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Koyomi comments

Posted in: Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo prefectures to request state of emergency See in context

Publicly the government is being advised that they must implement such measures in order to curb the spread of the virus. Behind closed doors, are they being advised the same thing? In fact, it is very much conceivable that the scientific advise being given is that an SOE or Lockdown is not going to have any effect on the virus's spread, that it will come and go without any human intervention, largely with the flu season which it has mostly replaced (SARS Cov-2 has largely displaced influenza A and B this year, but not rhinovirus). So, the SOE is a publicity act to make it look like they are doing something, when in fact they know it won't have an effect—this is why they want to make it have as little economic impact as possible. The opposite is akin to burning down one's house in order to destroy a hornet's nest. Yes, you destroy the nest (according to the common logic), but you also destroy the house. It may be that Japan's government is the only one in the developed world which has some understanding of how the virus is spreading.

-8 ( +1 / -9 )

Posted in: Vaccine mistrust in Japan dates back decades See in context

The narrative these days is begging the question: is a rushed and untried vaccine the solution to SARS CoV-2? Are there not other, more reliable solutions? How about improving immunity, boosting vitamin D, getting exercise and sunlight? These will not only protect against severe reactions to SARS CoV-2, but any viruses or diseases.

Vaccines are the solution to a wide range of diseases and viruses in the world. After many years of testing, they are gradually and carefully reviewed and approved. Without them we would have a very diseased world, consequently, our current state of existence is comparatively luxurious from a health perspective. Will we also benefit from hiding inside our homes and destroying our immunity and ability to pay for a health care system as a nation over many months just to get a vaccine for something whose effects is roughly similar to a typical year's flu season? What if rather than having almost no chance of getting any symptoms from the virus, one ends up in anaphylaxis? And at the same time, what if herd immunity through prior infection is achieved by the time the vaccine is widely available to the public? At that point, is it not useless to us?

Well these things all need to be weighed, and I am not against getting a vaccine. As I stated, they are important tools of our civilisation. But if it ends up being a waste of time or too much of a risk, then there's no point.

-2 ( +6 / -8 )

Posted in: Study links Go To Travel campaign to increased COVID-19 symptoms See in context

The campaign began long before the current wave, while the previous wave was subsiding. The wave clearly is seasonal. It is therefore still worthwhile promoting the maintenance of businesses which would otherwise suffer—poor livelihood will harm more than the virus.

However, the methodology used in this study, as others have noted, is not sound. Less than 1% increase in reported symptoms is not statistically relevant—no tests involved, no mention of peer review, and the text of this "study" which is quoted cannot be found when it is searched online except for the NYT.

The quoted conclusion, moreover, is not that the "study links" the campaign to infection, but that it "may" be incentivising higher risk individuals into travelling—these are not the same thing. The reporting here is pretty shoddy and essentially tabloid quality.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Posted in: Are you becoming numb to the daily reports of surging coronavirus cases or does it still worry you when you see each day's figures? See in context

While I was earlier in the year, now, I am not worried about cases, since they are somewhat meaningless without further context (e.g. number of PCR cycles, whether they are a cluster, whether they are elderly or young, what symptoms they have, and so forth).

What is concerning is death numbers, which will give you a more accurate picture of how severe the virus is at any given point, as well as how many people in at-risk groups are getting infected.

On the other hand, I agree overall that it is not lethal enough to warrant the attention it gets. If we had a daily ticker for suicide deaths or another disease—including influenza in normal years—we would be able to put this into perspective. Compassion is not the same as worry—love does not necessitate mental anguish, but seeing what needs to be done level-headedly and doing it.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: When a vaccine that is proven to be effective against COVID-19 becomes available to all, will you take it? See in context

It is less bother to take vitamin D and maintain a healthy lifestyle—these are more than 90% effective.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Posted in: Biden takes Arizona; Trump refuses to concede See in context

Just as Gore and Clinton did not concede but challenged the results until December, Trump is within his rights to challenge it. Biden broke his promise not to wait until delegates had been certified.

-11 ( +3 / -14 )

Posted in: Japan not in situation to declare state of emergency over COVID-19, Suga says See in context

The summer curve was flattened without any measures and without any notable increase in mortality. Suga's policy makes complete sense if we follow the data.

-10 ( +4 / -14 )

Posted in: Spike in calls from empty houses to fire department in Akita City baffles authorities See in context

There are dozens of ways to spoof phone numbers. Doing it on a landline physically would require an orange box, but this can be done digitally with software. Phone hacking is more believable to me than the wind explanation or the idea that it's rotary phones to blame. There are plenty of funny videos online of spoofing as a prank, but when it's done to call the fire department it's no longer a joke and is sick.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

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