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Posted in: Trump wants Justice Dept to unmask author of New York Times opinion piece See in context

I don't think anyone in the Trump administration penned a letter saying they were betraying him. I think it is a manipulation to get Trump to implode on himself.

Duped by a USC student, someone ran the "essay" through http://turnitin.com . It showed as a 100% match to a USC student essay, turned in without citation - making it an original essay-sept 5-overachiever! Archived & submitted to the repository within minutes of New York Times.

The treason piece was submitted as part of a college essay by a USC student on September 5th. It did not originate within the white house.

The MSM figured it sounded good so they published it to sow discord within the Trump administration, and attempt to get Trump to self-destruct the white house.

So basically the New York Times dug up a college essay within minutes of it hitting the college archives and becoming searchable. Then published it with a fabricated back story to cause the Trump administration to implode on itself. That's quite a psych war tactic I must say!!

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Twitter's Alex Jones ban: Blip in sea of abuse? See in context

These so called executives are crazy; simply nuts. For some reason the corporate manager and owner of Twitter Jack Dorsey, CEO and Sheryl Sandberg, COO Facebook denies that people, employees of their companies, actually rules the content decisions.

To defend the platform from detractors who identified the ideological filtration, both Sandberg and Dorsey declared an outlandish proposition that some engineered omnipotent, nebulous and invisible force has the decision-making authority to regulate content; and does so without consideration of view. It’s just so very strange. But that’s their story they are sticking to.

Both of these people would have more credibility if they're just intellectually honest.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Twitter's Alex Jones ban: Blip in sea of abuse? See in context

I guess they could not handle him showing up at that big tech hearing, where Twitter REALLY got hammered for censorship and lost a lot of company value. Might as well just blame all the profit losses on Alex rather than admit it was their own behavior that caused it. So just continue that behavior and ban Alex forever. That works!

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: U.S.-Canada trade talks grind on See in context

protection for media companies

Trudeau declared unequivocally that Canada won't join any trade arrangement that eliminates his nation's protectionist policy on “cultural industries”.

What are Trudeau's “cultural industries“? Well, that would be oversight over the telecom and media sectors. Essentially Trudeau would not want any of that vexatious free market media things meddling with the state-operated propaganda broadcasts. Really you cannot make this crap up...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-indicates-he-will-not-bend-on-key-nafta-demands-at-talks/

Good to see all this stuff out in the public. Trudeau cannot have the bothersome free market speech things interfering the progressive state-managed media. When you think about it, it's rather comical while also concurrently discloses Trudeau's progressive ideology.

The left side spectrum worldview has invariably been dependent upon on control over the thoughts of the populace under their dominion. Trudeau's open attestation is a direct declaration of all criticism imposed on the political left.

Either the direct state control is via TV broadcast or newspaper or even social media, the authoritarian command ways of the progressive global perspective utterly can't contend on an open arena of ideas. Utilizing a well cloaking intricated catchy phraseology such as "cultural industries", is only signify to becloud the innate hypocrisy between what is being advocated and what is actually veritable.

"Freedom of speech is a principal pillar of a free government; when this support is taken away, the constitution of a free society is dissolved, and tyranny is erected on its ruins."

                         - Benjamin Franklin

Democrat-socialist progressive ideology is a credo of authoritarian regimentation that can only function flawlessly if the same entities are completely in charge of the economic composition that warrants their existence. To break the foundation that endorses this ideology, one must eliminate their commanding authority over the financial/economical facets of things.

One particular statement that caught my attention when Trudeau's says,

"It is inconceivable to Canadians that an American network might buy Canadian media affiliates, whether it’s newspapers or TV stations or TV networks,"

That right there is a synonymous sentence that could be reiterated by any bunch of communist authoritarians.

Think about it... To put it plainly, there are trillions and trillions worth of dollars at stake in this!!

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Anonymous official says Trump staff working against 'amoral' president: New York Times See in context

After evaluating this strange CNN report,

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/05/media/new-york-times-resistance-oped-jim-dao/index.html

on the backstory of the nameless op-ed, it becomes cleared the entire narrative of the New York Times publication was a fabricated political operation between similar minded collaborators in the media universe and DC swampy politics.

This is how this rubbish goes: An unknown nameless person worked with another anonymous person, who operated as an anonymous go-between, between the media and the second anonymous person. Basically, there is no deriving authoritative figure; it is all fabulized.

Ask yourself this (if you are a logical person), in just about a week the media blitzkrieg on full force with the McCain's politicized funeral, Kavanaugh's confirmation debacle at the Senate hearing, the Nike controversy, and now this anonymous op-ed and high probability more shiznit storm coming in the few days/weeks before mid-terms. Are all these recent events just a flukely coincidental? High probability as logic dictates, this is not purely coincidence due to the timing of this unusual events.

Those who are involved either directly or indirectly in this, with high probability, must be really, really worried and afraid of this...

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

More Mericans are working than ever before in the history of US.

https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2018-08-29/gdp-increases-second-quarter

Admonishing pundits expected less but US economy is actually growing more.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

Job availability for American citizens is more abundant than ever.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.toc.htm

Rate of wage increase is accelerating quicker than any time in the last 3 decades

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

Inflation rate is expanding lower than increasing rate of wages.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.toc.htm

Productivity is flourishing rapidly than anytime in the last 10 years or so.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.nr0.htm

Littlest unemployment ever in 323 metropolitan areas

https://www.recode.net/platform/amp/2018/8/22/17770348/target-walmart-home-depot-macro-economy-consumer-environment

Surpassing than anyone has ever recorded when it comes to consumer optimism.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001

Manufacturing job that are well-paying are thriving at the uppermost rate in 5 decades.

Seems like this is just getting started for the Main Street MAGA benefits...

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Posted in: Anonymous official says Trump staff working against 'amoral' president: New York Times See in context

This is a very familiar "republicon establishment" viewpoint judging from emphasis of the frame, pattern and tonality. The "resistance" denunciation imposed within the article is focalized around the perspective of the professional political prestige status as well as their sense of noteworthiness. If NRO's Jonah Goldberg served for the administration, this guy would be the number one suspect - that is the radiating sense of elitism and superiority conveyed.

The opinions disclosed inside the "anonymous" op-ed exhibit the quintessential worldview of elitist republicons. That's to assert, a "holier than thou neocon GOPe establishment kind" who favors mayo and cucumber sandwiches with no crust on white bread sliced into tiny triangles. Their elitist cocky view sees POTUS as a deplorable, vulgarian outsider who needs to be controlled by others who are much more significant.

In mixture with the ample praises for the late McCain, from the composition of the trade stance espoused inside the writing we can see the focal point of this "republicon resistance" is rooted on POTUS unorthodox trade/economic protocols as well as withdrawal from foreign interventionism. Trump's policies do not align with the globalist traditional vision and representation of Wall Street, pontificating financial club, and last but not the least is the COC's (US Chamber of Commerce) Tom Donahue.

One thing people have to keep in mind is there are two sides for each party. Democrats have decent human beings on their side also but are rare and usually under the radar. Republicons also consists of two sides. One side is the sinister establishment consisting of the RINOs (Republican In Name Only) who are likely to sell out their citizens and hold onto their power as long as they possibly can.

Similarly with the snaky, money grubbing, greedy UNIPARTY consisting mostly of GOPes but also several Dems who are bought off by the Chamber of Commerce (Tom Donahue), K Street, Unions (Richard Trumka), Wall Street, financial elite club and the various big, greedy multinational corporations. But of course you cannot forget there also decent human beings on the Repubs side who are real patriots and will not sell themselves out or their citizens. Unfortunately this kind is very rare to find in the DC swamp.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Posted in: Chaos grips Senate hearing on Trump Supreme Court pick Kavanaugh See in context

Dems strategic political bureaucracy was on full display during the confirmation hearing in the Senate. I've watched the whole thing and there was a moment where a man surprisingly approached Kavanaugh to try to shake his hand during one of the event's break time.

See NBC News coverage...

https://youtu.be/HTQbYKOhYf4

After watching this clip, it's clear that Kavanaugh was not expecting this and was totally thrown off by this moment. Judging from his facial expression and reaction he was confused and totally got blindsided by this situation.

This look like a manipulated moment and flawlessly staged antic.

The man who approached Kavanaugh is Fred Guttenberg. This man is a father from Parkland High School. There was a shooting incident in that school sometime back in February of this year. He is gun control advocate and a Dem supporter. Kavanaugh like most people in the US has no clue who this person is trying to grab him.

Well let's dig a little deeper for some factual evidence and see how this event was actually perfectly choreographed to create chaos...

2 days ago Mr. Guttenberg had revealing cryptic message on Twitter the had a "role to play" at the upcoming Kavaunaugh's confirmation. This a verifiable proof of his admission.

Twitter link: 

https://twitter.com/fred_guttenberg/status/1036600460726161408

Twitter image: 

https://images2.imgbox.com/4d/91/cj77R51d_o.jpg

Then the connection happens here. Senator Feinstein says on her Twitter that wanted Guttenberg to participate in the carefully directed moment. Her invitation to this man is an evidence of Feinstein's admission.

Twitter link: 

https://twitter.com/SenFeinstein/status/1037100661849108480

Twitter image: 

https://images2.imgbox.com/bd/a3/UtjmYeDc_o.jpg

Now fast forward to the actual event. Senator Feinstein tweet in publicly but for some reason did not take any chance at all to introduce Kavanaugh to Fred Guttenberg at the time of her earlier meetings with the nominee. Why would she not do this, this is the most professionally formal thing to do in this circumstance. Well, well, unless she an ulterior motive not to. What else? Additionally Feinstein didn't even take the time to introduce Mr. Guttenberg to Jugdge Kavanaugh during her remarks. She cannot make a petty excuse that she accidentally forgot after all that recent public announcement on tweets by both of them.

It's clear as blue sky that this is evidently a fabricated occasion prearranged to seize an optic for story-like distribution.

This MSM image where they said that Guttenberg was trying to have a friendly handshake to Kavanaugh. But the nominee judge look like he is walking away instead.

Picture is worth thousand words or something along that line...

https://images2.imgbox.com/60/9b/l3OcpzEM_o.jpg

That picture (link above) is what exact result of the moment what the narrative engineers desired. Clearly without a doubt that it's propaganda fabrication at its perfection when executed flawlessly. Just look at Kavanaugh's face on the pic, that's priceless. A perfect one of many examples Dems political propaganda weapon at their disposal for dispatching purposes and then distributing it to their ideological fanatics.

I call this the evolution of the modern Dems. The energy and time spent they are willing to flavor it to their not so genuine constructs resulting in the perception of deceit, manipulation and disinformation. Amazing amount of spending of their time thinking and planning all of this just to deceive the public. I could only imagine what other potential malice capabilities they would execute if they were in power today.

Then again this is just a small taste compare to how much effort was generated into creating the vast Russian scheme. Scary how logic is thrown out of the windows for these guys but instead they walk down the path of being extremely volatile intellectually and emotionally.

Check the news headline out as a proof to see how coordinated this was with the MSM the moment this happened...

   Fred Guttenberg father of Parkland shooting victim/MSNBC contributor/liberal activists tries to shake hands with Judge Brett Kavanugh during hearing break! The judge is clearly worried about who the nut is & liberals are trying to say that he dissed him! pic.twitter.com/3gMV2RFU1m

  — GITMO ?￰゚ヌᄌ (@President1Trump) September 4, 2018

   "My daughter was murdered in Parkland."

   Video shows Fred Guttenberg, father of Parkland shooting victim Jamie Guttenberg, attempting to speak with Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh during a break in today's confirmation hearing. https://t.co/g944k9nDGc pic.twitter.com/1XNA5lnztt

 — ABC News (@ABC) September 4, 2018

 This is the defining image of the day.

Brett Kavanaugh sneers at a man (Fred Guttenberg) who lost his daughter (Jamie Guttenberg) in the Parkland school shooting. This is who Brett Kavanaugh is. pic.twitter.com/eti5ovjRfn

— Mikel Jollett (@Mikel_Jollett) September 4, 2018

   Fred Guttenberg, whose daughter died in the Parkland school shooting, tweeted that U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh “pulled his hand back, turned his back to me and walked away.” https://t.co/jpLfHl21C7

 — TorontoStar (@TorontoStar) September 4, 2018

Brett Kavanaugh "turned his back," says father of Parkland victim who tried to shake his hand https://t.co/jwGjPe2hwz

— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) September 4, 2018

Father of Parkland victim says Brett Kavanaugh would not shake his hand at the Supreme Court confirmation hearing: "He pulled his hand back, turned his back to me and walked away. I guess he did not want to deal with the reality of gun violence" https://t.co/rPMI6Lr0b2 pic.twitter.com/vO0DJbtNJR

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) September 4, 2018

WATCH: Fred Guttenberg, the father of a Parkland school shooting victim, approaches Brett Kavanaugh during a break in his confirmation hearing, but when he attempted to shake the Supreme Court nominee's hand, Kavanaugh appears to walk away. https://t.co/U2w8doDZr5 pic.twitter.com/xyQwhWHARr

— CBS News (@CBSNews) September 4, 2018

The disinformation blitzkrieg on full force. Congratulations Dianne, you've just divided America even more. Thank you. Just WOW :-D

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Kaepernick ads spark boycott calls, but Nike is seen as winning in the end See in context

Follow-up in relation to my first post: https://japantoday.com/category/world/update-4-kaepernick-ads-spark-boycott-calls-but-nike-is-seen-as-winning-in-the-end#comment-1733640

It gets even worse for Nike because with high probability all the exclusive contracts with the Chinese have been sub contracted to essentially very secretive, non publicized manufacturing facilities in NoKo.

Link for more details...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-labour-china-insight/north-korea-factories-humming-with-made-in-china-clothes-traders-say-idUSKBN1AT00Q

Nike apparel and various products are made in NoKo sweatshops. Not many know this, but NoKo has always been China's unofficial proxy province. The corrupt Beijing contract approval process enables all state approved organizations to use Kim Jong's sweatshops as sub contractors. Nike happily obliged to use this contracted manufacturing terms in multiple nations.

Link for reference of list the countries involved.

https://business.nmsu.edu/~dboje/nike/korea.html

NoKo sub-contracting utilization enables plausible deniability toward the NoKo facilities by the parent organization signing the contracts. Nike board of directors is very concerned about the effects on their profits with the Section 301 tariffs. It presents a two-fold risk to them where

1)Chinese imports will be taxed and 2) sanctions will be applied against any orgs that operate in NoKo.

Nike is extremely expose to the risks associated within a China/Noko VS. Merica trade rebalancing war because of the way they structure their manufacturing contracts with the Chinese. A multinational corporation like Nike doing concurrent business China, NoKo as well as ASEAN countries is severely vulnerable to POTUS upcoming Section 301 tariffs. Nike really, really despises POTUS for this that they are willing to play the political business game with the current administration. Seems emotional rather than applying logic to critical business decisions.

Based on current market valuation, even a quarter percent drop in stock as a result from this political business ploy with controversial figure, Kaepernick, is peanuts compared to massive financial risk ramifications within multi billions and billions of manufacturing contracts that could become of no value overnight.

Nike is confidently not worried at all if they lose, let's say hypothetically 50% of all the American consumer base who will boycott their products. What matters to them more as a big deal consequence is losing their whole supply chain, outward inventories and the ability to no longer manufacture products. This would cost Nike much more in the bigger picture.

There are many present NoKo sanctions that have been breached multiple times but been overlooked by POTUS and the Treasury Dept. Both are well aware of the breeches as clearly evident in this linked article below.

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201808070033.html

Unfortunately we can, with high probability, conclude that Nike is in the same boat with CCP's objectives because the company is sympathetically dependent on China with the way they structure their manufacturing business model. Well guess what, Chairman Xi will happily oblige and help them any way he can from any anti-Trump trade related endeavors.

Xi as the final decision maker will gladly assist Nike in offsetting to decrease America's revenue by way of willingly lower the productions cost. A rather intriguing quid-pro-quo.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Posted in: Trudeau indicates he will not bend on key NAFTA demands at talks See in context

The global capital markets across various assets have been overall flat or neutral where the global money flows are going to be traded and invested in with this NAFTA drama in the last few months. Finally here we are and looking more clearer and clearer by the day. As a full time personal, private institutional macro fundamental investor and technical intrinsic value-based trader like me who trades and invest 7-9 USD figure voluminous transactions through Forex futures & spot, options, bonds, stock indexes, ETFs, commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies and real estate, it's been a challenge tracking this deal due the fact that it's been politicized by Canada's leaders more so than handling it like a business. Global money outflows and big institutional players like myself hate politics more than anything when it relates to trading and investing especially for short to medium term participants.

Anyway, it will be doubtful for PM Trudeau to join in a 3-way deal based on his current political needs viewpoint rather than economic perspective. More importantly is dealing with issues of the adverse trade arrangements that Canada has included the reservation of 1) non regulatory barriers in telecom/banking sectors, 2) protectionist tariffs in the dairy areas and 3) in aggregation with subsidies of the lumber as well as aeronautics sectors.

As someone who has a business and economic background, when it comes to trade and commerce I always look at the structural baselines to have a better bird's eye view and understanding of underlying issues. So let's take a look at this way... since it's trilateral party type of engagement, I would take the Mex-Merica agreement out of the equation during the CAN-US discussions. You see the problem now becomes easier to see.

On the subject matters at the heart of the Trudeau/Freeland's trade priorities, any regression and backsliding from the present trade affiliation with Merica is a sure, big deal loss. Pres. Trump in conventional terms, desiderates the expulsion of subsidies, tariffs and non-tariff barriers if Canada wants to trade with Merica. The whole point of this is that Trump is yearning to actually form a trilateral trade bloc if Canada agrees to join. Or if not, then go to a bilateral accord basing it on virtually similar principles of an actual trade bloc applications.

Here is Pres. Trump's play... He could propose to get rid of the existing aluminum and steel tariffs as long as Trudeau concurs to significantly curb on imported aluminum/steel from China. But this proposition is a long shot from materializing for Freeland/Trudeau to agree to the most difficult terms to compromise regarding the "rules of origin" trade issue (a.k.a. the infamous NAFTA loophole). Why? Justine plays hard ball on this because (and this is big) Canada's heavy industrial base is almost non-existent and gradually dying which is an integral part of a nation's economic foundation especially for exporting countries.

You see, on the other side Mexican Pres. elect senior Obrador, in one of his campaign promise to his citizens, needs to develop heavy industry for Mexico's economic expansion plans in order to engineer a genuine manufacturing industrial base. AMLO as they call him in Mexico, smartly sees energy resource creation as financial collateral favoring achievement of authentic heavy manufacturing investment in Mexico. And you know, he's absolutely correct in that line of thinking.

On the contrary, PM Justine Trudeau is demonstrating wholly a different set of economic engagements. He is showing no signals of trying to reestablish the heavy industry in Canada but instead gradually eliminating that sector at the injunction of his liberal environmental policy. Without a heavy manufacturing industrial sector, the country essentially has to maintain their import of component products (constructed from heavy manufacturing base) and frankly compile those parts in Canada. China and Merica are their main suppliers for Canadian component parts. A limited industrial base impedes Justine from agreeing to any rules of origin (a.ka.a. NAFTA loophole - backdoor approach) that could indispensably limit their economy.

In order for Trudeau to structure a fair, reciprocal and transparent trade connection with Merica with similar groundwork of manufacturing priorities Mex-US accord applications, Canada will have to fundamentally overturn decades over decades of trade and internal regulatory as well economic policies. Or, if Trudeau does not prefer this path, Canada would have impose some type of limitations to their Asian purchases and instead us the Mex and/or Merica as their component parts origination supplier. Hopefully Trudeau/Freeland understand this because this is elementary industrial economics 101.

Another perspective to look at if you take away the Mex-US accord equation away from any reassessment of a potential Can-US agreement, what I can clearly see in a bilateral negotiation of trade between Canada and Merica is that Trudeau and his government already eats two-thirds of the pie in current NAFTA terms. Any move to make the pie (trade engagement) more proportionate in a bilateral compromise (50/50) implies that Trudeau will have to relinquish some of that pie. This is a big dilemma for the Freeland/Trudeau team because they currently don't have means of internal economic policy to renounce.

In the last few months, Chrystia and Justine saying (to save face) all the deals they are trying to take on is for protecting their nation's value and to protect also the Canadian workers. But I don't buy this BS, I can see through Trudeau's political needs viewpoint instead of an economic perspective. What they are really stating is Canadian gov wants to protect their telecom and banking sectors from outside competition by retaining all the protectionist barriers. Of course, they also want to retain their aeronautics as well as lumber industry subsidies and additionally protectionist dairy as well. Last but not the least is to keep the NAFTA loophole going by keeping Canada's present manufacturing and assembly mechanism of durable goods without the nettlesome environmental/industrial objections from constructing the components of those products.

Pres. Trump's economic objective angle sees the challenge this way... it's much easier by far to acknowledge the Trudeau's position and make independent move the will cut a quarter slice of the pie. Meaning Trump's strategy will just place a 20 percent to 25% tariff on Canada's automobile manufacturing sector which forces these automobile corps to relocate back to Merica. To close the NAFTA backdoor approach in order to shutdown the 3rd party exploitation loophole, Trump and his economic team will institute a duty on any imported durable good that go beyond an established percentage of North American content.

This is why most pundits about Trump's auto-tariff strategy are totally misunderstood. It's not POTUS ulterior motive to banish the auto-manufacturing per se, but rather that Trump has long recognized Trudeau/Freeland dynamic duo's priorities are as they exist. Lighthizer, Trumps negotiator, understands the issues well at its general and root cause. This is the most simple but very logical solution to approach in Trump's economic perspective.

To put it simply, bottom line is 1/4 slice of the pie will transpose back to Merica by putting 25% tariffs on all Canadian autos.

Done.

This way Trudeau can keep his priorities intact and he can manipulatively go tell their constituents tha he is preserving the values of Canada's citizens.

See how this works?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Kaepernick ads spark boycott calls, but Nike is seen as winning in the end See in context

It's surprising not so many business-minded people cannot see the bigger picture of this controversial marketing/branding campaign move. This doesn't seem to make sense if someone purely views this from a fundamental financial/economic perspective unless you recognize this stratagem in a much larger picture, in fact a big concealed picture. There is far bigger play here people, far more consequential even if the ads cost over about 4Billion or so. It's not just Nike who's in this. Levis and the NFL are also connected to this so called business arrangement done with political flavor attached to it.

Why would be Nike, a heavyweight in sports apparel arena deliberately stake out a branding arrangement that's detrimental to their financial welfare? It seems so absurd on the logical surface because multinational corps such as Nike with high certainty won't ever decide on a marketing decision that's unfavorable to their financial interests.

From a logical business stand-point, this is not a normal procedure for critical business decisions unless there is a hidden risk not relating to what is clearly apparent on the surface. With high probability, an invisible risk or gamble that has nothing to do whatsoever with Kaepernick. This guys is just being used by rewarding a handsome contract that won't even budge Nike's budget. But human greed takes over and he's hurting for some bling bling so who cares. 5mil or so per year + royalties for however the long the contract duration is a tiny, drop in bucket for Nike overall.

Nike doesn't view ANTIFA or BLM-like political championing or even the American consumers as their main critical risk at all. More importantly, as most of public are fully not aware of, is the larger, bigger picture of financial risk that is/are got to do all with geopolitics and the rebalancing of international trade accords currently implemented by the present administration.

Nike has attached its enormous corporate presence to a decade long business distribution that's very reliant on the vitality of the freshly negotiated manufacturing contracts. There are millions and billions at stake here folks. This is the real hidden risk that nobody talks about. Not even the so called darling MSM (even GPlus Media) on both sides of the political spectrum.

Here is the hidden aspect I'm talking about. $158 billion at risk by corps such as Nike, Apple, and 18 other orgs. See link below for more detailed info...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade-war-watch-these-are-the-us-companies-with-the-most-at-stake-in-china-2018-03-29?ns=prod/accounts-mw

These contracts that covers the manufacturing of Nike goods are in the vicinity exclusively based on global agreements with Asian companies. See website below for reference.

https://business.nmsu.edu/~dboje/nike/korea.html

There's some ASEAN members but North Korea and China have the most quantitative risk of them all as shown from the article earlier I've linked to.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade-war-watch-these-are-the-us-companies-with-the-most-at-stake-in-china-2018-03-29?ns=prod/accounts-mw

With high probability, POTUS is about to impose a walloping round of Section 301 tariffs on imported Chinese products. This consequential move hurts Nike the most out of the other manufacturing companies that have contracts with China. Therefore, POTUS objective goal towards trade rebalance negotiations with Xi and co signifies the most quantifiable hazard that would jeopardizes Nike's business agreements.

It's not coincidence the timing of this announcement of Kaepernick because this happened after the conclusion of the Section 301 hearing regarding $200bil worth of tariffs for China. After the event, it's so damn obvious, Nike board of directors decided to counter for those massive, pending tariffs by stealth-fully staking out a business political position.

https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/august/public-hearings-proposed-section-301

I don't about you but to me this painfully obvious that this the heart of the whole issue. It's always been about the money, people! Nothing more, nothing less. Period. Everything else you see are optics and smoke screens for distraction purposes.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Posted in: Biden feels the push to take on Trump in 2020 See in context

Doubt it, the economy, the revised tax code, deregulation’s, interest in reinvesting in the US, 4.2 GDP, rebuilding the middle class, working class and middle America and the Democrats offer...

@bass4funk

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

More Mericans are working than ever before in the history of US.

https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2018-08-29/gdp-increases-second-quarter

Admonishing pundits expected less but US economy is actually growing more.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

Job availability for American citizens is more abundant than ever.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.toc.htm

Rate of wage increase is accelerating quicker than any time in the last 3 decades

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

Inflation rate is expanding lower than increasing rate of wages.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.toc.htm

Productivity is flourishing rapidly than anytime in the last 10 years or so.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.nr0.htm

Littlest unemployment ever in 323 metropolitan areas

https://www.recode.net/platform/amp/2018/8/22/17770348/target-walmart-home-depot-macro-economy-consumer-environment

Surpassing than anyone has ever recorded when it comes to consumer optimism.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001

Manufacturing job that are well-paying are thriving at the uppermost rate in 5 decades.

Seems like this is just getting started for Main Street benefits... Wonder what Joe's plans are in 2020 for Main Streeters?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Trump, Sessions approved of Putin meeting proposal: former campaign adviser See in context

Mueller’s “Russian collusion” probe is literally founded on a fraudulent dossier, which was paid for by the Clinton campaign, and compiled by “opposition research” firm Fusion GPS. the politicized FBI and DOJ, working in direct cooperation (and collusion) with the Clinton campaign, was able to use this dossier to trick a top secret FISA court into obtaining warrants to spy on the Trump campaign during the 2016 election. 

@ Serrano

Steele Dossier contents inside are not exclusive to Christopher Steele. 

Proprietary ownership of the Steele Dossier content is Fusion GPS entities. 

Unknown (mostly like Fusion entities) FBI contractors entities used unlawful FBI FISA-702 searches for political oppo-research.

In April 2016 Mike Rogers, NSA Director at that time, shut it down.

Glen Simpson hired Nellie Ohr in May 2016

Bruce Ohr had database access working inside the DOJ-NSD

Nellie Ohr provided much of the research for the dossier content.

Most of Dossier contents was provided my Nellie Ohr who also applied for a HAM radio license (May 23rd 2016) so her and Chris Steele's communication won't be traced.

Michael Cohen traveling to Prague is inside the Steele Dossier is untrue due to the fact it wasn't the right Michael Cohen.

Link to FISA redacted report

http://imgbox.com/aNxFJqSa

Conspiring entities who did the DOJ/FBI FISA-702 searches on“Michael Cohen Travel” screwed up and simply got the wrong Cohen. Too bad for this error because another connection between unauthorized DOJ/FBI FISA search queries, and people who gained custody of this organic data as well as the finished product with fabricated contents within it, the Steele Dossier. A very tangible enough evidence to the connect the dots.

One of FBI's equivocal FISA-702 search subject matter named Michael Cohen. The search organic database results showed a person traveling to Prague which supposedly is/was Trump's lawyer.

But the government contractor or whoever entity that somehow gain unauthorized access to the FISA-702 organic data search "about query" gave a return on the wrong guy who is also named Michael Cohen. Whoever that contractor was doing the searching made an error and got the wrong guy. This raw data was passed on Fusion-GPS to compile it to the dossier.

This significant error connects the use of NSA as well as FBI database searches to the intelligence stratagem between multiple parties consisting of Clinton associates through Percoie, to Glen Simpson of Fusion, to Nellie Ohr, to Chris Steele, to Bruce Ohr, to Peter Strzok, to Stefan Halper, to Sally Yates and then finally reconstructed for a FISA surveillance application to be approved by a FISA judge.

Presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer at the FISA courts, profiled that between Nov 2015 - May 2016 of the thousands and thousands of search quaries, she discovered that a staggering amount of 85% of those search queries where illicit and flagitious unauthorized violations in reference to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. 85% is unbelievable!!

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: China's 'Silk Road' project runs into debt jam See in context

If their manufacturing sector slows down, then China's doesn't have any fall-back position to lean against... a good example is this.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-pmi/china-august-manufacturing-growth-slows-to-14-month-low-caixin-pmi-idUSKCN1LJ03Z

800lb Panda in the global trade and commerce stage is conceivably the least balanced economy in todays modern world. This is why Xi and his cohorts are making unprecedented means of securing their supply chain.

China's structurally flawed, narrow-based economic dependency is also why the Chinese government have spend so much unwonted resources to expand their military presence. All the things significant to their supply chain survival must be protected in order to secure their susceptible national interests.

Everything valuable to China's economy surrounds the nation's critical need and must have a stable global supply chain for securing organic materials to import as well as leveraged exporting trade accords. Therefore concluding that China's economy is deep only in manufacturing while narrow every else.

A big reason as to why the Chinese gov has now settled their economic system as reliant on them being an economic bully. At all cost, doesn't matter how or what, China have to preserve their supply chain enable for them to operate with their narrow-based economic system of importing raw materials for their exporting of cheap, finished products. 

Even now, Xi and co. are constantly addressing their weakness of their inherent economic framework towards other nations especially with emerging market nations who don't have overly strong economies as well as third world countries that China has interest in and can easily be manipulated. Hence, the silk road dubbed “One-Belt / One-Road”is intrinsically their economic bully plan to guarantee their long term economic viability in terms of securing their supply chain at whatever cost.

As an experienced trader and investor through various, multiple financial and capital asset classes, IMHO, the reality is with the way China is positioning their investments while structuring a heavily supply chain depended economic model, it would put Xi and his henchmen at an extremely high, unmanageable risk from the effects of global economic contraction.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Posted in: China's 'Silk Road' project runs into debt jam See in context

As full time personal, private institutional macro fundamental investor and technical intrinsic value-based trader like me who trades and invest 7-9 USD figure voluminous transactions through Forex futures & spot, options, bonds, stock indexes, ETFs, commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies and real estate, it's a huge deal to pursue and concatenate closely between the current trade war of US and China.

To discern China's so called "Silk Road" project, one must have a clear comprehension of how fundamentally vulnerable China's economy when it was developed. All the talking heads that portray as experts almost always mentioning about the how strong China's economy is. But people are forgetting how structurally defective their underlying critical architecture of their economic model.

You see, China is indeed strong but only a specific part of their economy which is manufacturing. It never was a denouement of natural economic conditions because economy is/was always a central planning one. Because of this communist controlled style of central planning, the reality is that it was designed from the top down approach.

This engineered method of their economy gives you an eagle's eye view of the big picture in understanding how weak and narrow-based their overall economy really is. A country's economic model is only as robust depending on the infrastructure of the actual nation.

Think for a second of it like this way: If a country like China gets shut off from all other nations, can it sustain or survive? Taking a look at the big picture view, we can fairly assess that economic strength is a factor of the nation(s) capability to have sustenance and aid itself first and foremost. If a country is dependent on other nations who are independent, then that dependent nation is not that strong after all. Therefore, almost everyone doesn't really realize that China is an exorbitantly dependent country.

When Chairman Xi announced the "One-Road/One-Belt" initiative (now banned from in Beijing for discussions); in combination with a imminent trade dispute with Pres. Trump; This was China's stratagem to play because the CCP is aware their economy is very vulnerable simply because of too being dependent only on exports and manufacturing.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Pentagon to cut $300 million in aid to Pakistan See in context

Exceptional as well as remarkably effective by utilizing economic leverage to manage national security involvement.

Pres. Trump's multi-faceted geopolitical compromises is like small gears that connects on a much larger machine. This latest strategy applying to Pakistan has two-fold purpose. The nature of this doctrine is to first hold devious influential connections liable for regional impacts. While at the same also applied to stop any depraved influence from tyrannizing free expression of national values adhered by the acquiescent, enchained citizens within the nation being manipulated.

You see the sub-sequential maneuver will have consequential effects on China who is currently America's top priority economic as well as geopolitical foe. Back sometime in 2017 when Tillerson was the Secretary of State (presently Pompeo) asked Pakistanis involvement to bring Taliban to the table in Afghanistan but the cooperation never materialized.

Enter China, who is Pakistan's top economic confederate and principal investor. When Pres. Trump detached the 900mil financial aid to compel Pakistan towards a political resolution in Afghanistan, China has to come to the its partners aid. Indeed China had formal discussions with the World Bank about a rescue financial package to Pakistan. This strategy forces China to bleed financially in addition to their current trade war with the US.

While $900 million bailout to Pakistan was halted, simultaneously Pres. Trump permitted Defense Secretary Mattis a 300 million financial aid to Pakistan at his discretion if verifiable affirmative steps will be taken by Pakistan. As of today, DOD announces that Pakistan have not change their behavior. Pakistan thinks that China will save the day instead. Therefore Pakistan will bleed China financially dry while at the same Pres. Trump exposes China's indirect involvement with Pakistan's tribal extremist through a disguise method by way of financial bailout.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Obama, Meghan McCain rebuke Trump in tribute to fallen senator See in context

While navigating through the divisive chaos (like the financial markets) that has spread throughout McCain's funeral event, lots of people are forgetting or just don't get it as to why McCain really hated and despised Trump.

This has to do with foreign policy nothing more, nothing less. Period.

The predeterminate induction of accountability upon the primary influence agent is the commonality in all of these foreign policy undertaking.

One must have a very clear awareness towards those nation(s) of influence, that all progressive resolution must conclusively accommodate positive results for burdened people

who have inadequate capability to develop positive influence themselves.

Trump's unorthodox foreign policy implements favorable circumstances for fully-realized national legitimacy. This is such a paradigm shift even amongst in a modern world that's grown habituated to unscrupulous, bribable, debauched financial elites, bankers and globalists who have entrenched a business model by imposing terms to national so called "leaders" they leveraged, influenced and subjugated.

Take out the magnetic influence of these financial/corporate brokers out the equation regarding foreign protocols. What do you think happens? Unanticipatedly these global influence hucksters all of a sudden becomes ineffectually of no value. Devoid their potentiality of administering some type of benefit, then nations no longer will buy into their brokered services.

Eliminating these so called influential broker agents out of the foreign policy equation will no doubt forces national politicians to become transparent and liable to the voices of their citizens. Politicians when they have no choice but represent the voices of their citizens, the credible image of the nation is avowed to surface. Citizens voices and concerns becomes the political driver of national policy.

….And that is why Senator John McCain detested President Trump so much.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

Posted in: Trump aides fret over West Wing vacancies as threats loom See in context

He also acknowledges that Prague story is nonsense.

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/apr/16/robert-mueller-many-news-stories-trump-russia-prob

Steele Dossier contents inside are not exclusive to Christopher Steele. 

Proprietary ownership of the Steele Dossier content is Fusion GPS entities. 

Unknown (mostly like Fusion entities) FBI contractors entities used unlawful FBI FISA-702 searches for political oppo-research.

In April 2016 Mike Rogers, NSA Director at that time, shut it down.

Glen Simpson hired Nellie Ohr in May 2016

Bruce Ohr had database access working inside the DOJ-NSD

Nellie Ohr provided much of the research for the dossier content.

Most of Dossier contents was provided my Nellie Ohr who also applied for a HAM radio license (May 23rd 2016) so her and Chris Steele's communication won't be traced.

Michael Cohen traveling to Prague is inside the Steele Dossier is untrue due to the fact it wasn't the right Michael Cohen.

Link to FISA redacted report

http://imgbox.com/aNxFJqSa

Conspiring entities who did the DOJ/FBI FISA-702 searches on“Michael Cohen Travel”screwed up and simply got the wrong Cohen. Too bad for this error because another connection between unauthorized DOJ/FBI FISA search queries, and people who gained custody of this organic data as well the finished product with fabricated contents within it, the Steele Dossier. A very tangible enough evidence to the connect to dots.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: Trump aides fret over West Wing vacancies as threats loom See in context

No one has bothered to go line by line and prove the dossier false on each statement. But I believe it was found that Michael Cohen didn’t go to Prague.

@Blacklabel

Lanny Davis professes that Steel dossier inside claims are bunch of BS. He also acknowledges that Prague story is nonsense.

http://dailycaller.com/2018/08/22/lanny-davis-michael-cohen-prague/

Sometime in January, CNN confirmed as well that Cohen was never in Prague as stated in the Steele dossier bogus claim.

How the unfounded story got out is one of FBI's equivocal FISA-702 search subject matter named Michael Cohen. The search organic database results showed a person traveling to Prague which supposedly is/was Trump's lawyer.

But the government contractor or whoever entity that somehow gain unauthorized access to the FISA-702 organic data search "about query" gave a return on the wrong guy who is also named Michael Cohen. Whoever that contractor was doing the searching made an error and got the wrong guy. This raw data was passed on Fusion-GPS to compile it to the dossier.

This significant error connects the use of NSA as well as FBI database searches to the intelligence stratagem between multiple parties consisting of Clinton associates through Percoie, to Glen Simpson of Fusion, to Nellie Ohr, to Chris Steele, to Bruce Ohr, to Peter Strzok, to Stefan Halper, to Sally Yates and then finally reconstructed for a FISA surveillance application to be approved by a FISA judge.

Presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer at the FISA courts, profiled that between Nov 2015 - May 2016 of the thousands and thousands of search quaries, she discovered that a staggering amount of 85% of those search queries where illicit and flagitious unauthorized violations in reference to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: Trump vows to 'get involved' if Justice Dep't, FBI don't do their job See in context

Again every president in history has had an attorney general that had their back except for this president and if you want to make the argument that he shouldn’t fire sessions all Republicans a year ago would have agreed with you, now they don’t, they all think it’s time he must go and they all see how this man is just a zombie and won’t do anything even fought with Nunes to not wanting to turn over key documents and this witch investigations needs to come to quick conclusion and the President has the green light to rid himself of this man.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-23/graham-says-he-expects-trump-to-oust-sessions-after-elections

@Bass4Funk

2 significant figureheads in DC recently have positional adjustment regarding for support of Trumps canning of Sessions (high probability after the mid-terms). Chuck Grassley, the Judiciary Chairman as well as surprisingly turning 180 stance none other than McCain's BFF, Lindsey Graham.

Senator Grassley is a key figure surrounding the entire chain of events as well as overseeing confirmation FBI and DOJ processes. I would favor Mike Rogers (former NSA Director) to be the new FBI Director, Rand Paul as the new DNI and DiGenova as Sessions replacement. Very high probability this line up would get results fast.

5 ( +8 / -3 )

Posted in: Xi says China ready to fight 'bloody battle' to regain its rightful place in world See in context

“Secret Empires” by Peter Schweizer

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: Cambridge Analytica CEO claims influence on U.S. election; Facebook questioned See in context

These multinationals were deployed to disrupt industries but have done so with inequitable beneficial leverages. They almost accomplished in ruining industries. For the duration, it is becoming a foreboding peril regarding the transmission of unreservedly power into so few hands which I'm doubtful it won't go unchecked for much longer. With more microscopic regulatory checkup, it will positively overall for better prospects of recovery bounce back in other sectors of the broad-based US economy that is meant to be who were squeezed by the tech giant kings.

With this story, it might be a good time to reconsider reassessing the percentage of weighted long term allocation in the tech sector of investment portfolio or at least trim down in the near term. This could be a catalyst for a bear market distribution and its a big deal for a full time personal, private institutional macro fundamental investor and technical intrinsic value-based trader like me who trades and invest 7-8 USD figure voluminous transactions through forex futures & spot, options, bonds, stock indexes, ETFs, commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies and real estate.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Posted in: Facebook under pressure as U.S., EU urge probes of data practices See in context

Market price often leads fundamental changes. The case of Facebook falling into the cross hairs was a fresh catalyst to precipitate the bearish move in the NASDAQ composite today. This case falls within the significant theme of the enormous tech corps increasing regulatory scrutiny. With the new administration in the WH, the risk of the profoundly bull market sizzling run might be over because of the push for more close examination of regulations of tech conglomerates such as Google, Apple, Netlix, Amazon, Tesla, Uber, AirBnB, Facebook, etc.

These corporations made a killing from a favorable modus operandi of Obama which included supervisory advantages and almost non-existent, unconditional central authority funding (especially in the case of Tesla). As a result, this generated a survival of the fittest backdrop where loss-laden ventures (some with questionable business models) and foundational groups cunningly able to hoard war chests of capital while sidestepping abiding laws. Thus allowing a lot of these tech comps to function without the hindrance of liabilities (in a lot of cases including tax payers money) that weighed down its competitors.

These multinationals were deployed to disrupt industries but have done so with inequitable beneficial leverages. They almost accomplished in ruining industries. For the duration, it is becoming a foreboding peril regarding the transmission of unreservedly power into so few hands which I'm doubtful it won't go unchecked for much longer. With more microscopic regulatory checkup, it will positively overall for better prospects of recovery bounce back in other sectors of the broad-based US economy that is meant to be who were squeezed by the tech giant kings.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: As U.S. opioid crisis grows, Trump calls for death penalty for dealers See in context

So many individuals who end up using, abusing and sometimes dying from these dangerous, harmfully potent drugs started with their well-meaning physician's legal prescriptions. Don't get me wrong, I consider doctors on case by case basis because most of them are caring, decent human beings. But on the other hand, many doctors also do not seem put a lot of thoughts into the long term harmful, negative effects that may occur on their patients.

The current upsurge isn't generally rooted in delinquency but a lot of cases are. Most of the drug issues are predominantly behavioral related matter of contention. Arguments such as scantiness of jobs, family interaction inadequacies, instant gratification cultural imbeddedness, powerlessness to endure minor inconsequential discomforts, easy marijuana accessibility during younger days, parents who also consumes, prescriptions (sometimes unnecessary) from doctors, overindulge and admittance to meds, substantial extensive boost of medicaid/disability, etc and the list goes on and on.

Most rehab programs have been very ineffective to trying to tackle the root cause of these issues. Personal responsibility and accountability, moral integrity, deep value for hard work ethics, family, faith, expansive job creation and availability, etc are good starters. Argumentatively it can be on a case by case for each unique individual because it it so complicated but generally a large contributing factor of drug abuse are characteristics of being immature, dishonest, low self-esteem, depression and probably the most terrifying of them, are the vindictive suicides that throw so many others in suffering and despair.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

Posted in: Trump insists U.S. runs deficit with Canada, statistics notwithstanding See in context

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-12/trump-may-actually-be-right-about-the-trade-deficit-with-canada

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Trump picks camera-proven Kudlow as top economic aide See in context

With the above prior post I've stated in mind, the most significant economic policy around the globe is coming out of the White House. Kudlow's statements will be closely scrutinized by other players around the world because of the essential consequences attached to it in reference to the various capital markets.

It is even a bigger deal for a full time personal, private institutional macro fundamental investor and technical intrinsic value-based trader like me who trades and invest 7-8 USD figure voluminous transactions through forex futures & spot, options, bonds, stock indexes, ETFs, commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies and real estate.

Here are some of Kudlow's comments during the time he was announced as the official head of the White House Economic Council from my own Bloomberg Terminal platform...

https://framapic.org/EMecWf4z3ULC/XrrBELCKK646.jpg

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Trump picks camera-proven Kudlow as top economic aide See in context

Another interesting fact that many people are not aware of was that Obama had also position changes over the 8 years with 4 different people. One of their snafu in economic oversight when the global economies were imploding was to prioritize in handling the healthcare timetable. That was when the world was at the most fragile state in recent times where global growth and stabilization was despairingly needed.

As a result, Bernanke had to do almost all the heavy workload where it should have mattered more at the White House instead of at the Federal Reserve. Bernanke had to continue providing liquidity to stabilize the global credit system and as well other issues through unprecedented monetary means via experimentation of QE. The Fed had to keep printing money out of thin air up to the point where they had to pass the QE baton off to BOJ and ECB.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Posted in: Trump picks camera-proven Kudlow as top economic aide See in context

Honestly the White House communications have been terribly disorganized. That's a fact that cannot be disputed and fair to say the least. It is still undoubtedly questionable with Kudlow in there if it actually going to enhance anything. Kudlow's job is to regularly advocate Trump's economic program with just a bit more frequency, positive, consistent flavor is my expectations for his position. Well the more I think about it, Kudlow as solid as his economic credentials are, might be better off as a PR spokesperson.

Due to the US economy's floundering state in the past 10 years or so, Kudlow's duty is in the the spotlight of being a high profile position in reference to Trump's growth focus policies. Interesting enough to note that during Obama's time, his lead advisors were meagerly known heads compare to Goldman Sach's Cohn who's been under the current administration.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Posted in: EU slams trade 'bullies' as Trump row deepens See in context

As Commerce secretary Ross stated many times that economic security is national security to the US. Economy connects every broad based sector that US economy is built upon. Whether it will be welfare, defense, healthcare, education, financial, etc., the economy is the heart of it all that connects everything. To secure America is to secure the State's economy. If the economy falters so does everything around it collapses also. There is a strategy behind all of this chaos where trillions are at stake here folks.

The world's trade players are fully aware 3-4+ decades of America's trade deals have ended up with enormous massive export of U.S. luxury by way of manufacturing gains as well as jobs within other

nations. The country's underpriviliged middle-class were the losers from the ineffective trade policies by the past administrations but instead all the financial rewards went to the multinational corps and banks as well as of course Wall Street.

So if you reverse engineer the multi decades of failed processes from prior trade policies that had the obvious outcome of export and redistribution of America's wealth... what will happen?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: EU slams trade 'bullies' as Trump row deepens See in context

Cecilia Malmstroem and Jean-Claude Juncker are not the real decision makers here. More like these 2 officials are the EU's PR cheerleaders. As a trader/investor, I would only really looked at and listen to what German Chancellor Angela Merkel would do against Trump with these issues. UK and the EU slap tariffs on China's steel about less than a couple years ago or so to save their own butt. I don't buy the EU retaliation thing. EU bureaucrats are just trying to save face to look like they are actually trying to fight back against the bully Trump as the MSM is clearly trying to portray. Forget about retaliation because they won't. There trillions and trillions at stake here in regards to the powerhouse Germany's point of view. There is more to this story than meets the eye.

You see, the one of the biggest market risk at moment is the uncertainty of Brexit terms. More so than Trump's tariffs fulminations at the moment. Currently UK is still at the stage of expounding their conditions. At the same time with all the current formalizing negotiations, Germany has another important issue to address regarding the revenue shortfall. Presently, Britain with about 2.5 USD trillion economy pays roughly 1 billion on a monthly basis to Brussels. This will stop, so EU which is mainly Germany has to discover a way to make up for the billions in taxes lost revenue.

So with this problem, Brexit's 2.5 trillion decreases EU's GDP overall. Merkel's weakened political party as well as attaching her economy to the comprehensive Paris Treaty's environmental regulations (though she's trying to cut down those regs), from a economically logical standpoint, she cannot and will not try to dispute Trump. Getting cut off to the US market's access is a very high risk, low reward that Merkel cannot afford. So in the end, in my opinion Juncker comment about the stupid with stupid thing was not the smartest thing to say because after all this is very hypocritical of him. EU just like any other exporting and manufacturing countries are as protectionist as you can get. So Merkel understands this more than the rest of them as she knows simply they cannot sustain going toe to toe against America on trade.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Kuroda's tough task: Navigating the long road toward stimulus exit See in context

The other significant market chart that also the BOJ is paying close attention to in order to gauge global investors psychological perpectives ie. fear is the VIX. This is where the other part of the unofficial dual mandate by the BOJ plays the part, which is global price stability.

https://framapic.org/fRyFESTS2gDY/t8b0t2TAjTfn.jpg

It's not an actual volatility, as might be calculated by the distribution of data from its mean. VIX is an implied volatility of the biggest stock market in the world, the SnP 500 index. Implied vol more than anything references the level of certainty that market makers and liquidity providers have or don't have about the future. 

A liquidity provider/market maker prices the option with some equitable inputs as money managers makes decision to call for an option hedge against probable drawback in stocks. This abstract but substantial variable is called implied volatility. When emerging of uncertainty arises, the implied volatility value includes a (periodically considerably healthy) premium over actual volatility. To put it simply, if you're a market maker/liquidity provider and you think there is significant risk emerging for a (as an example) a sharp downturn in stocks, you will nick the purchaser of that protection more, similar to what an insurance company would rate a client a bit more for the homeowner's policy in an area more likely to see earthquakes, floods, or typhoons. And they hastily will boost the insurance premium if they are uncomfortable by the risk of a violent downward action in stocks.

With that in mind, there have been some violent spikes in implied vol in the last 10 years or so. Pessimistic emotion and psychology by various market players are almost always temporarily short-term. Optimistic outward looking in the big picture is almost always as better bet overall.

In fact, VIX has been back to historic lows in volatility even with all the chaos happening throughout the world by seeing plenty of risks and crises. Big contributing part of this, is that central banks have been standing by, throughout this critical period, intervening to restore stability. But central banks help is slowly disappearing, if not probably will end fairly soon. Monetary stimulus driven economy will be handing down the economic growth baton to a fiscal stimulus and structural reform driven economy. This for sure, as a result of torch passing will create more and new higher vol environment than we've seen over the last 10 years or so in the stock markets.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

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