alceste comments

Posted in: Caught off-guard by scant testing, Japan battered by COVID winter See in context

Without the clear subsequent course of action or support for people testing positive (PCR, at around 70% accuracy), a mass testing blitz ends up being futile or even counter-productive.

RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 are known to be highly specific (ranging from 92% to 100%) and moderately sensitive (ranging from 68% to 100%). (1)

When interpreting results of a RT-PCR test for COVID-19, clinicians do not worry about false positive results as the test is highly specific, but they worry about false negative results since the test is only moderately sensitive.

If the pre-test probability is high (due to high local prevalence values, potential exposure to the virus, existence of symptoms, etc.), a negative RT-PCR test result is not enough to rule out infection, on the other hand, a positive RT-PCR test result is most likely correct.

(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#PCR-based_test

(2) Interpreting a covid-19 test result

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1808

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Posted in: Pfizer files request for COVID-19 vaccine approval in Japan See in context

And with the Health Minister saying the one going around is a variant, wouldn't that make the current vaccine,null and void?

VUI-202012/01 variant reported in UK is defined by a set of multiple mutations, most significantly by a spike mutation (N501Y) in the receptor binding domain and a couple of deletions, which may increase affinity of the virus to human ACE2 receptor. (1,2,*3)

At this stage, it is not known if VUI-202012/01 variant is responsible for the sharp increase in the number of cases, but one expects the virus to become more infectious and less lethal under evolutionary stress and more stable variants will emerge in time.

Since approved SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are targeting multiple epitopes on the spike protein, it is highly unlikely that VUI-202012/01 variant will cause a vaccine escape.

*1) https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

*2) https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-new-variant-of-sars-cov-2/?cli_action=1608000129.559

*3) https://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1338610126291349508

-5 ( +7 / -12 )

Posted in: Man in 50s with mild COVID-19 found dead in quarantine hotel room in Kanagawa See in context

It might be a case of silent hypoxemia (1) where a COVID-19 patient with mild symptoms may exhibit very low oxygen levels without any dyspnea.

Quoting from NHK site (2):

From the beginning, blood oxygen concentration of the men was low, and it was 86% in the morning of the 11th, which was a figure that required medical examination, but because he said that he was not suffocating, he was followed up but he did not have a medical examination.

(1) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7397783/

(2) https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20201212/k10012761201000.html

8 ( +8 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan struggles to cope with surge in virus infections See in context

A few years ago, I had influenza C with the highest fever ever in my life.

...

Since that I am taking every year my influenza vaccine and since then I am fine.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/types.htm

One influenza A(H1N1), one influenza A(H3N2), and one or two influenza B viruses (depending on the vaccine) are included in each season’s influenza vaccines.

Seasonal flu vaccines do not protect against influenza C or D viruses.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports record high 602 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,969 See in context

Correction:

37 people in their 60s, 28 people in their 70s, 28 people in their 80s, and 7 people in their 90s.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports record high 602 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,969 See in context

By age group, the highest number of cases were people in their 30s (137), followed by 135 in their 20s, 111 in their 40s and 86 in their 50s.

37 people in their 60s, 28 people in their 80s, 28 people in their 80s, and 7 people in their 90s.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 561 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,678 See in context

And what of the age range of those hospitalised?

Some information on demographics of critically ill patients is available at this page.

https://www.fukushihoken.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/iryo/kansen/monitoring.html

As of November 25, the number of severely ill patients was 54, and the breakdown by age group was 2 in their 40s, 9 in their 50s, 10 in their 60s, 22 in their 70s, and 11 in their 80s. By gender, there were 44 males and 10 females.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports record high 570 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,524 See in context

Covid19 and influenza are both coronaviruses, so nothing surprising here.

SARS-CoV-2 belongs to Coronaviridae family and it is a positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus (Baltimore Group IV).

Influenza virus belongs to Orthomyxoviridae family and it is a single-stranded negative-sense RNA virus (Baltimore Group V).

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan to test 15,000 people for coronavirus antibodies by end of year See in context

Recently Slovakia (GDP rank: 60th) tested 3.6 million of the country's 5.4 million population in a week or so.

15,000 people is a ridiculous number for world's third-largest economy.

10 ( +10 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 391 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,165 See in context

A case does not mean one is sick. It doesn't even mean one is infected.

Since when SARS-CoV-2 is classified as resident flora in Homo sapiens?

8 ( +9 / -1 )

Posted in: 84% concerned about record coronavirus cases in Japan: poll See in context

how many positiv (sic) cases, how many deaths...they completely lost interest.

Is it good or not?

It is definitely good for the virus.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

Posted in: Japan not in situation to declare state of emergency over COVID-19, Suga says See in context

People will get pneonia (sic) from not being able to release bacteria from their system and rebreathing the same bacteria over and over again.

Never take medical advice from someone who cannot spell pneumonia correctly.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

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