COVID-19 INFORMATION What you need to know about the coronavirus if you are living in Japan or planning a visit.

Luis David Yanez comments

Posted in: Trump's push to open U.S. economy could come at cost of lives See in context

If we use half a million as the number of lives that the pandemic will take, how does that compare to the numbers that will die if everyone takes a month off if work?

Let's put everything in perspective.

People haven't been putting too much attention, because right now they only care about the new coronavirus, but the current flu season (mostly A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Victoria, A(H3N2)) has been actually pretty bad, which actually is one of the reasons there are way less beds available in hospitals right now.

There are en estimated 0.45-1.2 million deaths already, so there is your over half a million already, but from a different disease.

And here is the thing, people doesn't seem to care that much if millions die from any other disease, but when it comes to the coronavirus, for some reason only then we need to start to take those deaths seriously.

I would say, at least be consistent and ask for constant lock-downs every year, whenever the "normal" flu is killing thousands.

Now, about your "taking a month off of work", it depends a lot on the industry, and for the most part, specially in industries that require people doing stuff all year long, those vacations are spread around the year, which means that the number of people working at any given times is about the same.

This isn't a paid vacation, we are basically stopping the whole world for who knows how long, and with who knows what consequences. Just think about mental health problems that will arise from this. It is like, right now, people with depression, or people with anxiety disorders do not matter.

There will be, and probably already it's already ongoing, a spike in suicides because of all these measures.

And that doesn't even consider the fact that many of the civil right restrictions put in place today, as history shows us, will remain in place, and will be used for a completely different reason, and something that was once seen as a violation on basic human rights, will be seen as the new normal.

Just look at 9/11. After almost 20 years, the patriot act is still in place, and what was once thought as a violation of human rights, is now the law of the land.

So yeah. Once again, pick your poison.

What I fear is that, because most people are just in pure panic mode, as it usually happens in these instances, the poison people will pick isn't a rational one that actually causes the less suffering, but the one who "feels" right at that moment in time, to calm down their own panic.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Posted in: Trump's push to open U.S. economy could come at cost of lives See in context

For some reason people think only about the now, and never the future.

A large economic recession will take more lives and make life miserable for many years to come. So take your poison, but what I'm mostly sure is that, when everyone starts to struggle to pay their most basic bills, they will start to consider that, maybe, just maybe, it was a little of an overreaction.

I mean, of course no one wants to see people die, but for some reason we never go into full lockdown mode, or no one seems to really care about the millions of people who die from preventable contagious diseases every single year.

I don't think most people even are aware of the real risks of this pandemic, which means that they cannot even take a good risk assessment, and just panic because they believe their life is in danger.

-4 ( +4 / -8 )

Posted in: High hug See in context

A cute young couple not panicking as much as everyone else!?

They deserve jail.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Posted in: Shares tumble as as Tokyo gov't tries to contain virus See in context

It's going to be a global economic recession that is going to last for many years to come, so yeah.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

Posted in: Tokyo's delayed Olympics: Who pays bills for another year? See in context

Answer: Taxpayers

6 ( +6 / -0 )

Posted in: Telework, stockpiling spread in Tokyo after Koike's press conference See in context

Why take reasonable measures when you can just panic and make life even more miserable for everyone else?

22 ( +30 / -8 )

Posted in: Some schools in Japan resume classes after virus-prompted closures See in context

And what if there will be an outbreak in those school areas?

Actually, WHO and medical professionals have been saying that closing schools, and all these "drastic measures" of closing everything isn't really going to stop the virus. The way to stop it is to focus on exactly the points of the epidemic, just like they did in South Korea, so these movements have been more political than really medical.

So yeah, if there is an outbreak in the school it would make more sense to then close the school.

There are a number of locations here in Japan where children have caught it!

Kids do catch it, but there is basically a 0% death rate for those under 10.

Why do I feel like this is the calm before the storm?

Because you are experiencing the symptoms of mass hysteria.

If anything, the only really terrifying storm there could be is that of even more mass hysteria.

I'm struggling to figure out what is up with Japan. Most TV channels here are still talking about a lack of masks/hand sanitizer and how to get students back to school ASAP and how to save the Olympics.

Here is the thing, Japan for the most part is inmune to the world wide mass media. Japan did had for a while its panic moment, and it is still a little bit in panic mode, but for the most part it hasn't reached the levels of insanity seen outside of Japan.

If anything, I'm glad at this point that I live in Japan in these times, since the measures aren't as crazy and overblown as in many other countries.

I was worried about the new emergency powers law in Japan, but after seen how other European countries reacted to this... man, I'm glad I'm here.

A positive sign of normality. Only fearmongers get disappointed?

When there is mass histeria, the irrationality of the hysteria makes it so that they only focus on any negative point, to the point of trying to turn a positive into a negative.

That's why there are so many conspiracy theories going around.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

Posted in: U.S. suspends travel from 26 European countries, excluding UK, Ireland, for next 30 days See in context

What does you people mean?

People who become panicky, and their words only create more panic.

Basically the equivalent of starting to scream fire in a movie theater.

Stock market is crashing. Trump is running the US like his casinos. Should have put a real business pro in charge like Bill Gates.

All is because of panic. You should have put someone with brain, and with a little bit more scientific literacy, or just a little bit more of rational thinking so that his actions are not just gut reactions of the moment.

3 ( +7 / -4 )

Posted in: U.S. suspends travel from 26 European countries, excluding UK, Ireland, for next 30 days See in context

Globally we have mortality of 3.67%. South Korea 0.84%. Italy however is 6.6%.

I have calculated all these numbers myself just now from official statistics. What are you using?

Once again, trying to measure just from pure confirmed results will give you higher than actual mortality rate, this is a fact in epidemiology, and something that medical professionals understand when treating pandemics, that's why for the most part they don't want to give any mortality rate, until there is enough data to have one, and even then they just give probable ranges.

There are many papers that put the mortality rate way bellow of 1% because, as I just said, we need to think about all the asymptomatic and under reported cases. Critical and serious cases are more likely to get reported than the asymptomatic and mild cases.

South Korea has the lowest death rate because they did extensive testing of all people related to one of the clusters (which was a church), and found out a lot of asymptomatic and mild cases that would have otherwise been under-reported. That's also why 99% of reported cases in South Korea are deemed "Mild" (Which includes asymptomatic cases).

Italy in the other hand, didn't really started to test that extensively until there were a lot of dead people.

Just because of the unusually high death rate, experts predict that the number of actual infected people in Italy is a magnitude of times higher than the confirmed cases.

In China, something similar happened, because it started to become obvious that the number of confirmed cases was waaaaay lower than the actual number of cases, so China started to count all "symptomatic cases" even if unconfirmed into their counts, which is why you can see a big spike in numbers in February.

What this also means is that, for the most part China didn't really cared that much about asymptomatic cases, which means that probably the number of infected in China was a magnitude of times higher than the reported cases.

2 ( +7 / -5 )

Posted in: U.S. suspends travel from 26 European countries, excluding UK, Ireland, for next 30 days See in context

The WHO just declared a pandemic about 12 hours ago.

Also from the same announcement:

"Describing the situation as a pandemic does not change WHO's assessment of threat posed by this coronavirus. It doesn't change what WHO is doing, and it doesn't change what countries should do"

A pandemic declaration is nothing more than a formality to reflect the reality of the situation.

Pandemic only means how widespread the virus is. What this says is that its quite widespread.

I'm not downplaying what this is, you people are the one becoming all panicked about this and every other announcement because you don't even understand they mean.

The 2009 swine flu was also a pandemic, and it was really not that different from the regular flu season.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

Posted in: U.S. suspends travel from 26 European countries, excluding UK, Ireland, for next 30 days See in context

On the other hand we can also postulate from from the Korean data that there are a lot of un diagnosed cases in the world now. We cannot calculate a statistic from this without additional data.

We cannot calculate a 100% accurate statistic, but we can approach it by looking at previous epidemics, the usual growth and the death rate variance from different size data samples in the past.

Once again, experts say that the number of cases IS bigger than the confirmed ones. The epidemiology is really clear in these cases. We know that most of the cases, even confirmed ones, are mild or asymptomatic, so this means that there are a lot of people who had no symptoms or mild symptoms that probably didn't even thought of going to the doctor, because they never do with the flu.

And also, thing is, when you reach the pandemic state, it is really difficult to get actual numbers of all of the infected people.

Most pandemic statistics use approximation models exactly because of this.

There wasn't ever a clear figure of how many people got infected by swine flu, but all models put it at around 11-21% of the world population.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

Posted in: U.S. suspends travel from 26 European countries, excluding UK, Ireland, for next 30 days See in context

Guessing at how many people get a virus vs. how many die is a guess. Calculating the number of people who die to the confirmed cases is a statistic.

Back in the swine flu days, the death rate went from about 7% to 0.03%.

It is a good measure for scientists, because they understand what the number actually means, but it is meaningless for all the general public screaming in fear and hoarding toilet paper, who do not understand the basics of epidemiology.

The death rate variate a lot from location to location. Even within china, wuhan has a completely different death rate than the rest of china.

Once again, epidemiologists understand this, and use this number as an statistic number, but I've seen so many none scientists using this number to justify their panic that is worth pointing out.

Also, I must point out that all these measures are not thought by epidemiology experts, they are always politicians that care more about face than the reality of what is going on. Experts have actually advised against swiping travel ban, as they recognize that for the most part are noneffective as a way to fight the spread of the virus, but for politicians, and most of the people, it feels like "doing something", which somehow is better than doing nothing in their heads, but doing nothing in many cases is actually better.

Follow the indications of what expert say. Doing more than that is arrogant and stupid.

-9 ( +2 / -11 )

Posted in: U.S. suspends travel from 26 European countries, excluding UK, Ireland, for next 30 days See in context

No, you cannot. Human being is not equipped with ability to see the future.

I don't need to see the future to extrapolate how things are going to a near future.

Unless the epidemiology of this virus somehow transforms into a extremely dangerous virus, in the future this will be seen as a overreaction.

The death rate right now is extremely inflated because the number of confirmed cases is way lower than the actual number of cases.

Diamond princess proved this, since about 400 of the 700 cases were asymptomatic.

South Korea with extensive testing came to the conclusion that the actual mortality rate of the virus is around 0.03%, which is basically the same as the flu.

So yeah, In the future, after the hype has died out, more clear numbers start to roll out, and the economic impact of these measures take its toll, yeah, it will probably will be seen as an overreaction.

-5 ( +8 / -13 )

Posted in: U.S. suspends travel from 26 European countries, excluding UK, Ireland, for next 30 days See in context

Bye bye global economy.

As things are going this can become an even worst economic recession than the 2008 one.

This is a gross overreaction with no real risk management thought put into it, but people in complete panic will be thrilled.

I can already see a few years from now people asking themselves why there was much panic and overreaction from this.

-6 ( +7 / -13 )

Posted in: Japan lifts evacuation order for part of disaster-hit Fukushima town See in context

Try living in a town where some areas have the evacuation lifted but others remain in place. 

I don't even get what you are complaining about anymore. Are you complaining that they lifted the evacuation orders for some zones than have a radiation less than the set limit by the government? Then why at the same time you talk about the limit as being this absolute thing that everyone should protect... I really don't get your point at all.

And you can rest assured that even if radiation levels were at 0, and they lifted every single evacuation order, and there was absolutely nothing going on in that place, people would still not go back because:

1) It has been almost 10 years since they had to leave, so all infrastructure is gone, and would have to start from scratch

2) Just like they have showed with the corona induced panic, or any other hype panic that has happened in this new social media world, people will always overestimate any risks and will fear that which they do not understand.

Why have radiation exposure limits?

As a "better to be safe than sorry" security theater kind of protection measure. There are a lot of those in many different industries. For example, making it illegal for people to have active cellphones inside a plane is another one, because modern planes have very good electromagnetic shielding that wouldn't interfere with the avionics, and basically all cellphone use well known standards, and planes are actually tested to be resistant to electromagnetic interference by these standards, but once again, "better to be safe than sorry" mentality.

Two workers at the nearby nuclear disaster have died from radiation exposure.

That's not true. There is only 1 cancer death attributed to radiation exposure, and there were none because of acute radiation poisoning, or anything like that.

There were also other 2 who presented probable radiation burns, but did not died from them.

And were are talking about people who were near the plant at the time. As I explained before, a short time exposure to extremely high levels of radiation can be fatal, but this does not translate the same to places with elevated background radiation.

Increase in child thyroid cancers

And this right here shows how little you understand how radiation actually works. The idea that there is an increase in thyroid cancer, specially in children, in nuclear disasters come from Chernobyl, where there was a very visible bump years latter after the disaster of thyroid cancer.

The mechanism how this works is rather interesting. The main culprit is iodine, iodine-131 to be precise. This one isotope, from a nuclear disaster, goes down on to the fields with rain. Then cows eat grass with iodine-131, and it starts to accumulate in high quantities in the mammal glands of the cows, and in the milk they produce.

This milk containing iodine-131 is then drink by children, and the iodine-131 starts to accumulate in the Thyroid gland, so the radiation is now directly in the thyroid gland, and continuous consumption of this milk will increase the amount of radiation inside the thyroid gland, which in time can cause thyroid cancer.

Lets be clear, the same amount of radiation, as a external exposure would do nothing, most of it being gama-radiation and all, but the radiation is being absorbed directly by a very sensitive gland inside the body itself, so the situation is rather unique.

The solution? Test the milk that is sold in the market, and they already do, so the probability of this happening in Japan is extremely low, not to mention that all reports on the disaster show no visible increase in any type of cancer post disaster.

Not to mention that Thyroid cancer is one of the most tame types of cancer, with over 98% survival rate.

 Foodstuffs like rice with higher levels of radiation than permitted.

This is all relative stuff. Every food has radioactive isotopes even if there wasn't a nuclear disaster anywhere near.

Most types of radioactive isotopes are non biologically relevant, so they do not accumulate in the body. The iodine-131 I told you is a rather unique case, and since it has a half-life of about 8 days, all of the Iodine-131 disappeared years ago.

So no, consuming food with a little bit elevated levels of radiation do nothing.

And I know you won't believe anything I'm saying, because it is completely contrary to the popular idea of how radiation works, but non the less, it is how it is. Radiation is far less dangerous than how popular media presents it.

It doesn't mean there are no risks, but it means that you can relax a little bit.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Asian stocks plunge; Nikkei falls below 20,000, yen surges See in context

Congratulations everyone.

We have made it, we proved that we can destroy the economy and society because of a new flu virus.

I wonder how many people will die from a probable corona-panic induced world recession.

It will probably be higher than the deaths from the actual virus.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Posted in: Japan lifts evacuation order for part of disaster-hit Fukushima town See in context

Whatever, but that is the law/regulation set by the government. That is how they decide whether or not to lift the evacuation order. I am not responsible for that. You can try and take up the issue with them.

Well, they already lifted the evacuation order... Japan not following its own rules shouldn't be something that surprises you if you have lived here enough time. The main reason why that happens in because Japan lawmaking is so obtuse that trying to change anything is almost imposible, so that's why the government itself doesn't follow the laws, which makes them meaningless, and since there is no good judiciary in this country, they can do whatever they want, but that is another discussion.

 Unlikely any time in the future will people be allowed to return.

And that's just a shame. It is also a shame that humans aren't really that rational, and most actions, individual or by governmental actions, are irrational in nature.

I can just watch the people and government continue to do irrational things, while slowly but surely my own human rights get striped away by these actions.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan lifts evacuation order for part of disaster-hit Fukushima town See in context

So nothing wrong with my maths.

Yes sorry a typo and not editor. The limit is 20 millisievert per year.

Yes, your math was all ok, with a little discrepancy with a factor of 8760.

About radiation levels, background radiation variate a lot from place to place. There are a lot of spots in the US, Europe, where you can find background radiation up to 10 μSv/h. Rome is a good example, the city itself for some reason has an elevated background radiation, there are beaches in Brazil, which are tourist attractions, with radiation levels of 175 mSv/year, then there is Ramsar, Iran, with a background radiation of over 250 mSv/year, and where studies have shown that people in living there have actually lower cancer rates.

This is a well known fact about radiation, but long exposures to elevated levels of background radiation doesn't seem to have that much of an effect on people's health. The real problem appears if there is accumulation of this background radiation in the body, or if someone is exposed to very high levels of radiation for shorts periods of time.

The 20 mSv/year rule by the Japanese government is somewhat arbitrary, it is based on normal base background radiation of japan, which has naturally low background radiation, and it is intended to be way lower than any levels of radiation that would actually be bad for people.

So, you can freak out for some spots going over the 20 mSv/year rule, but unless you also freak about all of the spots around the world with naturally high radiation levels, it is a little bit hypocrite.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Posted in: Japan lifts evacuation order for part of disaster-hit Fukushima town See in context

So nothing wrong with my maths.

Yes sorry a typo and not editor. The limit is 20 millisievert per year.

Yes, your math was all ok, with a little discrepancy with a factor of 8760.

About radiation levels, background radiation variate a lot from place to place. There are a lot of spots in the US, Europe, where you can find background radiation up to 10 μSv/h. Rome is a good example, the city itself for some reason has an elevated background radiation, there are beaches in Brazil, which are tourist attractions, with radiation levels of 175 mSv/year, then there is Ramsar, Iran, with a background radiation of over 250 mSv/year, and where studies have shown that people in living there have actually lower cancer rates.

This is a well known fact about radiation, but long exposures to elevated levels of background radiation doesn't seem to have that much of an effect on people's health. The real problem appears if there is accumulation of this background radiation in the body, or if someone is exposed to very high levels of radiation for shorts periods of time.

The 20 mSv/year rule by the Japanese government is somewhat arbitrary, it is based on normal base background radiation of japan, which has naturally low background radiation, and it is intended to be way lower than any levels of radiation that would actually be bad for people.

So, you can freak out for some spots going over the 20 mSv/year rule, but unless you also freak about all of the spots around the world with naturally high radiation levels, it is a little bit hypocrite.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Posted in: Japan eyes emergency coronavirus legislation as infections rise See in context

Happy to be your hero. IMO the government response has been abysmal - from a compromised immune system elder. This is a step in the right direction - just late

You are right sir, you are a true hero. It's not like someone with a compromised immune system should be always aware of the risks, since medical problems thought as minor can become a great problem if your inmune system is not strong enough to fight the problem.

Of course not, this one requires common sense prevention techniques to avoid becoming infected, so it makes sense for everyone to freak out for the minority of people immunodeficient, because we all know that it isn't that people are panicking thinking this might kill them, not at all, it is that all of them are just worried about the immunodeficient people of the world, that must be it.

Also, you are so right to think this is a step in the right direction. In the worst of cases, if we get too scared we can always try to burn people alive so that the virus doesn't spread to healthy people. It is an emergency, so we can escalate things as much as it makes people reassured.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan lifts evacuation order for part of disaster-hit Fukushima town See in context

Looking at a radiation map parts of Futaba 6.1 microsiverts per hour. Okuma 7.6 microsieverts per hour. Both above the legal limits of 20 millisievert per hour

Erm... how is 6.1 MICRO more than 20 MILLI?

20 MILLI is 20000 MICRO. 6.1 MICRO is 0.0061 MILLI.

This is the level of scientific literature most anti nuclear folks have...

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Posted in: Japan eyes emergency coronavirus legislation as infections rise See in context

This is a completely reasonable response.

I mean, 15 people from a population of over 120 million have died, that's like 0.00001% of the population, so taking away the liberties and rights of the 99.999% of the population that is not affected by this is a completely reasonable response to this.

This in no way is panic, don't you believe is panic, you are in the right, hoarding toilet paper, counting the number of infected every day and watching obsessively news on the virus is completely normal and sane behavior.

You are scared, so let papa government take care of the matter, they obviously know what they are doing, and this is in no way exploiting a pandemic in order for the executive to grab more power.

I'm looking forward getting arrested for going outside without government permission. I'll be also trilled if they implanted a GPS under my skin so that papa government can take better care of me, like he always do.

Thank you all for being so reasonable that you care more about if this is ENOUGH of a measure, and do not really care of the mayor implications on the human rights and liberties of this country.

You are all heroes.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

Posted in: Media faces challenges in covering coronavirus outbreak See in context

News organizations trying to responsibly report on the growing health crisis are confronted with the task of conveying its seriousness without provoking panic

Is that why news organizations report on anything, even if highly speculative or irrelevant, if you can make use of the name "corona virus" for its title, and also try to tie every single story with the corona virus?

I mean, in the last month I don't feel like I've been able to see that many news about anything else than the corona virus.

You don't need to do a 24 hour coverage of the "spread of the virus". It just creates anxiety, and makes it completely lose perspective.

Let's remember that even in the most affected areas, not even the 1% of the population of that area has been affected by the virus, but after reading some news about the corona virus, you get the sense that it is destroying the whole world.

This is NOT cool. But news organizations cannot help themselves, creating panic is good for business.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: Angry confrontation breaks out after man coughs on Yamanote Line train in Tokyo See in context

I'm not going out, not because I'm afraid of the virus, but because I'm afraid of irrational hysteric masses.

If you are so afraid that someone coughing is enough reason to go ballistic, then you should also stay at home.

But the collective has decided that been hysteric, and worrying about the corona virus as if it was the T-virus from Resident Evil is normal now, so you better stop living your normal life, and get with the hysteria program.

I mean, just a few days ago, I remember some semi-famous person who posted about their trip to a ski-resort was meet with vitriolic in Twitter because "why are you having fun in these serious times?"

3 ( +6 / -3 )

Posted in: Outbreak starts to look more like worldwide economic crisis See in context

I'm so proud of you, World.

You just proved that pure human stupidity can cause an economic disaster.

-1 ( +6 / -7 )

Posted in: Store shelves stripped of toilet paper amid coronavirus fears See in context

Welcome to panic-land.

Irrational responses to irrational fear.

First time in my life I see Costco out of toilet paper.

But yeah, even thou the global numbers of the infected are on a down thread, even thou unless you are over 70, you really shouldn't worry about this virus, even thou this is helping literally nobody and is creating unnecessary anxiety and societal problems, I'm sure people are just going to down vote this for not spreading more panic and misinformation.

Welcome to the age of infodemics...

19 ( +22 / -3 )

Posted in: Woman confirmed as coronavirus case for 2nd time, weeks after initial recovery See in context

These levels of hysteria are ridiculous.

There have been over 30000 recoveries, and there is no report of any of them getting it again, so this story is kind of just pure panic.

It's extremely bad taste, and even dangerous how news sites are spreading this panic oriented stories. If you look at it, there have not been any stories about China, because the trend is actually down in China, so there isn't any alarmist or panic inducing story from China.

Shame on the mass-media.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: Time is everything: World braces for spread of new virus See in context

I actually think China has done the right thing as far as doing their best to contain the virus within China. They unilaterally cancelled all outbound tour groups and locked down cities. For this China's response (although some may call it authoritarian in nature) is commendable. No once can blame China for this at all and China should be commended.

For me, this is the most scary thing about this virus. How people see these obviously overblown responses as "commendable".

The virus has a mortality rate of about 2%, for people age 0~10 is 0%, for people aged 11~39 is about 0.2%, for people aged 40~49 is 0.4%.

Most people who have died from this are people immunodeficient, so yeah, it is good to try to protect these people and make use of rational risk management techniques to try to contain the virus so that it doesn't affect these vulnerable groups, but locking down cities, basically violating millions and millions of people's freedom of movement just for this is not a good response from a risk management stand point.

Everyone should blame China for, once again, violating the basic human rights of its citizens, but because people have caught the pandemic panic virus, their normal responses are inhibited.

Are you of the belief that governments (not only China but the U.S., Japan, etc.) are sharing all information they have? My experience from my work long long ago in the U.S. would have me say absolutely not. There is certainly information in China (and outside of China) we as average citizens do not know.

Never said anything as such. But it isn't like the virus is property of the government, or scientists only work for the government. Many scientists all around the world have studied this virus, and all reach the same conclusions.

This virus even thou it has the potential of creating a big pandemic, right now it is not that big of a deal, and it can be contained with common sense practices.

Obsessing over the exact number of people that are getting infected day by day, without the proper context of population density, total population, age of patients, etc, etc, specially by people who are not experts in this field, is not going to give you any useful information, and most reactions I've seen are just plain irrational panic.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Posted in: Time is everything: World braces for spread of new virus See in context

Based on this I believe that China considers the risk of this virus to be very high, even extreme or they would not take such severe measures.

This was going to take an economic hit either way, because irrational panic and fear is way more influential than good rational risk management.

Basically what they did is take the most extreme measures so than none can blame China for not doing what necessary, for whatever spread of the virus, or any chaos outside China.

The virus is well known, and I'm sure that international virology experts know better the risks than a highly corrupt, incompetent and fractured authoritarian political institution like the CCP.

But people love to think that governments of the world have super secret information so that their crazy conspiracy theories might survive.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Posted in: Time is everything: World braces for spread of new virus See in context

I do not think the CCP would do this unless they thought this was a very high risk.

Then clearly you are not very clear as how the CCP works.

They are willing to violate everyone's basic human rights and freedom just to protect the image of China.

They are way more worried about the bad press this is creating than anything else.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

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