@dog Your little Otaku export warehouse in Gunma is hardly going to change the economic face of Japan.
Actually its that sort of "oyaji" type attitude that has been the demise of Japan. The importance of the provincial small to medium sized company for the true well being of the future of Japan can't be emphasized enough. Being in the Japanese dinosaur steel industry has solidified your views along what you continue to criticize..
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GDP per capita figures for Japan has been similiar to such countries as Germany and the UK and income is more evenly distrubuted than the US or UK. If those figures are a measure of a country's success then Japan has not been doing badly in a deflationary economy.
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**Do you really think that the Nikkei is indicative of the health of the Japanese economy?
Not an absolute indicator but It is one aspect (not the day to day moves) looking at the longer term growth expectations of companies. If you want to take that perspective then you may want to be consistent by refraining from ranting about the failure of Abenomics after a bout of selling in the Nikkei or any adverse moves in the dollar yen.
Do tell me what is an indicator of a healthy economy.
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What? This can't be right! The JT doomsdayers keep telling us about the demise of the economy with hyperinflation; that the yen should be toilet paper with JGB yields at astronomical levels. Oh of course, I forgot, the Government is fudging the figures again....
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Shhh...the JT contrarian indicator has been a speculators dream...
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Err yes it does, the article is the messenger as reported by the OECD. Go and look up Huffington Post's report if you want to contest the message...
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The article states the plain and simple conclusion that the OECD has come up with. Why is it so necessary to try so hard to find something to refute the findings? Parochial, selectively biased anecdotes don't provide any convincingly counter arguments to the articles conclusions, they do however, emphatically state the obvious need for those to criticize...
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I have had personal bad dealings with cops globally and all have their bad in their own cultural way. However, to blame Japanese cops on this is ridiculous. Firstly ,the ratio of copper to citizen is very low compared to other countries. Secondly, the number of daily stalker complaints in Japan is horrendous with many not being reported in a timely manner. Thirdly, a lot of them are prevented which , of course, never get the media play that this particular crime has received, after the fact. Finally, many stalker based crimes are not so obviously "morbid" until the crime has been commited which often the media portrays as having been preventable. Unfortunately the stalker based murder statististics will never be zero.
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Japan has had the sword of damocles over its head with threats from international ratings agencies threatening to degrade JGBs from their current S&P rating of AA-. If Abe failed to go through with his promised increase in the sales tax a possible downgrade could create bond interest rates to surge. This would be absolutely catastrophic in a still deflationary economy and when demand is weak. Of course Abe' s advisors are aware that an increase in sales tax could have detrimental effects when the economy has only started to recover. The increase in sales tax to 8% is expected to bring in 8 trillion yen per year. The stimulus package of 5 trillion yen is the estimate to offset the initial detrimental effects of the increase.
A few facts that may be of interest to those who think Japan is an impoverished society.
Postal savings: 224 trillion yen Life Insurance savings: 126 trillion yen Corporate cash holdings: 220 trillion yen
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Posted in: The Rising Sun design is used widely on flags in Japan, such as those used by fishermen and the Maritime Self-Defense Force. The claim that the Rising Sun flag symbolizes militarism does not make sens See in context
The Buddhist Manji symbol is often equated with the Nazi swastika but look very closely. They are not the same. Biased opinions create distorted perceptions..
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With a short sighted view, deflation looks great because prices are falling; inflation is bad because prices are going up. Japan has been mired in serious contraction because of a decade of deflation caused by the aftermath of one of the most spectacular property bubble crashes in history. No other G7 country has had more than two years of deflation. Deflation means companies have to continue to cut prices which in turn means razor thin profit or no profit at all.This, of course, means no wage increases or even wage decreases. Deflation also means cash is king ie hold cash , don't invest , don't risk because cash increases in value in real terms. Interest rates are also in real terms negative. The only people who benefit in a deflationary spiral are those who have the cash already...yes , the old folks of Japan with millions and billions in the Japan postal savings with zero interest rates.
One year ago, including all the JT posters, everyone were raving on about what a hopeless country Japan was with no growth; no competativeness, essentially a "has been" country and they were all correct because of deflation. Now the incumbent Government has made the first and foremost priority to be a fight against deflation in order for Japan to change. Nothing else matters unless deflation is conquered and there will be collateral damage. Japanese companies are sitting on a record amount of cash with very little debt yet they do not want to increase expenses including wages unless they are assured of a positive change in economic fundamentals which all stem from deflation.
People need to stop expecting a rainbow without the storm..."
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The Singapore Government is making it more difficult and expensive to hire foreigners. It is not increasing corporate taxes nor is it increasing taxes to foreign employees. The only "foreign" tax that it has increased is to non-singaporean property buyers. Singapore still has one of the lowest corporate and income tax rates in the world. It also has not had any history of capital controls like Malaysia and is not a communist country like Vietnam. Singapore will remain a financial hub for asia for a very long time. Go and ask Gina Rhinehart and Nathan Tinkler what they think....
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Love to draw up a truth table of Abe's options but lets simplify things. option 1 He sits it out and doesn't increase sales tax. Foreign institutions such as S&P will rant and rave about Japan not taking their debt seriously and downgrade JGBs. Yields surge, debt problem increases. JT experts say I told you so, Abe is a Richard. option2 He increase sales tax and does nothing else. Foreign institutions smile, global funds invest in Nikkei, JGB yields fall further. Average Japanese consumer and small company owners complain that sales get worse and only the rich benefit. JT experts say I told you so only the rich benefit, Abe is a Richard. option 3 As per the article, Abe increases sales tax but also decrease corporate tax. Foreign institutions smile, global funds invest in Nikkei, JGB yields fall, some companies increase bonuses. JT experts say I told you so, I didn't get any pay rise and my mates are suffering and Abe is a Richard.
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There is a common misunderstanding between the trade balance and current account of a country. The current account is basically the net income and Japan is still +577 billion yen which includes the recent -1000 billion yen trade deficit. Note that in comparison, the US has a negative current account. The weaker yen and reliance of fossil fuels has increased the trade deficit.
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Yep, we see a "50 shades of grey".
It's be called colour blindness...
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1936? You must be very old.
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Congratulations to those who, after the heavy sell off on Friday, went long J-stocks and especially Nikkei futures after the non-farm payrolls as well as to Ladbrokes keeping steadfast on the short odds about Tokyo, heavily laying Madrid. Great example that the markets are not always right and can be swayed by BS rumours, a very important lesson. One thing they didn't teach us at Uni is that market efficiency is often equivalent to market gullability...
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The stock price increases market capitalization and does not increase profitability. The profits referred to are EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). You can also look up their sales revenue growth over a three year period. The Government isn't responsible for increased investments, spending and wages, its up to the J- companies which require future economic confidence to do so. J-companies are sitting on a record amount of cash and very little debt but they refuse to part with their stronghold.
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There are over 2000 Japanese companies listed on the 1st board alone of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. For the March 2013 fiscal year 233 of those companies , not including the banks, made record profits. Some examples Wacom, KDDI,Otsuka Holdings, Daikin, Bridgestone. Japan Inc is more than Hitachi, Sony, Sharp and Panasonic.
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Whilst some like to make these boxing title matches about the size of their swinging dicks or their views about Japanese television, if you have a bone to pick about the seriousness of these matches I would suggest you go and have it out with the IBF, WBA and WBO and why they favour the Japanese boxers.
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This is an embarrassment for Japan and the Government is not taking this seriously enough. TEPCO have failed. At the very least, the Japanese Government must take this matter over immediately and see this through to complete resolution. It is a no brainer to understand that the future of Japan in terms of the survival of the people; realistically priced energy; international understanding and dialogue and even the success of Abenomics resides with the immediate resolution of this major catastrophe. The failure of Tokyo to get the 2020 olympics may be the alarm that is required; Japan, this is your wake up call..
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Decreasing corporate tax is not just about the simplistic view of offsetting the increase in sales tax. The negative factors with increasing the sales tax is obvious to everyone including the Government but it needs to be done to appease foreign opinion of Government debt to prevent the degrading of JGB's in the short term and to decrease the reliance on issuing more bonds in the longer term. Although decreasing corporate tax has the benefits of cultivating the corporate environment to increase wages and increase investments, it also stimulates the attraction of investing in Japan by foreign entities. This directly addresses the aging population issue by increasing the foreign population and increasing overall demand. That is exactly how Singapore has addressed their decreasing and ageing population to make it the richest country per capita in the world form a third world country in a very short period of time.
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Japan's problems in both the long and short term are government finances, demographics and manufacturing over production with a limited domestic consumer base.
Demographics is a problem globally. Immigration is a theoretical solution that brings in other problems but it has changed markedly in recent years. Its a very slow "death" but has nothing to do with near term doomsday predictions.
Manufacturing and production issues are Japanese corporate specific issues of competitiveness eg. household electronics and changing business conditions due to emerging market low costs of labour, as you have pointed out. Although Japanese are slow to change survival will bring about change. Japanese are the most productive when they have a gun pointed to their heads.
The main doomsdayer "trump card" is the national debt. It is an issue but your link with hyperinflation and default are wild speculations. Growing Government debt in itself has not been a deterministic factor to hyperinflation in history. Although you say that borrowing within Japan is inconsequential, when there is little foreign exchange involved the Government is essentially moving money from left to right at a cost of the low interest rate involved; money is not destroyed it circulates. From a different angle, a default and Japan hyperinflation would have such catastrophic repercussions through global financial markets the central banks would change the rules of the game. My 15 years of experience in financial markets has taught me one thing, never ever bet on the side of doomsday predictions especially when the fundamental reasons are obvious, the Governments globally will change the rules.
Interesting to note that 10 year JGBs are now 0.75% just after the recent panic scare of plumetting JGB's and surging interest rates.
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Dog, actions taken to change thing in an economy takes time to have an effect. For 7 months in office I think there has been a marked improvement in sentiment which has lead to bonus increases in many industries and improvement in profit levels of companies in the last quarter. As expected. the yen has a lot to do with it but rather than sitting at extremities it has come back to saner levels. Japan is still deflationary and is going to be the hardest woe to shake off and overall wage increase is crucial. To fight the debt in a deflationary environment is a contradiction in itself so one has to get worse in order to control the other.
Your mates in the steel industry is a bad sample space to judge changes in the economy. The Japanese steel industry has specific problems of its own.
So economics is specific to a country? You get your views from foreign publications yet you criticize an advisor who lives in the US.
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Whether you like the guy or not at least Abe is trying to fix the Japanese economy by fighting a serious deflationary spiral that has plagued Japan for a decade, cultivate the environment for wage growth (which is the direct responsibilty of Japanese corporations) and decrease the reliance on issuing bonds to ultimately decrease the Government debt. If this was such an easy thing to do as many here believe by tweaking one dimension of a multi variate economic model, previous Governments could have just Googled the answer or asked one of the "experts" on JT.
Now to all you JT "smart economists" that think you know better just remember that Abenomics is predominantly the "baby" of Abe's direct advisor, Koichi Hamada, a current Yale professor who was a direct student of James Tobin, the Harvard Nobel Memorial prize winner in Economic Science.
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Is it hubris or plain ignorance? The BOJ and economic advisors to the incumbent Government are no dumb f's, many are graduates of top International universities with MBAs or doctrates in their specific fields. What dumb f would target 2 % inflation and expect bond yields to remain at 0.8%?? This is all about economic growth->corporate growth->wages growth->more economic growth->demand pull inflation->taxable income growth->lesser Gov debt. When the economy really starts to grow then the BOJ will increase interest rates. Take a look at what is happening to the US now in terms of interest rates and expectation of growth.
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