Luis David Yanez comments

Posted in: Tokyo Disney parks cancel Halloween, Christmas, other seasonal events See in context

Yeah, because corona like Halloween and Christmas...

These measures makes absolutely no sense, but they just apply it to seem like they are doing something.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Posted in: Japanese rapper Kan a.k.a. GAMI arrested for marijuana possession See in context

when will Japan see that cannabis is a medicinal tool.

Well, you can actually legally get CBD based products in Japan.

I actually have been using CBD for anxiety for about a month now.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

You take it off to eat, but you put it on when the waiting staff come to your table or when you leave your table to go to the bathroom etc. I would have thought this would be quite obvious.

No one was doing that, so I don't see where the obvious part is in that.

Luis - given what you say elsewhere, I think it is highly unlikely that you have been reading the scientific literature either

Wanna bet?

Here is a list of a lot of PCR and Serological studies around the world that try to calculate the IFR of the virus:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc

An analysis of many Serological studies to get a general IFR, and that shows the problems with a single IFR:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2?fbclid=IwAR1CqmQ-e-vARRlA2_byyJ0WYcODRy-EME63ZY3GjWx9T0Ee4Z51KTm9SME

Here is a paper that talks about mortality on people under 65.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1.full.pdf

Here is a paper that shows the problems with outbreaks in nursing homes (With an specific view of Sweden, but it really applies to most countries in which most deaths are from nursing homes)

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3609493

And there are many more papers I've read. Tell me the subject about SARS-CoV-2, and probably I've read a couple.

Daily deaths recorded yesterday were 993, the highest in the US since June 10 (998). The decline has reversed.

Not sure if you understand how death reporting works in the US, but basically you get very low counts on saturday and sunday, on monday there usually is a small rise, and there is always a big peak on Tuesday.

There is actually a very good article in the Center for Evidence Based Medicine of Oxford University's site about how reporting of deaths, and the actual date of deaths do not match, and can create artificial peaks because of delayed reporting.

Sadly, unlike the good work that CEBM has been doing for creating an accurate report of daily deaths based on date of death instead of reporting as most media uses, I've not been able to find something similar for the US, but I can asure you that the data if you tabulate it by date of death is way more clean, and without weird peaks.

So, because you need to take into account delays and variations on reporting, using something like a 7 day moving average can give you a more clear picture of what is going on, and if you apply that filter to the current data, that peak becomes a small rise of 517 deaths on the 7-day moving average for monday, to 556 deaths on Tuesday's 7-day moving average, which would be the same number of deaths on a 7-day moving average as on last Friday.

-7 ( +0 / -7 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

 One wears the mask to protect others and that means respecting the human rights of others.

If you are not infected, you wearing a mask isn't protecting anyone.

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

I wonder has anyone been refused entry to an establishment when NOT wearing a mask?

I've seen that people are being refused at Animate.

Also, about 3 days ago, I was given a mask when entering a restaurant called "Steak Gusto", which was extremely weird. How am I supposed to eat with a mask in my face?

The virus is deadlier than initially claimed as more long-lasting effects are being understood.

You are crazy.

The virus was said to have from 10% to 3% of a death rate. Right now that sits at around 0.1% to 0.4%.

And by the way, in the US the new cases are among the 17-49 and group who were deniers, and they are dying.

I'm so sick about this mix of facts and misleading information.

Young people, even with the flu die, but the rate is nothing like people over 70. The rate of people dying from COVID on the age range you are talking about is the same as people from that range who die from influensa.

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

Back on non-flat earth, there is evidence. And not only a little, but a lot.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html

Just because this doesn't jive with your belief system doesn't make it untrue.

This is why I don't like to talk about these subjects with people that lack proper scientific education.

I'm not denying that there are circumstances in which wearing a mask makes sense, and has been proved to work, I have read the papers on the subject.

The problem here is, what we are seeing here is not the same set of rules.

Having people to wear masks because they themselves are sick makes sense in order to prevent (even if not a 100%) spread.

Having highly trained medical professionals to wear masks when in close contact in order to prevent getting infected has shown to work, but just because of very strict protocols on their use.

Having the general population, most of which are completely healthy wear masks, can actually increase the chances of them getting infected for multiple reasons, like touching your face more than usual, having to get closer to people in order to hear them better because of muffled sound, using mask for long periods of time, among many others.

Having people who are healthy, and have health problems that can get aggravated by mask use, is just cruel.

-9 ( +2 / -11 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

Mild is now being proven untrue. Lasting effects from mild to severe are being recorded around the world. 

Show the research of it. I can show you reviews of multiple studies on the epidemiology with strong evidence, the virus is mostly mild and effects are very similar to those of Influenza like illnesses.

The main problem for this virus in particular is that there is no vaccine nor there is an anti-viral treatment, which means if you have a severe form of the illness, there is not much to do to lower your viral count.

The results would be the same if you had a severe form of influenza and you took no treatment for it.

So you think they do work and they protect others? But not effective?

I think there is no evidence that they work in the way it is supposed to avoid this pandemic. There are studies on people who are infected in very controlled situations, there are also some mild evidence studies on the use by medical professionals that lowers their chance to get infected (in direct contact and very close contact with infected people).

There are simply no studies on the effects of just giving everyone a mask and waiting for it to stop a pandemic, and there is strong evidence that in fact it doesn't really prevent the spread of an outbreak in some place like a city.

So if you are sick wear a mask? The more touching of face sounds like an assumption or are you speaking from experience here? Tendency maybe which is avoidable but not absolute. Definitely no evidence of wearing mask leads to face touching which is worst than no mask.

There is evidence that masks can lead to a false sense of security. In fact the point I made there is a point that was made by professionals at the Evidence Based Medicine Center of the Oxford University.

But human rights should apply to all humans in all condition, definitely a slippery slope elsewise.

There have been cases in the past of people who spread virus knowingly being arrested and even put on jail, because at that point you are basically being an actual real risk to others.

Now, in most of those cases are really extreme cases (before this bs), like people who are carriers of the typhoid virus, doing things like cooking for a restaurant, and ignoring orders not to do it, or people who are HIV+ and knowingly have sex with other just to infect them.

You are correct that even in cases where you know someone is infected that even there it could be a human right violation, but at least there is precedent that it might be not in this kind of situations.

What is completely a clear cut violation on human rights is doing the same with someone who is healthy, and even worse it this causes health problems to these people.

You haven't mentioned what evidence would actually change your mind on this though. Of course this is somewhat rhetorical as we are 5 months into a pandemic with the western world literally seeing the data over time and changing their narrative to masks do work. But prove me wrong.

Change my mind about what? There are so many topic here that it is a little bit disingenuous trying to simplify it into a single problem that you just need to prove.

For me to change my mind that it actually works in a pandemic, there would need to be studies with strong evidence (by strong evidence means, studies that have a strong sample of people, that removes bias and takes into account variations in the population) of working in the wide population, regardless of infection status, and that the negative effects of these actions are less damaging that what they are trying to avoid.

For me to change my mind that it isn't a human right violation to just force everyone, without matter that they are infected or not, to wear a mask, you can't. I don't think there is any circumstance that would justify forcing people to take actions that are completely a waste of time, just because of panic and security theater.

-11 ( +0 / -11 )

Posted in: 33% of parents in Japan delayed vaccinating kids due to coronavirus fears See in context

So yeah, apparently it doesn't matter if we have outbreaks of other illness, as long as these other illness are not COVID-19.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan's household spending drops at record pace as virus hits economy See in context

Didn't knew the virus also infected everyone's wallets.

I was under the impression that this had a lot more to do with the extreme measures taken, the government, and just the constant fear mongering.

But the article states as if the virus itself was the culprit, so now I know that SARS-CoV-2 not gives you Influensa-like symptoms, but also economic depression symptoms.

-13 ( +7 / -20 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

Yeah, uh why?

Because people are wearing masks.

I love when people can claim things they really have no idea if it is true or not.

Sadly, I actually need proof before making these kind of claims, and the thing is, as I said previously, there is no actual evidence of these.

Not to mention that there are other countries, like NZ that doesn't really have a mask culture, and they kind of are in the same (or even better) boat.

Some people think they are healthy, but actually they are asymptomatic

And I made a whole argument that even if someone could show without a shadow of a doubt that they not only are not infected, but that they have actually immunity, they would still be forced to wear masks, even if it is completely useless.

Not only that, but the main way of transmission, as with the common cold, would be because of sneezes and coughs. Not only asymptomatic people are not constantly sneezing and coughing, but the same effect can be achieved, without all of the unnecessary harm it can cause, by just engaging in common sneezing etiquete.

And as a last point, there is actual evidence that asymptomatic people are actually way less likely to infect others, since one of the reasons why they are asymptomatic is that their viral load is actually very low.

Is this due to your perception that masks don't work?

What evidence would convince you that they do work?

If this evidence exist, would it then still violate your right?

It is a mix of multiple things, but mostly because of the fact that this is for the most part just security theater for an overblown threat.

Here is the funny thing, in normal times I'm an advocate for masks, I've been pushing all the time to people who are sick and want to go out or to work to, first, don't do it, and second, if you are going to do it anyway, at least wear a mask.

But this time is different. Basically people are being forced to wear masks regardless if they are sick or not, assuming that we are all asymptomatic, but ignoring many other facts, like the fact that your eyes, one of the most easy routes for transmission, remain open, and the fact that because you wear a mask, you will be touching your face more constantly, and it can actually be the way you get infected.

The only way this wouldn't be a human right violation is that you would be forcing only sick people to wear it.

The instant you are forcing healthy people to wear them, you are violating people's rights.

-9 ( +3 / -12 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

It's going down on the US as a whole only because the hard-hit states that took the virus seriously like the Northeast states have now got the virus under control. But the other states, it's now surging up

Tell me an state where deaths are actually going up.

Cases are up, mostly because of increased testing, and change in protocols for testing, and most people turning positive are young and asymptomatic.

What's real tangible about the surging cases is that the hospital ICU (Intensive Care Unit) rooms are filling up again. In states where the hospitalization cases are surging up, ICU spaces are nearing towards 100% capacity

Show me actual ICU capacity vs usage and usage in usual years. Not even NY that had a lot of outbreaks in nursing homes (from where most of the deaths actually came) had an incredibly great raise in hospitalizations, and it was never at the "brink of collapse" even if the media was constantly saying that.

And there's no going around that real-world complication - an ICU room occupied is one less ICU room for another patient. They're already suspending non-emergency and elective surgeries to keep ICUs available (so one has to live with that pain for the time-being until the surge dies down)

And it was a complete disaster. Hospitals were basically completely empty, and there was actually a rise in non-covid excess deaths because of cancelled treatments and so called "elective surgeries", which include things like cancer treatment and hearth surgeries.

As I said, hospitals were never at the point of break, in fact hospitals are having a lot of financial troubles because there are just no patients.

There is a difference between taking an extreme measure and actually needing that extreme measure. Not because you take it means you need it.

should they be found to have the virus and spread it while taking no precautions, they should be charged with public endangerment and put in jail. 

Following that logic, if you are found to have forced someone who was healthy to use a mask and ended up with mask related health problems, you should be charged as well.

If someone is, or thinks there's a chance they might be, HIV+, is it their human right not to mention it to a partner, and not to wear any protection?

Another completely false equivalency. It is non equivalent in any sense. For starters, the way mask usage is being enforced means that it really doesn't matter if you are healthy or not. You could show that you have created immunity for the virus, and that you are negative in the PCR tests, and you still would need to wear a mask, because, once again, it is just security theater.

Just like the security theater of the airport that assumes that everyone is a terrorist, mask security theater asumes everyone has SARS-CoV-2.

Not to mention that having sex with someone who is HIV+ without protection has a very real risk of infection. A more equivalent comparison would be, forcing everyone to use condoms all the time in order to stop the spread of HIV.

Failing to wear a mask is one of the most self-centered, selfish, and immature actions anyone can do. Masks protect others from the virus you may be carrying - and decrease the chances of you infecting someone else.

Why do I never hear anyone say this when there is an outbreak of anything else?

Oh yeah, because it is insane. A lot of people are starting to develop OCD-like behavior.

Why? Masks are either useful or they are not.

I think the point that person was trying to make was, the number of cases and deaths in Japan is not at all comparable with the US, so the actual possibility of getting SARS-CoV-2 or dying from COVID-19 is extremely low.

-11 ( +5 / -16 )

Posted in: Man arrested for attempting to kill common-law wife See in context

There is. It's called 事実婚 (じじつこん jijitsukon).

There is no common-law, since Japan is a country with a civil-law system. In fact, Countries with common-law are mostly just English speaking countries.

Common-law marriage implies that it is a marriage as stipulated by common-law, but as I said, there is no common law in Japan.

Jijitsukon, as the name says would be a "de-facto marriage", in fact in japan is also called an undocumented marriage. For the most part, "De-facto marriage" is not at all recognized as a marriage in Japan strictly speaking, but in reality there are many ways in which it can get some sort of legal recognition, specially by family courts, and many businesses.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

The US is pretty much the only country where this is even a debate. How is that working out, by the way?

It is not at all. Talking with friends and family here in Japan, a lot of them actually dislike how they are getting forced to use masks, many are skeptic about the mask use, and many are avoiding business that force mask use, but because they are Japanese, for the most part they will never say it publicly, not make a big fuzz about it.

And in the US, daily deaths have constantly been going down for more than 2 and a half months.

-12 ( +8 / -20 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

I'm going to assume that this was raised by Americans?

Nope, I'm not an American, nor I have ever lived in the US.

Does it infringe on their rights to spread a nasty virus?

For that logic you would need to asume that most people who are being forced to wear a mask actually have the virus, but they most likely won't be carrying it, which means that mostly healthy people will be forced to wear masks for no good reason.

And also, for that logic you require that wearing masks actually helped to stop the spread of the virus, (which by the way, really isn't that nasty), but there is no good evidence for it.

What rights does the mask affect?

Wearing a mask can have many negative consequences. For starters, there are people who cannot wear a mask for health problems, but in this corona dystopia it seems that the only health problem that people care about is Covid-19.

For the negative effects, I'm going to quote the Center of Evidence Based Medicine from the Oxford University:

It is often more difficult to breathe while wearing masks (particularly the respirator masks), which can exacerbate other health issues. A review of 84 articles found that protective facemasks also negatively impact respiratory and dermal mechanisms of human thermoregulation, making it hard for many to wear constantly. 

Thinking you’re protected, means you may put yourself at higher risk, and as individuals, we will change our behaviour in response to the perceived levels of risk. We are more careful if the level of risk is high and less careful if it is low. Measures we can take can include washing hands, avoiding touching, social distancing, school closures and self -isolating when unwell. You may also end up touching your face more often. 

A mask can become dirty with excessive moisture, and contaminated with airborne pathogens. And because your voice is muffled; individuals may have to get closer to people, particularly the elderly, to hear from you.

-14 ( +8 / -22 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

Wear a mask you dummies. It's your human right.

Masks act as a symbol for society – you are protected. The evidence says you may not be.

Evidence from 14 trials on the use of masks vs. no masks was disappointing: it showed no effect in either healthcare workers or in community settings. We could also find no evidence of a difference between the N95 and other types of masks but the trials comparing the two had not been carried in aerosol-generating procedures. 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-masks-on-or-off/

A review of multiple studies, and classification of type of evidence and quality of evidence, by Oxford University CEBM.

-11 ( +9 / -20 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

You're not using the concept of false equivalency properly. A mask and using a seat belt or the brakes for that matter are both contained in the idea of overlapping measures to increase survivability.

It is a false equivalency because the argument wasn't about survivability in the first place, it was about human rights.

Driving a car isn't human right. Living your life is, and therefore, living it without interference is a human right.

Not only that, but even in the survivability aspect, it is a false equivalency.

There are hundreds of hundreds of studies that actually prove that in the case of an accident, chances of surviving that accident by wearing a seat belt increases in a very significant way, same thing with air bags and many other security features modern cars have. Masks, on the other hand, have basically no scientific proof of helping avoiding the spread of an outbreak in the general population.

So, one is an actual security measure, while the other is pure security theater.

And not only that, the probability of you being in a car accident when driving a car is actually quite high, so it is a very real risk, with a high probability of killing you.

On the other hand, with coronavirus, under 70 your chances of dying from SARS-Cov-2 are as high as dying from the flu, and I don't see people advocating to use all the time masks when there is a flu outbreak, unless you yourself are sick.

-27 ( +8 / -35 )

Posted in: Some people argue that mandating anyone to wear face masks during the pandemic is a violation of human rights. Do you agree? See in context

Being obliged to wear a mask in the middle of a highly infectious pandemic that is symptomless in most, fatal for some and with serious long-term consequences for others isn’t a violation of human rights, it’s necessary if we’re going to get through this.

Funny you say that, because if you read the scientific literature on the current understanding of the epidemiology of the virus, most of what you said there is false.

Mosst people are asymptomatic, from the rest who ahave symptoms, it is mild at best for most, and it can get serious for people over 70, mainly because of the lack of a vaccine and antiviral treatement, and the consequences are basically the same as if someone of that age didn't got a vaccine or treatment for the flu, and it gets to the point of pneumonia.

In other words, people are being obligated to wear something, that in the first place has not very strong evidence of working in the general population to avoid spread in the middle of an outbreak, that some people because of health reasons cannot wear, basically creating a situation in which a person that is probably not infected with any virus gets discriminated for having a condition that makes that person ot capable to wear a mask (for example, asthma patients, people with chronic headaches, mostly because of fear mongering that has overblown the actual risk of the virus, in order to make people feel safe without providing much than security theater.

Comparing wearing a mask just to live your life, as wearing a seat belt when using a car, which isn't really necessary to survive, is nothing more than a false equivalency

-42 ( +15 / -57 )

Posted in: Koike wins 2nd term as Tokyo governor See in context

Fear mongering is very effective in politics.

Makes it seem like you are the only one who cares about a problem.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Posted in: As coronavirus cases in Tokyo surge, gov't gives expert advisory panel a makeover See in context

No one seems to care about deaths anymore, because if they did, no one would be making a fuss about a rise in asymptomatic detected cases.

Detected cases depend completely in testing capabilities, and it is never going to give you numbers near the real ones, but excess deaths do not lie. In fact excess deaths is how influenza deaths are calculated for each flu season.

Excess deaths raised back in April, and now they are back to normal, with no apparent rise at all.

But the media and politicians only seem to want to continue to exploit fear as much as posible.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Posted in: Man arrested for attempting to kill common-law wife See in context

There is no common-law in Japan.

It would be an informal marriage.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Mandatory charging for plastic shopping bags starts in Japan See in context

This is just a plastic bag tax, I mean, you can still get one, you just have to paid an overinflated price for it.

So no, all other arguments and opinions about "bring your own bag" or whatever you are pushing for is just not the reality of this initiative.

As I said, people with money who do not care about paying a few yens extra for a bag, are not going to go all their way, get a cloth bag, bring that bag (and in case that they forget it, go back and get it), wash the bag, and buy a new one when the old one is becoming unusable. They will just pay a few extra yen for convenience.

If they really cared so much about the environment, they would find some other way to replace the plastic bags, in order not to lose convenience, but this seems more like a move to seem like they are doing something.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 67 COVID-19 cases; highest since state of emergency lifted See in context

There are excess deaths (nearly 1500 of them reported in March-April), and covid-19 deaths are signed off as e.g. pneumonia deaths.

If there weren't excess deaths at all, when it wouldn't even be considered an outbreak. I'm talking about right now, right now there are no excess deaths, at least not at numbers outside of the average margin.

So, what fills the gap? Covid-19 is a probable culprit, me thinks.

Nope, that's also a phenomenon that has happened all over the world, with excess non-covid deaths also on the rise. There are many reasons for them, but one of the biggest is that people are either not going to the hospital because they are afraid they will catch SARS-Cov-2, or necessary surgeries and treatments are getting postponed, resulting in a premature death of the patient.

-8 ( +2 / -10 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 67 COVID-19 cases; highest since state of emergency lifted See in context

Deaths have a several week delay after new cases.

Completely not true. Look at the rise of cases and deaths in previous months. There are a few days of delay, not weeks. One of the main reasons is because, specially at the start of the outbreak, many of the cases reported where serious at the time of reporting, which mean that they can die at any moment. Right now most cases are mild or asymptomatic.

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 67 COVID-19 cases; highest since state of emergency lifted See in context

This is all assuming that, the real number is only 68 and that all the deaths so far are being accurately reported and there isn't a delay on autopsy results, which ofc will take longer than the tests.

The completely is the possibility that deaths are undercounted, and probably we will see some spikes from time to time in the deaths per day because of it, but the fact that excess deaths aren't that rampant in Japan, and there isn't the common sharp rise of excess deaths as it has happened all over the world with places with big SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, makes me think that either way the numbers are still lower than in march.

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

Posted in: Mandatory charging for plastic shopping bags starts in Japan See in context

I also like the pretext about marine life, specially because most of the plastic Japan generates isn't from the free plastic bags they give you at the convenience store, but of the actual package of all the consumables.

Not only that, but it would be a problem on the handling of the disposal of the bags, and not a problem with the bags themselves.

And it is 100% a tax on the poor. I will continue to get bags even if they cost, because the cost is for me so infinitesimal that I can afford it... tell that to someone who is living paycheck by paycheck.

-10 ( +1 / -11 )

Posted in: Tokyo Disney parks reopen after 4-month closure due to virus See in context

It's Tokyo Social-Distancing-Land!

So much fun! I'll completely pay full price for less than half the experience :)

7 ( +10 / -3 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 67 COVID-19 cases; highest since state of emergency lifted See in context

Also, Don't forget to scream and cry :)

-13 ( +15 / -28 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 67 COVID-19 cases; highest since state of emergency lifted See in context

And no word in the fact that the death rate plummeted completely, with a lower death rate than that of march, many days with 0 deaths, the fact that most of the new cases are from asymptomatic people, and the fact that the PCR test methodology changed... No, let's only focus in "big numbers bad"

-5 ( +21 / -26 )

Posted in: Mandatory charging for plastic shopping bags starts in Japan See in context

Another tax on the poor :D

-15 ( +20 / -35 )

Posted in: EU to reopen borders to 14 nations, including Japan but not to U.S. tourists See in context

Freedom of travel is going back to the 19 century. This is has basically bece the dream world of all the ethnic nationalists all around the world.

Border closure being the standard, and just opening borders to your friends without any kind of real oversight on how that works, and having arbitrary ever changing rules.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

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