Objective comments

GdTokyoToday  06:22 pm JST

There really is no way to spin this. It’s bad. Very bad. And when Japan’s notoriously brittle health care system hits the breaking point, people will be dying in their homes because there won’t be a place to treat them.

To treat who? The elderly are well on their way to be protected. People under 50 (which is 70%+ of the cases) statistically don't end up in the hospital, or worse off dead. Be thankful things are getting better.

@N.M. Even if COVID is less severe on a younger population, the more people get infected, the more likely a variant that resist to the current vaccine will appear. And which point, all the progress to protect the people at risk (e.g. the elderly) will be for naught.

As long as you believe this. It surely has not been proven. Let's look at what we know.

so the Covid testing worked?

@Pim : small day-to-day increases...really??? As I said, compared to earlier in the year and you will see significant drops in serious cases and deaths. This is all due to vaccinations and the fact it is mainly the young who are infected now.

Please read my comments from last week to present. My words, unfortunately, we’re spot on. My doctor friend told me last Friday there would be a thousand cases a day. Unofficially, he said the cases are much higher. My friend wo works in the kuakusho said there will be 2000 cases a day after the Olympics.

You can bet there are already more than 2000 in Tokyo but that has no meaning when the majority are connected to young, healthy adults and children. The worst is behind us as the elderly are getting protected quickly. Most of the elderly (over 50%) are FULLY vaccinated and over 70% have had at least one shot. I don't think personal or anecdotal predictions add to the situation. It is best to look at the numbers we know.

71.7% under 50 years old. This rate keeps climbing. It means that the elderly are MUCH more protected than in earlier in the year. This is proven by the reduced number of deaths and serious cases.

The likelihood of an under-50 year old succumbing to Corona is statistically low, especially if they have taken care of themselves. Most of the young people won't even know they have it.

Things are getting better despite the "scary" 4 digit number in a population of over 12M people.

It isn't the end of the world. Nothing is shut down and we should be thankful for that.

The GOHT!

Thank god we live in Japan and not Australia.

Both 400mH finals are going to be fantastic. McLaughlin and Warholm are in such great form coming off WR runs. Looking forward to it.

Young Japanese adults have access to rumors, conjecture, and medical studies. We all do. Whether they get the vaccine or not, it is their prerogative and their personal choice should be respected.

@somedude Until Kono orders the pace slowed due to his inability to get the required amount of vaccine. Which he just did.

You left out the numbers. Originally planned 700-800K vaccines a day. It reached 1.5M per day. They are calculating a drop to 1.2M a day. This is still a VERY fast pace and the majority (50%+) of the elderly are fully vaccinated already with 70%+ having at least one shot. That doesn't factor in that many of the elderly will choose not to get the vaccine. The rollout began very late in Japan but they made up for lost ground.

Oh, nice. Congratulations! Just keep going with the state of emergency and all is well. It's only been a 17 months.

Not sure what country you are living in but here in Japan daily life hasn't been affected as much as in other nations. No business shut-downs and full freedom to do what you want and travel where you want. Vaccine rollout was slow to get going but over 1M jabs a day is incredibly good. The elderly are finally getting protected in large numbers. That is why we are seeing fewer deaths and fewer seriously ill. Even with an uptick of Delta variant cases, 70% of the infected are under 50 years old which is MUCH different than earlier in the year. Statistically, the majority of people under the age of 50 will fully recover from Covid, or not even know they have it.

Today the Tokyo Covid cases skew 70% under the age of 50, up 5% from yesterday.

This is why the death rate will be much lower than earlier in the year, even if those deaths could appear 3 weeks from now (as @Antiquesaving mentioned before.)

We could eventually hit or surpass Tokyo highs of over 2400 cases that were seen after Golden Week. But it won't have the same punch with so many people protected either by vaccines (one or two doses) or if we consider the strong immune systems in the youth.

Japan has fared much better than other countries.

@drlucifer

Any data to support your statement that the delta variant isn't deadlier. So how many deaths before it can be viewed as deadly ?

There is no data to support it is deadlier. I never said it wasn't deadly and I agree that a statistically tiny amount of younger people will die from Covid as they do from the flu. And no, I am not comparing the two in terms of disease. The government has to apply a risk assessment and make decisions based on those numbers. They must accept that some people will die because it is a pandemic that targets mainly seniors and unhealthy folks. You cannot shut down an economy based on the numbers we are seeing. If Japan was seeing deaths like in Europe, then they would likely consider taking stronger measures.

First off, why is 1000 such an important number to media? This 1000 marker really means nothing. We must look at the other numbers given to us. We can assume that there are WAY more cases in Tokyo but we will never know. The data that is important today is that 65% of those confirmed with Covid are under 50 years old. This means that ALMOST ALL of those people will not take up valuable hospital beds. This is MUCH different than earlier in the year.

Also, the 19% fully vaccinated rate increases daily, skewing high with seniors, so it is obvious that the elderly are getting protected which will reduce the number of that demographic being infected. The delta variant may be more transmissible but it isn't deadlier and it is showing that the youth, with stronger immune systems, are getting it in higher proportion.

Finally, if the argument is to save every life possible within Japan we could get silly and draw up plans to prevent every vehicle accident in Japan. But you all know what that would require and it doesn't make sense.

Japan was slow to rollout vaccines. But they are doing it fast now. The whole time the economy could function and the public had no freedoms taken away. We have been able to go on with our lives in a very normal matter. When the world looks back on the pandemic I think Japan will be seen as having a very sensible approach. Countries like Australia will be the laughing stock.

Except few people I think majority here on JT would jump at a chance to get vaccinated if they have voucher.....

JT posters do not reflect the Japanese public's opinion of getting vaccinated. I speak to Japanese people daily and very few want anything to do with the vaccine. Most of these people are between 20-50 years old. Of course this is anecdotal but please don't assume the general public is in full support of it.

there is only 1 problem with statement by Suga. You believe what he says to be true. I feel he is a stranger to the truth.

At this point that is the most official number I have found on that age group of vaccinated. It was printed in the Yomiuri so we can hope and trust they fact checked it. Assuming it is inaccurate does not make your assumptions fact. Best to use what data we have.

LeeroyToday  05:31 pm JST

Get all those over 60s vaccinated and the fatality rate will drop.

Read in the Yomiuri newspaper today that on Wednesday during the cabinet meeting Suga stated that nearly 60% of the elderly have had at least one shot. Mind you, I am not sure what age he determined as elderly. But that is a very promising number. The article went on to say that this increase of vaccinations was the likely reason for the death rate and serious case rate to fall over the past few weeks. It appears that most new cases are younger people who fight Covid off much easier.

Bjorn TomentionToday  04:37 pm JST

They can have my one, please go ahead !

It is true that the demand for the vaccine is relatively low in Japan so 3M doses of AZ to help other countries is a logical and compassionate thing to do.

Encouraging a healthy and active lifestyle such as outdoor hiking will go a long ways to help combat diseases such as Corona. Get some Vitamin D on a sunny day and work out your heart. Better than most medicines!

klausdorth

My error. I was on the Vaccine Doses metric which was vaccines per 100 people. That number is 34% which was an overlook. We are closer to 25% in Japan and growing at about 2 points every 4-5 days which is very fast and encouraging. I will try to be better when posting data. But I won't post conjecture or assumptions based on feelings, only the public numbers given.

@Antiquesaving There will be fewer deaths and hospitalizations because millions of vaccines are being administered weekly. 44M doses to date, or 34% of the population has at least one dose. And we know one dose will protect better than none.

source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=JPN

With this incredibly fast pace, the vulnerable will be protected much better than before when there were real spikes. So NO, there will not be a significant rise in hospitalizations and deaths. We are seeing this in every country that has vaccinated so many people.

AntiquesavingToday  10:09 pm JST

You are basing your conclusions on NO data. I am basing my conclusions ONLY on data. I agree that the number of tests are lower than in other countries but it doesn't allow you to assume anything...

"at this point infection rates are so high even low testing...."

so high and low testing means nothing since those are not numbers. We do however know: number of deaths, number of seriously ill, occupancy rate of hospitals, number of cases in every prefecture, number of vaccinations.

Honestly, how can most of you posting agree that a major increase in cases was measured in Tokyo? You have ALWAYS claimed that the numbers are inaccurate. You can't have it both ways. When the numbers kept dropping you claimed foul.

Look at at the overall numbers for Japan and you will see that things are getting better from month to month (Fewer deaths, fewer seriously ill, lower hospital occupancy rate, falling number of people presenting with symptoms, falling number of cases in Japan (most prefectures.) The vaccinations are protecting the vulnerable more than ever before.

Thomas GoodtimeToday  08:38 pm JST

It's safe to say the Japan method has been a disaster. If only the true numbers were reported.

Sure doesn't feel like a disaster in Japan. Are the "fake" numbers MORE "fake" now because they are falling? Reality: Fewer deaths, fewer seriously ill, lower hospital occupancy rate, falling number of people presenting with symptoms, falling number of cases in Japan (most prefectures.)

Or will we shift to the Delta variant conjecture and run with those fears for the next month?

With multi-millions of vaccinations happening weekly, things are heading in the right direction. It is obvious but surprisingly unpopular on this forum.

*"These are tough decisions," Queensland state Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said*

They spelled "draconian" wrong.

40 out of 8,456 tests (positivity rate: 0.5%; the 7-day average: 0.8%)

That positivity rate seems low since it isn't a random Covid test. These are tests that are done to mainly people with symptoms. So you are saying the general population is likely a LOT less than 0.5%? It is good news either way.

Please state some facts in order to back up claims that deny things have turned in a positive direction. The public facts and numbers tell us this: fewer deaths, fewer seriously ill, lower hospital occupancy rate, falling number of people presenting with symptoms, falling number of cases in most prefectures. The 40M vaccine doses administered over the past 2 months is helping immensely combined with the strange X-Factor Japan seems to have had since the beginning of the pandemic.

An interesting article by Osumi Noriko, Professor, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine

https://japan-covid19.japanpolicyforum.jp/society/pt202011112010793.html

**@theResident **In 2-3 months time at this rate we will be on a proper return to normailty.

Shot #1 for me this week - No need to run away to other countries anymore.

YUP! You are following the logic. Well done! So rare to see on this forum. All the best! Enjoy your summer.

Again, using MAY in a headline is not sincere. They could use MAY NOT and it would mean the same thing. Sensationalism based on conjecture.