And number of tests unreported as of yet.
7 ( +9 / -2 )
1) this is non-peer reviewed and not published, 2) this is one publication so you always have to be careful with the data 3) there are serval ways to calculate excess death with different models and algorithms (e.g. Farrington algorithm) and the threshold is usually quite high (as you van see in their data if you cared to take a look)
As a scientist myself, I get quite annoyed by people not understanding processing data and giving their work catchy headlines for attention reasons. There is more research out there suggesting differently, so wouldn't get too excited by one none-reviewed manuscript.
Another main I want to make is not that I am convinced that we know the situation, as I was hoping for you to understand my my posts is that we are not sure because of the lack of testing. Another main point, besides this, are people like us living in Japan for a long time are tired of the government giving mixed messages on how to handle the pandemic: there is no leadership and above all, I hope we can all agree that handling a contagious virus is not done by encouraging people to go travel and to go eat.
Even if the cases are better than in the EU: I don't care, it would obviously be amazing, because I don't want people to die. The point is not that, because is it - again - not a game: the situation is obviously much worse because of all the reasons me and many commenters have been going through for a long time now. COVID-19 stats are an understatement in every country, but especially Japan, simply because of the lack of testing, before and after death.
I am not sure if you live in Japan or not, but if you do I think you should try to image how it is to live in a country with no leadership, having a government telling you mixed messages, a government encouraging people to go out and eat and drink and travel during a pandemic, a government choosing not to test people and choosing to make people pay for testing, to live in a country where the economy always comes before its people. There are no excuses how this government is handling the pandemic.
23 ( +28 / -5 )
If the methodology and amount of testing is completely different between groups of results, it scientifically cannot be compared directly. Your logic simply is incorrect.
17 ( +21 / -4 )
Come on, this is conspiracy theory. Do you have any evidence showing that it would be similar or worse? Anything?
This is not a conspiracy theory, it is a fact: we don't know, is a fact. There is no testing before or after death in Japan, so it is a scientific fact that we cannot compare the data of Japan to that of the EU.
Yes exactly, it falls into the realm of reality of possibilities. It may be that some commenters and readers read news about the numbers in Europe, and have the impression and people are falling dead on the streets of Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels and Berlin: there is no overflow of dead bodies in the EU either. For Japan to have thousands or tens of thousands extra death (hypothetically for the sake of the argument, not implying this is the case), there would not have to be any hiding of bodies. If elder people die in a higher abundance at their house, without getting tested, due to COVID-19, they will just get buried (burned) like normal, without being a COVID-19 number on the official Japanese list.
23 ( +26 / -3 )
Did I mention anything about hiding bodies? For a significantly excess amount of people to pass due to COVID-19 complications, one doesn't need to hide bodies at all.
16 ( +21 / -5 )
But that's the main point many people are trying to make. There is no testing, neither before nor after death, so we simply don't know. Is it similar, worse or better than in the EU? It's not a game so having that that: it's speculation, and one thing you don't want as a government and a citizen during a pandemic are wild speculations. Secondly, many hospitals are getting quite full here in Japan, so wouldn't be too sure.
22 ( +28 / -6 )
Yes, this, 2nd that.
18 ( +22 / -4 )
-1 ( +0 / -1 )
It seems strange indeed, but these are the official numbers (see their link in the article) from the local government, it takes 3 days to process in Japan (I guess because of fax systems...) and Sunday there is less testing (15th Nov) as many clinics are cloned, that's why the rate is always higher for Sunday, on average for the week it's around 6%.
1 ( +2 / -1 )
To be fair you can only get tested in Japan if you have strong symptoms so no wonder the ratio is high. Other countries tend to test a larger asymptomatic population.
There is nothing to be fair about; if there is no free testing and people with very mild symptoms might not wanna get or cannot get tested in Japan (because they don't have the right symptoms, because of social pressure or because it is expensive, or a mix of these) - and most people have mild or no symptoms - then you miss our on a lot of important data.
12 ( +15 / -3 )
@NipponGlory were you similarly "fully confident" a month ago? What changed?
20 ( +21 / -1 )
@Monty: In many EU countries (where they test 50-100x more than Japan by the way) corona figures have been significantly going down for a week now, because the governments are not actively telling people to go travel or go to restaurants on a discount.
You keep downplaying the virus and blame it all on the weather, there seems to be no critical thought about the Japanese government in your mind, just to the weather and some people "getting tired of this BS virus, like yourself". Fairly strange, I must say, but hey, blissful "the government is here to protect me"-ideas you have at least probably make you sleep a little better at night than me.
28 ( +35 / -7 )
Until people really take this serious which includes the government we are going to end up like the States and Europe.
I honestly think it's already like some EU countries now, just with 100x less testing...
13 ( +15 / -2 )
And now while everyone is enjoying Go To Eat, and many hotels are completely booked due to Go To Travel for the 3-day weekend about to come. Let's enjoy crowded trains, shops and restaurants together while spending for the economy! As long as you test 1000 people in the biggest metropolitan in the world, you're gonna find what you want to tell your people. Are dead citizens really worth the Olympics? I'm afraid the answer to the Japanese government is yes.
27 ( +35 / -8 )
Um, this statement literally doesn’t make sense. You went on to say that I’m right, but then went on to say the same thing about blanket testing. It doesn’t appear you know contact testing works.
Well, I was trying to be nice to you, and say that indeed contact tracing is important, but there cannot be contact tracing if there is no testing. It literally makes sense.
10 ( +13 / -3 )
Which 50,000+ people should Japan be selecting each day to do testing?
Just wondering about practical matters.
Japan should not select, the can be criteria, such as people who have been in contact with positively tested people, staff working in the hospitals, if they have symptoms (many EU countries write you can get tested if you have a runny nose, cold-like symptoms, are sneezing, have a sore throat, are coughing, have a fever, lose your sense of smell/taste, etc). And this in combination with free testing.
10 ( +13 / -3 )
You are right, but it really should be both: without enough testing there cannot be enough contact tracing, because people will also spread without being tested (obviously).
15 ( +17 / -2 )
These are Tokyo numbers, so I am comparing Tokyo.
Well, I did, but indeed my point ;)
To all the foreigners commenting negatively every time total infections are announced, why are you on this board if you have such a negative view of Japan? No one is claiming that Japan is superior its just that population due to their intelligence listen to the recommendations and therefore this results in lowering the infection rates than other countries. Its not really rocket science.....
I think that's the thing: people aren't really doing do much against COVID because the government is making it look like the situation is not so bad here: there is Go To Travel, Go To Eat, and for me, living in Japan (for a long time now), am worried to not know the Corona situation in Japan, because it has not being documented to a meaningful extend. As for my post, I agree with you, people should listen to the recommendation and mask-wearing is going well here, but I am pointing to posters that are constantly saying Japan is doing so well compared to other countries, but the data is not comparable to many EU countries. Also, I believe this is not a game, there are no losers or winners, everyone is losing, people are dying. We should know the extend of the virus, and Japan due to low testing has always been putting the economy first and their people last. This kind of criticism is important.
11 ( +16 / -5 )
3,540 tests conducted on Nov 7.
Likely the 293 cases are form however many tests they conducted on Monday, which we will find out on Thursday. No way they did 3500 on a Saturday.
The 3540 was from yesterday (Friday's number of tests), these 293 are based on 3001 tests (Saturday).
(By the way, similarly sized Belgium and The Netherlands are performing about 40.000-60.000 tests per day, in case people are going to start comparing in order to claim Japan's superiority again).
12 ( +16 / -4 )
I understand your point, and the main argument of my post was about the comparison of the figures and numbers.
However I do partly agree with your comment, I also partly disagree. It is true that in many cases things are cleaner in Japan, but if we are talking about hygiene in terms of corona virus prevention (which in its turn according to the Japanese people and many people on here causes the impossibly low numbers), I think it is largely a facade. While it is true that many places in Japan are cleaner than in the EU (such as trains and shopping malls), during the corona pandemic, now, the hygiene practices I was referring to were about hand cleaning with alcohol disinfectants: which is a point I am making because it (from my daily experience) is countering the main arguments so many people seem to throw out here. People, when entering and leaving the shops, are in fact largely not using the sprays or gels. Not in the city center, nor in inaka areas.
As for masks you are completely right and I agree Japanese people wear masks significantly better (including those plastic ones which completely have no function). But viruses spread also through skin contact when you don't use alcohol and in restaurants when you are not wearing a mask.
My main point being; the true practice of Japanese people on hygiene precautions in terms of the Corona virus is not as hygienic and perfect as they let the world think and can additionally not account to the low and incomparable numbers and figures of the corona situation in Japan.
But, I think it is indeed better to leave personal experience and feelings out of this, after living here for such a long time, I get tired of the "we Japanese people are so special, clean and better than the rest of the world" hypocritical and discriminating mentality, but without these statements, feelings, opinions and daily personal experiences, the figures and numbers are truly not comparable to that of the EU, as stated in my previous post.
3 ( +5 / -2 )
Everyone comparing data of other counties to Japan; it’s impossible to compare this one on one, especially in the case of Japan.
Every country different in: amount of tests per million (Japan is one of the lowest), accessibility of testing (Japan has no free testing, EU has), criteria of tests are different, methods of analysis differ, post-mortem diagnosis differs (Japan does not even do this), method of obtaining samples differ and much more.
It is very well possible that Japan has lower numbers than the EU. That being said: how is Tokyo gonna find more than 10k numbers if you are doing (paid) testing of up to 6000 people? With a positive rate of 4-10% (hypothetical number) Japan needs to test 100.000-250.000 people in Tokyo alone daily to get a similar number as in the EU if the infection rate would be as such...
its in our nature to compare but this is not that simple and we have to be critical of the Japanese numbers, that is only logical. I don’t understand why there is still a daily battle going on on this website where people compare deaths and positive test numbers: it doesn’t work like that use your brain!
just a side note: someone mentioned Japanese people are clean and use alcohol; in the EU, baskets in the supermarket are cleaned and in many countries an maximum number of people can enter. In Osaka where I live I’d be lucky if I see 10% of the people using the alcohol hand spray in front of the store, it’s all a facade. Like most things in Japan its just face; wear a mask in your car, but take it of in the restaurants sitting next to groups of people in unventilated izakaya’s. Don’t make me laugh xD
14 ( +18 / -4 )
@Nihonview: I hope you are ironically talking about your own daily comments?
8 ( +10 / -2 )
@i@n: I don't want to waste more energy on this, so this is my last post about it, it is the truth, take it or leave it (am not going to defend more to a Monty-ignorance, complete waste). To answer your question: she was not allowed to attend the funeral (obviously you can enter the other prefectures) because she (and other members) were from other prefectures, just like her husband, and other family members. The brother and his wife live in the same prefecture, so they were allowed to attend the funeral. This is my best friend, so I know there are no lies here. Can't believe some people here.
6 ( +9 / -3 )
@AG: I also see many here in Osaka without masks, especially when they are out in the izakayas, bars and restaurants. Japan is "selling" it's Japan Model with the three C's, always wants to export something, and idea, concept, but with little weight.
Not to discuss here not the numbers up/down trending, etc, but something related;
Wanted to mention here something I did not know and was shocked about. One of my best friends (Japanese) was allowed to travel to many different places within the past months (visited many prefectures, including Hokkaido last week (she was on that diverted Niigata flight because that man didn't wanna wear a mask, coincidentally!)).
Anyway, although this is OK (spending money on the economy by GoTo traveling with your friends around the country), it was NOT ok to visit her own biological father's funeral this week, because this was in another prefecture. What?! These rules are so hypocritical and make me furious. Super sad.
16 ( +20 / -4 )
Diabete, obesity and other factors explain the death rate. Japan is (currently) protected from that thanks to a better diet.
I don't think japanese health system or governement actions have something to do with it.
Yea, these factors have a big influence, there is a lot of scientific data suggesting this.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
@Reckless, yes indeed you are right and I’m not saying this at all. Maybe you didn’t read my post, but I was talking about many other EU countries. Spain and Italy were indeed horrific.
-1 ( +1 / -2 )
Even if you look at the official Japanese numbers, with the low testing and without postmortem autopsies etc, there are more daily corona deaths in Japan than most European countries. E.g. yesterday in Japan it was +17, while in Germany it was 4, The Netherlands was 0, Belgium was 1, Sweden was 0, Switzerland was 1. Of course the USA has been incomparably horrible. Which is just terrible. My points always here have been that it may just very probably be true that Japan did not have an extreme situation during this corona crisis, such as overflowing hospitals. But the same is true for most European countries, even during the first wave, and this is especially true for the second wave. I am very happy and glad that the situation in Japan has not been like the USA, and I will never state this. I do get however very tired of all these people on this website saying how Japan is doing such a great job, while the situation here now is worse than in most EU countries, and where the government is not doing anything to increase testing, to implement policies and to be transparent. And no, I am not implying at all that the government is hiding bodies, or weird comments sometimes posted here. The world is not black and white, it is not either "control" or "hiding bodies", it is somewhere in between, where the hospitals are not overflowing, fortunately, and where the government is doing almost nothing, and there there is no post-mortem testing so the scale of things here is just literally largely unknown. There have not been hiding bodies and extreme things like that, but because of the low testing, unknown infection routes and no postmortem autopsies, even if you look at May, two days ago a new analysis came out (https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2020083100804) suggesting that month the excess deaths may have been 2600 (and that is 3 months ago). My point is not - just to be clear again - that Japan is not overflowing and bodies are being hidden. My point entirely is that the more realistic numbers are far worse than the official numbers, which is true in every country, but especially Japan.
10 ( +13 / -3 )
@n1k1: “truly know”, well if you are going to micromanage my wording I will agree with you 100%, because that indeed is impossible to achieve in any country. There is always underestimates, many EU countries say their counts are about 2x or so (depending on the country, you can search it yourself) and are transparent about the whole corona crisis management, policies and choices. Many European counties have weekly meetings with their Health Institutes and all citizens can watch this and are explained the choices and the situation. On the other part of the spectrum, Abe has hardly ever spoken, all meetings are not public, and even for many decision meetings no notes are taken. Also, to come back to your “truly know” point, Japan says the underestimation is very low and the numbers are basically accurate (this was in the news a feels ago, you can search it). So my point is not that Japan is the only country where the true numbers are unknown. I’m talking about the scale and I’m talking about transparency, policies and about leadership. If you disagree we just have to agree to disagree...
2 ( +6 / -4 )
Yea, me neither.
Also, I also think there are different conversations going under these articles: one is about the handling of the virus by the government, including transparency, leadership and policies, and the other is about how the corona situation is in Japan. I think these conversations are ofter blurred.
I think it is a simple fact that the first conversation is an easy one: there is no clear leadership, nor transparency nor viral control by the government. For people saying the Japanese government is on top of things and is a model for the rest of the world, is like saying a red pen is blue.
On the other hand, regarding the situation in Japan: we don't truly know how extensive it is, because there is not so much testing compared to many other countries. Simultaneously, it is possible that the pandemic is better here than other countries (especially the US, Italy and Spain). If this is true, then this is because of the Japanese people, or because of luck, or a virus genotype, or a combination of this, at least not due to the governments efforts. However, the second wave is not as severe in many other European countries (such as Belgium, Germany, Sweden, The Netherlands and many more), where there basically has been no deaths since the second wave in Japan started, while in Japan the numbers are going up. Also total death / positives ratio is not that significantly higher in Japan compared to these countries (ignoring the USA, and Italy and such), especially when looking at these county's different policies in screening, testing and counting positives. To say Japan is doing better than most countries is simply not true. Partly because the situation is not that clear, and aso because the numbers that are out there, especially during this second wave, (such as many EU countries, and other Asian countries) show that this is not the case. This is like saying a purple pen in green, but in reality we don't know the exact color of this pen.
9 ( +12 / -3 )
Of the total, 129 are in their 20s and 30s, and 60 in their 40s and 50s.
They should also focus on the elderly, as that amount is going up, 60+ is 32 people (12.8%)
6 ( +7 / -1 )