Rakuraku comments

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JeffLeeToday  07:12 am JST

There's no doubt the civilians were a deliberate target," he said.

That doesn't make sense. The USAAF dropped huge numbers of warning leaflets in Feburary on Tokyo warning civlilians of a destructive attacks, and explaing that they were NOT the targets, and for them to evacuate the cities. In fact, the USAAF dropped the leaflets throughout Japan during the war. No other country did. The Japanese police punished anyone caught reading the warnings. 

"By burning them down, you would kill workers, de-house them. You would destroy small factories scattered around the domestic residential zones. And that this would contribute in some way to undermining the Japanese war economy."

OK, now he's contradicting himself. The objective WAS to destory factories and Japan's industrial capacity. Like all modern revisionists, his argument is riddled with contradictions and falsehoods

It is one thing to be warned it is another to know where to go.

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The_BeagleToday  05:08 pm JST

The decision comes as the central government pushes nuclear power so the country can rely less on fossil fuels to achieve decarbonization goals

Reliable cheap energy that is needed for present day needs and future plans.

Do you know that in 2011, the situation was so critical that the evacuation of Tokyo was considered by Naoto Kan the prime minister at the time. In the worst-case scenarios, not only would evacuation have been necessary, but it would have been impossible to live there for 70 years. Naoto Kan said that such an event could have jeopardized the nation very existence.

MarkXToday  07:40 am JST

As soon as I read the headline, I knew JeffLee would comment on it, and I agree with him totally. How can you publish this story and then expect people to continue to see their real wages drop and spending power fail. All the while with increased tourism getting priced out of your own country. Soon will be offered new contracts for the coming school year and am 100% it will be the same price as they have been paying for the past 10 years!

Numbers given in the article are distorted by the huge profits of very large companies. It would be more useful to have the mean numbers as well.

Very large companies sitting on records profits have actually increased base salaries by 5 % or more each of the last 2 years.

But many small and medium size companies do not make record profits at all. Actually many (especially the very small ones) are hardly surviving. Not much pay increase to be expected from them unfortunately.

WeiWeiToday  05:03 pm JST

0.1% growth with 4-5% rampant inflation means the economy contracted a lot in real terms. This folks is the reason for the ”inflation is good” mantra!!

0.1% in the real growth not nominal growth. Usually communication of economic growth figures,unless specified otherwise, are in real term not nominal terms.

kurisupisuToday  09:09 pm JST

The interest rates are still very low in Japan-it’s a wonder that there is any yen in the country!

i have just placed asu stantial amount of my money in a one year foreign currency bond at 4%.

No returns similar in Japan except for expert stock pickers

Without doing any stock picking you could just by the Nikkei 225 index through an ETF. It returned an annualized 7.5% over the past 10 years and 11% over the past 5 years.

The falling JPY due to very low interest rates has pushed real wages down. As a result, consumption has been declining. Consumption represents 55% of GDP and investment 26%. So, all in all, increasing interest rates to prevent the JPY from weakening further is probably positive for the economy as a whole.

An increase of 1.2 % of sales with an inflation between 2.5 % and 3% (officially but probably higher) means actually a very significant fall in volume. Not good at all.

Geeter MckluskieToday  02:33 pm JST

it will probably not happen within 2 decades but at a 7 to 10 years horizon.

*7 to 10 years is "within the next 2 decades.*

Sorry, I meant to say that it will probably happen within 7 to 10 years. At least, it will be technically feasible, but in practice, governments will try to slow things down since society cannot adapt so quickly to such disruptive technologies.

WTF?

Can someone please untangle this pretzle logic. Thanks

Half of current jobs will have been replaced by AI or mass-automation within the next 2 decades or less.

What does "fewer jobs will beome unnecassary mean" in this context. The fact is fewer workers will BE necessary due to their jobs being rendered obsolete.

it will probably not happen within 2 decades but at a 7 to 10 years horizon. Chat gpt 4 already has an is between, the paying version gpt 4.0 of 130 to 150. The enterprise version 155+. Einstein QI was estimated between 160 and 180.

TaiwanIsNotChinaToday  06:43 am JST

Should be titled "grappling with the consequences of their no immigration policies"

I don’t know where you live, but I can tell you that in Tokyo, immigration is massive. It becomes very obvious when you look at low-paid service-related jobs like convenience stores, restaurants, and hotels—it’s a complete change of landscape compared to 10 years ago.

Seven-Eleven plans to limit the business hours when such one-man operations are allowed from 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. even after the new security system is introduced, the sources said.

That should be the norm for all their outlets, at least between 1:00 and 6:00. What a waste of energy for so few customers!

WeiWeiToday  08:44 am JST

That is partly thanks to government policies to promote attractions from Mount Fuji's majestic slopes to shrines and sushi bars in more far-flung parts of the archipelago.

That is an overstatement of the year so far. I can bet a lot of money on the fact that NONE of this is due to any government tourist promotions

Indeed. Nothing to do with the government, all due to social networks. We live in 2024!

wallaceToday  07:35 am JST

Two young people I know have returned from the US after 3 years at university paid for by their families. Both speak near-perfect English. One of them is returning for a Masters degree next year

Nice, but this costs around 30 million (including accommodation and other expenses). Not everyone can afford it. This is why any help will be welcomed, even if it only covers a fraction of the cost.

@

@garypen

kurisupisu

Still see the sararimen waltzing around in just their **whistle and flutes **looking tuff though…

Is that non-US English slang for "suit and tie", or something similar? I've never heard it before.

I second your question, Whistle and flutes..? Or is that walking and smoking…?

« Whistle and flutes » is cockney (East London) slang for suit.

It is not rare for teachers to work 60 hours per week, which is absolutely crazy, especially considering the pay they receive.

On top of that, they do not benefit from long holidays like in other countries because they are asked to do useless administrative tasks during those breaks. These teachers are saints.

quercetumToday  02:45 pm JST

how abt this country debt?

Japan's fiscal debt is not relevant. 

Japan's 30-year bond yield is now higher than China's.

This is an important and consequential financial development in the world and no one is talking about it.

@JeffLee

This idea that fiscal debt does not matter is incorrect. An ever-expanding fiscal debt poses several risks. One among several others is the loss of the value of money, both externally (already happened with the sharp depreciation of the JPY) and internally through inflation. The fact that inflation has been negligible or moderate over the past 30 years does not guarantee that this will remain the case indefinitely.

Even though these forecasts are absolutely useless these “experts” who make them are very well paid meanwhile essential workers are paid close to the minimum wage.

Not bad but the S&P is up 27 % in USD and 41% in JPY terms!

Surprise, surprise. Soon, we will see usual titles like inflation above the 2% target for 29 months, wages down, real consumption down…etc.

These old models, which the BOJ relies on (basically, the lower the interest rate, the better for the economy), no longer work. If they did, the Japanese economy, after 20 years of near 0% interest rates, would be flourishing.

The problem is that with Abenomics, they pushed things so far that it’s now probably impossible to exit without significant damage. The BOJ is caught between a rock and a hard place.

By the time the target of 60 million visitors is reached, the seafood rice bowls at Tsukiji fish market, which used to cost 1,500 JPY and now cost 4,500 JPY, will likely reach 10,000 JPY!

This place has also transformed into a scene reminiscent of Dante’s Inferno.

Only in Japan…

albaleoToday  05:18 pm JST

Article 13 of the Constitution, which guarantees the right to the pursuit of happiness

I think there's more to it than that. Otherwise I could walk naked round the streets of Japan if it made me happy.

Article 13 also contains the phrase "to the extent that it does not interfere with the public welfare".

In what way do you think same sex marriage interfere with public welfare ?

HopeSpringsEternalToday  01:51 pm JST

More proof the $ and ALL the currencies tied to the dollar are losing their purchasing power due to money printing, growing deficits AND a growing multi polar world NOT interested in toilet paper currencies!

It is not the USD or the currencies tied to the USD (actually the USD index is up 4% over the past 10 years).The Bitcoin is up sharply against all currencies

shogun36Today  07:11 pm JST

budget, reforms on agenda

VERY easy solution. 

Cut ALL Diet member's salary in half off the top. NO exceptions. 

Also eliminate per diem and set a travel budget for every single member. 

That would open up a LOT of funds in the "budget

I looked at the figures. This would save 100 million USD equivalent, which is 0.01% of the Japanese national budget. It may be important from a symbolic point of view, but hardly a game-changer when it comes to improving public finances.

Financing such a massive package requires keeping interest rates very low. This will inevitably lead to further depreciation of the JPY and increased imported inflation.

As a result, whatever people gain from cash handouts and subsidies will likely be more than offset by inflation. This is especially true for low-income earners, who typically consume their entire income. A one-off payment of 30,000 JPY will never compensate for the additional inflation they will face.

This economic policy is absurd.

daito_hakToday  12:01 pm JST

France had more than 100 millions of tourists in 2023. Yet you don’t hear them complaining about what is objectively rare occurrence of bad behavior. 

The reaction of Japanese to mass tourism is grotesque yet again Japan has far less tourists than other countries. They should swallow their arrogance and learn a little bit of humility from those countries

France has had tons of tourists for decades, so they are accustomed to it.

In addition if you Google it you will find that many French people also hate mass tourism. Preferred destinations, such as the south of France, have seen one-third of their accommodations converted into Airbnbs, causing rents for locals to become outrageously high.

« Japan's famous autumn leaf colors contributed to increased tourism demand »

When they refer to autumn leaves I guess it is a reference to the beautiful red maple trees leaves. If such a case why on earth would they come in October when a quick Google search would have tell them it takes place end of November, beginning of December.

WeiWeiToday  05:21 pm JST

Only due to inflation. If adjustedfoe inflation it did not grow at all.

No. When economists talk about growth they refer to real figures (adjusted for inflation) not nominal.

MeiyouwentiToday  07:56 am JST

Hit back when attacked. That’s the normal and healthy reaction of all living creatures, from microbes to humans

Don’t you think it is man’s unique nature to be able to rise above his instincts?

@dagon

I doubt they protested when Abenomics slashed corporate taxes and the effect of corporate welfare on tax revenues

It’s actually the exact opposite. The MOF despised Abenomics. Their obsession has always been a return to fiscal orthodoxy—not to please voters like politicians. However, they had to bow to Abe, as he was very powerful.