gregoryharuko comments

In an outright war on the Senkaku islands, I doubt that the US military will win? Taiwan and probably also Koreas and ASEAN countries will support China... Of course this gunboat diplomacy will benefit no one in the long run... Japan needs to reconsider its foreign policy...and needs a pan East Asian organisation like Germany needs the EU to protect it's interests!

Japan learnt a lot from China during the Han/Tang dynasties: it learned to write (Kan-Ji) and to count, it learned to make a capital like Heian-Kyo, it learned to be a prosperous civilization. Of course it adapted all these learnings in a Japanese way... The question is How much can Jspsn still learn from the USA?

Whether you like it or not, nations in this 21st century can not become rich and prosperous without the 1.5 billion Chinese! This is true for Japan and the USA! The question for Post-WWIi Japan is How long can the USA be of more benefit for Japan than China! At this moment countries like Korea, Taiwan and ASEAN countries are already shifting their economic policies.... I know it is hard for a US colony like Japan to rethink their future, but it is vital if Kimigayo still wants to be nation of significance at the end of the 21st century!

Does Panetta really wants peace and prosperity in East-Asia ? He is just ensuring US interests in the region by keeping Post-WWII Japan as a US colony, by keeping its 50000+ troops in Okinawa ! The poor Japanese people, not only have to pay Uncle Sam to keep the military bases in Okinawa, but the Japanese people also have to take the economic sanctions from the Chinese Dragon... This is US 'divide et impera' power geopolitics in East-Asia, but I am afraid this one could escalate... The Dragon is prepared for minor military fighting, because this would get support from Taiwan and the whole overseas Chinese communities, and I am afraid the US military is not prepared to fight for Japan (but just letting Japan take all the financial and military beating...) because this would bankrupt US economy !

The Senkaku islands belonged to the Ryukyu Kingdom. Ryukyu's Cho dynasty became part of Imperial Japan in the 19th century, so the Senkaku islands belong to Japan. Ironically, the Ryukyu Kingdom was always promoting peace and trade between the Ming/Qing dynasties, the Korean dynasties, other South East Asian dynasties and Shogun Japan. Now the Ryukyu Kingdom is in the middle of dispute for supremacy between USA (with its colony = Post WWII Japan) and China. Ryukyu's Okinawa is essentially a US military base (instead of a peaceful island) and the Senkaku islands being China's way to challenge this US military base. The poor Japanese people are just paying the taxes to support this US geopolitical power game...

Finally, East-Asia is becoming of age... The Trilateral Trade Pact needs peace to develop and bring prosperity to the whole region...

@kabuki lover

Senkaku islands are part of Okinawa, and Okinawa is part of Japan, and not part of USA! Get those military bases out of Okinawa/Japan!

Tibet is part of China/Taiwan as is Guam part of USA. The question is: Is Japan becoming part of USA?

Minke whales are much healthier than grain fed Cows! Better for your cardiovascular risk profile!

@Patrick McPike

I think you are not following: politics and economics is not natural science, it is just power exercised by individuals who present it as a pseudo science for accomplishing a certain goal, and incapable of making any real scientific predictions ! Their predictions are just as good as throwing a dice ! In general politicians and economists are fake scientists... in comparison to physicists, biochemists, biologists.

Natural Reality is much more unimaginable than the best science-FICTION. Science-FICTION is made up in the mind of some individuals who try to extrapolate it from past events. To look for Natural Reality look for Journals like Nature and Science, not in Literature and Dictionaries !

People who want to make East-Asia a longlasting and prosperous region are trying to unite North with South Korea, but this goes against the geopolitics of uncle Sam, who still thinks he can call the shots in East-Asia after winning WWII/Cold War.

Apples and Oranges are both fruit, aren't they ? You just want to compare what looks right in your mind, what is inside your mind box. Of course it is easier to do that, but it is just the opposite of what out-of-the-box thinking is. So this article of predictions for Nihon in 2050 is just a wild guess, not natural scientific thinking !

Nihon has a very unique and creative mix of ideas, found no where else in the world. Of course the Japanese are influenced by ideas from other people (like every Homo sapiens is influenced by other Homo sapiens, which is called learning), but made some changes... like Shinto Naturalism (elaborated for a part from Daoism with its love for changes in Nature like the cherry blossoms in spring or the falling colored leaves in autumn), Zen Buddhism (elaborated from Buddhism in Korea/China, which in its turn elaborated from Indian Buddhism, which in its turn elaborated from Hinduism, etc...)... More recent examples are molecular genetics with molecular clock techniques (Motoo Kimura), spontaneous symmetry breaking or how our universe was made (Yoichiro Nambu), Plant neurobiology,... So you see, Japan is a very unique country to create black swans...it has a very promising future, especially if it focuses on other East-Asian countries (with the natural harmony between individuality and society), and leave the so inside-the-box US thinking behind...so Nihon can become a rich country by 2050 !

With animism you mean people believing in the power of a Roman torture machine, a 'holy' cross ?

@Patrick McPike

Since societies became realities after men settled down and left its hunter gatherer existence some 10000 years ago, societies became more and more complex intertwined. This created the possibility that some small out-of-the-box almost random event could have a big impact on society = black swan. For example, life without Internet now is unthinkable, but we as Homo sapiens lived 200000 years without Internet! This was difficult to predict...because life events in complex societies are uncertain in a sense (too many variables). The only certainty perhaps is that we all shall die some day...and even this is becoming uncertain with cryonics...They gave the astronauts cyanide for the dangers they would encounter that the engineers did/could not think of beforehand...

Star Trek during the 70 generation predicts that we would travel by ships to different galaxies... because they extrapolated the old naval ways of European sea discoverers. The only way seems at this moment to be by wormholes. You have a point in cellular phones though...but it was science FICTION then...

So you would predict the Unification of North with South Korea?

Economic predictions is not a natural science, but a mathematical game with changing axioms for the sake of making more money for the happy few.

Japan changed its paths several times during its History. From Neolithic Yomon to Tang dynasty like Heian period, from xenophobic shogunates to Modern Japan opening to Western industrialisation. It should change now its Post WWII/cold war period to an East-Asian Union period like the EU...

Japan is more influenced by Shinto Natural Philosophy and Zen Buddhism, then by Confucianism (still needed for structuring society though) as is Roman Catholicism is needed for structuring Western societies. You do go Xmas shopping? You do love US dollars, because "in God, we trust!". You need Shinto Naturalism and Zen to out of the box ideas and black swans, that is why Japanese society will continue to prosper in 2050 and beyond...

Addendum:... whale meat not that bad after all, despite what Eco-fascism groups like Greenpeace like to say...

Idea for the think tank about the elderly population: it is much better to have an active octogenarian or even centenarian non-demented population than a senile and demented 70 plus obese and smoking population struggling with metabolic syndrome (obesity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia) at risk of dying any moment of a heart attack, acute heart failure or a hormone-dependent cancer! Look at the healthy not demented centenarians in Okinawa, known since China's First Emperor Qin Shi HuangDi to have an active elderly population and considered by the WHO as World Longevity Region! So that ginseng, sweet potatoes, raw fish and whale meat are not that bad after all, despite what Eco-fascism groups like say...

Predicting the future is always is proofing to be difficult for Homo sapiens, because it is based on extrapolation of past events ! Who could predict in the 1970's that there would be cellular phones and Internet, and even that West-Germany would merge with East-Germany? On the other side, everyone predicted that there would already have been moon villages and men on Mars... So predicting how Japan would prosper in 2050 is plain guessing! One always underestimates the impact of the highly improbable on the future (black swan theory)! But one can create a society where there can be many successful "black swans"!

Japan is still a good society to create black swans, because it is not so much based on Roman Catholic or Confucianist orthodoxy. The dynamic elements are Zen-Buddhism, harmony between individuality and society, receptivity to learn or be inspired by Nature (Electrical Green cars, Nuclear Fusion, Space Rocketry, Genetic Modified Organisms...) or by other Homo sapiens (e.g. Kanji from China, Industralisation from UK/USA...). Of course there are also conservative forces like the Post World War II / Cold War Mentality, more or less imposed by the USA after beating "Kimigayo" in WWII, and dinosaurs like Ishihara...

Correction: all the MILLIONS USD in my last comment should be TRILLIONS USD! Sorry for the mistake!

Japan no longer a rich country in 2050? Only if Nihon does not change its foreign policy... but it will ! G20 figures for 2011 are: 1. USA with GDP of 15million USD; 2. China 7,5m nominally or 11,5m Purchasing Power Parity; 3. Japan 6m nominally or 4,5m PPP; 4. Germany 3,5m nominally or 3m PPP; 5. France 3m nominally or 2m PPP; 6. UK and Brazil both around 2,5m nominally = PPP; 8. Russia 2m nominally or 2,5m PPP;...10. India 1,5m nominally or 4,5m PPP...and Australia, South Korea and Indonesia around 1 to 1,5m nominally more or less equalling PPP.

It is obvious isn't it? Japan should change its policy and couple its economy to other East-Asian countries (China, Russia, India, United Korea, India and ASEAN countries like Indonesia,Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore), and try to create a common market (defended by a common military force), instead of relying too much for both its economy and military to the USA! Look at the example of the European Union with a total GDP of 17,5million USD nominally or 16m USD PPP...

@YuriOtani

I totally agree that Okinawa-ken (the former Ryukyu kingdom) has the most natural and legitimate claim over the Senkaku islands. Since the entire Sho imperial family was moved to Edo during the Tokugawa Shogunate (winning against the Qing dynasty), "Kimigayo" can make the most legitimate claim over these islands. These also implies that - because there is an absolute majority in Okinawa-ken for the abolishment of US military bases in Nihon and particularly in Okinawa-ken - these warmongering US military soldiers should leave at once and go home !

In the beautifully reconstructed Shuri-jo castle, there hangs a peace bell, constructed during the Sho-dynasty, called "The Bridge to ten thousands nations bell". This became a symbol of peace and prosperity for the whole of East-Asian nations (The shogunates in Honshu and Kyushu, Ming/Qing dynasties, Korean and South East Asian Kingdoms,...). Let's hope that this Okinawa-spirit can bring peace and prosperity again to the whole of East-Asia in the coming centuries (you need a very strong spine for this like the creators of the European Union...) !

During the 15th century during the Sho dynastiy of the Ryukyu kingdom these Senkaku islands were a bridge to the different empires (Shimadzu and Tokugawa shogunates in Nihon, Ming/Qing empires in China, Korean and South East Asian kingdoms like Majahpahit!). Let the Senkaku islands become a symbol again of harmony and prosperity in the whole of East Asia! Get rid of these American Gaijin neo-colonialists!

@sfjp330 and @OssanAmerica

Get the USA out of the area! USA has no claim whatsoever on these islands (including Okinawa) and should play its geopolitical games in America!

Ishihara is not an intelligent, even senile man! Joint exploitations of the Senkaku islands and its surrounding seas by Japan, Taiwan/China and perhaps other countries is the win-win scenario! Perhaps also joint military coorporation between Japan and Taiwan/China and even Korea, would make these islands an example of East-Asian integration (like the European Union between Germany, France and GB...)! Or are East-Asians still that stupid that they are stuck in a old post-WW II or Cold War mentality?

@bajhista65

I totally agree with you !

@yubaru.

Where is that Kimigayo spirit of the Nihonjin? You do realize by allowing US military bases on the holy Japanese soil, the Japanese government is now singing "Oooh say, can't you see, Japan is just a colony!" Get those 50000 plus American Military Gaijin out of Nihon, and as a matter of fact out of East-Asia, South-Korea included of course, so the North Korean problem can get solved! Let East-Asia not become a new Afghanistan or Iraq !

North Korea should proceed to unification with South Korea as soon as possible, so that Korea can become a powerful nation with the know-how to launch successfully missiles. Of course, this is contrary to US geopolitics... South Korea should remove its US military bases as Japan has to remove its military bases in Okinawa! A pan East Asian military force, meaning a military coorporation between Japan, China and a United Korea, is the way to go for East Asia, and for guaranteeing peace and prosperity for the 21st and the following centuries (see European Union and its common military coorporation between Germany, France, GB,...)!

"God save the Queen" and "Kimigayo" working together in military technology is a sound tactical or geopolitical move by Great Britain (GB) and a way out for Britain's financial debts, but all with too outdated technology ! This military cooperation is not so important for Japan's future as is the common free market between Japan, Korea and China, in which harmony and peace are much more important then useless military weapons... The same reasoning goes for those expensive and useless US military bases in Okinawa... If the "Emperor's Reign" is still considering military weapons for the next 8000 generations (until the moss grows on it...), better seek advanced rocket technology from USA, Russia or China and better look for a Common East Asian military force (like a common European military force as with France, Germany and GB). The best protection for Japan against Kim's North Korea, is cooperation with South Korea and China, and trying to solve the problems by kicking out the geopolitics of the USA in East-Asia and promoting reunification of the 2 Koreas (by getting those US military bases also out of South Korea) !

"God save the Queen" and "Kimigayo" working together in military technology is a sound tactical or geopolitical move by Great Britain (GB) and a way out for Britain's financial debts, but all with too outdated technology ! This military cooperation is not so important for Japan's future as is the common free market between Japan, Korea and China, in which harmony and peace are much more important then useless military weapons... The same reasoning goes for those expensive and useless US military bases in Okinawa... If the "Emperor's Reign" is still considering military weapons for the next 8000 generations (until the moss grows on it...), better seek advanced rocket technology from USA, Russia or China and better look for a Common East Asian military force (like a common European military force as with France, Germany and GB). The best protection for Japan against Kim's North Korea, is cooperation with South Korea and China, and trying to solve the problems by kicking out the geopolitics of the USA in East-Asia !

How to ameliorate the relations between Japan and China:

1/ The Chinese government should tell its Chinese citizens that the Japanese government officially admits that in december 1937 the Japanese Imperial Army seized the previous capital of Nanjing and committed a massacre of 200000 to 300000 people, including many civilians. HIROTA Koki (32nd prime minister and tried during the Tokyo trials for conducting the 1937 Nanjing massacre as foreign minister) and MATSUI Iwane (army general and commander-in-chief of the Central China Area Army, and tried during the Tokyo trials as being responsible for the Nanjing massacre) were considered as class A war criminals and sentenced to death, as was former prime minister TOJO Hideki.

Of course, one can always find a nutcase (like the present mayor of Nagoya) who will say the opposite, but to make such a thing an issue in the bilateral relations between China and Japan, shows of lack of intelligence on behalf of some Chinese nutcases !

2/ Get all American military bases out of Japan (US indiscriminate incendiary bombs on all major Japanese cities during WWII killed more civilians than the atomic bombings on Hiroshima and Nagasaki: the greatest single day massacre in the history of mankind happened during one night on March 10, 1945, when 100000 civilians died in Tokyo), and especially get those US bases out of Okinawa (the US Army killed 200000 Okinawan civilians during World War II).

On the other hand, China should let Japan become a permanent member of the UN security council and let Japan build an own army/navy/air force to defend themselves, perhaps with the cooperation of the Chinese PLA (like the French do with Germans in the context of a common European military force).

3/ Strengthen further the bilateral economic ties (perhaps exploiting togeter the Senkaku islands) and making both the Japan and Chinese economies less dependent on the US economy and the US dollar.