bluesky.greentrees comments

Nothing will change in Japan politics. LDP will remain in power. "Old men club" will rule even if a fresh younger face is the front. Factions & backroom kingmakers rule. It's cultural. Even during Koizumi days thing remain about the same even with so much "reform' talks & excitment.

If Taro agrees, he will win.

Abe & Taro, as kingmakers will determine the next PM or the popularity of the candidate from voters?

The way it's going more likely kingmakers determine. In Japan, not much will change. Status quo and bureaucrats will call the shot.

No different in essence who is elected PM or LDP head. Japan is run by powerful bureaucrats & dictated Japanese social, cultural norms imbedded in the system. Even in out of normal situation, Japan will still likely do the usual as politicians & bureaucrats are not incentivized to really solve problems but maintain status quo. It's a "old men, big boys network" behind the scene power structure, where everyone has it's place.

Research? What research. Stop the hypocrisy. Its about the "sperm".

Whale "sperm" end up at high-end sushi bars & restaurants as a delicacy.

As for whale meat, not popular; most probably ended up as waste. 

And for sushi lovers, most ate the "sperm" because of Omakase of the chefs, not because customers order the "sperm". Its another of the Japanese quirks.

As the population aged rapidly, many of the old salaried men are tired & disinterested, so from a social angle more and more of such cases will appear. The Japanese "craftsmen" are being eroded both by realities of age and changing attitude among the young.

Averaging down on a bad position using other people money.

US branding NK a terrorist country and now NK firing another missile. And South Korea firing missiles. And more sanctions from Japan, USA, etc.

So there will be real war & fighting.

End result: many common people of various nations will be harmed & killed & injured, while politicians are safe & sound.

Why should a high savings country with and old, aging declining population, with highly expensive property prices in big cities (Tokyo & Osaka where most people live) aim for 2% inflation?

Isn't this objective plain stupidity?

The people will benefit most if the rate of inflation is zero, or very mild deflation where their purchasing power is retained, and not an artificially conceived inflation and encouraging the highly indebted government to waste more funds in wasteful projects and accumulate even more debts to bankrupt the nation & citizens.

BOJ should think deeply and not follow the standard prescribed formula which is misplaced for Japanese conditions.

An artificial stock & property bubble (celebration now just like in the 1980s) created by current policy when burst will ensure Japanese economy & markets probably will not recover for another 25 years or longer. (Longer & worse than the bursting of the 1980s bubble when population was much younger).

For 70 years Japanese leaders have not been sincere in spirit about the extreme atrocities they had committed on Asians. Japanese value & promote sincerity among themselves but not when they were in the wrong to non-Japanese during the wars. Japan put up apologies only in form but not in spirit. And foreigners especially Asians can see through it. The yearly visits to Yasukuni shrine by national leaders is a good example of this internal language among themselves of those "glorious" imperial days. On the other hand they keep reminding the world of their sufferings from the atomic bombs.

This contradiction makes many who suffered so much during the wars angry & upset about the hypocrisy of the leaders.

Son's Waterloo maybe Uber.

Its only right that BIG TECH pay taxes according to the estimated revenues, sales or users base as per each country or an average system at maybe a flat tax of 20% of estimated profits. It is ridiculous that average Joes are paying taxes and squeezed at every turn including GST, while BIG TECH are having a free ride on everyone and accumulating 100s of billions every year.

It's a shame that EU, USA, etc are still not doing anything effective on these OCTOPUSSES.

BOJ type of 2% inflation was not achieved.

But strangely consumers in big cities like Tokyo & Osaka costs of living have went much higher in past few years:

Food package has got smaller & prices are higher.

Services prices like delivery, postage, insurance are higher.

Rental costs of apartments have went up much.

Property prices  have rocketed.

Education costs are higher.

Please ask Kuroda if he is a married salary man with a child what costs have not gone up in Tokyo & Osaka?

Don't expect old aging people to keep running marathon. The euphoria will be short-lived.

Softbank has in recent years over-extended itself. Many of its new investments will prove to be duds like Uber unlike the Softbank of old that got into Alibaba 20 yrs ago. The quality now is highly questionable. Throwing money indiscriminately will not get good returns for investors in the Vision Fund. We are witnessing a peak bubble in Tech, which will burst soon.

"Japan’s overall residential property price index rose by 4.7% (4.2% inflation-adjusted) in January 2017 from the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT). Nationwide, condominium prices were up by 5.2%, detached house prices increased 2.7% and residential land prices rose by 4.8% over the same period."

These are average numbers, in Tokyo & Osaka property prices have been up sharply in past few years. Kuroda policies have caused sharp asset inflation in Tokyo & Osaka and hurt the finances especially of the young & young families.

Past 2 years a bubble in big cap tech stocks has been building rapidly especially in 2017. ETFs & retail investors have been allocating a disproportionate amount to the FAANG stocks and others like Softbank, etc. Though these big stocks have earnings, there PE ratios are too high based on current very high earnings and most optimistic projections that are not sustainable. Others like Uber, etc are raising tons of money with negative profits. Even tiny Singapore Razer is making its founder a billionaire, and the firm is making little profits. Soon something nasty is going to happen. Just some profit taking by big investors may cause a significant down move in the Tech area.

How ironical? Japan has one of the most closed trading system in the developed world eg it's agriculture sector & distribution network.

It's obvious with the crazy printing of money by BOJ, and the buying of bonds & stocks the following had happened:

Bond prices rise.

Stock prices rise.

Land in big cities rise.

Costs of living rise.

All happening in a fast aging & declining population demographics, which means:

Only a very small percentage of the population, the super-rich will benefit.

Salary-men will be suffering more, as costs (housing, food, etc) up but wages up little.

The young & young families in the big cities will be especially hurt as housing & services costs continue to outpaced their increase in income.

It is an unsustainable bubble in bonds, stock & land prices relative to the demographics.

It also result in complacency in the government and encourages irresponsible prolific spending, raising the debts of the country.  Basically it is a massive real transfer of wealth from the vast population to the super-rich and government.

NIKKEI BUBBLE, BUBBLE! Feed on it guys. Stock bubble with an old aging population and record high debts well done. Indeed unconventional. It sure will outdo the burst in 1990 when the economy was strong and population much younger and debt level much lower. Kuroda well done!!!

Otemachi is crazy now. 25 years high. It's raining money. Take out the champagne!

Bloomberg: "Trump is leaving Japan empty handed on trade".

Japan continues to win; President Trump what's up, falling into Japan evasive trick again?

The golf game from Abe is not worth it, compare to the needed Yen appreciation & tens of billions in purchase of American goods.

Trump’s said: “You look at what China’s doing, you look at what Japan has done over the years. ... they play the money market, they play the devaluation market and we sit there like a bunch of dummies.”

Trump now is quiet; he prefers GOLF.

For those who make money in Japan, enjoy it while it lasts. Don't forget strategically it is still a rally in a setting Sun.

GPIF and other Japanese funds are holding and managing Japanese savers savings. So Japanese government debts are funded by Japanese savings. Without these savings (gross Yen 1,400 trillion), the Japanese government (gross debt Yen 1,100 trillion)  would be near bankruptcy. These savings have allowed and maintained credibility to the system. Enter BOJ in the past 5 years, effectively buying up 40% of JGB government debts. Effectively monetizing the government debts. Without the savers' savings what BOJ did would have caused credibility to be quickly eroded, and interest rates would have jumped and bankrupt Japan as financing costs would have rocketed. Nevertheless, this arrangement has encouraged the LDP & MOF & BOJ to become complacent and spend more with bigger and bigger government spending. Once government debts are above savers savings, the scheme will collapse and Japan will become a banana republic. With an old & aging population, the savings have to decline & accelerate, while spending continues upward, the crossing point will arrive. Is not if but when?

As for trade US is basically not competitive in Japan unless Dollar/Yen is at 90 and Japanese "cultural & administrative" barriers are lifted. BOJ has been weakening the Yen since Kuroda appointment. Japan is still a one-trick pony for its exporters.

So Aso has let the cat out of the bag; it's about BOJ getting Dollar/Yen from 80 to 114 so that Japanese exporters can win again. It's about beggar thy neighbor policy via the exchange rate.

Trump & Abe combination is highly volatile & dangerous; the probability of a war, a nuclear war with NK is increasing. Japanese citizens need to think about the consequences. Will the missiles really be fired to continental USA or actually more easily into Tokyo, Osaka & Soeul and achieved the same purpose for NK? It will means more than 10 million death within a few days.

This is not a simple or imagined matter. Have politicians & policy makers think through the consequences?

Trump wrong focus of golf over Dollar/Yen & BOJ monetary policy with Abe; the big trade deficit with Japan is growing again.

Trump wrong focus of NK over Dollar/Yuan with Xi; Xi can take care of Boy Kim, watch & narrow the huge trade deficit.

Abe has been milking the NK issues for his personal agenda, and making NK a worst enemy of Japan without achieving anything positive for the abductees families. Koizumi had done what was right against the tide; contact, connect, negotiate, and some settlement and released of abductees.