Fagui Curtain comments

@wtfjapan

too late and useless to whine. the money has been lent, and the creditors won't ever see it again... its gone...

coming soon to Japan

PK and own goal... but Japan advances to the final...

still what a poor way of winning

Soon coming in Japan...

one of the best TV show ever...

on a Japanese TV news report, they interviewed 3 youngsters from NYC who acknowledged taking those same pills as a recreational drug. Just finished the book Wolf of Wall Street where JB tells about his addiction to "Quaaludes" a very strong pain reliever.

Its pretty obvious that this woman is using this medecine as a drug, and 100% deserves what is happening. Toyota is making a mistake supporting her.

her surgeon did an excellent job ! now for real news, JT, where does she go out and do we have a chance to meet her ?

fiscal residency and visa status are two completely different things.

one can even be a Japan fiscal resident while residing in another part of the world. what matters is your "financial center of interest", ie where you have your bulk of assets/business/family etc...

@StormR im not saying yen will reach 200 tomorrow or this week.

however, please consider that usdyen moving from 75 to 120 in the pace of 2 years is an over 50%+ (75+37.5 = 112.5) and should that happen again, that brings usdjpy to over 180 (120+60 = 180) i would say given the abenomics policy and monetization of the jpy, the risk is certainly more that we go to 180 than back to 75. im not predicting yen will go to 200 instantly, but the probabilities are certainly skewed towards a much weaker yen. and that weaker yen has been already hurting japanese (and probably you as well, if youre holding too many of those yens)

Probably exports will show some rebound from the weaker yen. but thats short term noise in the long or medium term. deficits of 7% a year just means, if -in a dream world- japan stopped spending more than it gets, gdp would instantly fall 7%... this economy is weak, just very weak. and thats EVEN with BOJ in full monetization, and long term rates basically 0%. and what people dont understand, its that its purely financial and maths. even if Japan found free energy tomorrow and a cure for cancer that it would sell to the world, as long as deficits stay this way, it is the inevitable outcome, sooner or later.

the maths of the deficit means the printing from BOJ will accelerate, in an exponential and irreversible fashion, and the Yen and purchasing power of the Japanese will just crash, and this economy will just crash. the chances things turn around are quantic.

the Monetization of debt works, until it doesnt; It has worked very well, beyond imagination, for 30+ years, it doesnt mean it will work for the next 30 years.

@Guy_jean; absolutely, govt debt's mirror is JGB held in your pension fund, by your life insurance plan, by SMBC &co holding your JPY account. wiping JGB debt means wiping your pension fund, your life insurance plan, and your money @SMBC. but for some people on this forum, it doesnt matter; the good news is that taxes should (in theory) go down. the problem is that when that happens, (IF the govt keeps its promise) the whole economy will be in shambles and everybody broke.

what is absolutely scary to me, is that economists and politicians dont understand financial markets. currency markets are simply too big for governments to control and manipulate. the currency markets have turned around in the last two years. currency trends last a few years. When currency move, they move fast. Just look for Argentina, Venezuela or Ukraine for recent examples; or Russia to a lesser extent.

Japan is just falling behind.

People will feel much poorer in this country in the years ahead, no matter they sell a few more Toyotas. (by the way, Japan has been losing its competitive advantage over the years in the export industry, and should not take as a given that its predominance lets say in auto or electronics will stay forever. however, the debt is really here and growing, no matter what)

@JeffLee and JapanGal I think you're totally missing the point. What has been true the last 20 years will not be true the next 20 years. Japanese Debt had been an excellent investment for a domestic investor until 2 years ago for 2 nearly 2 decades, but this is over now. What has changed ? the maths and demography, sir. And, more importantly, the market. maths ? japanese debt is over 200% of GDP growing 7% a year thanks to so-called stimulus packages. govt receipts (taxes) cover only 50% of spending. imagine if you do that. the only buyer left is the BOJ; thats outright monetization of the debt. Yes the BOJ can continue to do that indefintely, and Japan may choose never to default on its domestic debt.

HOWEVER, what happens if it continues ?

Yen is crashing Purchasing Power goes down

Yen crashed 40% against $ and euros in 2 years. one can argue its going only back to levels seen less than 10 years ago. Thats a bit quick analysis. because in the mean time; you have to account for the opportunity cost of investing your usd (or euros) buying a house in US or Euro, or just buying a US treasury bond and compounding interest (which has been near 0% here since much longer ago). I can clearly see that house prices have doubled in US and EUR (going nowhere but down here), and even with a stupid savings account, you could make 20%-30% during that long period (+ capital gains as bonds yields are much lower abroad now then they used to be) so the Yen is even much weaker than it looks facially. What happens when Yen crashes ? the country gets poorer and poorer. It cannot import goods. look at that fancy LV bag. same bag just cost 40% more. Mcdonalds doesnt want to import potatoes (losing money proposition). Purchasing power is going down, and thats accelerating.

Market changed: yes on a long term perspective, were only going back to levels seen a few years ago, but in financial markets, momentum is important. certainly the yen was overvalued when trading at 100 against euro or 75 against usd. However thats been swiftly corrected and the momentum is for much weaker yen. currency trends dont last months but years. the basic assumption should be that usd goes to 200 to yen. which will only make things worse for most Japanese, except for a few currency traders, and maybe some exporters. Exports account for less than 10% of GDP. they dont really matter. and if you look at last year numbers, Exports from Japan increased in Yen terms but not in USD terms. Even the Nikkei shot up a lot in Yen terms, but its actually down in Usd terms.

This country is impoverishing itself. samething for GDP. think about it. a weaker yen means compared to 2 years ago, the Japanese GDP has gone DOWN 40% in USD terms !!! i mean, only countries like Ukraine are doing worse... with usd/jpy at 200, this country GDP will fall behind a country like (overindebted and deeped in crisis) Italy which has a lower population....!!!!!

Abenomics is not working, and at the current pace, the country is crashing, and crashing fast. No one will tell it in the main media.

I watched it, the scenario was totally boring, its all overacted as usual in J-dramas...

BUT BUT BUT, for a 39y old, Ryoko Yonekura is hot !