to have a stronger role in the region and globally.

For people of South East Asia, history also plays an important part of their lives and cultures.

Now is year 2010, why again the leaders are not so worried about PRC expanding its military. They are not building up their arms to protect themselves. My analysis is - they do not have past nightmares with PRC. It is a matter of TRUST. Imagine you are sleeping with these devils,i.e. Japan, the West and PRC. Given one of these devils (sorry to use the word "devil") to be the sleeping partner, who would the native trust?

Second. The presense of ethnic Chinese in APAC just shows the natural spead of commerce in the region. If you talk to SE Asians, many have strained class relationships with local Chinese and there are strong separations of non-Chinese and Chinese communities in Malaysia, Philippines and other nations. So I think your reasoning here does not stand up to closer observation.

If you have read my earlier posts, I have conceded that despite the facts that the chinese have been living in South East Asia for two to three hundred years, there are still and WILL have conflicts with the local natives. THe bloodest being the May 1998 in Indonesia.

This racial conflict WILL still continue until GOD know when. As long as it does not blow to bloody conflict, it is part and parcel of the lives.

I use this as an example to show why the people of South East Asia trust PRC than Japan and the West.

This is my belief from what I see.

Even if Japan were to beg on all four and apologise sincerely. China will still continue with their on and off verbal engagement like lovers do.

Japan is China "notional" enemy to stir up patrotism and nationalism amongst its people. It is part and parcel of the nation building in any one country.

So long as it does not go beyond arm conflict, it is acceptable to both sides.

Japan will consider China as "notional enemy" once NK is done and out.

This is the same old story like in the cold war, when Soviet would use US and US would use Soviet. End of the day, nothing happened.

But then again, the whole point is why Beijing would want to jeopardize the good relations they have built with a much more muscular foreign/military policy? Do they really think that Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, all of whom sit on the South China Sea, won't be troubled by China deciding that it owns the whole damn thing and that they should just accept that border/ territorial disputes will be decided as Beijing sees fit? Or has Beijing decided that it is now so strong that the " small countries" had better just shut up and know their place?

I believe the facts speak for itself. Why China only engage with Japan openly in their dispute? Why when come to Parcel Island with Vietnam and ROC and Spartley with Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and the Phillippines, the disputes (although may be there) are not blown out of proportion.

Aren't Brunei and Malaysia easy target for PRC? Why of all, it must be Japan?

Why when ASEAN leaders visit Taiwan or ROC or vice versa, China only make small noise. When they can threaten ASEAN small countries with all her might if she wants to. But when Taiwanese leaders visit Japan or vice versa, the matter will be blown out of proportion in China.

Ask these questions. Reason is simple- Japan is China 'notional' enemy.

Interesting read, but surely you know that China has had fighting break out in many of its border areas, Mongol, India, several bouts with Vietnam & of course in the 50s with the Koreas.

Yes indeed. I am aware of these conflicts and wars. I do not know whether are you aware that when China invaded (I used hard word "invaded") in 1978. I remembered that the mood in South East Asia was "happy to glad" to see PLA invaded Vietnam.

PRC invaded and withdrew and it left the boundaries intact.

They were very clear to use "invasion and punishment" and withdrew after they met their target.

As for India, the flash point was Kashmir which was then claimed by India, Pakistan and PRC. Now three countries have their own territory demarcated in Kashmir. PRC still have other territory claims with India but you can see so far no arm conflict.

I do not recall Mongol conflict. So I shall not say anything here.

As for Korea conflict, it is more of idealogical war than territory dispute.

I recognize that memories may be long, but have a hard time believing that the ASEAN countries are more afraid of Japan or the West than of the PRC.

This is very easy. Assuming you are a native and have a neighbour who is a locally born and bred Chinese family. They play with your children, eat with you, go to the same school with you. They adopt and understand your culture, speak your langauge and may even adapt to your faith.

Their ancestors never sent war ships to your shore forcefully. Meddle with your life or government. Telling you what you should do or not do. Live harmoniously and peacefully with you.

Now ask yourself this question. Who will the natives trust?

This is the reason why PRC is never worried that Singapore houses the US' biggest fleet and war planes (outside Japan). They never interfere with the local governments policies. Never take sides should there be any conflicts between the locally bred chinese and the natives (like the May 1998 incidents in Indonesia). Never stir-up the hornet nests like the Spartley or Parcel islands.

Japan after the WWII has been trying very hard in south east asia trying to erase the painful memories by involving itself in the development of these countries. They set up the Asia Development Bank, lend money to the local government at very low interest or no interest at all to enable the local government to improve the local lives.

But one mistake they made gravely is that the Japanese government official sent to these countries did not assimilate themselves into the local culture. The Japanese officials and families still stick and mixed around amongst themselves. Unlike the Wests, this area they fared better, by mixing themselves well with the natives.

The natives have difficulties communicating with the Japanese. The Japanese do not like to engage in the conversation which I think is the inability to speak the native's language or very little English.

PRC government have the hell of advantage as the locally bred and born chinese are able to communicate in Mandarin albeit funny accent and poor Mandarin. The PRC officials take every step to go down to the grasroot level. They side-step very carefully so as not to be seen as interfering the policies of the host country.

So you can see why when Japan and China are in verbal engagement. Not much South East Asia countries speak for Japan. I can say that Beijing has a very big presence in South East Asia but not influence.

Beijing, unlike Tokyo, have a very long term plan. One is energy procurement.

Tokyo's import of oil from Middle East passes through Strait of Melaka (Malacca) which is very long, narrow and congested. Any possibility of shutting down will cause heavy bluise to Japan's economic.

Beijing have maintained a good relationship with Russia and its western boundaries neigbhours. They even help the Myanmar in developing the country infrastructures which the West ties assistance with democracy or polical freedom. Just ask yourself, if you already have no food to eat, which thing is immediate in your mind? Food or democracy?

In order to rely less on the Strait of Melaka, Beijing (which was reported) will build a oil pipe line from Yunan to Andaman Sea. This will ensure a continue supply of oil should the Strait of Malacca shut down due to whatsoever reason.

A lot of West believe that the 60s Cultural Revolution had erased off its history. Contrary to that, a short 10 years of Cultural Revolution did not erase 5,000 years of Chinese history. In fact, the Chinese took history as an important part of their culture as they constantly study the history (be it theirs, Japan, the West or African) to enable them to avoid the repeat of others history in their country.

You can now see why the Beijing government is strongly resisting the West especially US' pressure to raise the RMB. They are trying to avoid Japan's history when they raised the Yen in 1985 which subsequently caused the lost decade.

People in ASEAN do not wish to see trouble happened in China as it will spill over to them. There is a local saying in Malaysia, "When elephants make love, the surrounding ants will suffer".

Beijing has undone 10 years worth of confidence-building measures in the past few months. Who in the region wants to engage Beijing bilaterally now? Big mistake.

ASEAN as a whole do not really worry that China once it raises to power will eventually become a big bully.

It has been proven historically by the people of China when they were very strong and powerful, especially during its Tang and Ming dynasties,that they did not go to other people's land and seize forcefully. Unlike the Japanese and the West which went on to colonise most of the south east asia in the 15th to 20th centuries.

In ASEAN, most of the economic powers are controlled by the locally born and bred Chinese who have mostly assimilated into respective local societies. The natives of South East Asia have also gotten used when dealing with the Chinese. A great mutual understanding in terms of cutural and language is forged. Inter marriage happened between them. Despite all these and even though the Chinese have been settled in SEA for closed to two to three hundred years, there are and will still have some misunderstandings between the locally born Chinese and the natives. You can see the conflict between the Chinese and the local in Indonesia which happened in May 1998 which subsequently led to the downfall of Suharto.

In actual fact, people in ASEAN still fear the Japanese and the West as historically they have proven to be brutual and unkind. Hence no matter how hard the Japanese and the West try, there is still a mistrust deep deep inside the hearts of the people of ASEAN. I believe it will take time to heal.

What happened between China and Japan, again, is historical. Never in China's past history that Japan is so much dislike by the Chinese. Just take a peek at any of the Chinese education text book you will know why I said so. A recent survey done in China, although most of the Chinese youths have good feeling about the Japanese, this good feeling can easily change course if any event happens between them. Just like the present one.

For China, it needs Japan to divert its domestic problem and uses Japan as a notional enermy to raise patrotism and nationalism amongst the Chinese people. On the other hand, China also needs Japan in areas of economical growth, polution and technologies. With China getting stronger each day, the reliance of Japan dwindles. I believe Japan do not have a team of good experts to advise its Government on how to handle the Chinese Government and evetually come out with a long term map plan.

The main doctrine of the Communist is - have gun will travel. Please do not mix up Communist doctrine with Chinese people thinking. People in Thailand, Malaysia and the Phillippines have encountered the Communists insurgencies. Never did the natives take it on the local Chinese and equate them as Communists.

With the PLA now also deeply involved in commercial areas, such doctrine, may still stand but have greatly water-down as the PLA's generals now have commercial interest to think twice before pulling the trigger.