Take our user survey and make your voice heard.

alsdia comments

Posted in: Japan reports record 795 new daily virus cases amid resurgence See in context

@Hervé L'Eisa

Again, the numbers are a smokescreen. The real numbers of those who have it or have already had it and recovered would be magnitudes higher if widespread testing were actually available.

Totally agree with you. In Tokyo we need to wait around 10 DAYS to reach the same number of tests New York does in ONE DAY. Compare NYC daily tests

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

around 35000 tests per day compared to Tokyo 3500 tests per day.

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/cards/number-of-tested/

200 new cases with 3500 tests, so what if Tokyo did 35000 tests per day? Will we find 2000 new cases? Not impossible. I would bet highly probable.

If a Tokyo citizen wishes to be tested, he/she should be allowed to do it in a safe and fast way. And free of charge. Technologies are there, for example https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-research/australian-researchers-invent-20-minute-coronavirus-blood-test-idUSKCN24I0OR

in 20 minutes you can get the results. Not 3 days... There are even new tests using your breath to detect the virus, like this one https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/in-south-africa-covid-19-breath-test-trial-set-for-june-67631

not even blood involved, takes 5 minutes. Instead of putting money in Abe Masks and Abe Travels, why not putting the money into these new kind of tests techniques and software tracing technologies, so that everyone can work and travel safely while waiting for the vaccine solution.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 168 new coronavirus cases Monday See in context

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government on Monday reported 168 new cases of coronavirus, down 20 from 188 on Sunday

of coarse when you test less the previous day...

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/cards/number-of-tested/

...you will report less cases the following day. As Trump says, if you test less, numbers will look nice. And if it is all you care about, looking nice on the news, that's the way to go. Abe, Bolsonaro, Trump, what a trio! They should GO TO Travel together, singing songs surrounded by the night club girls that on paper they condemn so much.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan reports over 600 cases on Thursday; 286 in Tokyo See in context

sorry for the line 60029.42.618 = 46181 cases, this blog convert the * sign into italic

it meant 600x29.4x2.618 = 46181 = number of cases in Japan IF Japan had the same population of the USA, and IF Japan did the same number of tests every 1 M pop like the USA.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan reports over 600 cases on Thursday; 286 in Tokyo See in context

I'll trade you our (America's) 70,000+ cases for your 600 cases.

ah one more point to make the trade even more fair. The populations of US and Japan are different in numbers. we need to weight the populations! Let's do a little more math.

US population = 331,097,557

Japan population = 126,455,870

US/Japan population ratio = 331,097,557/126,455,870 = 2.618

So if Japan had the same population of the USA, and if Japan did the same number of tests per 1 million population as the USA the total number of new daily cases in Japan would be :

60029.42.618 = 46181 cases

where 29.4 = (US tests per 1Mpop) / (JP tests per 1Mpop)

and 2.618 = US population / JP population

Therefore the real trade becomes

your (America's) 70,000+ cases for Japan 46181 cases

Still convenient but far from being optimal.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan reports over 600 cases on Thursday; 286 in Tokyo See in context

I'll trade you our (America's) 70,000+ cases for your 600 cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

(America's) 145,749 Tests/1M pop Japan 4,952 Tests/1M pop.

US is testing 145,749/4,952 = 29,4 more times than Japan.

If Japan tested 29,4 more, those 600 cases could become 600*29.4 = 17640

So a more fair trade would be (America's) 70000+ for 17000+ cases, still a good trade, but not an excellent trade. To do an excellent trade I would go for New Zealand, much more transparent, with numbers not modelled by the will to save short term economic interests.

It is extremely difficult to be a politician in these hard times. To do the balance between economy and public health is almost mission impossible. But: you could at least honestly change your plans if the situation changes. you should be flexible. Cases are rising? So let's postpone the Go To Travel campaign. Just a message by Abe san, "sorry, we were not expecting those rising cases, we will postpone the go to travel campaign, instead we will increase the number of tests, and allow everyone that want to be tested to do it, for free. We won't declare national emergency again, but we will raise by 30 times the number of daily tests, and make those tests free for all"

That would be a speech I would like to hear, that would be a politician that does not hide his head under the sand, a politician that wants honestly to assess the situation, and at the same time protect the economy. By hiding the true numbers with limited tests like Trump suggests, the problem does not go away. The problem will just last longer.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Go To travel campaign thrown into disarray after minister's remarks See in context

I fear it will end up in a "GO TO... Hospital" campaign.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan reports over 600 cases on Thursday; 286 in Tokyo See in context

I have found an answer here

http://www.tools4dev.org/resources/how-to-choose-a-sample-size/

A good maximum sample size is usually 10% as long as it does not exceed 1000

A good maximum sample size is usually around 10% of the population, as long as this does not exceed 1000. For example, in a population of 5000, 10% would be 500. In a population of 200,000, 10% would be 20,000. This exceeds 1000, so in this case the maximum would be 1000.

Even in a population of 200,000, sampling 1000 people will normally give a fairly accurate result. Sampling more than 1000 people won’t add much to the accuracy given the extra time and money it would cost.

So yes it seems that the 0.1% antibodies result from the government and the estimation of a total of 14,000,000x 0.1 /100 = 14000 cases, at least until June, seems more accurate.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan reports over 600 cases on Thursday; 286 in Tokyo See in context

oh my bad, I copy pasted the wrong number I needed to write

Softbank is not random but is done on a sample that is 40000/2000 = 20 bigger than the random sample of the government.

Yes so my question is 20 times bigger sample better than a much smaller random sample?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan reports over 600 cases on Thursday; 286 in Tokyo See in context

I am not a statistician, so my analysis may not be rigorous but someone hopefully can bring more insights. The random test sample was very different and much smaller to the Softbank sample:

1) the random test was held by health ministry on less than 2000 people = 0.1 had corona antibodies = 14000 cases in Tokyo

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/16/national/science-health/tokyo-coronavirus-antibodies/

Only 0.1 percent of people in Tokyo tested positive for antibodies against the coronavirus, a survey conducted by the health ministry found Tuesday, indicating the spread of the virus in Japan’s capital remains limited, even though the number of cases may be higher than those already found. The survey involved 1,971 participants in Tokyo.

2) Softbank test was on 40000 people = 0.43 had corona antibodies = (if extrapolate maybe uncorrectly to Tokto population) = 14000000x0.43/100 = 60200cases

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/11/national/death-toll-coronavirus/#.XxD8EPP7RRZ

An antibody test by SoftBank Group on 40,000 employees and families and medical workers found 191 cases, for a positive test rate of 0.43 percent

Softbank is not random but is done on a sample that is 40000/2000 = 2000 bigger than the random sample of the government. Statistically which is more significant according to you? Is a smaller randon sample of 2000 still more representative than a 40000 sample of Softbank (where probably inside there are many kind of jobs, from cleaner to engineer, customer service, etc)?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan reports over 600 cases on Thursday; 286 in Tokyo See in context

@ i@n

Shouldn't you use the test results of the random testing of the population at large

Yes, thank you for pointing that out. Using Softbank employees (they probably are more in contact with customers in shops, offices) statistically cannot represent the whole population. It was just an attempt to get an order of magnitude of what the numbers in Japan would be if extensive testing was allowed.

I have found also this link that I think is more random testing:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/16/national/science-health/tokyo-coronavirus-antibodies/

it says Tokyo has 0.1% rate of virus antibodies

Tokyo population is around 14milion = therefore 14,000,000x 0.1 /100 = 14000 cases.

This number would be less dramatic that my previous computation. So it would mean that around 14000 - 8,640 = 5360 cases go undetected.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan reports over 600 cases on Thursday; 286 in Tokyo See in context

sorry bad editing of the multiplication signs in my previous comment here's better written:

Covid19 cases in Japan = 0.43x0.01xJapanPopulation = 0.43x0.01x126,500,000 = 543,950

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan reports over 600 cases on Thursday; 286 in Tokyo See in context

@KnowBetter

If you were to increase Japan's testing rate to match Canada's numbers per million, at the current country wide 3.836% testing positive of Japan, you would be expected to see Japan's numbers for confirmed cases at least around 429,466. That number wouldn't be a stretch when you factor in all the numbers. The only reason we don't see those numbers is due to the low testing rate.

Another source that confirms your estimation is the following

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/11/national/death-toll-coronavirus/#.XxD8EPP7RRZ

An antibody test by SoftBank Group on 40,000 employees and families and medical workers found 191 cases, for a positive test rate of 0.43 percent

In Japan, this is the largest sample test to my knowledge until now. Therefore, let's do the math:

Covid19 cases in Japan = 0.430.01JapanPopulation = 0.430.01126,500,000= 543,950

 that is on the same order of magnitude of your 429,466, around half million people

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo's daily coronavirus infections hit new record of 243 See in context

@drlucifer

The mortality rate is not high in Africa as well so what is the reason by our genius professor?

This virus has shown that hygiene is not an issue but rather the healthiness of the infected individual.

I agree with you. Kodama sensei idea is not a theory that can explain the mortality rate numbers worldwide. It is still an hypothesis under scientific investigation. In Africa maybe the low mortality rate it is due to a combination of different factors like: 

1) hotter temperatures

2) the very young population (https://www.populationpyramid.net/africa/2019/) 30% of the African population is under 24 years old, only 2.4% is over 65 years old; the younger the population, the higher the probability of healthiness.

3) maybe other differences in the immune system?

4) few testing facilities

I found Kodama sensei thesis interesting because when I was looking at the different situation between my hometown (Milano) in full lockdown and Tokyo, where almost everything was business as usual, I could not answer the question: how is it possible that 2 nations with similar advanced economies, similar health systems, similar climate, and similar population pyramid (in Italy we have many seniors like Japan too, 10% are over 65y) have so striking different numbers of cases and deaths?

I was not convinced by Taro Aso's "Japan higher mindo" explanation. It is true, before the pandemic we Italians did not have the culture of wearing a mask during flu season. That may have played some role. Add to that the different testing policy (Italy's Tests/1M pop 96836, Japan's Tests/1M pop 4273 source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). Still, is that all?

Kodama's suggestion that exists something more hidden, more complex, maybe some differences at DNA and immune system level linked to the different immunologic histories of the populations, I think it is a road interesting to investigate.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo's daily coronavirus infections hit new record of 243 See in context

@vanityofvanities

his name is professor Tatsuhiko Kodama. He provides an interesting answer to why in East Asia, in general, despite of doing or not doing lockdowns, doing many or few tests, the mortality rate is low:

https://www.dw.com/en/why-does-coronavirus-kill-fewer-people-in-east-asia/a-53781108

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

Tokyo University professor Tatsuhiko Kodama - who studies how Japanese patients react to the virus - believes Japan may have had Covid before. Not Covid-19, but something similar that could have left behind "historical immunity".

This is how he explains it: When a virus enters the human body, the immune system produces antibodies that attack the invading pathogen.

There are two types of antibody - IGM and IGG. How they respond can show whether someone has been exposed to the virus before, or something similar.

"In a primary (novel) viral infection the IGM response usually comes first," he tells me. "Then the IGG response appears later. But in secondary cases (previous exposure) the lymphocyte already has memory, and so only the IGG response increases rapidly."

So, what happened with his patients?

"When we looked at the tests we were astonished... in all patients the IGG response came quickly, and the IGM response was later and weak. It looked like they had been previously exposed to a very similar virus."

He thinks it is possible a Sars-like virus has circulated in the region before, which may account for the low death rate, not just in Japan, but in much of China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South East Asia.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Recent Comments

Popular

Articles, Offers & Useful Resources

A mix of what's trending on our other sites


©2024 GPlusMedia Inc.