Chris Dhahran comments

@Ashley Shiba

Canada has a death rate of 224 per million while Japan has a death rate of 8 per million. Reducing death is the goal, not testing. Reducing death means reducing spread and Japan has been far more successful than Canada and most other Western countries. Japanese are still wearing masks and distancing. That has been very effective.

"Japanese people hear lock down is over they compute it as the virus is over and go on as normal gathering in clusters such as the zoo with the pandas exhibit."

Well God forbid people have some quality of life. They should all be shivering in fear in their homes not out getting some enjoyment out of their lives. I mentioned in an earlier post the number of traffic deaths in almost every East Asian country is higher, sometimes 10 to 20 times higher than the rate of COvid-19 deaths. But when it comes to choosing a better quality of life over being safe from an automobile accident most people choose the risk. In fact, in any country the risk of a young person dying from an automobile accident is far higher than dying from covid-19. Not only is probability of death low for most people, you still have to contract the virus and recent anti-body tests in Tokyo show that less than 1% of the population ever got the virus.

@girl_in_tokyo

First, your math is wrong. Most of the deaths have already happened. Look at worldmeter and you can see the death curves are declining. Secondly, you don;t know anything about me. I have been sending money to people I know in South East Asia that are close to starving because these criminal lockdowns have destroyed their jobs and their lives. What have you done?

The virus has a 0.5% to 0.2% fatality rate. Much less than originally feared. Is that bad news for you? Do you have any numbers to contradict what I submitted? Moral outrage is normally used to cover-up you have no facts on your side. Do you have any?

@cracaphat

"A bit melodramatic". You are being too kind. It is a falsehood. On the Diamond princess with a very susceptible population 740 out of 3,700 people got the virus. We don't know if that was from 1 person or more than 1 (more likely).

@borcht

"Oh, but don’t worry; it’s just a bad cold." That was not said or implied and you are being disingenuous by claiming that was suggested. The numbers are clear: Covid-19 is worse than the 2018 flu and not as bad as the 1958 and 1968 flu. That is exactly what the numbers say. Yet the reaction in 1968 and 1958 was not as drastic.

Medical personal received huge viral loads, 10 to 20 times more than the average case and this is what caused a high death rate. Hospitals were overwhelmed in only a few places and only for a short time (at the peak). In 2018 in Italy the flu killed over 24,000 people (covid-19 is 34,000) and also overwhelmed some hospitals.

@waaso

Epidemiologists have been pretty wrong all along. Many different opinions. And as an epidemiologist you are safer if you overestimate death than underestimate. Look at the diamond princess. That is pretty revealing. Not a 70% spread. 90% of people who get the virus have mild or no symptoms at all. That is known. Also known I the death rate is already less than half of what it was in late April. Deaths are falling off.

By the way your math is wrong 0.02% death rate is equal to 0.0002x5,250 (million) = 1.05million. 0.2% death rate would be 10.5 million, but again 70% are not getting the virus.

@Kaminokaze

Incorrect posting. The number of deaths per day in the world peaked in late April. The numbers of deaths per day now are less than half. No exponential growth. Go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and look at the log graphs. Death rate is going down.

@Vinke

Flu has a wide range year by year from very deadly to mild. I posted the numbers and they are what they are. I compared to flu bad years and good years.

"I also detest this attitude that "it's only dangerous if your old or have pre-existing conditions","

I think what you detest is that your unsupported narrative that this is so deadly and terrible has been blown away; that someone else dare ask questions and even bring data into the fray that you can't deal with. Do you have any data to back up your beliefs or can you only sink to moral outrage, the last desperate move of someone who cannot prove his point.

The virus is not that deadly. There have been many anti-body studies showing the real fatality rate is lower than 0.5%. You are at risk if you are over 65, and/or have pre-existing conditions. Less than 1,000 have died in Japan. The fear is completely overblown.

German study on actual fatality rate, about 0.38%:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMWdPRhu_p8

1968 - Over 1 million dead in the world from flu; 2 million if normalized to 2020

1958 -- Over 1 million dead from flu; 2.3 million if normalized to 202

2018 -- 450,000 dead from flu

2020 -- 480,000 dead from covid-19

Worse than 2018; in the end probably same or less deadly than 1958 and 1968. Yet, no lockdowns in 1958 or 1968, with all the destroyed economies and destroyed quality of life.

In East Asia almost every country has more traffic deaths per year than covid deaths. Take Philippines -- 1,000 covid-19 deaths, average age 75; 10,000 traffic deaths average age under 30. It's time to start putting things in the proper perspective.

Completely idiotic. 

Why don’t they have these people hose themselves down with Lysol every 2 hours and wear spacesuits too! 

In a population of 125 million less than 1000 in Japan have died. There are now a trickle of new cases daily. There are no deaths in Vietnam in over 300 cases and no new cases for over 40 days. The virus worldwide has killed about as many as the 2018. Estimates based on antibody tests and other case studies show an overall real fatality rate of less than 0.5% to 0.2%. The original estimates from people like Niel Furgeson who made totally incorrect assumptions in his models (that were not peer reviewed, or had made one accurate prediction) were off by a factor of 10 or more. 90% of the fatalities are over 65 and 95% plus have pre-existing health conditions. This is not the plague.  People have been scared to death by faulty modeling and sensationalist media. When is intelligence and rationality going to return?