rimno comments

I wouldn't get my hopes up just yet.

How about the number of results that came out?

We were told by a few that the test results only come out after 3 to 5 days.

How is it so?

Does that mean, we shouldn't compare the number of tested with number of positives?

I say we should compare the number of test results that came out with number of positives.

That should give us more accurate numbers.

@kyushubill

Yeah let's burn down the economy because 3.6 million out of the world's 6.2 billion people are ill. That is 0.00058%, we need some serious perspective here.

You should really study basic algebra again.

Because 3.6 million out of 6.2 billion is 0.058%.

Not 0.00058%.

That is 6 people in 10,000.

Medical system has already collapsed.

Medical collapse is not just when medical staffs and institutes are down, but also when they can not provide medical services to the people.

People can not get tests.

People can not get treated.

People are denied entrance to hospitals.

The Beds in hospitals are 80 ~ 90% full and the rest is open only to emergencies.

The staff and institutes may be holding out, but only because they gave up providing services to it's public.

In eyes of people using the medical services, medical system is already down.

Ok, I agree about getting back to normal, but and according to the current laws here, what do you expect the authorities to do, without breaking the law?

One way I can think of, would be using their parking lots as testing stations or confining the infected or some such.

Most of them do have large parking spaces and afaik, under the law for SOE, you can use properties belonging to individuals or anyone without their consent for such uses.

Critical stage was three months ago....

Afaik S. Korea didn’t do a total lockdown.

They mass tested people, and quarantined the infected.

That’s all they did.

The difference would be, they started the mass testing in very early stage, and enforced the infected to stay quarantined.

No lockdown needed if you can do testings early and enforce quarantine, but maybe it’s little too late for Japan.

His public support levels, which went plummeting down due to his reaction to corona.

This will of course get backfire from China and S.Korea, and his public support levels will go up.

Typical politician move.

I think it's already been established that Japan isn't testing a lot. The question was whether they have 210,000 tests available and I don't see anything to make me believe they don't.

If they are expecting 210,000 patients, the number of tests should be at least over 1 mil.

Test of that number will never happen in this country.

They are only ramping up the test CAPACITY to 20,000.

If that's used at full, it will still take a couple of months to test that many.

And as they are saying that they don't have the resources to test that much, I expect it will take more than 3 to 4 months.

Something's fishy.

@Ed Rowe

You have to look at the number of tests with the number.

Testing 500 and saying we only have 100 cases and testing 10000 and saying we only have 100 cases shouldn't be considered same.

Think about how many elders actually live by their own in a small apartment.

Does anybody check on them daily? Or even weekly?

How many lone deaths will we find once those rooms start to get investigated.

Two weeks tp show symptoms.

A week to get the tests.

A week to get the results.

The figures are already a month old.

And it’s based on tests done on a fraction of the patients.

Increased tests won’t be too different I guess.

How are the number of tests counted?

Number of test results that came out?

Or number of people tested?

That would make a difference when looking at the positive ratio.

And how the numbers should be calculated.

@Cognac

You seem to think the situation is well contained.

Now give me some figures.

Number of tests.

Number of positive cases.

Number of deaths.

And tell me how they are counted and are changing.

Look at the curve and how the numbers are correlated.

When tests are increasing and cases and deaths are not or are decreasing, that's when you can say the numbers mirror the reality, and that's when you can say the situation is well contained.

@rimno ofcourse yes it would be nice to safely tests everyone (and don't infect them during swabing )? have many samplings ? and finaly quarnatine them ? But is this realistic and the best aproach given unprecedented circumstances ? And would the results of these efforts really make the difference ? I am really not sure ... again still thinking about how easy this virus spreads

If you understand how easy this virus spreads, you should start to think about how this virus may be contained.

Intense testing may not be the best approach given the circumstances, but it seemed to work in other countries.

At least their curve is starting to get smoothed out and seem to be at the peak or maybe even near.

In Japan, you can't tell if it's at the peak or if the curve is smoothing or exponentially increasing, because the number of tests are so low that it can not correctly represent the increase curve.

oh and @rimno one other question if you don't mind ... when do you stop this testing ? .. think about it; S.Korea and China are now fighting imported cases .. (so that is japan in January) . Can you also test the whole of India and Africa ... I don't know man .. it is just feels like barking on the wrong tree

You don't stop the testing for diseases like this.

Think of cancer, flu, any other disease that may kill someone or is infectious.

Tests are being done yearly.

You just find a safe way to test them and to treat them.

You really have to look at the curve as well. Not just the numbers.

Also try searching for number of tests, then look at the increase in cases and deaths.

As the number of tests increase, number of cases increase with it.

BECAUSE THE NUMBER OF TESTS ARE NOT ENOUGH, AND THERE ARE MANY INFECTED PEOPLE RUNNING WITHOUT BEING TESTED.

Gosh...

You can only say the number of tests are enough when the number of cases does not increase with the number of tests.

That's when you are getting, at least, near the actual increase in number of infected.

@n1k1

Intense testing is to know the right number.

AND TO KNOW WHO HAS THE VIRUS EVEN IF THEY DON'T SHOW ANY SYMPTOMS AND QUARANTINE THEM.

BECAUSE THEY CAN STILL SPREAD THE VIRUS AND INCREASE THE PATIENTS WITH SERIOUS SYMPTOMS.

WHICH WILL MOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO MEDICAL BREAKDOWN.

I don't get why people think more testing will lead to medical breakdown.

Testings can be done outside of the hospitals, on people who thinks they may have the virus, by dedicated crews who doesn't look at normal patients.

More tests can identify the patients with mild or no symptoms.

You can tell a person to quit cigarettes because it can cause cancer and can harm others around you as many times as you’d like and see the person still chain smoking at homes.

You can tell a person that the person or a family member has lung cancer and smoking will kill the person, you will see the person quit smoking or at least try.

That is how you stop the spread of epidemics.

That you have the disease and it might kill you or your loved ones or anybody you meet in person.

Not just telling people to stay home because you might or not have the disease and can spread to people you meet.

Also the number of deaths not rising is just an illusion.

The death count is just number of deaths among patients confirmed infected.

So with less tests for corona, you get less number of deaths due to corona.

Convenient.

Remember what Abe said last week?

”If the infection spreads at this rate, we will have over 100,000 infected in a week and 800,000 in a month.

Oh...

The oracle....

So the number will increase to 800,000 in early May.

Probably after GW holidays so they can blame the people who went out during the time.

I say the current number of infected is just bs and they are putting out the number as they fit...

So here’s the thong.

They say it takes about five to six days to get the results for pcr tests.

And you need to show symptoms for at least four days to get the test.

And it takes about two weeks for someone infected to actually show symptoms.

That adds up to 24 days at least, meaning the number of infected being reported everyday are actually the people who got infected more than three weeks ago.

And the government is taking measures based on those test results.

Meaning all of their measures are at least three weeks too late.

Worthless.

Question.

Do they even pay taxes?

I doubt it.

And threshold will come as soon as they ramp up the number of tests.

Stupid.

They are saying the threshold for declaring emergency is when the number of positive from the tests increase rapidly.

So it will never come as long as they keep the number of tests as low as they have it now.

@Velious

Wrong.

We don't know if there is a crisis or not.

Is the right answer.

If they don't test, there is no way they or we can know if there is a crisis or not.

And people are not flooding the hospitals because if they don't meet the criteria (which is absurdly strict), they are just told to stay home.

We don't know how many of the infected are among us, we don't know how many of the people being treated for pneumonia have corona, we don't know how many are dying because of corona.

All this because they are restricting the tests.

The first thing on the list of things to do when dealing with infectious virus should be to contain it's spread, as it will increase the number of people who needs caring by medical staff, thus causing the collapse of health care.

Healing the infected, especially if there is no vaccine or cure, should be the second on the list.

Also, if the death ratio of corona virus was 2 to 3% in Japan, even if the infected number goes up to 100,000, the death count will be 2 to 3 thousands spread through out recent months.

Divide that with 90 days for Jan to March, and that would be 30 to 50 deaths per day, or at the most 100 per day.

Of course the numbers will be passed as a noise or error and not be considered as a significant.

It is only when it starts to rise people will notice the difference.

Also, about that bs about people related to bars and clubs taking up 30% of the infected, that's what happens if you only test those people who came in to close contact with the infected.

If the first infected was found in a club or a bar, you are bound to test those related to clubs and bars more than those who aren't.

Then you will find more infected among the people who are in some way related to those industries.

The sample would be so biased that I wouldn't use it for any kind of analysis.

By the way, the reason death count from corona is so low in Japan is because they only count the deaths of people who were already tested and was found positive.

The ministry recently changed how they are showing the tables, but looking at the tables from a few days ago, you can see that the above is how they are counting the deaths from corona virus.

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_10521.html

Also, according to the definition of overshoot by the “experts”, it will never come because they won’t ramp up the number of testings done everyday.

Remember.

On weekends and some other days, the number of infected found will go down drastically, because the hospitals doing the tests are not open.

Don’t worry.

Healthcare won’t collapse as long as you keep the testing numbers so low.

wtf am I even saying.

While number is going up, ratio seem to be moving down.

However the number of tests is still around 300 I believe.

We will have to look at more test results to really even get a glimpse of the situation.

You will shoo away Abe!!

Stop calling it a s-korean model!