SuperLib comments

Bass: For what crime? 

Hes currently being investigated for wire fraud and tax fraud.

Blacklabel:. they said a higher percentage that Trump would lose than would win. So that makes them wrong when he won.

Oh, boy.

OK, so what I can guess from your thinking is that in a situation where there are lower odds for something happening then the odds were "wrong" when that lower odds thing happens.

You just don't get it. Signing off.

Blacklabel:. but could only get 2:1 these days

Ok, good, let's work with this. You have 2:1 odds. Trump wins. Does that make the odds wrong? The odds didn't say Trump has no chance. They are saying he does have a chance, but it's unlikely. So they pay you a premium on the risk you take.

When you use percentages, like Fivethirtyeight, Trump has a chance. I'm literally telling you that I subscribe to a point of view where your guy can actually win.

Get it?

Bass:. Yaaawn, we keep hearing this. Lol

No, we don't.

Fivethirtyeight uses percentages, not polls.

Blacklabel: By your revisionist history all polls were right because none said Hillary 100% to 0% to win.

Yeah, um, I think I'm gonna let you go. I just don't think you have the capacity to really understand this.

Bass: So it’s a lot closer than the liberals would care for.

Biden doesn't need to win Florida to win the election. Trump does.

So 538 was accurate last time, right?

There is no "accuracy" in percentages. If Trump has a 1% change of winning then he has a chance of winning. It's low, but not impossible. It depends on how it all plays out. And in 2016 FiveThirtyEight was one of the few places that said Clinton could potentially lose.

I'd just rather be in my position than yours. You have to hope everyone is wrong again. Not just liberal news outlets, but everyone. Clinton wasn't very likeable, had a smaller lead, and the FBI helping Trump by publicly reopening the email investigation. None of those exist today.

From FiveThirtyEight.com:

Biden up 9 points, in Michigan, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 9 points in Wisconsin, and 3 points in Arizona.

We're to the point where Trump would not only have to reproduce his turnaround from 2016, he'd have to do it to a much greater extent.

Bass: And that’s why we love Mitch

And the goalposts in the conversation have been moved. Here's where I bail.

bass: and what they love is a guy that will punch these idiot media fools in the mouth

And we love the media fools like social media blocking Trump and punching him in the mouth.

Bass: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/dire-rates-the-biden-tax-plan/

What a poorly written article.

The author left out the part that a vast, vast majority of that is for people who make more than $400,00 a year. People might read it and think these tax increases will be applied to them, which it most likely does not.

This was one of my favorites: "The capital-gains rate for wealthy individuals is lifted to 39.6 percent (so get ready to sell everything in December if Biden wins)." The current rate is 37%, which the author left out. The "sell the farm" angle starts to lose it's gusto when you learn it's a 2.9% increase. Yep, better just pack it all up and move out of America.

The fact is this article is from a rich guy who is trying to get working class guys to save him money while doing nothing for the working class guy.

Trump used to always vote by mail.

Bass: Which the majority of Republicans will do on that day.

Well, yeah. That's the plan. Have more Republicans show up in person and have more Democrats vote by mail. Then try to have the vote by mail ballots disqualified.

Is this all new to you?

Sneezy: I don't think Biden will win Georgia or Texas

Biden's chances of winning Georgia slightly improved today, but it still comes down to turnout.

"Have a good night, Mom. I'm going to a polling center with the ability to shoot someone in the face."

Blacklabel: So Biden is winning Wisconsin by 17 points,

I haven't seen that number. Fivethirtyeight shows him leading by 8 points. I'm comfortable with that.

We will have to see how the positive economic news impacts the polling, but there aren't many undecided voters left. And not much time. And increasing COVID numbers.

“Anyone who intimidates a voter in Michigan by brandishing a firearm or, for that matter, by threatening with a knife, baseball bat, fist, or otherwise menacing behavior, is committing a felony under existing law,” the court said.

Good.

Nomination: So in the meantime, crowds gather in Philly and burn/loot the city down and people here conveniently seem to think COVID only goes to Trump rallies.

You're comparing a lawless crowd of rioters with an organized rally for the President of the United States. One has control over the behavior of the participants, the other does not. Simply put: Lawless rioters give Trump fans no special permissions.

bass: liberals want to deflect from their own problems and scandals and failures, but want to keep the focus solely on the President only.

And conservatives want to deflect from their own problems and scandals and failures.

Right now there is literally an open investigation into the Trump organization that gets zero mention from the right. An actual, real, confirmed investigation. How often do you hear about it in your bubble? How often do you talk about it?

The GOP really did a good job here. First, they banned counting of ballots until the election day. That means no early counting, which means less of a chance they will have a result on election day.

Next they went to the SC and asked them to throw out ballots received after Nov 3 (but postmarked by Nov 3). That would effectively leave such a small window open for counting the votes that the mail in ballots, favored by Democrats, might be excluded.

They do this because they are scum who want minority rule in the United States.

Why do so many people who have worked in the Trump administration hate him?

We Have A Lot Of New Polls But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-have-a-lot-of-new-polls-but-theres-little-sign-of-the-presidential-race-tightening/

After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in between. And although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for Joe Biden in the Midwest.

(end)

I guess Americans aren't buying his "COVID is over" talking points.

Thanks, Trump.

Poor conservatives. Always the victim.

"I'll be back later. Gonna head to the polling place with my gun in case I have to kill someone."

Bass:. They can do their job for once, please tell them.

Nah. We enjoy having 1%er white christian males under our thumb in the United States. Endless victimization. You should be used to it by now.

Bass:. the media unwilling to do

The media doesn't hand out indictments. Hope that helps.

Trump Hasn’t Gained Ground Since The Debate, And He’s Running Out Of Time

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-race-hasnt-changed-much-since-the-debate-and-thats-good-for-biden/

But let’s unpack the latest polls conducted entirely (or mostly) after the last presidential debate to better answer that question of just how much the race is tightening. Overall, we have six national surveys and eight battleground-state polls, and on average, these 14 polls show essentially no change from before the debate.

It's just such an odd thought for me. "Well, gonna grab my gun and go to the polling place. Be back later."

What are they going to do? Shoot someone standing in line to vote?

Bass: I would worry more about liberals taking or burning ballot boxes

Odd thing to worry about, but I won't get in the way of your stress.