Saito comments

Posted in: Tokyo reports 508 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,831 See in context

People I said it before I will say it now. Track the number of ( tragic) deaths ! Simple maths - 93 equates to circa 10,000 cases. Tests numbers are highly variable - sadly deaths don’t lie.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 1,010 new coronavirus cases; record high 712 in Hokkaido See in context

93 deaths = 11000 actual cases min. No surprise closing in on 2 weeks since Golden week. Tragically more to come.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 925 new coronavirus cases; record 578 in Aichi See in context

109 deaths = min 11000 actual cases actual 10days - 20 days ago. Reliable maths based on global clinical experiences. Worse to come from here given golden week I fear.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 1,121 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally tops 7,000 See in context

“The number of coronavirus-related deaths reported nationwide was 85”.

This is the only reliable government number as a minimum. the death rate has quadrupled in the past month - at this level it suggests the real rate of infections are nearer 10,000 to sadly give this fatality level. The virus doesn’t care whether or how many we test or trace - but once infected around 1% will unfortunately succumb. Despite emergency measures ( lol) the golden week surge is in full flight. For most people the virus is mild and an inconvenience- unless you are the 1%.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Posted in: Osaka reports more new coronavirus cases than Tokyo; nationwide tally 1,785 See in context

I have been following the Japan #s for the past year and the banter around it. The one constant you cannot dispute ( as a minimum) is the daily death rate. While sadly the actual number may be higher the reported number can easily be extrapolated given the global death rate is around 1-1.5%. of infections. Test or don’t test that ratio holds true ( as a minimum) Which means no matter the reported cases Japan is running at minimum of around 3000 -4500 actual Covid infections daily to sadly have a daily death rate of 30-40. Given the size of population and compared to the US and Europe this is actually better than might be expected. But absent vaccination don’t be fooled by the highly variable daily reported tests and cases.

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