Japan Today

fxgai comments

Posted in: Yen hits 2-month high of 154 against dollar on BOJ rate hike speculation See in context

speech that the BOJ must clearly communicate how it will normalize monetary policy, including gradual interest rate hikes.

Well duh.

The BOJ is bankrolling the governments deficits by printing money, so how about the government specify how it is going to stop adding 40 trillion yen of annual deficit to the quadrillion yen of debt already racked up, before making out like the BOJ has the ball in its court?

The yen had been depreciating sharply against the dollar, with the BOJ's first interest rate hike in 17 years in March doing little to reverse the currency's weakening trend

I can’t say I expect much different in the wake of a possible upcoming hike either.

Looks like a good time to sell more yen is nigh

The central bank is scheduled to hold a policy-setting meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday, at which the Policy Board is expected to discuss how much it should reduce government bond buying.

That’s the big issue… if they stop printing so much money, as the big whale in the JGB market, long term rates are going up - and the value of the assets on the BOJ’s balance sheet down… as well as the liabilities on the other side (the yen they print)

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Posted in: French activist Bardot slams Japan's 'manhunt' against anti-whaler Watson See in context

A pointless exercise. Most people don't appreciate mass killing of whales.

Sorry but what to eat isn’t subject to the tyranny of a majority. Embrace diversity please. Or at least, tolerate it. It’s the 21st century already.

-3 ( +4 / -7 )

Posted in: French activist Bardot slams Japan's 'manhunt' against anti-whaler Watson See in context

He hasn't killed anyone, just hurt some not very good people, so maybe the terrorist label is going a little too far.

A would-be assassin who had his head blown off the other day fits that bill…

And come on, people who work in the domain of sustainably utilizing renewable marine resources, are fine people. What specifically is not good about them?

No one was ever forcing Watson to eat whales, live and let live.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

Posted in: French activist Bardot slams Japan's 'manhunt' against anti-whaler Watson See in context

Boomers for boomers

-15 ( +7 / -22 )

Posted in: Japan to reduce speed limit on residential roads to curb accidents See in context

About 0.2% of neighborhoods in Japan look like that picture, it’s a beauty

25 ( +32 / -7 )

Posted in: No. of individual shareholders in Japan tops 70 mil for 1st time See in context

The 70 million number is rather misleading isn’t it. The number could get above the total population before long.

Also, individuals invested in NISA accounts are not shareholders. Rather they are beneficiaries of managed funds which hold shares in many companies. The individual with a NISA account doesn’t own any shares 

NISA can be used to buy individual listed stocks too, not only funds.

Indeed many might be holding just mutual funds though.

NISA, almost every week i can see someone on my social media post how many million they had invested and how they going to plan for the retirement life. My family we apply different approach, my wife will goes for NISA

NISA NISA NISA, it’s just a complicated tax break system.

If one invests via NISA and makes 10,000,000 yen profit, one can keep the 10,000,000 yen profit.

If one invests in a taxable account and makes 10,000,000 yen profit, one can still keep almost 8,000,000 yen profit.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: On stage, one of Japan's biggest Kabuki stars changes roles in an instant. Offstage, it took decades See in context

Poor guy lost his beautiful wife to cancer some years back.

Bit of karma for his wild younger days perhaps but he seems to be on track these days, with I guess a need to fulfill his responsibilities by himself.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan to convey its forex stance at G20 meetings in Brazil: Suzuki See in context

Forex stance… the truth is that the finance ministry is the worlds largest forex speculator causing wild volatility.

They should tell the politicians to change their policies if they don’t like their currency tanking.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Posted in: Obama tells allies Biden needs to reconsider his re-election bid: Washington Post See in context

Yes, if Biden thinks he isn’t up to it then he ought resign pronto. Not hang on for another 5-6 months.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

Posted in: Japan's top currency official warns of intervention, sees no limits See in context

speculation is "the biggest."

This is 100% wrong.

Speculation by definition is buying and selling , coupled together. Speculators have to close their positions to realize any profits or losses.

Therefore, speculation has no long term impact.

Fundamentals are what drives the currency pricing, and the fundamentals being bad is why they have put the yen in the tank.

Kanda has to tell such porkies though. It’s his job to try to explain away their attempts to mess with markets.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Posted in: 98% with mixed Japanese heritage experience microaggressions: survey See in context

“microaggression” :)

Sounds like a concept invented by people who fail to understand that various people can have various ideas and preconceptions.

It’s not a big deal methinks. I’m not even a boomer.

-3 ( +6 / -9 )

Posted in: Japan keeps mum on forex intervention as yen jumps See in context

Suzuki said foreign exchange levels should be determined by market forces but rapid fluctuations are undesirable. "In particular, we are concerned about one-sided movements," he added.

The yen keeps going down because… it’s the same way as how water circles the drain. It doesn’t come back up. It’s the natural flow given the terrible policy mix adopted in Japan.

The most rapid fluctuations are those caused by the intervention. How can economic actors plan when they might have to deal with the crazy speculative activities of these central government clowns in the forex markets causing such rapid moves?

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Posted in: Japan likely spent some ¥3 tril on intervention as yen jumps See in context

Time will tell but either way I’m happy to see it strengthen.

It’s probably a temporary reprieve, unfortunately.

I’d rather see some better policies in Japan to help to actually turn the ship around properly.

Number one - adopt a “strong currency” policy.

Number two - slash low priority spending to clamp down on the endless decades of deficit spending that forces the BOJ to keep printing money

… well there’s more but those two things would be a fine start. Hopefully Kishida’s successor won’t be another brain dead politician of the same school.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Posted in: Japan likely spent some ¥3 tril on intervention as yen jumps See in context

And with a rate cut extremely likely in September, we should see a stronger yen. Which is great for those of us long suffering yen earners.

Stronger relative to when, though?

The yen was worth 140 to start the year. Praise the lord if we are mercifully able to get back there again without a nasty financial markets shock of some sort.

If the BOJ continues to buy JGBs and even hikes its short term policy rate to 0.5%, and the FOMC cuts its to say 4.0%, I will still be selling my yen for dollars. Heck, even my Turkish lira have performed better than the yen this year, which shows just how ridiculous things are.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Posted in: Japan likely spent some ¥3 tril on intervention as yen jumps See in context

suejak,

The economic illiteracy in the comments and even article itself are mindboggling.

That’s true from everyone’s perspective:)

The BOJ is not SPENDING yen to "prop up" the currency. The BOJ is profiting tremendously off of every single intervention.

This is a dubious statement.

Consider that when the MoF had the BOJ intervene similarly in 2022 to sell dollar reserves for yen, the USD/JPY rate was at around 150.

Now it’s at 157.

So if those dollars had been held on to, rather than converted to yen, they would be worth more now. I won’t do the math but it would be a whole lot of money in yen terms.

This is not to mention any yield that would have been had from those dollars during the interim.

However, the MoF with BOJ is not doing this to make profits anyway.

Japan has massive reserves of US dollars (called foreign reserves) that it bought when they dollar was dirt cheap

Above you said that the BOJ is not “spending” the dollars, but here you claim that the dollars being sold were “bought” to begin with. That’s inconsistent isn’t it.

The BOJ is now selling those dollars for yen at 160 yen, almost twice the price.

Would be better to sell them when the rate is 200 or 400 yen to the dollar, just as selling them now is better than selling them when it was 150.

It's no different than any other commodity -- buy low, sell high.

They are not trading forex here though. It’s not as if they will be paying tax on what you claim are profits, since that’s not what is actually going on.

They are packing tons of yen into Japan's treasury,

How so?

which Japan will then be able to use on domestic spending and paying off its debt.

Selling dollars and paying down debt could be agreeable, but I’m sure that this intervention doesn’t mean a thing for domestic government spending or debt repayment.

The exchange rate will improve for the yen once the U.S. Fed cuts rates and/or the BOJ raises rates, but the latter is relatively unlikely and the former is guaranteed eventually. The same dynamic applies to the euro.

That’s what some pundits were saying at the start of the year when the rate was circa 140, as I recall. Even if the FOMC does cut rates a bit there will still be a big gap between the yen and dollar etc, and the policy approach here is brain dead so any temporary strength in the yen will be a welcome opportunity to sell more, for me.

The article also says "Market analysts said the yen's rapid appreciation came as market players flocked to the currency as the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential narrowed following the release of the inflation data." This is wrong; the shifts in the yen are based on speculation about interest rate changes in the future. Lower than expected U.S. inflation means there's a higher than expected chance of the Fed lowering U.S. interest rates, which would lower the differential. 

Well, it was wrong but not for that reason I’d say - the appreciation came because the BOJ sold a craptonne of dollars for yen.

Can the Japan Today reporter and higher a finance expert to write articles that don't embarrass the site.

I think the article was fine… and there are plenty of finance experts in the comments to make up for any deficiencies in the reporting.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Posted in: Japan likely spent some ¥3 tril on intervention as yen jumps See in context

yen moves should be stable, reflecting economic fundamentals.

its the exact opposite whenever these people cause the yen to temporarily spike higher, flying in the face of the economic fundamentals

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Posted in: Stocks up on US rate hopes, yen holds gains amid intervention talk See in context

The other thing about Kanda, is he needs to take a look in the mirror.

He talks about speculative one-sided moves in the market, but he is the one creating one sided moves through his intervention, and he is also losing. Maybe he feels he has something to prove before he is shipped out of his job at the end of the month. Not sure the next person will be any better. I imagine the people there at the Ministry of Finance are full of themselves.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Posted in: Stocks up on US rate hopes, yen holds gains amid intervention talk See in context

The Bank of Japan has "been pretty smart here... pushing on an open door rather than the idea that they would just intervene and do anything other than just gift speculators the opportunity to resell the yen at better levels".

That is “not as dumb”, but still not smart in absolute terms.

I have taken the opportunity to sell some more yen for dollars this last day or two. Was waiting for such a chance, so thanks I suppose to Kanda for obliging me.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: France votes in snap polls as far-right eyes historic win See in context

I was discussing with an LLM about this now, and got something good out of it:

Media characterization of political movements can often lack nuance, leading to broad labels like "far right" being applied more liberally than warranted. It’s important for consumers of news to critically evaluate these labels and understand the specific policies and ideologies of political figures to get a more accurate picture.

i must have promoted it appropriately to get it to produce this common sense output.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Posted in: France votes in snap polls as far-right eyes historic win See in context

s/lower/power/

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: France votes in snap polls as far-right eyes historic win See in context

Well yeah, even the far isn't stupid enough to run on a platform of "elect me and we'll" commit a genocide. Kind of an odd critique to make.

So doesn’t it this strike you as odd that there is Seemingly a global wave of “far right” politicians coming to lower recently?

Or is it perhaps that the “far right” moniker is perhaps just nonsense propaganda?

As a reader, I just want the news.

I want that.

I don’t want some slanted political commentary.

This is how democracy is supposed to work - through the wisdom of the crowd. Not thru the type of propaganda tactics that the Nazis used.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Posted in: France votes in snap polls as far-right eyes historic win See in context

The above quote shows willful denial or just simple out of touch with reality.

Yep. But it’s all good. Biden is the best candidate and he is sure to beat the orange guy! JT readers seem to tend a little to the left on these issues and are seemingly led on that way by the media.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Posted in: France votes in snap polls as far-right eyes historic win See in context

I am curious to know if the French “far right” is similar to the Italian “far right” and Argentinian “far right”.

I am guessing they are not promoting genocide or other obvious far right behaviors.

7 ( +15 / -8 )

Posted in: Tech tip: Too many passwords to remember? Try using a password manager See in context

The only thing you'll need to remember is a single password to open the password manager.

Doesn’t strike me as better than using the same password for all one’s accounts…

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Posted in: A sometimes halting Biden tries at debate to confront Trump, who responds with falsehoods See in context

So the question is will Trump be President or some other Democratic candidate, right?

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Posted in: A sometimes halting Biden tries at debate to confront Trump, who responds with falsehoods See in context

Why do news reports make claims about falsehoods?

Stick to reporting the news, the people can make their own judgements about the statements made.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

Posted in: Indicted mogul takes on Japan's 'hostage justice' system See in context

He has a strong case.

In Japan you are presumed guilty. Experienced this personally once myself, before managing to convince the crooks that I was telling the honest truth.

7 ( +11 / -4 )

Posted in: Japan's new policy blueprint aims for pay hikes, end to deflation See in context

"The government will ensure faster income growth than inflation. In order to maintain the momentum from next year onwards, we will deploy all policy tools to support wage hikes," the document said.

Prospects look extremely bad then.

We need the government to emancipate us from its clutches.

Less central planning, more decentralized free market capitalism, please.

And let’s stop the central bank money printing. That would give the yen some reprieve big time. Slash government spending to help rein in the debt. Give the people some hope, if nothing else.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: U.S. puts Japan back on currency manipulator watch list after 1 year See in context

Interest rates so high that the real estate market suffers is what I call "too strong". Sure I'm doing well on my dollars. But there are alot of young Americans unable to buy their first house.

That’s not a strong dollar problem though, it’s a real estate supply / demand problem. A lot of todays boomers took out their first mortgage for higher rates than are on offer now.

Note conversely, Turkey has high interest rates, but a weak currency.

A strong currency is always good. Don’t dis it. That has been Japan’s big policy mistake over the third decade of its lost three decades.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan inflation rises to 2.5% in May See in context

It is just neo-liberal trickle down with a new name and game.

sick of seeing such drivel suggesting Japan is doing anything remotely neo-liberal.

It’s big government central planning here, and that’s the problem.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

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