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David Van Cleef comments

Posted in: Tokyo reports 29 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 314 See in context

The actual number does not matter, what matters is the percentage of positive results

Are these 29 cases from 30 tests, or 30000 tests? 

This is based on the results of 7822, for a positivity rate of 0.37%.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 29 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 314 See in context

With small numbers relatively large variances day to day are expected. The more relevant figure to look at is the 7-day average, which smooths out such things.

14 ( +14 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 32 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 285 See in context

For the not-enough-testing camp, this figure is based off of 3851 tests, for a positivity rate of 0.83%

2 ( +10 / -8 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 26 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 325 See in context

No report of PCR tests conducted.

That figure of 26 is based on the results of 5627 cases, or a positivity rate of 0.46%. Too all the people complaining about too few tests: to what percent do you want to test down to 0.1? 0.01? The WHO says that 3-12% positivity rate is an indication of sufficient testing.

Testing source: https://catalog.data.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/dataset/t000010d0000000086

WHO recommendation: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-full-30mar2020.pdf

4 ( +9 / -5 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 40 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 429 See in context

So the ratio of daily infections to (at-the-moment) hospitalization is about 1 to 1…?

Sounds fishy.

Not particularly, that figure is the number of people requiring a ventilator or ECMO, not the total number hospitalized. And most people in that situation require it for up to 14 days.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 40 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 429 See in context

I wonder how many tests were taken over the last 24 hours to have such an amazingly low number?

According to Tokyo Metro Government figures, 4032, yielding an approximately a 1% positive rate, well under the level that WHO considers appropriate testing.

Source: https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/cards/number-of-tested

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

Posted in: FDA panel endorses lower-dose Moderna COVID shot for booster See in context

Given that Japan has gone 100% all-in with Pfizer for booster shots I fail to see why this is relevant news for JT.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Posted in: Japan to fully lift state of emergency measures this week See in context

Anyone going to raise the issue that these plastic dividers do more harm than good? 

How?

There have been some limited studies showing any benefit they give in stopping particles directly is outweighed by their detrimental effect on being able to ventilate air quickly. You get dead zones where air is not circulated.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Posted in: Japan orders 150 million doses of Novavax COVID vaccine See in context

48% are fully vaccinated, not 58%. Last Wednesday it was 46%.

If you read carefully, he said 58% of the eligible population, not the overall population. There are approximately 11 million children under 12 that are not eligible for vaccination at this time.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Posted in: Suspect in Tokyo subway station acid attack arrested in Okinawa See in context

6 months to heal? I don't think anyone can ever 'heal' from sulfuric acid. Nasty.

I was burned on the chest with concentrated H2SO4 when working at a chemical plant in my younger days.

Inside of a year there was no visible scarring.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Posted in: Japan to evacuate embassy in Kabul See in context

Point is pretty much moot now, there's shooting around the airport and all non-military flights have stopped operating. Either the embassy staff are out by this point or they're going to have to clench their nethers and hunker down for a while.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: I want the government to seriously consider legal measures, including lockdown-like restrictions on movements. See in context

The government certainly does have some legal ability to restrict citizens' movements, as evidenced by the Fukushima exclusion zones.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Posted in: Japan starts accepting applications for 'vaccine passports' See in context

My ward (Edogawa) is ONLY accepting the applications by postal mail. No walk-ins.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Posted in: Lack of parental knowledge about paperwork behind stateless children in Japan See in context

A stateless child born in Japan is actually eligible for an easier expedited naturalization process as early as age 3 (its a clause right in Japan's nationality law). I wonder how many of these are intentionally hoping to exploit that special case.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Are we going to need COVID-19 booster shots? See in context

The previous pandemic from 1918 lasted two years.

Why would it be necessary to have boosters for the rest of our lives?

Because in 1918 the world was not nearly as mobile as today. The only reason it spread as far as it did was the massive wave of troop movements home from europe after the war ended, which was pretty much a one-time event.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

Posted in: Vietnam puts southern region in lockdown as surge grows See in context

But yet Japan relaxes entry quarantine requirements from Vietnam a week ago...

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan to begin accepting requests for vaccine passports from July 26 See in context

Will this apply to those stationed in Japan at a US Military base who were vaccinated on base?

No, these will be pulling data from the japanese vaccination database (VRS) only.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: 90-year-old woman who died was infected with two virus variants at same time See in context

Which originated in Britain.......Utter Nonsense!!! False, fake and deliberately politically motivated clap trap.

The variant was identified in the UK,

The Spanish Flu of 1918 actually came from the midwest US, not from Spain, but its still called the Spanish Flu.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: Walk but don't text See in context

Pokézombies are a much more serious hazard.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Posted in: Japan seeks to have vaccine passports accepted by over 10 nations See in context

Visa waiver policy is not always reciprocal but based on the best interest of each country involved.

I can see Japan using this analogy to justify nonreciprocity on vaccination policy to themselves. I don't see why other countries would find it in their best interest though to agree though so this is likely going to go over like a fart in church.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan pushes back release of Olympic ticket lottery results to Saturday See in context

Makes sense to wait a few more days until all relevant decisions are in and only have to handle refunds under a single consistent policy rather than take applications for lottery loser refunds, then a few days later have to process refunds for all events in their entirety if that's what's decided.

Both my wife and I should be (just barely - by 5 days for me and from the day before for her) fully vaccinated by the time of the event we've got tickets for, so still contemplating going if its possible.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

Posted in: Suga says Japan will offer 3 mil vaccine doses to Pacific nations See in context

These are AstraZeneca doses which Japan has had no plans of using on its own people. The government considers them second-tier status due to the higher levels of side-effects.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Posted in: Japan to halt company applications for workplace vaccinations See in context

Another step back or in the wrong direction!

How is getting all the doses they have available into people's arms ASAP rather than stockpiling them until they risk spoilage a step in the wrong direction?

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Posted in: More companies, universities begin on-site vaccinations See in context

Are you saying you will receive your first in the next 3 days? If not, that's literally impossible to be fully vaccinated by end of July as you need 2 shots the minimum of 3 weeks apart and then a further 2 weeks to be considered fully vaccinated.

4 weeks apart for the Moderna they're using for corporate programs, 3 weeks is for Pfizer.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo Olympic spectator cap set at 10,000 or 50% capacity per venue See in context

All things considered, who would want to go to any events?

I'll (just in time) be fully vaccinated by the time the one event I have tickets for rolls around, so I'll probably go if I'm allowed since at this point I doubt they're gonna refund anyone.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Posted in: More companies, universities begin on-site vaccinations See in context

Look at all those empty seats. SMH.

Those empty chairs are an indication that there are no bottlenecks in the lines. It looks like its initial reception in the back, chairs to wait for paperwork checking (unused - good, no waiting), paperwork checking, chairs to wait for the actual jab (only a few queued - good, not much wait), the actual vaccination area and the observation area (which you can't see much of) in the foreground.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Posted in: More companies, universities begin on-site vaccinations See in context

Got my first jab today at the office. Second one already scheduled in 4 weeks.

Whole process was orchestrated in exquisite detail. Get off elevator, go to reception station 1 (there were no less than 12 queues at each station), check all paperwork is present, get temperature checked. Go to station 2, have ID checked. Go to station 3, hand in local government coupon if you have one (I didn't, there was no issue with that). Get jabbed at station 4 (entire process at this point took less than 5 minutes), go to the massive area of 2m interval chairs to wait out the 15 minutes of observation.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Posted in: Australia defends decision to penalize its citizens returning from COVID-ravaged India See in context

Roughly a quarter of the 35,000 Australians stranded overseas are in India, which reported close to 400,000 cases on Friday and more than 200,000 total deaths.

The 35,000 figure is just the number of citizens actively trying to get back to OZ. The actual number of citizens overseas is much higher. And the number isn't going down, the miniscule quota that are being let back in barely enough to offset the people newly trying to repatriate.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: Japan's restaurant alcohol ban sets new COVID-19 emergency apart See in context

Is alcohol truly the problem ???.

Its certainly a contributor.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Posted in: Japan's restaurant alcohol ban sets new COVID-19 emergency apart See in context

What difference does alcohol make in the spreading of the coronavirus? Doesn't alcohol kill the virus?

Alcohol reduces inhibitions and makes people more likely to engage in riskier behaviour.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

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