And you continuously fail to understand that the numbers are meaningless unless the testing is dramatically increased. If you test only 2000 people you are not going to find 10.000 cases.
Add on top of that the fact that post-mortem tests are very rarely done (if ever), and you get low number of cases and low number of deaths reported.
So by itself there is nothing that can be concluded from those numbers, whichever "side" you are on. However we can look at other countries and see what happened when they increased their testing. Spoiler alert, they found even more cases.
Countries that have correctly implemented measure are almost out of this mess (e.g. New Zealand, Iceland, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and countless others, especially islands). Countries that have denied it existed or that it was dangerous will have slow economic activity for at least one more year (such is the case in Japan).
As it stands, the Olympics will be canceled next year, so will any tourism in countries that still have uncontrollable number of cases (in Japan more than 60% of cases are of unknown origin and untraceable). The impact to the economy (esp; since Japan exports more than it imports) will be very high.
Unfortunately, the current government gave up the science.
11 ( +16 / -5 )
Comparing with previous day is meaningless, when will journalist ever learn?
Something more useful is to compare with the same day last week. On August 2nd, they were only 292 new cases, 239 on July 26th. So the trend is going up, the exact opposite of what the article is suggesting.
7 ( +9 / -2 )
It also urged them to ventilate classrooms, while properly using air conditioners to lower temperatures.
What about constructing buildings with proper insulation?
Air conditioning in summer and excessive heating in winter just accelerates climate change, meaning each year will get worst than the previous one. (cf HFC and second law of thermodynamics for the scientifically illiterate).
9 ( +9 / -0 )
The panel proposed assessing six types of data such as hospital bed occupancy rates, percentage of people testing positive and a weekly tally of newly reported infections per 100,000 people in deciding whether to intensify local responses.
What about just following WHO's guidelines? This has already been discussed by a lot of countries involved in WHO and they decided that more than 5% of positive cases means that more tests are required.
Tokyo has been above 5% of positive cases for a month, yet the testing has barely increased.
And on top of that, they are incapable of doing proper tracing with more than 60% cases from unknown origin and not followed by any effort to trace more.
Sources: their own data at https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/
10 ( +11 / -1 )
@Wesley yes because retaliation as you call it which is in fact vengeance is even worse.
1 ( +3 / -2 )
May do this, may say that.
Stop talking and do it Koike.
4 ( +6 / -2 )
@Speed that is very unlikely. They can't postpone the next games as well.
Let's face it, there is 0% chance the Games will be held next year. Even in the best case scenario or a vaccine being available and the pandemic to have seriously slowed down, it will not have completely disappeared.
Given that the Japanese government has proven to the world that they are incapable of dealing with a small outbreak (no nearly enough testing, and more than 50% or infection routes unknown = no proper tracing), I don't think any country will take the risk to send their athletes or officials.
If Japan wants to be serious about the Olympics, they must first completely contain the spread here. And that implies a form of lockdown and 10 times more testing.
7 ( +8 / -1 )
by contracting this virus they’re going to die.
No but you might transmit it to someone who will die of it, or have a long lasting illness because of it.
5 ( +9 / -4 )
@bass4funk Trump supporter detected.
Fauci's advice were always based on what was known at the time. If his advice had been followed, there wouldn't be a need to revise them since the number of cases wouldn't have been that high.
At the start of the pandemic, masks were less necessary that proper lockdown measures. But masks were very important for medical workers so it was better to let them have it.
Masks are only effective if the number of cases is low. When it is high, the best measure is still to refrain from going outside or meeting people.
4 ( +6 / -2 )
Exactly, this "bonus" system is in fact a "penalty" system where company can reduce salaries of their employees without having to renegociate the contract. I experienced it the first year I was in Japan, where my promised "3-month" bonus became "2-month" and then "1-month" because I started working on the second day of a month and thus that month was not eligible for the calculation of the bonus.
Fortunately, in my current job I asked to have a fixed salary with no bonuses.
5 ( +5 / -0 )
Poor choice of words from the author of the article.
"To lift" is ambiguous as it could mean "to increase" (like here) or "to remove" (as in removing a weight figuratively) which is also used in the same article: "Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lifted a nationwide state of emergency in late May" and has the exact opposite meaning.
I had to read the article carefully to make sure it which one it meant.
10 ( +10 / -0 )
With only about 2000 tests per day, which gives a 10 % positive rate, well above the 5 % threshold that the WHO classifies as "concerning". 10% being "caused for alarm", so should we be "alarmed"?
And let's not forget that above 40 % of infection routes are unknown (in other words either voluntarily not tracked, or impossible to track).
And that's from the official numbers: https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/. Who knows what's the real extent of the epidemic in Japan?
8 ( +10 / -2 )
@erbaviva if it was a flu, summer weather would have made it disappear. The fact there are still transmission case in June/July should be concerning as it is supposed to be the season with the lowest rate, especially as temperatures rise.
As soon as autumn season arrives, it will increase again and explode during the next winter (where respiratory diseases such as pneumonia are the most dangerous).
At that point, the Olympics should be cancelled, there is no realistic scenario where it would still be possible to hold them. And I say that as a volunteer that was looking forward participating it his first Olympics.
15 ( +19 / -4 )
0.1 % on average in Japan, means more than 125.000 cases, putting it at the same level than countries in Europe and way above the official 17.000 cases. The difference with Europe is that, they have tested more, done better tracing, so their official number of cases is much closer to the real number of cases.
With more than 90% of cases undetected in Japan, they should have extended the state of emergency, not stopped it.
3 ( +8 / -5 )
Yeah. Let's solve bullying by more bullying. They really have no clues.
7 ( +8 / -1 )
@Meiyouwenti January/February is not an issue since that's just one semester away from September.
The issue is with April that is only a quarter away from either January or September. In lots of countries, university credits/grades/exams are based on semester. Having Japan start in April, means exchange student/professor must skip or repeat one quarter. That makes lots of potential exchangees consider other countries before Japan, which is bad for academic progress/conference in Japan.
Fiscal year is irrelevant.
4 ( +4 / -0 )
Many companies in the world have finally started realizing that a lot of employees are more efficient when they don't have to commute 2 hours every day.
I personally love it. And I can actually work longer hours (connecting a bit earlier and logging off a bit later) without much trouble or without being more tired, while being able to wake up later.
7 ( +7 / -0 )
Storm in a cup of tea.
2 ( +2 / -0 )
How about this?
You must be joking? You use a tabloid website known for its unreliable articles. And use a "nobel prize-winning" scientist that has no scientific background in epidemiology.
Next time we should ask a Pulitzer-winning journalist or an Oscar-winning film director maybe (or maybe my 96 years old Grandma, she must be very wise and knowledgeable at that age). What a joke!
1 ( +6 / -5 )
So Tokyo is using "medical institution inspections" which are not PCR tests as a justification for less cases and artificially low positive/negative ratio.
Despite WHO and experts advice that asymptomatic people are the one spreading the disease. So just because a person has no symptoms it shouldn't be concluded as a negative case.
Where they pretend that more than 1000 tests have been conducted when in fact only 80 are actual tests. Reopening under those blind conditions is just irresponsible.
-1 ( +7 / -8 )
Exactly. I can hear my neighbor walking or taking shower (here every single drop).
Usually it doesn't bother me, except when they take their shower at 2 am. In my country, they are first regulations for noise in construction (so the shower noise case would never happen) and laws that forbid excessive noises after 10 pm. But Japan only have laws for factories or construction, none for neighbors.
Proper noise insulation is not expensive, so construction companies have zero excuses. And according to the article, it could actually save lives. Nobody likes being disturbed at home when relaxing after a day of work (or worse at night while sleeping). I had to move out 3 times in 4 years before I could find a place where the neighborhood was not too noisy.
27 ( +27 / -0 )
An excellent piece everyone should read: Japan's coronavirus response is flawed -- but it works
Written by someone with zero medical background. Pass.
Andy Crump is a consultant at the Medical Governance Research Institute, or MEGRI, and a visiting professor at Kitasato University, Keio University and St Luke's International University in Tokyo. He previously worked as a multimedia communications officer at the World Health Organization for 15 years. Since 2004, he has handled the English-language communications for Nobel Prize-winning biochemist Satoshi Omura.
0 ( +4 / -4 )
Excerpts: "As a result, Japan now has 31,289 dedicated COVID-19 beds, which are at at only 17.1% occupancy."
Well if you refuse people in hospital, by definition your beds remain unoccupied.
10 ( +15 / -5 )
@nakanoguy01 Arguably in gyms, people sweat a lot and breathe more heavily which could be a factor.
On the other hand, people feeling sick are less likely to go to the gym and more likely to go to the theater. So both should remain closed.
But again, we are talking about Japan here. In the country where culturally people don't really question the rules and just follow them.
0 ( +1 / -1 )
@Blacklabel None of your affirmations are true.
Masks: when was he wrong? He always said that mask don't protect you much (true) and that the people tha need it most are health workers (also true).
Death count model: there is no such thing.
GIlead treatment drug: it is still an unproven drug pushed by private interests.
Cruises: I don't know what he said about that.
4 ( +7 / -3 )
Turned away for more than two days while having strong symptoms. This is just criminal. I hope the sumo association sues the hospitals which refused giving him treatment.
Doctors are bound by oath to "do no harm".
19 ( +19 / -0 )
Worried that they are just "considering" to use them. Similar tests have been available for months. But they were not produced in Japan, so I guess they made their choice: nationalism instead of saving lives.
The tests can detect the virus quickly but produce false negatives at a higher rate than the currently dominant PCR, or polymerase chain reaction, tests.
False negatives are fine (no test is 100% perfect). The goal of these tests is not to tell you that you are not infected but to detect people which are (or have been). Even if the test was 100% accurate, testing negatively wouldn't prevent you to get it later.
False positives are more problematic but it doesn't look like those tests have a lot of cases like that.
-1 ( +1 / -2 )
@i@n I quote your own comment:
As of yesterday, May 10, occupancy is 2518/4800 or 52.4%.
There is no such thing on this website. There is no stats regarding occupancy. That number "4800" (now 4868) is the number of cases. It has nothing to do with beds.
1 ( +1 / -0 )
i@n You should read the stopcovid19 website properly. There are no stats there regarding number of patients versus number of beds.
You are interpreting the number of people testing positive as the number of beds which is nonsensical.
1 ( +1 / -0 )