OJ comments

anon99999, I have no doubt that there are a large number of people who are asymptomatic or believe they have a cold/flu/allergies and don't try to get tested. I don't think the system could handle the strain if everybody wanted a test. The people being tested on a daily basis, for the most part, either have symptoms of covid or are close contacts of someone who has tested positive. From the outset, Japan's approach has been centered around hospitalization and treating severe cases. Whether people agree with that stance or not, it's not likely to change any time soon. The point some of us have been trying to make is that if you have symptoms, or you've been in close contact with someone who tested positive, it is possible to get a test. You do have to organize it yourself, however there are some cases where the ward offers group testing. I am not sure if we will ever get to the stage where there is drive-through testing or mass testing like other countries have done. I thought a lot of countries were moving away from that model.

That article is about the demand for rapid lateral flow test kits, which were previously available from drugstores. FWIW, I tested negative with one of those kits the night before my positive diagnosis. If you're going to use them, you need to do multiple checks over the course of a few days, IMO.

I have been tested twice and both times it was covered by my healthcare insurance. I don't know if that is the case for non-symptomatic cases, however.

From my experience of testing positive for coronavirus, only my immediate family were deemed close contacts. However, the people around me were able to get tested either using antigen kits supplied by the ward office, or through private clinics. Some tested positive, others didn't. I haven't heard of anyone who was unable to get a test. I don't necessarily agree with the definition of a close contact in Japan, and I know people who are unhappy about the fact that infected people and close contacts are able to return to work/school without a negative test result, but I will say that as swamped as they are right now, the health officials did contact me personally about my health condition, as did the private clinic where I was tested, and the ward office.

I tested positive for corona two weeks ago. I'll tell you what the numbers mean to me -- 18,287 other people who have to go through the same period of illness and isolation.

My problem with the testing is that if you work at a school, for example, and a teacher or a student tests positive, if everyone has been wearing the correct masks, the classrooms are properly ventilated, and nobody spoke when they took their masks off, then the inspectors will declare that the infected person has no close contacts and the school can remain open. The health inspectors test the family members of infected people, but I feel that they don't have the capacity to test large numbers of close contacts.

IIRC, there are around 3700 medical institutions that conduct these tests. They have a capacity of 40,000 tests per day. The Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Public Health has a capacity of 1000 tests per day.

Foreigner in Tokyo,

If you’re tested using National Healthcare Insurance it gets reported to the Public Health Center. If you pay for the test yourself, and you test positive, you are supposed to be referred to the PHC, but reporting the case isn’t obligatory. There was some talk about including self-financed tests on these daily numbers but I guess that boat has sailed.

Why does Osaka's testing drop on Tuesdays? 8544 less than yesterday. Same thing happened last week.

The clinics aren’t open on Sunday hence the low levels of testing and reported cases.

The of people who tested positive on Sat was 2729 and on Sun 1093. Those numbers will be bumped up over the next few days with more reported cases.

I don't understand why you have such a hard time grasping the fact that there is a delay between confirmed tests and reported cases. Do you really think 13.316 samples were taken yesterday, tested in a laboratory, and the results confirmed and reported in time for today's release?

These are newly reported cases, not people who tested positive yesterday. In most cases, they tested positive 1-2 days ago, although some may have tested positive 3-5 days ago. You cannot calculate the positivity rate for yesterday based on the PDF in the article. Most of yesterday's test results haven't been confirmed yet, and the results won't be released for another 1-2 days. The best you can do is calculate the positivity rate for these reported cases using the 3 day average for testing.

Once a week, the stopcovid site updates info on each positive case, including onset of symptoms, date of confirmation and date released. Most positive cases are announced within 1-2 days of the date of confirmation. However, I was surprised that some are 4-5 days old.

Here are the number of positive cases by date of confirmation:

8/24 3307

8/23 3805

8/22 2093

8/21 3719

8/20 5143

8/19 4899

8/18 5594

If you go to the stopcovid site, you can find a breakdown of confirmed cases by day on the other indexes page.

Antiquesaving,

I am aware of the difficulty in getting a test with healthcare insurance, although personally I was able to get one with moderate symptoms and no close contacts (it depends on the physician.) I don't agree with the way they define close contacts in Japan, either, and agree that your daughter's colleagues should have qualified for free testing under healthcare insurance. My point is that the majority of these reported cases are people seeking testing through medical institutions or being tested as close contacts. If the government had opened testing centers and were testing anyone who wanted to be tested, then I could understand the skepticism of reduced testing. But we know the way testing works in Japan. We know that the government makes it difficult for people to get free tests. Is the government telling medical institutions to test less? Possibly. Up unto a few months ago, they weren't even including data from medical institutions, so we were getting even less data.

My understanding about the adjusted figures is that they are reports that are received after the daily cutoff (which I believe is 9am.) If there are positive results, they will be included in the next press release, but the test itself will be included as the day the sample was taken. I could be wrong about that, but that's how I understand it.

The majority of these tests are conducted by medical institutions, not the government itself. There have been less tests at medical institutions this week. Whether that's because the institutions are declining to test people,, or there are less patients presenting with symptoms, who knows. It may depend on the ward, but from personal experience, inspectors seem reluctant to determine people as close contacts. That may be a reason why some of the testing is down. The rolling average is only down by a few hundred, so it's not a huge drop off in cases.

Please remember that these figures are the newly reported cases, not the number of people who tested positive yesterday. The testing figures are adjusted depending on when the reported cases are filed. It takes a few days for the figures to be finalized. If you have been tested for COVID, you'll know that you don't receive your result until the next day and then the result is included in the newly reported cases for the following day.

I believe these are results only include tests that were covered by National Health Care insurance as well. They also include antigen tests, IIRC, which may lead to quicker results and reporting.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government doesn't do widespread community testing. There is barely any contract tracing, and the definition of a close contact is less stringent than other countries. If the number of tests are going down, it's because fewer people are being tested at medical institutions. The situation is by no means improving, however. The 7 day average is the highest it's been. We can't assume that this wave has plateaued just yet. The effective reproduction rate is still over 1. In order to curb infections it needs to be less than 1. The consistently high 7 day average seems to indicate that each carrier is infecting an additional person.

The test numbers in these reports are preliminary and not confirmed data. If you look at the pdf from yesterday, you'll see adjustments made to the test numbers for the past few days. Yesterday, the test number for 8/17 was given as 15, 051. In today's report it was revised to 17, 785.

The number of tests is fairly consistent throughout the week. The test numbers are low on the weekend when medical institutions are closed, spike on Monday due to folks who couldn't get tested on the weekend, then remain consistent from Wed-Fri.

@titin

Their rationale is that if you're in ICU but not on respiratory support, they don't count you as a severe case. Not saying I agree with it, but that is their rationale.

These results are not based on tests that were conducted yesterday. They are based on outbreak reports that were received yesterday. The process of testing, sending the sample to a lab, getting the result back, notifying the patient and submitting the outbreak report can take several days. I doubt that today's figures include many patients that were tested on Saturday. Those results are more likely to be included in Monday and Tuesday's figures. What this data tells us is that there are 4295 new cases. It doesn't really matter what day the infection was confirmed.

As far as I understand, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government likes to use 7 day moving averages when calculating the number of new cases per day and the positivity rate. According to their figures, the positivity rate is hovering around 24%.

Today number of 5094 is as a result of number of tests done yesterday at 10402 - this works out to a positivity rate of 49% - crazy high number again

Hi Jim,

The numbers aren't based on the tests from yesterday. They include results from the past few days. That's why they use the 3 day moving average of 13, 429. I believe they adjust the figures later. There's no doubt that the positivity rate is climbing, however.