Probable One comments

Posted in: Abe announces lifting of state of emergency for 39 prefectures See in context

Those who were talking about huge spikes in numbers of deaths months ago were clearly. VERY. Wrong!

One only needs to look at the messes most of the rest of the world are in to know they were absolutely correct. By implementing a national emergency that outcome was prevented.

Fortunately people here obeyed the rules and the numbers fell greatly, whereas in the US where people are protesting it (with guns) they are barely going down and lockdown needs to continue.

Now you're not wrong in that the country needs to re-open, Japan won't hit zero cases, it did a good job with contact tracing, and as such there were three months between first case and national emergency, longer than most places. Now public awareness is higher and the country is more prepared; realistically contract tracing should be enough for some time, but the emergency was the right call, cases were spiking, as we can see from the graphs of every country that was later implementing it.

As for your other links about the death rate, other studies have shown there is no widespread outbreak that has been missed; contained cases like the diamond princess are a good indicator of the real mortality rate in ideal circumstances when health care isn't overwhelmed and all cases are caught early (about 1% death rate); but without action that number rises drastically as not everyone can receive the care they need.

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