Kay Bow comments

Posted in: Tokyo reports 389 more cases of coronavirus See in context


are so many people still masking up in Tokyo?

In Kyoto, the percentage just keeps dropping both indoors and outdoors. I’d guess it’s down to 50% these days... that’s been a big bummer.

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Posted in: Osaka, other urban areas see record daily new coronavirus cases See in context


Please stop staying young and healthy will be fine - plenty of evidence to the contrary. 20% to 30% is not that great... and it’s certainly not 1% or .01% as some people claim.

It amazes me how hard people will work to rationalize / justify / defend “the world is safe, predictable, and fair” view to themselves, including by minimizing suffering and loss of others.

How many stories have I had to read of people who didn’t believe this was serious and then got severely ill and / or died, saying “I regret this - please take it seriously.”

A sample but many more out there like this: https://www.google.co.jp/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/woman-almost-died-from-coronavirus-regrets-not-wearing-a-mask-2020-7%3famp




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Posted in: Tokyo governor calls for restraint in travel during Obon holidays See in context


Corona virus is here to stay

Nah, eventually all the people who are gonna get it will have gotten it.

Not all viruses work like that.

Some viruses - if you catch and survive it - then confer lifelong immunity more or less. But the existing coronavirus strains capable of infecting humans that are responsible for giving us the common cold do NOT confer lifelong immunity. Our immune systems forget that coronavirus and then people get reinfected again and again over the years. So we can’t assume that “everyone will eventually get it and it’ll be over.”

A few working hypotheses about this now:

There’s evidence showing those who got severely sick from COVID-19 have longer lasting antibodies (consistent with other pathogens, where our immune systems generally tend to remember things that caused severe illness) more so than those who were only mildly ill. Also, as we get older, our immune systems weaken - including the memory cells of the immune system - so it might keep hitting certain parts of the population.

You might think the above point could be bad news for vaccines (like, “if it turns out our body really doesn’t remember COVID19 long-term after all, wouldn’t a vaccine for it be forgotten too?”) but so far, it looks like a higher dose of the vaccine can lead to higher concentrations of antibodies in the blood than if you actually had COVID19. Combined with a course of shots instead of just a 1 time deal it might just work. (Measles, mumps, rubella, hepatits, etc — all vaccines that require booster shot courses.)

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Posted in: Tokyo governor calls for restraint in travel during Obon holidays See in context


the possibility of their never being a vaccine is very, very high. Purely my view of course. but the more you read in broadsheet media including comments from those who are involved in developing vaccines lead me to think that way. The only virus we have ever eradicated is Smallpox and that took a 15 year sustained effort by the whole planet, quite literally.

There’s a couple things here mixed together. First, plenty of other viruses have effective enough vaccines (not 100% but say 80-90%) that we are able to control the spread to the point that it becomes almost entirely snuffed out (except when we get pockets of people who aren’t vaccinated, like the religious commune in Mie in 2019 creating an outbreak). So we don’t need a vaccine to eradicate something to do the job. It’s not all or nothing like that.

Experts have suggested that even a partially effective vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 could go a long way to getting us to herd immunity and breaking the transmission chain.

Second, smallpox eradication took 15 years... well, I’d just humbly propose that science, technology, international transportation, etc. have come a loooong way since the 1960-1970s. For example, the SARS-CoV-2 genome was obtained in mere days and now we have over 100 candidate vaccines after just 7 months, some of which have proceeded to Phase III testing. So adjust your “15 years or impossible” time table to account for our improved ability to innovate....

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Posted in: Tokyo governor calls for restraint in travel during Obon holidays See in context


All viruses mutate to be less deadly to humans not more because they don't want to kill their hosts. If their hosts die they die with them, they'd rather stay hidden.

All viruses? Not really.

That’s a theoretical principle based on how evolution generally works but it’s not an absolute.

Ebola? Smallpox? Bubonic Plague? These didn’t become less deadly - we just developed measures to combat them ranging from strict quarantines to vaccines to antibiotics. Please don’t assume the virus will become gentler with time.

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Posted in: Japan's summer season transformed by coronavirus See in context


Sure, I understand sun is important for mental health (seasonal affective disorder is a good example) but getting sun doesn’t need to be synonymous with engaging in activities counterproductive to viral mitigation (like crowded matsuri or hanabi taikai) as some folks on here are proposing. Be well~

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Posted in: Japan's summer season transformed by coronavirus See in context

Not sure why the down votes for stating a scientific fact...

You can check for yourself if you doubt vitamin D can be obtained via dietary sources just fine...


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Posted in: Japan's summer season transformed by coronavirus See in context

All these posts saying something along the lines of “get some sunlight because we need vitamin D to have strong immune systems” must be fairly uninformed about vitamin D synthesis.

Sunlight isn’t the only means of getting Vitamin D. Dietary means of vitamin D can be perfectly efficient / potent. For example, a serving of salmon contains over 100% of vitamin D dosing for a day. Same with shiitake and some other mushrooms (particularly if they are placed in the sun gills up before cooking).

So no, please don’t use vitamin D as an reason to invalidate viral mitigation measures.

For what it’s worth, I have lupus, which entails allergies (organ damage) to UV light in the sun. Guess what? I have a perfectly healthy level of vitamin D even while avoiding the sun thanks to dietary sources (salmon, shiitake, etc.).

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Posted in: Japan's daily coronavirus cases top 1,000 for 1st time; Iwate reports first cases See in context


That claim that 90% of people in Japan are immune and that the majority of people was already infected is NOT supported by the scientific evidence, such as antibody tests conducted by the government. Even in the US where the pandemic has been hitting much harder, only about 1% of Americans have tested positive, with CDC estimating the actual number of exposed to be 10x greater. That means approx. 10% of the US has been exposed...

In mid-June in Japan, the antibody study found only about 0.1 to 0.3% of the population (depending on prefecture) was estimated to have been exposed to and recovered from COVID19 (even unknowingly) based on testing a representative sample of the population. Less than 1% of people in Japan has COVID19 antibodies...


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