Tristan Kawatsuma comments

Posted in: The Russians (or Chinese, or North Koreans) are coming! What to do: Fight or flight? See in context

Sounds like both sides on the issue of Japan and War are standing firm, though I suspect the conservative/nationalist side is getting some growth such as with the high support for raising the JSDF budget to 2% GDP.

I see war with China more likely than war with Russia. However China has plenty of reasons to not attack Taiwan which is how war would break out in this next decade. Despite the increase in military spending, everyone still wants to keep the status quo.

I do have to admit that unless the attack force is limited, I don’t see Japan being able to defend itself without American support. Honestly only Japan’s maritime branch seems able to take on an invasion fleet while the ground and air forces would have to resort to quick strike tactics instead of pitched battles.

Honestly, as concerned as I am of the tensions across East Asia, I don’t want the budget to go over 2% GDP or even reach it. Maybe at most I’m cool with between 1% and 1.5%.

As for what I would do if I lived in Japan during an invasion, I would either move if possible because I don’t want to be killed. If it was too late for that, I would help out the JSDF, though I wouldn’t become a soldier. I have methemogloninemia, a Japanese strain of it meaning my blood cells don’t take in as much oxygen as regular ones do, so I’m not great physically. Under occupation, I probably would cooperate to some extent while seeing what I can do to fight back. After all, not all invaders are going to be pure evil. Worse comes to worse though, I will take up arms.

I personally do find issue with conscription. While I like the military, I wouldn’t want to be forced into it. Sure, between being a volunteer only force and the lack of benefits to being a member the JSDF has one of the smaller defense forces in the region, but I find it admirable that they are just done with conscription. It’s not like the JSDF will have the numbers to stop people from running anyways. With less than 300,000 personnel in the entire JSDF, they will have to rely on the police and coast guard to bolster numbers. Technically there is also no need for more troops as Japan like Taiwan has really mountainous terrain. It was a nightmare for American planners during WW2 to think about how long and bloody the Invasion of Japan would be, so I doubt China will do much better if we all think that an invasion of Taiwan would be hard enough for China, and especially after Russia’s poor performance with terrain in its favor.

All in all, tensions are high. I support being ready to punch back after getting punched, though I hope things aren’t taken too far. Nations like Japan are dependent on both the US and China for defense and economics respectively. I am concerned about Article 9, but given that opinion polls still have a near-even divide between respondents on the issue, I think it’ll last. I honestly think the Japanese want a shield to bash back against attackers instead of a sword. They’ll want the shield to be made of the best material, but still want to avoid using it. To be fair to nations like China and places like Okinawa though, a shield can still be a weapon and given how Captain America uses his, things can still go badly. However, I still hold out hope that the Invasion of Ukraine is making everybody think twice. Yes, nations are building up armed forces in case of a war, but with the hammering of Russia via economics and its slow progress in the war, I like to imagine China is having even further doubts on a military invasion. If Ukraine wins the war, then I have high doubts on another one breaking out. In recent history we’ve seen the US getting kicked out of Afghanistan by the Taliban, a political guerrilla force. If Russia loses to Ukraine, then I doubt China will want to try a war against Taiwan, especially if the US is serious about protecting the status quo. I honestly think it’ll take something drastic for war to break out and while politicians are pushing things towards the edge, I can’t really say that they have reached the teetering part. They are getting closer, but I think we can still breath easy. Of course if the US builds a base on Taiwan or signs a new treaty with Taiwan, it’s time to start sweating bullets. As is also the case if China’s grey zone incursions into Taiwanese territory end up with someone getting killed to a plane crashing.

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