Robroy comments

PS I've said my piece and I rest my case.

@GBR48 "... The green transition has to be politically blind, without artificial geopolitical restrictions. Or it won't happen."

Then it won't happen because those restrictions will not be removed. How could they?

Backsliding on the green agenda is already happening. The human race is in disarray and in a race to the bottom.

That's what I'd call Mutually Assured Destruction!!

... @TaiwanIsNotChina Your last reply above is one-sided. You speak as if the only destruction will be in Russia & China.

Not so, Europe will be blown away as will Japan, Korea & Taiwan.

And as for the USA (which to the best of my knowledge also has a preemptive first strike policy) would not escape major destruction of its major cities and infrastructure.

In the aftermath who would come out worse is unclear but the USA has more to lose than either Russia & China.

@Strangerland What there is to understand about Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is that it is just an idea.

Who can say for sure that some country's leadership will not call the MAD bluff?

After all Mao said - the atomic bomb is a paper tiger. And Putin's Russia already threatened to use nuclear weapons if any Russian territory is in danger of being taken

Trouble is - these days America wants others to do their kicking for them. Take Ukraine as a prime example.

The arbitrary attack on Iraq with the coalition of the willing was the last hurrah as far as American feats of arms was concerned.

Who is the sole great power rival to America in Eurasia? Russia!

Who is the sole great power rival to America in East Asia? China!

America is the sole great power in the Americas - but it is not the whole.

However, the Monroe Doctrine allows no interference in the Americas while America allows itself to interfere anywhere in the world it likes.

And because of that little things have already started in the S. & E. China Seas. With much bigger things well underway in Ukraine.

The American response in those two theatres has been weak thus far and will continue to be so because America has more to lose in a nuclear war than Russia & China.

Xi, in his own way, wants to get back that which he believes belongs historically to China.

Just as Putin, in his own way, wants to get back that which he believes belongs historically to Russia.

The question is - what will be the American way of meeting these two pushbacks??

Yellen's visit to China is not an attempt to answer the America v. China question except in a strictly limited fashion.

And the America v. Russia question is already beyond mutual discussion at present.

The strange thing is - a Trump second coming could make peace with Russia a possibility, but at Ukraine's expense.

While it could make both a trade war and a subsequent military confrontation with China more likely.

Either way we are now in the geopolitical scenario of Orwell's 1984 - Oceania (America) v. Eurasia (Russia) & East Asia (China).

The biggest of which was Nixon going to Beijing and paving the way for Deng Xiaoping to transform China into a firecat.

"September of 1954, the United States, France, Great Britain, New Zealand, Australia, the Philippines, Thailand and Pakistan formed the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, or SEATO. The purpose of the organization was to prevent communism from gaining ground in the region...

When the Vietnam War ended in 1975, the most prominent reason for SEATO’s existence disappeared. As a result, SEATO formally disbanded in 1977."

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/seato

... Its twenty-year mission: to explore strange new worlds... to boldly show what no one has seen before!

And, it's not as if Edwin Oldfather Reischauer was a "native of Japan"

Even though he was born in Tokyo in 1910 he was an American.

As for the rest of the above article - Roles of 'U.S. Japan Hands' in flux - it seems just as hazy as the claim about E.O. Reischauer's origins.

For a clearer and more complete view of the current geopolitical state of the world one can think in terms of the following -

The US and it's European & Asian allies would like to keep in place the world order that has existed since the end of WWII & the subsequent Korean War.

That means US first with Russia(USSR) and now China(PRC) vying for second/third as world powers. (No other countries come close to vying for the gold, silver & bronze positions.)

Contemporary Russia, under Putin, and China, under Shi, have decided to challenge the existing 'unipolar' world order. Wishing to have a tripolar one with the US pushed back out of Europe and E. Asia into the Americas (with influence over only the halves of the Atlantic & Pacific Oceans closest to US shores).

The last time such a challenge existed was when Germany, in Europe, and Japan, in Asia asserted themselves in the period 1930-1945.

Russia is the new Germany and China the new Japan as far as the US and it's preferred world order goes.

Of course, the contemporary great powers have to be more circumspect than those of the 1930s & early 1940s due to the great advances in weapons and other technologies since WWII.

However, basically, the Great Game still goes on - between those three great contemporary powers - bigger, better and more all-encompassing than ever before.

Other countries only play supporting bit parts or sit on the sidelines.

... look what happened in Afghanistan after negotiations between the Taliban and the US. Nobody negotiates honestly. Actions are what matter.

Your points JoshK are all debating ones fit only for a legal argument that attempts to exonerate moderm Russia

@Robroy

I'm not really seeing your point. Countries and empires lose territory all the time. The Roman Empire, Mongol Empire, European colonization, Germany post-WW1, California and Texas, etc. Why should Japan's loss be viewed differently? If you're advocating for a return of all Kuril islands, then should Germany reclaim Poland, Austria, Czechoslovakia and parts of eastern France?

@JoshK

No, no, no, none of the above.

My point is nothing any good is going to happen by negotiation

By the way, in case you think what I posted above is also "completely irrelevant to this situation" -- it is not. The reason why Japan will not be getting the islands in question back from Russia is because we live in a world in which might is right.

And, gone are the days when you could buy territory as the United States did when it acquired Louisiana from Napoleon I or Alaska from Alexander II. These days such tracts of land are priceless and strategic islands are not for sale to any potential adversary.

@JoshK

You miss the point - empires sign away their rights to territory in unequal peace treaties dictated by their victorious enemies.

As I explained, above, the way to reverse the terms of the treaty is to go, or threaten to go, another round of military conflict when confident of winning it or actually winning it.

Do not be surprised if one day in the future China redraws it's border with Russia after it becomes strong enough to dictate terms.

The question is - can China succeed in redrawing first its maritime borders with the USA and it's allies? Starting with the successful implementation of the "Nine-Dash-Line", in the S. China Sea, followed by the re-acquisition of Taiwan and the demilitarisation of the Korean peninsula??

This may all take centuries to achieve but China has the longest unbroken civilisation in history and more than 5-year plans.

No use negotiating territorial disputes with Russia, America or China - since the Russians began to expand our of Eastern Europe across the Ural mountains into Asia in about 1500 they have hardly looked back unless opposed militarily.

By the year 1651 they established a fort on the Amur river -

Albazino is a village in Skovorodinsky District of Amur Oblast, Russia, noted as the site of Albazin, the first Russian settlement on the Amur River. Before the arrival of Russians, Albazino belonged to the Daur people, the Mongolic peoples indigenous to this area. (Wikipedia)

After a siege - by Chinese forces of the Qing dynasty - Albazino was abandoned by the Russians under the Treaty of Nerchinsk in 1689...

By threatening war with the Qing dynasty during the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) Russia managed to reverse the above setback...

Following the Treaty of Aigun in 1858 the Russians re-established Albazino and established much of the modern border between Russia and China.

Much as the United States conquered the South and West of N. America so, at about the same time and pace, Russia conquered Central and N. Asia.

As George Orwell predicted in 1948 we now have three contending world powers - USA (Oceania), Russia (Eurasia) and China (East Asia).

"War is peace.

Freedom is slavery.

Ignorance is strength."

George Orwell, 1984

@Lord Dartmouth: there's a need to untwist your words. At least you are talking straighter now. The long history of imperialism & colonialism continues today in a less widespread and prominent manner than in the previous five centuries.

Japan and Germany were defeated in 1945 after their late entry into the 19th century scramble for empire and colonies.

The USA, Russia & China were the victors in 1945 (contrary to popular belief the British and other European empires were not victors - they were losers on the winning side).

So, the big three continue the Great Game of world domination each in their own fashion - at present the Russian fashion is old-fashioned naked aggression.

@Lord Darmouth

For someone who "didn't 'forget' to mention it" you seem to be in need of constant reminders - "About 1.5 million Japanese in Manchuria, Korea and northern China became prisoners of the Soviets, many of whom spent years in prison camps." The defending Kwantung Army consisted of about half that number.

Have you any tears for those noncombatants who were imprisoned (you used the word 'internment') for years and subject to the same kind of brutal inhuman treatment meted out to prisoners in Soviet Siberian gulags?

The behaviour of Soviet troops towards civilians in Germany and in Manchuria in 1945 was criminal. The behaviour of Russian troops in the Ukraine in 2022 is the same.

Lord Dartmouth, above -

"... The media has whipped up the old hatred against Russia, which seems to be largely based on:

1) The seizure of the Southern Kuriles in 1945 in which about 1000 Japanese troops and about 2000 Soviet were killed/wounded.

2) The internment of many Japanese POWs in Siberia after the war...."

Lord D forgot to mention the following background -

"Stalin brought forward the invasion of Manchuria due to the dropping of the atomic bomb. On 8 August the Soviet Union entered the war against Japan at midnight. Soviet forces invaded the Japanese puppet state of Manchukuo (Manchuria) under the command of Marshal Aleksandr Vasilevsky with 1.6 million soldiers. They achieved complete surprise, outgunning and outflanking the defending Japanese Kwantung Army of 713,000 troops, commanded by General Otozo Yamada. The advancing Soviets claimed to have killed 84,000 Japanese soldiers and captured almost 600,000. About 1.5 million Japanese in Manchuria, Korea and northern China became prisoners of the Soviets, many of whom spent years in prison camps." (Imperial War Museums)

https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/the-proposed-invasion-of-japan

NB - in the above post "There's completion among... " Should be There's competition...

"According to the Immigration Services Agency of Japan, the largest number of refugees, at 32, came from Myanmar, followed by China, with 18 refugees coming, Afghanistan, with nine, Iran four, Yemen three, Uganda and Cameroon two each, and Iraq, Ghana, Pakistan and South Sudan one each."

Of course this is tokenism.

There's completion among the world's rich countries to see who can gain the most politically correct credit from admitting refugees and "asylum seekers".

Merkel's actions in Germany on that subject were an example of the leader of a nation gaining popularity at home and abroad with those who agree with her actions (and never mind those who didn't).

The whole thing was quite remarkable - a country that had nothing much to do with Syria and Iraq, historically, took in people who owed their predicament more to the Americans, British and French than to the Germans.

There was the old German-Turkish link to consider - as has been pointed out above - the Turks were hosting many of the refugees who were to end up being invited into Germany.

Also, there was already a long established immigration policy in Germany of allowing in Turkish "guest workers" - a million, or more of them over time.

Where does that kind of example leave Japan and it's leaders? Unable to respond in exactly the same way, I'd say.

The factors which made Germany able to respond in that way do not exist in Japan to a great enough degree to make such a magnificent gesture possible.

And, I am sorry to add, all such things are only a gestures. The majority of ordinary people in countries that emit high numbers of refugees and "asylum seekers" do not have the wherewithal to become the kind of people seeking entry into the rich countries.

They mainly have to stay put and put up with all the hardships in their benighted countries that those with enough money and connections can seek to escape from.

The Ukraine situation is a special case - there's lots of competition in Europe to help the refugees and most Ukrainian refugees hope to return home, if possible, in the not too distant future.

There,'s probably not much point in a large number of such people relocating to such a different environment as exists in Japan.

On the other hand, Chinese and Southeast Asians - such as the Burmese, Vietnamese, Indonesians, Filipinos, etc. - may feel more able to live and work in Japan, as the Turks do in Germany.

Perhaps you could have phrased your post along the following lines -

A past in which the servants of Empire both civilian and military, took oaths to do their duty only to find they'd been put in impossible positions by those above them.

Perhaps we should all look to the future while not forgetting the past.

Who can fathom the mysteries of moderation?

Thank you for that timely reminder, socrateos.

As you may know the United Kingdom does not have a written constitution (Aristoteles wrote about the constitution of Athens and other ancient Greek states)) of the kind Japan now possesses.

I am not sure where that leaves us.

Nor am I sure where that leaves the people of the United Kingdom.

I do believe that the sovereign power in the UK resides in the "Crown in Parliament".

The only time the people of the United Kingdom are said to have something like sovereignty is when they fleetingly cast their votes in a General Election.

One might ask -

What is the difference between an empire and a kingdom? (Besides the fact that one is headed by an emperor/empress while the other is headed by a king/queen.)

The following link is to an article about the exhibition and contains a couple of pictures plus a description of some of the works of art -

https://www.msn.com/en-GB/news/spotlight/art-of-diplomacy--years-of-japanese-art-in-britains-royal-collection/ar-AAVXhR3?ocid=sapphireappshare

The 'sad' thing about it all is NZ allowing dangerous individuals into the country.

Also a little 'sad' is the standard of English -

"... The whole gambit of what would otherwise be described as intrusive activity," he (NZ Minister Andrew Little) told the New Zealand Herald.

The correct word to use in the quoted sentence is 'gamut' not gambit.

The gamut of "intrusive activity" he has authorised is a political 'gambit".

I don't agree,Aly. Japan is a bigger player in the trade world than the Australia, Canada and New Zealand combined. And, if Japan wants UK armed forces support in its region then it should think carefully about its strategic position.

http://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/02/national-measles-warning-five-fold-rise-cases-england/&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwj87fC5vcndAhWys4sKHW51BoQQFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw0nTOIQ22b14CNhHZoDTUOt

High temperatures plus high humidity lead to higher death rates.

The human body needs to sweat in order to dissipate heat.

If not body temperature will rise and when it is above 40C (105F) brain and cardiovascular functions will change for the worse with danger of death if the body temperature is not reduced to normal levels.

A study just concluded by MIT predicts that the North China Plain - the most populous region on Earth and former cradle of humanity - may eventually become uninhabitable in the future due to sustained heatwaves. With humans only able to survive the conditions for 6 hours, even in the shade.

As for those who think the old are "useless mouths to feed" it is not the current generation of old people who are the problem. They mostly lived fairly modest, even frugal, lives and continue to do so.

Those who have consumed at higher levels in the world in recent times, and will do so in the future, are the drivers of the destruction and death of the planet they infest. (Time to rehash Soylent Green, anybody?)

What is the world coming to?

No sweat... a hot and sticky dead end!!

"They are not Japanese, plain and simple. Russia can GIVE them, but there is no 'back', unless you want to argue Russia 'took them BACK', since Japan had previously taken them to begin with. Russia can do as it pleases with their islands, and them's the breaks."

The original internationally recognised "break" was as follows -

The first official agreement between Japan and Russia regarding the islands was the1855 Treaty of Shimoda and it defined the border between Russia and Japan to be the strait between two of the Kurile Islands - Etorofu (Iuturup) and Uruppu (Urup).

Therefore that initial treaty between Japan and Russia clearly recognised the islands of Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan and Habomai as part of Japan (and the rest of the Kurile archipelago, as Russian).

Therefore "give them back" is a totally appropriate slogan since the Russians agreed from the outset of diplomatic relations with Japan that the "disputed" islands were Japanese.

There can be no dispute about that.

In 1945, after repeated urging to do so by the USA and Great Britain, the USSR abrogated a 5-year neutrality pact that it signed with Japan in 1941.

[That pact had allowed Stalin to move, in December 1941, about 400,000 troops, 5,000 artillery pieces and 3,300 tanks" (cited from the Soviet's own figures) from Siberia to just in front of Moscow - where the Germans were hammering at the gates.]

After abrogating the neutrality pact, the USSR declared war on Japan on 8th Aug. 1945 (2 days after the Hiroshima atomic bomb) and proceeded to invade Japanese held Manchuria, Korea, Inner Mongolia, the southern half of Sakhalin island, and the Kuriles.

[The behaviour of Soviet forces at the end of WWII in Asia and Europe was as almost as bad as that of the Japanese and Germans in the beginning.]

A pity that when in 1987 US President Regan uttered the words, "Mr. Gorbachev tear down this wall." he didn't add, "And, give back those islands."

[Japan would do well to start considering giving Hokkaido back to the Ainu the day Russia returns Siberia to its indigenous inhabitants.]

Correction to the above leading quote -

"Possession is nine-tenths of the law."