That do not state that the other one are not Japanese but that the nationality is unknown. And not being Japanese by family register doesn't mean they were not born and grow up in Japan. Neither that make then non permanent resident not travelers.
I will not even make comment about the fact that the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare could think than that is a relevant information (except for old creep driving a big black hummer or the like).
And why do you think that is anything like a relevant information ? Regarding the topic the relevant number, for the same day, is 31 : the number of people tested positive by the quarantine staff of boarder.
Come from our dear government : https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_10595.html
You can guess how they are to switch the number to reduce the growing impression after the cruise include, cruise exclude ; that will be from all cases to recovered ones.
@Do the hustle
This whole scenario is a bit like Darwinism. Only the diligent will survive. The complacent will not survive.
You mean like people in hospital, medical staff included. If they die is because of their lack of hygiene ?
practicing good oral hygiene
Because, albeit the inability of the virus to contaminate you in public transportation and at work, it can only contaminate you from you mouth. Nose, eye, wound, lesion, ... not a chance, virus will go the other way.
-1 ( +0 / -1 )
Today empty restaurant, tomorrow empty restaurants, day after tomorrow empty restaurant and by Sat. it will be bankrupt restaurant.
No need to bold.
Restaurant will have to adjust : take out and delivery. (doing it itself should help).
I will suggest to go for creating a group with other shop in the area and create special offer. Kitchen will not appear out of the blue.
The can go for something like :
Liberty offer : 2 meals a day, anytime order
Planer offer : 2 meals a day, order before 12:00 and 18:00
Supper planner offer : 2 meals a day, one delivery, order before 12:00the purpose of the planner will be to have the ability to plan delivery route
Adventurous offer : 2 meals a day, one delivery, no order.the purpose is to increase work balance in between restaurant (reducing risk f one with lot of order and another without any order)
Cook will cook, ground staff will be in charge of delivery and managing order and communication in between restaurant throught any line/skype/... . Regarding money I guess, the best will be to have a base income for each shop out of the benefice + a part calculated in regard of work provided.
4 ( +4 / -0 )
You mean like the people working in tourism, entertainment, shop, restaurant, bar, ... which have already lost their job or will in the days to come and are unlucky but it's like that, bad period, ne.
The people if a mass quarantine is issued as they were not in employment could not go public to shame their company firing them neither will be concerned by any financial help by the government to company and worker as they are not working anymore and their loss of business can not be linked to the government decision.
1 ( +2 / -1 )
So if Koike San does not have the authority to do the necessary in Tokyo - who made the decision in Hokkaido ?
Different legal situation, I think.
The law we are under now was voted after the Hokkaido call and the governor agreed, he did not had the power to do it legally, thus it was no biding.
The current law state that the Prime Minister call for nationwide emergency, once this declaration is made, governor can declare local emergency. That is still not enforced law, mostly point and shame as the previous one but should still bring benefit logically.
The previous law was declared by cabinet not covering the current situation thus a new law had to be enacted, that created a hole were Hokkaido Governor could jump in without having any cabinet coming against hm for not waiting for national announcement as they themselves said the law at that time did not apply.
Koike is stuck in the hierarchical law in place now. Will she have declared if not ? I do not know. As pointed before politics and personal interest are in the play. Can another governor choose to just go for emergency declaration without a care for Abe&co, quite possibly as long as the benefit (personal, for the people, ... ) surpass the risk.
2 ( +2 / -0 )
Mortuary should have been packed with bodies waiting to be cremated but no one is talking about it.
No one talking about it does not mean that is not happening, for one. And for two, lets do math to see what a packed with body involve.
The average number of death a day in Japan is more than 3400. And seems to be a bunch of crematorium : https://www.mhlw.go.jp/bunya/kenkou/seikatsu-eisei24/dl/zenkoku_kasouba_database.pdf
Lets arbitrarily decide that the system will be packed with a 5% daily increase. That will mean 170 more deaths a day.
Lets drop all issue related to prognosis and exponential spread, taking in account the fatality rate of around 3,5%, to reach 170 more death a day, that will mean 4857 new cases a day.
I do not remember people going as far as this number for daily increase, more like there is thousand of cases and hundred of new cases a day.
So lets imaging an 1000 new infected a day, that will mean (still getting ride of prognosis and exponential spread) 35 more deaths a day so around 1% increase of work for crematorium.
So we are still stuck with the : "we do not know one way or another".
NB : taking in account prognosis and exponential spread will involve delay in between infection and death different for each people and the number of deaths increasing with time. Since we will be at the beginning, mixing these 2 elements will most likely create an irregular curb. Moreover the death rate also evolve with time. So that is a gross mathematical explanation.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
That still leaves 47 cases left. Around 20 of those cases are Japanese coming back from North America or Europe.
Aren't the airport people counted separately ?
In this article, they talk only about 3 travelers and that 29 people declared positive people on 28th are from the hospital, which bring the total to 40 including the day before tests. There is 23 untraceable cases as of now :
63(positive) - 29(hospital) - 3(travelers) - 8(contacts) = 23
1 ( +1 / -0 )
pledged to compile the "boldest-ever" stimulus package to address the economic impact from the coronavirus outbreak, including cash handouts to underpin household spending
Good. Can we have it after we fix the problem of the "rampant" spread of covid-19 in Japan ? Because as of now that is trying to fill a pierced bucket. Lot of people will not go outside spending money as long as the risk of catching the bug exist.
Do you math, mister the Prime Minister of Economy : one evening in the restaurant : 5000yens + visit to the doctor and medecine : 1000 yens + documentation for leave of work : 4000 yens + 4 days of unpaid sick leave : 40000yens + 10 days of unpaid isolation leave : 100000 yens + the potential loss of yearly bonus / the potential downgrading in the advancement scheme / the potential loss of you job / the potential contamination of the rest of the family and cost related / the potential need to move because for the neighbor you are the one which had it / .... : no price.
First you froze the economy the best you can (utilities/taxes cut / salary subsidiary / job subsidiary (form and send people without job to sector in need) / ... ). Second you get ride of the bug. Third you relaunch the machine and you will, most likely, be surprised to see that it will be smoother as several people are currently not spending much so even with lose of bonus and so on they are keeping at float and when things will be solved they will be so happy to spend money partying and so on.
7 ( +7 / -0 )
You should check with the embassy.
Foreigner can not come to Japan from most of Europa directly or by taking a flight from elsewhere. Perhaps, family from Japanese citizen can, they should see with Japan embassy.
If he is a foreigner and do not compel, the authority should be able to use visa right as leverage way (cancellation, entry ban in the future, ...).
If he is Japanese, he should be able to came back if he find a flight.
Usually, stuff are not mandatory. Thus you have to do it at your how cost.
According to Reckless' case (in this comment section), home quarantine seems possible. And, article were about being asked to self quarantine at home or hostel, so ... .
They better check with embassy, I do not think that any of us have access to the official guideline.
Hoping you son and the rest of the family stay well, do you have any official knowledge for browny1 ?
0 ( +0 / -0 )
I have question for the author :
What happened around 2-4 weeks ago ? (taking in account the delay after onset to be tested and the incubation period)
Regarding the "shikata ga nai" is one of the stuff which can explain the mass for hanami and the lack of social distancing. Can also be used to question the wearing of mask as they can not help than having their potentially ill self be stuck to potentially ill other ; but they can at least help this one.
How about linking all of these concepts with the low number of identified cases not as negative Schrodinger cat but positive ones ? Why if infected Japanese and their family were enduring the illness to not be a bother to other ?
Personally, I think the proximity with China and the reluctance of Abe to close border with it tensed Japanese up in protecting themselves. Then one of the first case of local transmission was identified at the time of death (tested before result after) and lead to a cluster involving taxi driver and medical staff, which brought more tense up. And to top it a cruise ship with lot of cases and official being infected too come up, alongside a new cluster in a hospital in the middle of the countryside, which must have not helped reduce the tense up. All of that could have brought people to be more careful without any regard to all the Japanese culture stuff. But since for a while the government was sending messages like it is ok, we win against the virus, we are handling thing well, we have almost no case and we can even reduce measure, ... ; Olympic should go on, go spend money ; people eased up.
So just another theory.
1 ( +2 / -1 )
That do not reply to any of my question.
So as of now that is just speculation, one way or the other.
-1 ( +0 / -1 )
Please give us your link to official daily/weekly/monthly death count.
Speculation work the 2 way round. We know we do not know and we will have to wait for the number to come out.
If there was an overflow we surely heard about it by now.
Why ? Do you have a lot of friend working in the cremation business ?
There is more than 3000 people dying a day a Japan. How much increase do you think will be needed for the system to overflow ?
4 ( +6 / -2 )
The key figure is the death toll alongside number of critically ill patients. Japan's number continued to remain low at 45 (+2 newly confirmed), with no exponential increase.
How do you know that ? The number we have is just the positive tested people. We have no idea for the untested people.
In a country were the average daily death is more than 3000 person, how big an increase is needed for people to notice something is going wrong ?
And I think you are over-estimating the power linked to the state of emergency in Japan.
A state of emergency would allow governors in hard-hit regions to take steps such as asking people to stay home, closing schools and other public facilities and cancelling large events.
Even if a state of emergency is eventually declared, experts noted there are no penalties for ignoring most of the local authorities' instructions.
Just have government bear some responsibility about the situation instead of having as for Tokyo&co and Hokkaido case, the governor asking with 0 legal basis so no enforcement, penalty, incitement, ... just having people/company fend for themselves and bear all consequences.
2 ( +2 / -0 )
Exponential grow is a proportional grow.
Exponential grow :
taking a R0 of 5 and a 4degree chain :
degree 0 : 1 =1
degree 1 : 1+(1x5) =6
degree 2 : 1+(1x5)+((1x5)x5) = 31degree 3 : 1+(1x5)+((1x5)x5)+(((1x5)x5)x5) = 156*
degree 4 : 1+(1x5)+((1x5)x5)+(((1x5)x5)x5)+((((1x5)x5)x5)x5) = 781
7 ( +7 / -0 )
Just the idiotic actions of the past week
Are you trying to go for the move : not the national government fault. It is someone else fault ?
Oh, and be sure to buy lots of toilet paper, instant ramen, feminine products, masks, and hand sanitizer for the coming lock down.
Thanks to not push people into doing mass buying. As said before, even in the event of a mass quarantine, the supermarket are most likely to stay open. You do not have to mass buy.
Even if you aim to stock for a month or so just do it slowly in the course of a few weeks, please. There is nothing bad about being a prepper moreover in a country with natural disaster but it is something which is done thought time. Starting doing it at last minute in hoard can put other people in difficulty as they will not find what they need now. So in this kind of situation, please be considerate and aim at a lower rate of overbuying to stock and you can also adjust to stuff which are not now in high demand but are as good if not better : soup for one (but still without mass-buying, please).
10 ( +10 / -0 )
A government panel of experts on Thursday said new-coronavirus infections in Japan appear highly likely to be "rampant"
That is so surprising ... It is not like for days/weeks WHO is going round and round asking countries to do test, for one reason, because that pandemic can go undetected for a while before exploding. The whole world will be stunned to hear of that.
I guess time to sort needed thing out, do not hoard (regarding other countries even if they mass quarantine they should not dare go stronger than Occident, so supermarket will stay open and supply chain working so do not mass buy and if you are at risk it should be better to wait until the hoard get out of supermarket to shop).
10 ( +11 / -1 )
As everybody said.Hospital do not exist for the sole purpose of dealing with covid-19. Meaning all year long they save live. When the hospital start being overflowded with critical patient, the staff end up exhausted and for some contaminated, ... how will they deal with all the patient covid-19 and other ?
9 ( +10 / -1 )
It seems to me that the Government and their experts are gearing up to blame the people when testing finally begins in earnest in Japan and case numbers rise dramatically.
And do not forget the : it is coming from Europa, US. There was no community transmission going unseen.
If they want people to be more carefull to avoid being infected, they should do their end the deal and test suspected case to reduce risk of being in contact with infected. What is the point of refraining doing thing you enjoy when you have at the same time to ride train with coughing and sneezing people (it is ok they have a mask (perhaps) so no worry not even a need for them to put their arm in front of their face in case the pressure make it possible for part of stuff to go pass the mask (do not know if that was studied)) ; to work with people currently not feeling good or which were not feeling good take a few day off but since the symptom subdued had to go back to work because if you dare not have a continuous high fever when taking medecine for at least 4 days, that is something else ; ... and in top of it government going more or less like we win the fight go back make/spend money but do not go overboard by doing free stuff or we can still put the city on lockdown. Sure that is all on the people.
2 ( +2 / -0 )
Because they were not relevant as hey compared the measure taken by area which have declared they failed containment thus they were in the state of community spread. So all their decision are bound with community spread regard : the whole population is seen as potentially infected thus modulated quarantine is in place, testing is use in priority for severe case as WHO requirement (thought continue to test as much as possible), any person with symptom is inferred to be infected thus should isolate (needed documentation provided), only severe case are to be oriented to medical facility.
If you were to consider these as a justification of Japan testing policy, you should then consider than Japan is in a state of heavy community spread. I will let you imagine what the absence of quarantine measure would involve.
So pick your choice : irrelevant to the situation of Japan or pretty big badmouthing of Japan.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
You clearly talked about fatality rate. (as I quoted).
The part of the post you quoted was talking about fatality rate (and the measure taken or not), also.
My post is about fatality rate,
Sorry that is was unclear that the 3% was referring to the fatality rate.
1 ( +1 / -0 )
If that made sense, the fatality rate would have already increased.
It already have. You didn't notice ? For more than one week we stand at more than 3%.
As of now the tendency is slower than in Italia. (wikipedia / NHK+MHLW data).
After, you are free to read any comment relating to the issue regarding the count of fatalities in Japan thus the difficulty to get a accurate fatality rate. And, as stated before, that is difficult to compare fatality rate in between countries because of : different way of counting and too early. So even if tendency of death rate can be more interesting than the one of deaths, it should still be taken carefully.
It is quite possible we will get more accurate idea in a few month when overall death data will come out and we will be able to see if there is inconsistency with prediction.
1 ( +2 / -1 )
Japan is having around new 50 infected people everyday from clusters, including some infected lately came back from Europe (Spain, Italy, Portugal) according to news.
Which is more or less the only person they accept to test.
Mortality rate is still low.
Not specially. Too much variability in between countries and too early to have final estimate.
It doesn't seem a virus spike even if around new 50 people tested positive everyday.
Difficult to say according to the testing policy. But I do not remember them being able to track patient 0-1 for several cluster.
Infection rate would decrease some weeks later.
All people with severe symptoms are already being tested.
Can you prove it ?
1 ( +2 / -1 )
It is the live patient data base linked there :
Perhaps they had to put it out since they were working on it. It is always in process as they double check all the time, so there is stuff added/suppressed with time. They use data from NHK, prefecture, Ministry of Health ...
0 ( +0 / -0 )
I see, so in that case could it not be logical to also ask people to refrain traveling around too much during this long weekend instead of just focusing on the Osaka - Hyogo border ?
And if the hypothesis is that there is still lot of infected people, should not something be done to identify them ?
At least 2, there is a cluster linked to a hospital.
1 ( +1 / -0 )
if one group of infected person is not isolated and is moving around, multiple people from that group of person will infect other people, causing the creation of more group of infected person. If this happens between Osaka and Hyogo, where the same people tend to travel back and forth repeatedly, we will see more and more group of infected person forming.
I see. Does this mean that if people from an infected group of person go around alone or meet other people from the same group of infected people, they can not infect other ?
0 ( +0 / -0 )
That do not reply to my question. I asked you what do you think a cluster is ? How do you expect cluster to meet ? How do think cluster could create a supercluster ? And so on.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
There is a cluster in Osaka and a cluster in Itami. They want to avoid these clusters from meeting and exploding further.
What exactly do you think a cluster is ?
Yoshimura told a press conference that the local government contained the outbreak by [...] by promoting tests.
Pity that it is limited to cluster time.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
By the way, more than 70% of patients of DM have already been recovered at 6 pm on March 18.
Which is on part with statistic as more than 80% of these people were tested positive at least 1 month prior and the recovery time is usually 6 week at most even for critical case. Good for them. Hope the rest follow suit soon.
1 ( +1 / -0 )
Coronavirus infections through four live music venues in Osaka appear to be over as no new cases among visitors have been reported for a week, local authorities said Thursday.
And since all of them teleported from the venue till their place then stayed there without moving until they were tested positive, the problem is solved.
Do they by any chance think a cluster is some kind of special place were the virus spread but outside of these the virus doesn't spread. This place self generate from a infected person. Once the cluster is generated people coming inside it can be contaminated but neither them nor the one which generated the cluster will contaminate anybody as long as he doesn't create a new cluster ? Or something like that ?
0 ( +1 / -1 )
I promise, this is all true.
Yes, yes, ...
France is now taking mask to fragile people to give to doctor because they do not know what to do. You understand than 2 weeks ago, France issued an requisition order regarding all mask. As living in a country facing a shortage of mask, people in Japan are aware of this one, you didn't know ?
Any proof/source to back any of your statement ?
I have seen so many incompetent people that i can't believe they didn't kill french political opposition.
So can we consider that we got french far right activist (real or fake) too, now ?
what many people want is to junk the WHO guidelines and test anyone who wants to get tested.
More like they want Japan to follow the guideline issued by WHO.
For : No Cases \/ Sporadic Cases \/ Clusters of Cases \/ Community Transmission
Test suspect cases per WHO case definition, contacts of confirmed cases; test patients identified through respiratory disease surveillance.
Some specific for : Community Transmission situation
If testing capacity is overwhelmed prioritize testing in health care settings and vulnerable groups. In
closed settings test the first symptomatic suspect cases.
the scenario of not being able to test because of lack of proper testing facilities has been mentioned time and again
Strange Abe say not so long ago they could test up to 6000 person and they will soon be able to test up to 8000. Did they finish the Nagasaki BSL-4 laboratory ?
I wonder how countries with the same number of BSL-4 lab if not less were able to do so many tests then ?
And why just not built them in area far from people ?
Once again the usual politician move : it is not our fault if something is wrong that is because of the people.
0 ( +1 / -1 )