Buckle up lads, H5N1 is snowballing out of control globally including (especially) in Japan, and with exponential spread there is exponential risk of a random mutation that makes this suddenly highly transmissible in humans too… animal trials so far put it at over 50% mortality which would make Covid look like a rehearsal.
-13 ( +5 / -18 )
never was in control, never could be in control (with todays medical science)… at best we can take short term measures like quarantining to slow infection spread or vaccination to minutely affect infection severity. humanity has yet to eradicate any quickly mutating highly contagious virus. coronavirii predate humanity, sars-cov2 is but a strain… tomorrow it could be influenza that mutates in a particularly unpleasant way a la spanish flu, and there’s little we can do about it.
-1 ( +2 / -3 )
Japan needs to be better prepared to defend itself, but without relying on the USA. They should move to increase domestic production of modern weaponry, expand the Japanese military and close all American bases in Japanese territory.
-1 ( +1 / -2 )
The vast majority are using masks when appropriate and are fully vaccinated (myself included) but the figures are hardly any different from less developed countries that have had comparatively little to no measures or vaccination.
1 ( +10 / -9 )
If only we had listened to Xi and lived in an authoritarian dystopia these last two years, we could’ve had a really low death count while people were imprisoned in their homes. You may argue that the death count will just end up being as high as other countries now that china has dropped their strategy and the virus is unleashed on a population with zero natural immunity and poor vaccine efficacy, but think of all the frail and elderly who got the chance to live two more blissful years cut off from friends, family and social stimulation in their beautiful, tower block, shoebox apartments.
-5 ( +4 / -9 )
good point, I do agree that pcr negative unvaccinated visitors are safer for Japanese society (but maybe not for themselves) than vaccinated individuals who took no such test and may very well be infected when entering. Perhaps PCR for all for a little while longer?
-4 ( +3 / -7 )
I agree with many of your points but do think vaccine/pcr entry requirements are working quite well and don’t need to be dropped just yet as cases swell again - perhaps after the peak has been reached and cases are subsiding. Even if the healthcare system has a good buffer and isn’t up near capacity currently, it might be wise to err on the side of caution versus letting easily or recently infected people zip from place to place all over the country possibly infecting numerous others for the few weeks they’re here.
-4 ( +3 / -7 )
The vaccines had higher statistical efficacy for delta than now for omicron. The vaccine is still effective for preventing serious symptoms including death, but it was even more so for the novel and delta variants.
Its also misleading to state that all Covid related deaths are actually caused primarily by the virus, rather than being a secondary or tertiary cause of death in the majority of cases.
2 ( +7 / -5 )
its kinda like how .22 is the deadliest calibre of bullet in the USA if you’re going by total deaths inflicted with it, because it’s used much more prevalently than larger more damaging rounds which are much deadlier on a case by case basis. They’re both technically more deadly but by different metrics. Coconuts are deadlier than sharks by the same reasoning mr McCarthy employs as they cause more deaths annually.
It is preferable to be infected with omicron versus the original novel virus or delta variant, but you can technically call omicron deadlier because it’s the one that came along when Japan eventually got its explosion in cases, and has infected the most people by far.
-1 ( +4 / -5 )
Only one country tried zerocovid despite it being practically impossible to sustain, and now they are changing their strategy because it has not worked for them. How do you suggest a country can effectively zerocovid their way out of a pandemic without ending up with the same infection rates as other countries which had huge waves despite harsh restrictions and high vaccination rates?
0 ( +3 / -3 )
i think they should reinstate closed borders for those with negative vaccine status, bring back pcr tests for those who have had full vaccination but otherwise keep all other restrictions lifted so citizens and residents can get back to a normal, entirely maskless life sooner.
-11 ( +2 / -13 )
It’s an ingenious move of jgov to maintain the vaccine status check for international visitors - not only does it help prevent the logistical headache of unvaccinated foreigners getting seriously ill while in Japan but it also acts as a filter for higher quality tourists, as studies have shown a strong correlation between a positive vaccine status and higher education/socioeconomic status.
-8 ( +4 / -12 )
it statistically helps to prevent severe symptoms so it would reduce the likelihood of an older/at-risk visitor (of which there are many) being a massive liability by getting seriously sick in Japan. They could alternatively require vaccination status only for people of a certain age or at-risk status (they’d have to come up with their own classification system for what combinations of health factors constitutes a vulnerable person, good luck with that) but it would be extremely discriminatory.
-3 ( +6 / -9 )
Not bad at all considering that Japans numbers are partly being late to the party as well as it being a country where the vast majority live/work in dense urban areas using public transportation.
I do think Japan should uphold its vaccination requirement for foreigners well into 2023 or 2024, but there’s no need to introduce any new or old measures as it currently stands… the health system proved its robustness and survived the worst of it already.
China on the other hand is about to get raw-dogged by Covid. They quite predictably have finally seen the light and are moving away from the unsustainable and impossible zero covid approach so soon comes their long overdue explosion of cases.
-3 ( +4 / -7 )
China is screwed, they either keep up this zero-covid policy indefinitely and cause an uproar, or bend to the will of the protesters and see an explosion in overdue and inevitable cases among their completely immune unexposed population.
Even the latest vaccines have a negligible effect on current strains… I just don’t see how they’re getting out of this one without an eventual tsunami of cases after the rest of the world has adjusted more or less back to normal.
2 ( +4 / -2 )
Indeed japan has done everything by the book but its not any worse off than other countries, just going through the same motions on a delayed timescale due to a later outbreak here... unfortunately none of the measures were as effective as hoped (poor vaccine efficacy over time, new mutations, contact infection circumventing masks etc) which caused even the stricter countries to come out in more or less the same shape as the very lax ones. China will also have to go through with this when they inevitably drop the unsustainable zero covid policy (if they ever want to partake in tourism either in or out)
2 ( +4 / -2 )
Were people expecting this to be uniquely special and different from existing seasonal viruses and just magically fizzle out to nothing for no reason? Viruses tend to come in waves. Nothing to fret about, it's here to stay.
12 ( +14 / -2 )
Up 10% from the same day last week and up 30% from the same day two weeks ago.
Likely to see an 8th wave between now and December, though it thankfully shouldn't have anywhere near the impact of the largest 7th wave as in other countries, and won't result in any restrictions either new or backpedaled from earlier in the pandemic. Let's hope all who are at-risk receive their next vaccines promptly.
0 ( +8 / -8 )
Just a week until all the tourists come to give the economy a much needed boost! Lets hope cases continue to fall regardless, if not its still okay and it won't get anywhere near the 1st half of 2022 wave that all developes countries experienced as their 'main' outbreak.
3 ( +5 / -2 )
That is 45% fewer daily cases than the same day a week ago, 50% lower than two weeks ago, 62% lower than three weeks ago and 72% lower than one month ago.
Stable and steady downwards progression in the last couple months, looks like this will soon drop to below where cases were a year ago before sars-cov2 had even barely started to spread yet! I suppose you could call week on week development over a period of months with a repeated weekly pattern - a 'trend'.
3 ( +7 / -4 )
Also for the record, cases in Tokyo today are just 44% higher than this date one year ago and the trajectory has been on a steep decline for months, so it should be just a few weeks now before we are in a better position than one year ago.
2 ( +4 / -2 )