mano2012 comments

Posted in: Chinese tycoon offers Geelys to replace cars damaged in anti-Japan riots See in context

good point there, you leave me wondering why i haven't seen any protests/demonstration toward the government CHINA since the TIANMEN SQUARE incident? i guess china is such a paradise to live in, and everybody loves the government (oops, the party) so much that existence of any grievances are basically nonsense. these ultra nationalists don't represent every single chinese. they are not ME, MY FRIENDS, MY FRIENDS' FRIENDS, AND THEIR FRIENDS. we enjoy our japanese and german brand cars, we all own either a nikon or canon, and we often dine out at sushi establishments. however, these MAFIASOS BEHAVIOUR surely has an effect on customer choices inside china. for an instance, if you purchase a japanese brand car, and the chance that your vehicle would get vandalized or damaged are so high that would eventually turn away a great number of prospective buyers.

My point was not about revolting against the gov. It was about the ppl HAVE their own opinions and expressed them outright. For example, when the US "accidentally" bombed the Chinese embassy in Serbia and killed several Chinese nationals inside the embassy.. the Chinese ppl in China demonstrated against the US embassies and consulates..it was all over China in huge crowds SImilar to the recent demos against Japan. Im sure it was not asked/urged by the gov, rather the ppl themselves Could see and made their own minds about nationalism.

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Posted in: Chinese tycoon offers Geelys to replace cars damaged in anti-Japan riots See in context

not really, the above figure doesn't show anything. We all know that china is a manufacturing base for many foreign firms, thus it is impossible to calculate the exact the total value of the FINAL GOODS. think about this, you purchase a sony lcd tv made in china, parts of the tv is made in japan, shipped to china, further manufactured and assembly in china, then ship to the whole world (japan included). So, the part that made in japan is considered to be japan exports, and the one that ship to japan is china exports. what about the world wide shipments???

The overall model can be calculated or approximated with high degree of precision. For example, most Japanese cars made in China have only about 25% of their parts imported from Japan, and the rest are sourced from Chinese companies,, and some cars are wholly-imported from Japan. Even if you take another example, eg. Bluray players, the same models could be calculated/approximated. It all Comes down to the Total $ imported from Japan (exports by Japan to China), which is approx $200 billions.

also, japan isn't known to be a strong exporter to begin with. japan and usa total export only at around 15% of its gdp at max. compared to that germany (30%), korea (50%), china (almost 30%). some countries like vn, exports valued at 80% of its gdp. the total value of trade between japan and china at 2011 is around 360 billions usd, which roughly around 180 bil for each country, a pretty fair trading it seems.

It does not really matter. Mu point is: thats about +21% of Japan's total exports. And as I explained in another thread, for each 1 job in a car industry, there are Several jobs that are connected inside Japan to produce those parts/services. Thus, those +21% exports affect many other jobs inside Japan!

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Posted in: Chinese tycoon offers Geelys to replace cars damaged in anti-Japan riots See in context

It's not a "loss of goodwill." Chinese are AFRAID of buying Japanese cars for fear of having them destroyed in the next inevitable uprising.

Not really. This is a long process, and Japan will be the "bigger" loser, unfortunately. As you will see, Chinese ppl will keep abandoning Japanese products wherever they could, it does not bode well for Japan.

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Posted in: China IMF boycott a sign of things to come, say analysts See in context

But that same defense spending during the Reagan years nearly bankrupted the nation. Defense spending is never a boom for a nation it's an expense. You are right about one thing, the PRC is going to rev-up it's defense spending, but all that will do is cause more of a strain on it's economy than it can handle. Remember, the Soviet Union was larger than the PRC is right now. But when it began to spend on it's military that's when it's bubble caved in.

It won't bankcrupt China due to:

a. China's defense budget is still small in terms of % of its GDP.

b. China still needs a lot of modernization in its Navy and airforce.

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Posted in: China IMF boycott a sign of things to come, say analysts See in context

So your contension is that the PRC economy is fine and the housing industry is not going to be effected if it continues to slow down?

No. But it won't make China crash.

But that same defense spending during the Reagan years nearly bankrupted the nation. Defense spending is never a boom for a nation it's an expense.

You are right about one thing, the PRC is going to rev-up it's defense spending, but all that will do is cause more of a strain on it's economy than it can handle. Remember, the Soviet Union was larger than the PRC is right now. But when it began to spend on it's military that's when it's bubble caved in.

It won't bankcrupt China due to: a. China's defense budget is still small in terms of % of its GDP. b. China still needs a lot of modernization in its Navy and airforce.

Again, to rev-up it's defense industry will take lots of training, man hours and money. Pushing money into a burning pit is a waste. But if the PRC thinks it has moeny to burn well then by all means have at it. If the PRC actually wanted to do something more productive it would expand it's nation infrastructure and train it's people better. But doing that would take away from it's true ambitions and that is where the problem lies.

You are right about infrastructure. Actually the US's success in the 2nd half of the 20th century were due to: a. First, Its huge spending in building the infrastructure b. Big defense industries

China is already doing its infrastructure and continuing to spend more on these, and the next big one is the Defense industries.

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Posted in: China IMF boycott a sign of things to come, say analysts See in context

As the PRCs economy slows down, the housing bubble will begin.

Not really, the housing industries are just about 10% of China's economy! "..but residential and nonresidential real estate, combined, accounts for only 15-20% of that – no more than 10% of the overall economy." http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-india-is-riskier-than-china

It's only a matter of time before the PRC is forced to do business the civilized way before it all falls apart at the seams.

Sorry, it's not gonna happen any time soon. Why? China has yet to jump start its defense industries. If you look at the US developments: post-ww2 its economy boomed big time due to its huge defense industries, and Reagan did the 2nd phase by further accelerate those industries. Remember, for 1 job in the Big 3 auto industries in the US, there are about 5 other jobs that are connected to Big 3 due to parts and services required to supply those Big 3. Logically, for each 1 job in the Big 3 DEFENSE industries (Boeing, LM..) there are at least 5 jobs that are connected to them as well. China is pushing its auto industries, but the Big Defense industries are yet to come.

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Posted in: China IMF boycott a sign of things to come, say analysts See in context

Mano2012 thank's for that link. It was a good article....

You are welcome. As you know from my postings, Im pro-China but at the same time Im also trying to inform other posters about the behind-the-scenes interconnections between various countries and industries by looking at them objectively ;)

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Posted in: China IMF boycott a sign of things to come, say analysts See in context

..I noted in Canadian news that the Canadian Govt is taking a very strong position in blocking China's investments in Canada .......................

You meant about the CNOOC-Nexen deal, right? Well, according to a recent article, Canada needs over $600 (6 Hundreds) billions investment in its natural resources industries for the next couple of decades! So tell me how is that gonna help Canada by blocking the $15 billions take over of Nexen by CNOOC when actually Nexen's properties are mostly located overseas (over 70%). Canada will approve that deal.

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Posted in: China IMF boycott a sign of things to come, say analysts See in context

China actually has a point. a. If you look at its international trade history for the last 20 yrs, China has been working hard to save money for rough times like today. It is about discipline and strong money management, instead of spend-now-and-worry-later methods used by the US and EU countries. NOTE: those western countries's and japan's profits from their enterprises in China are quite high, whereas the Chinese workers do not make much money.

b. China has been investing a lot FDI into many foreign countries, incl. the US and Europe. Read this interesting article: "Under Chinese, a Greek Port Thrives" http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/business/global/chinese-company-sets-new-rhythm-in-port-of-piraeus.html?pagewanted=all

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Posted in: Chinese tycoon offers Geelys to replace cars damaged in anti-Japan riots See in context

Mano, "We dont know that for sure. " Yes we do, it's obvious to anyone not wearing blinkers. The Chinese protest against Japan because it suits China's ruling elite.

And where were you when the ppl in Greece demonstrated, and Spaniards and the Occupy Wall St., Occupy Berkeley etc?? Obviously the Chinese ppl decided that one of the ways to show their anger is by renouncing Japanese products, eg. cars etc

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Posted in: Chinese tycoon offers Geelys to replace cars damaged in anti-Japan riots See in context

but China's government has huge controls over how this issue is portrayed and has shamelessly stirred this up for all to see.

We dont know that for sure. However, in general, if a group needs something more from another group, they would be less willing to protest against that group. In other words, the Chinese ppl Knew they dont need Japan's products/services that much, hence, they dared vented their anger.

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Posted in: Chinese tycoon offers Geelys to replace cars damaged in anti-Japan riots See in context

Mano, Japan hasn't shot itself in the foot. It's Chinese nationalism that's created this posture. I'll give you that Ishihara hasn't helped and deserves all the flak he gets but China's government has huge controls over how this issue is portrayed and has shamelessly stirred this up for all to see.

Not really. If you google it, Japan's export to China is +21% of Japan's total exports, whereas China's exports to Japan is +9% of China's total exports.

Regarding political+econ implications, this give a somewhat balanced view : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2Vjn7RkrJU&feature=related

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Posted in: Chinese tycoon offers Geelys to replace cars damaged in anti-Japan riots See in context

There is a reason why they initially bought the Japanese brand instead of the "luxurious" Geely. Think hard Mano2012. If I were the victim, I'd sell it right away in hopes that I have enough of a down payment to buy a European brand.

You obviously missed the whole point. As I mentioned a few times already in several threads, Japan has now lost the Goodwill among the Chinese customers. Chinese companies are now stepping up their quality, R&D and nationalistic postures to lure new customers. Japan has shot itself in the foot, unfortunately, as its economic troubles will soon increase more due to Ishihara and Noda.

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Posted in: Chinese tycoon offers Geelys to replace cars damaged in anti-Japan riots See in context

Like getting a wrist watch from the dollar store after someone stomped on your Rolex

LOL yeah right. The new car is worth $20K, at the same price they bought the japanese car. http://beijingcream.com/2012/10/chen-guangbiao-gives-away-geely-to-former-japanese-car-owners/#more-5746

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

Every industry goes thru its own innovation and phases. Chinese ppl, themselves are workers of these car companies incl. professionals such as engineers and designers etc are having more confidence in the quality of their cars, and the cars companies know that quality & safety are most important factors incl. price. Many ppl in the west still have the wrong perception about china and thought it is still the cheap good ole manufacturing giant, when in fact china has been moving towards the next generation of its economic model emphasizing on innovation, higher R&D, value-added products and research-intensive companies.

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

lol i dont discount that japanese cars have good qualities, but i dont see your points of discounting excellent geely's R&D projects mentioned in the link you read! Yeah keep thinking like that, i would like that very much ;) Im not interested in collector items, im looking at the bigger picture about how things progress, and trust me car executives in japan CANT sleep at night.

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

i bought some geely shares a few years ago and sold at a nice profit ;) so yeah i know enough about geely. geely is a Star indeed and there are other car companies rising up.

If i were a japanese executive, of any company not just cars, i'd be really worried! As i said it involves Goodwill when consumers buying a product, and now that Goodwill is lost! and perhaps almost impossible to reverse it as all kinds of companies inside china (incl. korean, german./eu, usa subsidiaries) are now rushing rapidly to displace any products that are made by japan companies. I dont see how marketing or even P.R. can solve this huge problem for japanese companies..

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

China's car companies are making innovation left and right. Just as you described about some of the things Japanese cars had in the 1960s, the 2012 cars coming out of China's car factories have products from new materials science, simulations using supercomputers, green tech (byd to name one), and cars are being Exported to many countries. lol. yugo is like 1/100th of any China cars today.

lol. keep saying that Geely does not innovate when a top Nissan executive has said otherwise. As i said, all in al, and unfortunately, this is really really bad news for the big 3 japanese car companies. Ishihara has become china car companies hero ;)

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

mano2012...You have to remember that for most Chinese consumers, it's the first time they purchase a car. Compare to the experience West, they really don't have any experience and do not fully understand what a good car is. Wait until they drive the Geely for 5-10 years and find out what a crap car this is. Word will get around quickly and these Chinese consumers will get smarter and will make better judgement on what to buy.

Im not a marketing guy, but im sure the markets are segmented into a pie-chart, e.g

50% would buy a good-enough car ? 25% for higher price car? 15% for foreign-made (affiliated with china's companies) cars? 10 for luxury cars?

But I can assure you that the sub $10K car made from China's wholly owned companies are perhaps 5 (FIVE) times better than the Japanese CRAPPY cars of the 1960s -- you can google the history about Japanese cars of the 1960s!

But these are the keys to the future:

"Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co, one of China's biggest car makers, conducted 20 to 25 crash tests when it developed its popular Panda model, engineers involved in developing the car told Reuters. Global car makers typically conduct 125 to 150 crash tests for each new model. By relying more on computer simulations, Geely saved at least 200 million yuan ($31.57 million) and two years in development time on the Panda, the engineers said."

""This is a warning shot to the established engineers who have told their management time and time and again that this is the minimum cost they can achieve with their existing design and production methodology," says Shiro Nakamura, a top Nissan Motor Co. executive and the company's chief designer. "Now the Chinese are saying they can cut another 30, 40 percent of the cost."

http://bottomline.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/17/13921640-how-china-can-build-a-7000-good-enough-car?lite

--

im confident that within just 2-3 yrs you will see much much more innovation coming out of china's car companies.

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

None of the Geely can match Toyota. It's not that easy. Facts are Geely is in the crap entry level with hardly no options, similar to what Hyundai went through in the 80's by using old 4 cylinder outdated engine designed by Mitubishi. Look at how long Korean makers took to get to this level. 30 years? The entry level Chinese cars will be accepted by Chinese consumers only because of the low price. You cannot fool the consumers. Real value of the cars are made by consumers and you can usually tell by the resale value. Do you want 5 years old Geely?

Sorry I disagree. Your thinking is not progressive and think that engineers would just use linear thinking and progress in the same fashion over the last 30 yrs. It is NOT. Engineers are using "revolutionary" methods: new materials, computer simulations, etc..etc tens and hundreds of 2012-tech innovations.

You proved my point by saying: "Chinese cars will be accepted by Chinese consumers only because of the low price.

That to me, is Good enough.. it has reached Beyond step #1. It's only a matter of time.. within 2-3 yrs that u WILL see better cars coming out of China's own car manufacturing..

note: I would Not be surprised if inthe background China gov is now giving incentives to those car companies so that they can increase their R&D budget..

dont look at just today.. think about just 2-3 yrs from now..

this is now a game-changing situation. and it it URGENT.. the china car companies know that!!! and they will make sure that those big 3 japan car companies are pushed aside.

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

The average cars have 20,000 to 30,000 parts to make one car. Sure, Chinese car manufacturer is making a progress, but to say they are just as good as Japan and U.S. cars are far from the truth. The real value of the car is the price of the 5 years old Toyota to 5 years old Chinese made cars. Used 5 years or 10 years old Chinese cars are worthless. If Chinese can make comparable cars, what do Chinese have that is comparable to Lexus LS460, Camry, BMW 328, Audi A4 or GM's Cadillac? Chinese have none.

I gave u just 1 (ONE) example, that that $7K is just as good as its comparable competition. My point is: their R&D innovated using simulation to test car crashes! and thus reduced costs and further advances the science of collision.

There is no question that not all cars from Geely can match Toyota's, but as to the question of value, "branding" is a matter of marketing, a handbag from Gucci is actually not that different from similar good quality ones,but its VALUE will alwys be much more due to "perceived" value by consumers.

You are just looking at the present.. dont u think that the board of directors of China's own companies are not agressively pursuing their own "lexus", 'bmw" etc?? it's only logical and just a matter of time that those cars will come out within a few years..

now that lexus etc are having troubles with sales,, those china's car companies see HUGE HUGE opportunities to create their own HIGH-end, using much more quality (pricey) parts, and why not.

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

There has been sudden increase in sales of Korean and U.S. cars. Although Hyundai makes decent cars, they are copied from Japan and Germany. There is no originality from Korea. GM has enjoyed increase in sales in China, but long term reliability might be a problem. Eventually, when the dust settles, the public understands the good quality the Japanese cars are and they will come back to buy.

Not really. China's car companies have increased their R&D and innovation. The ppl WILL realize that Chinese cars will be Just As Good As other cars, incl. Japan's and GM. Just an example: http://bottomline.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/17/13921640-how-china-can-build-a-7000-good-enough-car?lite

The protestors were assembled and paid to demonstrate by the Chinese government just to make it look like the average chinese gives a damn and also to gain support from the uninformed Chinese public and the world. The average Chinese is too busy working at the factories to be protesting. If the chinese government has to try to manipulate world opinion for heir case, then their case may must be weak. The Chinese media reports it like they are real protestors.

Can you actually prove conclusively what you stated? You never heard of Arab Spring, demonstrations in Occupy Wall St, Greece and Spain demonstrations. The Chinese ppl using weibo and social networking also knew how to organize their own grassrooot movement.

The U.S. response to China’s behavior will be key to how the Far East continues to adapt to a rapidly changing balance of power in the region. The U.S. will attempt to contain China’s power in the region through bi-lateral partnerships and Japan will likely re-militarize to some degree. China will resist what it perceives to be a strategic encirclement, and the region will increasingly fill with tension. The U.S. should avoid being drawn into a new cold war/arms race with China, but instead serve as a framer and mediator of the region’s issues.

Nothing is gonna happen there, there wont be any war over Diaoyu issue. Cool heads will prevail , but damages have been done. I actually see the rise of China's own "Boeing", "Lockheed Martin", "Northtrop" etc whereby China will follow what the US did post-ww2 where the US economy was booming like crazy due to its military industrialization.

Note: for each 1 job in the US Big 3 car companies, 5 Other jobs are connected.. and logically for each job in the US Big 3 Military/defense companies there are ALSO 5 other jobs connected. Thus, if/when China has its own "Big 3" defense companies, too, its economy will blossom tremendously.

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

Here is the bottom line: so far, the Japan gov has shot itself on the foot, and Japan is the bigger loser in this dilemma as trades and diplomatic relationship are going downhill.

Deng-Tanaka decided to shelve this issue as their wisdoms were not enough to solve it then. Yet, the current Japan gov wanted to show its ww2 imperialistic behavior, unfortunately.

At the end of the day: Big 3 car companies from japan are losing big time, not to mention countless other enterprises, too.

Whats next? Both sides are trying their best not to escalate to military confrontation. That is good. So the victims are then: diplomatic relations and Trades. Japan has now lost its Goodwill among chinese ppl, and therefore they wont be buying anymore japanese products. Thats a fair analysis.

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

I have to agree that boycotting Japanese goods isn't going to hurt China in the short term. The Japanese companies will feel it first. But then they will furlough the Chinese workers in their factories. Other countries will realize that having factories in China is a bigger risk than they thought - like Apple is thinking about Foxconn right now. They will build new factories in Cambodia or India. In the long run it won't be good for the Chinese either.

Not really. Foreign companies Already knew about possible problems in China, yet they chose to invest in China, because China has the infrastructure + labor + rules that are good enough to operate sound business enterprises.

It is actually good that companies are investing in India, Cambodia etc.. as this will push China;s own companies to innovate and accelerate China's INTERNAL economy.

You also have to look at what the Chinese can learn from the Japanese about how to run a factory. But since the rule of law is so capricious in China it probably wouldn't help anyway. As somebody who has had subassemblies fail because a Chinese company decided to change a material for a gear and not tell anybody all I can say is that Chinese quality and contracts are always suspect. Good luck to everybody stuck there.

China is moving towards its Internal economy:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-09/26/c_123766523.htm

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90778/7966979.html

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

In China foreign business ventures are typically at least 50 - 50 ventures. . . . . .so the sales-plummet for Jcars in China will hit thousands of Chinese workers hard , especially as car manufacturing plants cut back on production & workers .......................Not to mention the car parts industry that had a large base in China and other automobile-related industries . . . . ....................The Chinese govt is shooting it self in the foot. . .GO FIGURE !!!! --:

Your logic is absolutely flawed. Any sales lost in Toyota, Honda, Nissan will then be PICKED up by Geely and other car companies in China, including Korean and German companies. In order to fill these New demands, they will hire more workers! ahh! but where? From those workers being laid off by those big 3 Japanese car companies!

Who will lose money? Those OWNERS (Chinese + Japanese) of those big 3, and eventually they will have to sell their plants to other car companies!

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Posted in: Japanese automakers' sales in China tumble See in context

China is not the only market in the world. ............................ Besides, Japanese technology remains cutting edge so staying innovative will help hold it market competitiveness in any indusry - including the auto industry..

You are joking, right? Where? you will need to find +10 other countries whose Combined population exceed that of 1.3 ppl in China. And there are competitions everywhere. As to innovation, China's companies are increasing their R&D budget, and in just 2-3 yrs you will see much innovation coming out of China.

As I mentioned in another thread, this does notbode well for Japan, for this is just the beginning of a new phase where Chinese ppl will strive for their own internal development.

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Posted in: Japan's top 3 carmakers to halve Chinese output See in context

There is a saying: small minds think small ;)

nigelboy said: "And this is something to brag about??? Wake me when China reaches a 70 percentile like most developed nations (U.S., Japan, U.K. Germany, France, etc.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_sector_composition

I dont even need to put my arguments against your above statement.

the BIGGER picture is:

China started a New Model 10 yrs ago (as stated by the Russian expert in my previous link) This new model has now reached a Perfect Storm for its launch, which is this year 2012! Since China's tertiary sector is only 43.1% of its GDP in 2011, THAT MEANS it has HUGE HUGE HUGE opportunities to grow and Replace and Push Aside the export industries...

Sorry again to the Japan fanboys every where ;) and to be blunt.. the Chinese ppl are now GETTING RID of Japanese products starting this 2012.. and this is IRREVERSIBLE no matter how much marketing or P.R. etc etc..etc..

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Posted in: Japan's top 3 carmakers to halve Chinese output See in context

My point is your data that you have been peddling is incorrect! and I told u so then:

China's domestic consumption as a % of GDP is at a woeful 33.8% in 2010 which has been declining.

but the reality: "Government data shows that China's tertiary industry accounted for 43.1 percent of the country's GDP in 2011, up from 40 percent in 2005. "

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-09/26/c_123766523.htm

--

Definition of 'Tertiary Industry' The segment of the economy that provides services to its consumers. This includes a wide range of businesses including financial institutions, schools, transports and restaurants.

Also known as "tertiary sector of industry," or "service industry/sector".

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tertiaryindustry.asp

--

PS Im not interested in comparing with other countries, thats another topic, another day ;)

My point is to debunk the garbage you have been hauling all these weeks.

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Posted in: Japan's top 3 carmakers to halve Chinese output See in context

The following data also shows that Chinese ppl are being Exposed to other countries and they understand better about freedom and global exchange in trading and social/cultural issues.

Some travel data: [you can verify these via google]

each year 70 (seventy) millions Chinese travel overseas! each year about 3.5 millions Japanese visit China each year about 1 million Chinese ppl visit Japan

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Posted in: Japan's top 3 carmakers to halve Chinese output See in context

Even with their vehicle sales decreased by 50% these car companies are not talking about leaving the Chinese market as some Japanese reports and posters here said they would/should? It is simple, for all the economic downturns in China, it is still one of the fastest large economy in the world with sound and stable economic and political policies. The japanese car corporations just can't ignore a huge market like this without losing major competitive edge to their competitors.

Japan has now lost the GOODWILL among the Chinese ppl. The loss of Japan car industries in China is looking like the mathematical n! factorial, where: n! = n x (n-1) x (n-2) x (n-3)x... x 1

This yeat it will lose 50%, and the following year, it will lose ANOTHER 50% of that remaining market share, and in a few years, it will be like 10-15%, thats right.

Sorry to be blunt, but the Chinese ppl are now basically saying: good riddance! and this time, they will make sure their conviction stands their grounds.

You can do all kinds of marketing etc etc.. but it wont work. This is JApan's own doing, unfortunately.

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