There is no way that Japan can compete against China at this point. Not just China, India is already far superior than Japan in digital technologies, while ASEAN nations are quickly catching up to defeat Japan.
Decades of oyaji bureaucracy ruined Japan permanently. Even an esteemed professor said Japan will become a developing nation soon as it lost the technological races.
-1 ( +0 / -1 )
Bye, the dream of being a world’s financial hub.
26 ( +33 / -7 )
Biden will likely sell this out to China in exchange for the foreign freedom to acquire financial businesses in China, Taiwan’s independence and peace in the South China Sea.
China only needs a way to the open seas. Selling out the Senkaku islands will be the first step, so China can begin to acquire Ishigaki island chains as well. The USA has a habit of betraying its ally when it outlives usefulness for Americans. South Vietnam is the best example of such as the USA allowed China to take over Paracel Islands.
2 ( +7 / -5 )
China: It is a free real estate!
The West: It is mine now!
0 ( +0 / -0 )
Japan's exports rose for the first time in two years in December, driven by shipments to China, government data showed, offering a glimmer of hope for policymakers counting on an export-led recovery amid a resurgence of the coronavirus.
If it was not for China, Japanese exporters would have die long ago. Every year, China subsidized a trade deficit with Japan, so the CCP can keep pro-China LDP cronies in power.
With pro-US Taro Kono coming into power, the honeymoon with China may soon end.
Exports to Asia, which accounts for more than half of Japanese shipments, advanced 6.1%, while shipments to the European Union decline 1.6%.
Aside China, Vietnam also subsidized their own deficit with Japan for the same reason as China does.
This is why now Japan prioritizes Vietnamese workers and emigrants to Japan. Of course, Japan recently signed an agreement with Vietnam on the transfer of technologies.
4 ( +5 / -1 )
No Chinese tourists = Bankruptcy
0 ( +2 / -2 )
Biden or not, Japan will probably have to pay more for hosting American military bases.
6 ( +9 / -3 )
i would be the richest man in Japan if every dumb word from Aso gives me a dollar.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
Keidanren has been the puppet child of Western capitalists and concubine of Chinese/Vietnamese Communists since the 1990s.
They advocated for disastrous reforms that neoliberalized Japan into a hellish landscape that appeases Western shareholders. Additionally, they obeyed the Western masters to successfully de-industrialize Japan for the sake of building cheap workshops in China and Vietnam.
The Keidanren businesses received massive bribes from China and Vietnam, so the human rights issues won’t ever get conjured in the West. Keidanren actively enabled the cloaking of these issues in China and Vietnam, and we recently know them because European NGOs fought hard to get the truth out. The Xinjiang genocide has been going on for years, and the Keidanren played a role of facilitating the gospel of economic growth in China to cloak the genocidal truth.
Now, they actively go against better wages for Japanese people. I am not surprised because the “Great Evacuation” is almost complete where all big, productive Japanese businesses will evacuate to China and the SEA. Leaving Japan into a desolate, poor place - exactly the same thing in the American Rust Belt. The Western elites can finally establish another “London” in Japan to launder corporate stock profits at will but solely focusing in Asia.
8 ( +9 / -1 )
A divided East Asia is a big win for China-Russia and the American military-industrial complex.
Japanese LDP cronies, Nihonjinron believers, and Japanese ultranationalists are too foolish to see that.
-15 ( +4 / -19 )
I have to remind you that the whole China debt-trap diplomacy and BRI imperialism are propaganda from an Indian think-tank who is close to the BJP. Narendra Modi pushed this myth because his party intended to ignite a conflict with China in the Himalayas to spite Pakistan.
0 ( +1 / -1 )
A big part of the problem is when the government picks winners and losers through its policies, egged on by big corporations and lobby groups that "influence" their decisions. That's not capitalism or a market economy, but corporatism/corporate socialism, and is a problem that extends way beyond Japan, of course. Many of these businesses would have gone bankrupt if the virus had not come along because they're poorly managed and/or don't produce what the market wants for a competitive price. By bailing out these zombie companies, the government is clumsily diverting resources to places in the market where they aren't efficiently used. And that's money that could have gone to healthcare or not collected as tax in the first place, thereby staying in the economy and flowing to more efficient use of goods, resources and services.
The other side of the coin is that government policy of urging everyone to stay home (instead of just paying those who are legitimately most vulnerable to stay home until they can get a jab), since they can't legally mandate it, is keeping people who aren't vulnerable to this virus from participating to a normal extent in the economy and forcing businesses that rely on physical traffic from going about their business. Pitiful handouts aren't going to replace the lost business that government policy is causing. All the government is doing is preventing viable businesses from functioning and throwing back a handful of peanuts as pretend compensation.
I think a good compromise under the circumstances would be for the government to lift this SoE, and divert the money spent to healthcare and support for people most vulnerable to the virus, and let people who are not vulnerable - the vast majority - get back to normal. People will die, sadly, because most of the people who have succumbed to SARS-CoV-2 were very old and/or had medical conditions that seriously compromised their immune systems. But focused protection will help to minimise this to the extent realistic while removing support for the zombies in a phased manner and allowing profitable businesses to get back into action, with the social benefits that flow from this.
0 ( +1 / -1 )
I suspect the Biden administration will pull their military out of Korea as an ally if they keep bullying the US best friend, Japan.
I suspect Biden will cede Senkakku islands for China in exchange for Vietnamese peace in ASEAN (South China Sea issues), independence of Taiwan, and peace on the Korean peninsula.
China only needed access to the high seas for the dream of a naval superpower. The US will be probably content with that in exchange for free access into Chinese financial markets.
It's absolute extortion in disguise. What South Korean president Moon asking is a shot in the moon.
No. I call this is a political litmus test of Japanese strength, spearheaded by China. Both SK and China want to see if Japan has any retaliating power over the issues, and the USA is willing to intervene.
Apparently not, Japan didn't hurt SK much over the small trade war, and the USA remains largely silent.
So South Korea gets to decide that Japan needs to pay whatever money they want them to pay. And if they don't pay, SK gets seize Japanese assets and that's totally fair in their books. But dare Japan take Korea out of their white list for privileged business clients and "OMG, how dare them (JP) be so unjust and unfair. Proof that they hate us to the core. Let's boycott everything Japan coz after all, we're only victims."
I would not be happy if I were you on this.
China clearly tries to pull South Korea into its orbit. If the West loses SK into a unified Korean peninsula that is pro-China and pro-Russia, then Japan will be very miserable for a long time. The Dokdo crisis will only get worse when a unified Korea will start pirate-like activities across the seas around Japan in the same way that both China and Vietnam are doing in the SCS against Southeast Asian neighbors.
5 ( +8 / -3 )
President Moon's conflict with Japan is merely a test that China pushed him to conduct it. The CCP wants to see if Japan truly has soft or hard power. The result is disappointing as Japan has neither.
South Korea freely seized Japanese assets with no impunity. South Korea won the political and cultural war against Japan by persuading most of the world that Japan deserved it - Berlin bowed down to Seoul instead of Tokyo at the comfort woman statue. Last but not least, Japan lost the pride war (the small trade war against SK) where South Korea still emerged unscathed from the trade spat as Japanese businesses refused to cooperate with the government as well as there is Chinese assistance behind Koreans.
The lesson from this South Korean fiasco is that China found out Japan can be easily disabled without waging a war. Most of the Japanese performing assets are in China, and the CCP can weaponize them through seizures which can almost collapse the Japanese economy. This is a test that CCP masterminded, and I admitted that China is quite genius.
9 ( +13 / -4 )
A recipe for a coming castastrophe.
14 ( +32 / -18 )
As per usual.
"Countries With The Most External Debt 2019"
"Here is the list of countries that owe the most to foreign creditors in 2019. The United States leads, followed by the Euro area and the United Kingdom."
If there are the biggest dumbasses in the world, there Donald Trump and Peeping_Tom.
This guy suffers so bad from schizophrenia that he can't differentiate the topic and his argument.
Totally irrelevant to what I am saying. If Japan employs this type of person around to defend Nihonjinron, the country is really doomed.
0 ( +2 / -2 )
After seeing the Tokyo stock exchange outage, I definitely worry for all Western nations in the age of cyberwarfare. The Solarwinds crisis proved that the West is losing the cyberwar against the authoritarian league. The new development in New Zealand is one more front that the West loses.
Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Vietnam, Turkey,... are winning against the West.
4 ( +5 / -1 )
World university rankings show Japan has a poor ranking...
There are only two Japanese universities on the list, while China has multiple of them.
Not just poor ranking, it is simply a non-existent ranking for almost all Japanese colleges.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
WHERE DOES THIS MONEY COME FROM?
American banks and other Western financial institutions.
Developing nations can't borrow from big banks in the West, so they go to Japan who will actively use its outstanding credits to borrow for those nations.
2 ( +2 / -0 )
Japan is still relevant today because there are things.
American outpost to project military, economic, political influences into Asia.
Middle person for developing nations to get easy loans from international financial and banking institutionsSpecial privileged access to the Western high-end supply chains (chipmaking to industrial robotics)
I think Japan will probably bet on keeping the first (American outpost), while the other two aspects are gradually losing to Japan.
2 ( +2 / -0 )
Not all countries in the world have the possibility to endless print strong money which YEN is still is. For that money regular people, the government officials can buy anything overseas in Myanmar, Vietnam, India etc.
Because Japan is still being backed by strong export manufacturing. People still believe in Japanese industries which are now pretty much owned by the West anyway. Kioxia and Toshiba all have their facilities taken over by Westerners. This is the only thing to make Yen strong but it is also a huge weakness for the current state of the Japanese economy. An appreciated currency is terrible for an export economy.
Additionally, there is also the help from the Americans where they still grant Japan privilege access to core technological supply chains as well as high-end industrial markets. Japan's last source of profitable trade surplus is through machinery exports (thanks to American supply chains) where they use this surplus to buy more American assets. This effect also empowered the Yen more.
I know a lot of galactic minds here keep claiming that Japan does not rely on outside economic helps. It is all domestic-based! Yes. Why does the quality of life keep getting worse every year? There is no one in the world better off if they solely rely on the domestic economy unless they think North Korean.
Everyone wins in free trade. Someone loses in free trade when one does not sufficiently prepare - having good monetary policies and a productive economy, both must work at the same time.
Vietnam coal power plant receives a loan from Japan;
Phillippines receives a loan for calamity response;
Mauritius got loan from Japan;
and many many more....
This is a small fact that many people do not know. Those loans are actually re-financed by American money. It is not really Japanese money rather than Japan uses its outstanding national credit to borrow from American banks to finance those loans. Many of these developing nations do not have AAA ratings to gain high level of loans from international finance institutions and banks. Japan has been playing the middle man for developing countries in decades now.
China and Vietnam are probably the most successful stories where both nations utilized the name of Japan to gain insane access to international credits and loans.
With that being said those loans need to be repaid.
South Korea proved it wrong - I personally think China urged Moon to do it, so they can test Japanese hard and soft power. The fiasco in the Korean comfort women affair demonstrated that Japan does not have either soft or hard power. Korean government seized Japanese assets with no issue, and the sanctions of chemicals against South Korea do not seem to do much.
Imagine if China or the US does it, Japan will gravel in fear.
Even if YEN collapses and the monetary system will go down still you have a nice balance sheet as liabilities will remain.
No currency collapse will affect the world unless it is the USD. Yen lives because it is backed by financed trade surpluses to buy American assets/bonds/IOUs.
I think a "default" would be done by the Ministry of Finance, if it is their ridiculous debts that is in question.
Debt monetization means that all debts are transferred from governments to central banks. Japan is no longer in the 1990s as the Bank of Japan is now entirely independent (with suspicious Western influence and control, filled with Wall Streets puppets).
If Japan ever defaults, The Bank of Japan will do it. I assume if 235% (all) of Japanese debts, in government and private, are all transferred to the central bank.
Trump just showed all of us how fragile their society really is. Asia will be the engine of world growth when this pandemic ends for many years to come.
China, India, and Southeast Asia (mostly Vietnam because it will be a perfect replacement for Hong Kong as the place for China-the West exchanging stuffs).
Sure, has the sky hit you yet?
Better than sleeping in the Nihonjinron land, buddy.
7 ( +8 / -1 )
Based on what Ray Dalio talked about here. Devaluation is probably the only solution for Japan.
It appreciates the asset prices, mostly stocks, that benefit the rich class greatly. Those shareholders are now mostly foreign. The wild ride that you saw in Nikkei in the last few months is the action of the BoJ monetizing the debts and buying up private assets.
The BoJ is now the biggest shareholder in Japan. The wild ride seems to me is more of a shadowy capital flight where Japanese elites are transferring out of Japan.
At the same time, I also include the China factor here because I have reports from my friends in finance that many Chinese elites are searching for ways to bring money out of China. Xi's regime has tightened capital flows and prepared to wage a long war against the USD. Access to the USD and Gold has been restricted in China. Using Japan as a gateway to America has always been a popular lever for Chinese businesses.
The wild ride in Japanese stock markets will only end when Japan lost its edge in export manufacturing. Because of either working population collapse or industrial replacement by China/Vietnam/India. I calculate it will be happening within the next 10 years as Japan failed to handle Covid-19 and bring Olympics 2021. With no actual physical economy to back up ridiculous monetized debts, The Bank of Japan will inevitably declare a default. The Yen will experience hyperinflation worse than Weimar Germany, and no one will have any business with Japan ever again.
9 ( +13 / -4 )
Let me translate this for all of you.
Hiroaki Nakanishi, chairman of the Japan Business Federation known as Keidanren, stressed the need for a "greater sense of crisis" to be shared among all people.
Please, please, please! Bring Chinese tourists back! Our economy can't operate without them because all Japanese elites put all of their assets in China. We have to appease China if we want to survive!!
Japanese people, please be more cautious if we want to see any Chinese tourists back. The biggest crisis here is not the pandemic, IT IS the lack of China in our economy.
Facing criticism that the declaration came too late, the government of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is urging companies to make sure that employees work from home or stagger working hours.
Better than nothing. I will just remain to be a stubborn old man who does nothing.
Japan is the Nihon, divine place. All crises will magically disappear! American daddies will help us as usual.
There is no problem in Nihon place.
Mimura asked for "flexible and swift" aid from the government and local authorities to firms that follow requests so that they can stay in business.
Woke Opportunist: My businesses are not performing well because I awfully think Japan is still a magical place where money grows from the trees. I should have become more internationalized and globalized. Mistakes learned.
Okay, I am going to ask those fools in the government to give me free money. It will prop up my businesses, while I will take a huge chunk of them to invest in China and Vietnam. I probably think of retiring in Vietnam after fooling those bureaucrats. Hahaha!! There is no way that Japan can survive after the pandemic. NO WAY!
Nihonjinron dreamer: With government money and all debts are our own, we will never risk any collapse. Japan is the God-chosen land. There is nothing wrong even if my business is underperforming and my family is poorer than those Chinese tourists and Vietnamese workers. I will not ever leave Japan at all! All Gaijins are filthy!
The government made a "grave" decision to declare an emergency, Nakanishi said, asking for effective steps against the virus in the shortest possible span of time.
Please, don't destroy my business! Open borders with China and Vietnam.
"It's essential to maintain employment and businesses from the viewpoint of protecting the lives and livelihoods of citizens and measures toward maintaining social and economic activities are also critical," Nakanishi said.
I will employ people as part-time or temporary workers in the guise of "permanent employment". Basically, all my employees are permanent and can't be fired. However, they will have to work part-time and be underpaid. In the statistics, these people will be labeled as employed. Win-win for both businesses and the government to look good.
2 ( +2 / -0 )
Japan keeps saying pro-democratic things about Hong Kong but they still cooperate with China and Vietnam to oppress more people. Additionally, Shinzo Abe and Suga have emulated the Communists to implement many authoritarian laws in Japan. I never ever see a Japanese web brigade until Shinzo Abe came into power, and these trolls are exactly like Wumaos but pro-Imperial Japan.
I would not bet any Japanese firm or Japanese government to ever take on any authoritarian regime.
4 ( +4 / -0 )
It's all talk and empty gesture but none of willful action. If Japan and the EU were resolute against China, then the EU would not give a favorable trade deal with China or Japanese business elites would not expand their businesses in China. IT IS POINTLESS!
Currently, China fully controls the SCS, even the US (the rightful owner, because USA conquered the entire western Pacific) tip toes around, and nobody even know whether there's nukes on them CCP made military installations.
Nope. Vietnam had the most installations and artificial islands in the SCS.
Vietnamese fishing fleets have been intruding China waters (around Hainan Island) as well.
Aside from China, Vietnam is also second as the world's illegal overfishing maritime power.
Vietnam also antagonizes other claimants in the SCS as well. However, they are exceptionally cordial to China in a way that every incident between China-Vietnam is always resolved in a peaceful way. This is why I suspect that China and Vietnam colluded to dominate the whole SCS for themselves.
If Scarborough Shoal was taken by China, then why Vietnam had a presence there? Collusion.
This is why the US has been conducting freedom of navigation missions in the SCS. Vietnam has been on the list with China as the primary antagonists.
Con Dao Island has been solidly been under Vietnamese control as hard as Hainan island in China. The US does not recognize it belongs to Vietnam, while China did. This is one of many reasons why Vietnam will not side with the US in every matter, or even think of becoming an ally.
Vietnam also has some newly purchased subs. China doesn't control any of the territory bordering the South China Sea except Hainan Island and a very small part of their extreme southern coast line. It is not credible for you to say China "fully controls the SCS" when it has no control of the great majority of the territory bordering it. Most of the shores bordering the SCS are controlled by adversaries of China. The US isn't lacking in the means to cripple their facilities either, especially now that the US is not bound by the IMF treaty and can pursue IRBMs and long range ground based cruise missiles.
I want to add that Vietnam also know how to independently all ammunitions and missiles now. One of their greatest missiles in arsenals are KCT-15 and Yakhont. Both of these can easily sink ships in the SCS from Vietnamese mainland as well as S-300 systems and other auxiliary SAM missiles that are unknown. They can do serious damages to the Chinese naval might.
Vietnam brought many Israeli weapons as well as technological schematics. Their modernization efforts are quite independent and impressive. They do not buy American weapons even with all restrictions have been lifted because the USA does not give anything that one can improve and modify. If Vietnam buys F-16, then they want to mod and improve it, so they may one day produce their own jets. However, the US weapons don't have such options as the Russian and Israeli ones where Vietnam can freely play "creative mode" for new products.
If there is anything that Vietnam wants to buy from the US, I bet it will be American "early warning systems" against submarine warfare and aerial warfare. Vietnam does not want to pay too much for an American plane or radar systems for this matter, so this is why they recently signed a defense treaty with Japan. Because Japan has the second-hand goods (The US never ever gave its allies the real things), so Vietnam hopes to emulate the early warning systems from those goods. Eventually, Vietnam can develop their own systems to implement with their Russian-Israeli arms.
6 ( +6 / -0 )
If anything, I would want both the UK and US to investigate SoftBank and Masayoshi Son for their collusion with the Chinese military and the Chinese Communist Party. SoftBank sold its JV operation in China to a state Chinese military company who may have gained knowledge on core technologies through espionage.
If Son was found out to have been colluding with China, he deserved a Meng Wanzhou treatment in the American supermax prison for conspiracy against the West.
4 ( +7 / -3 )
Not stress. Japanese workers are getting anxious and fearful of losing jobs, losing wages, getting lower qualities of living.
It has been going on for years, not Covid-19.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
Posted in: If there is an emergency declaration covering Tokyo and the prefectures of Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa lasts a month, we estimate that consumer spending will decrease by 3.3 trillion yen and 147,000 people will lose their jobs. See in context
Most of Japan Inc's profits are coming from China, the US, and Vietnam nowadays. Of course, most of these companies are black companies who won't report this to the Japanese authority for statistics. God knows how much money they pocketed from sending to Japan - pocketed for the local elites. Shinzo Abe put so much hope on the Olympics because he hoped it can kickstart a new mode for Japan: A Service economy. Now, the venture has definitely failed as Japan's Covid-19 situations are beyond control with the new strains.
As the result, Suga and Nikai are going to beg China and Vietnam to absorb many more Japanese trade deficits for the next two years in exchange for political favors. China probably gets closer to Western core technologies with the help of Japan, and Vietnam gets easier access to credit among all the best international banks/financial institutions in the world with the help of Japan. Last but not least, Japan will accept more Chinese and Vietnamese workers into the country, mostly Vietnamese now, and this will put Japanese unemployment issues worse.
Emergency declaration or not, Japan's economic issues will worsen because of tax hikes and years of inactive structural reforms. It is better to declare to save more Japanese lives now because Japanese growth will be stashed in China and Vietnam now. It is no use to boost the domestic economy at the moment.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
Well we all know this number is laughably low. Multiply that by about 10 and we're closer to the truth.
In the Philippines, the Chinese health authority estimated that at least 50% of the population have been infected. I know that most people here have an anti-China boner but their estimate is close to the truth.
Japan should be somewhat comparable.
2 ( +8 / -6 )
I don't get the 'crash' predictions, what's the reason/s?
If China, India and the SEA don't fill the ridiculous money printing with physical economy (aka selling their goods for USD), then there will be massive crashes. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have been touting the idea of ditching the USD for a long time now. Both China and Russia are ready to sacrifice a few years of hardship if it dragged down the whole global economy. The Covid-19 proved it!
China's trade war with Australia and South Korea's trade war with Japan are minor exercises for what will happen next. They want to test their capability to weather a long shortage of resources and resilience of the West without their manufacturing hubs. I put South Korea here because Moon has been very cozy with China, and his decision to pursue reunification and spat on Japan is really fitting the Chinese interests.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
Posted in: Republicans grapple with post-Trump future