Waywardnihon comments

Posted in: Tokyo reports 831 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 5,705 See in context

Sure, maybe there'll be another "spike" in the future, but with everyone vaccinated, it really won't make a difference anymore.

Its extremely poor taste to infer that the deaths consequent on spikes 'don't make a difference'. I am sure you wouldn't say that regarding a severe flu season.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 1,067 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 7,212 See in context

Nah, this is the 21st day in a row that numbers were lower than the week before, with no lockdown and minimal restrictions. I think we're ok making positive comments now.

I understand the deep need for some positive news, however this short term view of the pandemic is what has consistently led to wave after wave of record breaking numbers. The aim should be succesively smaller waves, so perhaps its prudent to wait to pop the champange until the numbers drop below prewave base (if they in fact do).

1 ( +9 / -8 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 2,539 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 16,738 See in context

As has been pointed out by the most astute voices echoing in the void that is the JT comment section in the downswing of every wave since last July, these lower numbers can only mean thay corona has been completed defeated and we can return to prepandemic life. I mean, eventually this repetitive drivel has to be right, instead of exactly the thinking that has led to successively worse waves with higher death rates. Right?

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 3,081 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 19,312 See in context

Things are not getting worse.

Unless you live outside Tokyo Metro.

5 ( +11 / -6 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 4,228 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 24,321 See in context

If that example is true, then it is an example of incompetence. However there is no evidence that the government in league with prefectures and medical institutes is concealing case numbers or deaths as claimed multiple times by various posters here

Absolutely. I agree that these is unlikely to be any widespread conspiracies, on either end of the spectrum, at play in this pandemic. However, the compound effect of gross incompetence such as those examples, along with these further examples:

The father of the 3 year old was advised by the same doctor that as he was no symptomatic, he did not need a test. The father insisted he be tested, and the doctor actually told him he would be negative. He was confirmed positive this evening.

I am a teacher who had close contact with the 3 year old, and sought to be tested. I was unable to contact my local 保健所 (government health office) - twice the line was engaged, the third time they simple did not pick up. I was eventually tested by directly contacting a local clinic with a competent doctor.

It adds up.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 4,228 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 24,321 See in context

Can anyone provide any evidence that the government is concealing case numbers please?

Only anecdotal evidence of incompetence, but this week I know of:

A doctor who refused to test a symptomatic one year old child, whose mother and three year old sister both teated positive, on the basis that one year olds could not contract covid, and;

A 保健所 (government health office) which advised the preschool of that 3 year old that none of the teachers nor students she had spent 8+ hours a day with last week are close contacts, do not need testing, and that the parents of other students should not be told of the positive result.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 4,220 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 21,570 See in context

The 24th (today), 23rd, 21st and 20th had positive numbers LOWER than the week before.

I believe you are referring to Tokyo Metros numbers, while Zoroto is speaking to national figures. Out of curiousity, did you also mean Tokyo specifically when you talked about the wave? Personally, in a small island nation with minimal municipal or prefectural differentation, let alone borders to speak of, I dont think we can really consider Tokyo severable to such a degree as to declare its covid situation independent of wider Japan.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 4,220 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 21,570 See in context

We should be back to pre-spike levels around early September-ish.

Bold prediction. Should it prove false, I wonder if you will be willing to admit it, unlike several others who have proclaimed 'the final wave' since February.

17 ( +20 / -3 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 2,447 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 16,841 See in context

Much higher cases, less of an increase in severe cases and hardly any higher deaths.

So much gaslighting...

To clarify, based on yesterdays numbers:

Active cases:

640% increase on last month

(33006 increasing to 211710)

Severe cases:

430% increase on last month

(431 increasing to 1896)


380% increase on last month

(9 increasing to 34)

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 2,447 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 16,841 See in context

Much higher cases, less of an increase in severe cases and hardly any higher deaths.

So much gaslighting...

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Posted in: Lockdowns or vaccines? NZ, Australia, Japan try diverging paths See in context

Frankly New Zealand has outperformed Japan and most other nations throughout the pandemic. Through the use of short term, decisive and severe lockdowns, most New Zealands have enjoyed a greater amount of time living 'normally' or much closer to it than the perpetual SoEs and half measures here over the last year and a half. Furthermore, its response has to date been highly effective from a public health perspective, greatly limiting deaths. And the economic impact has likewise been roughly the same as most other nations, if not less in many cases thanks to the domestic stimulus engendered by 6 months of 0 cases. Finally, I am confident that faced with a mutated strain, NZ has a far greater chance to make appropriate changes to its strategy to deal with it as opposed to the government here.

Ultimately, we will not know who 'won' (as this article and most posters before me seem to imply is the point) covid until the end of this pandemic.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 4,566 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 15,753 See in context

We see surging cases but deaths remain low as do severe cases comparing to pre vaccine times.

While deaths do remain low at this stage, severe cases, both for the Tokyo Metro area and nationally, are no longer low compared to 'pre-vaccine times'; in fact, they are both approaching record numbers (160 for Tokyo, 1413 nationally).

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports record 3,177 coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 9,576 See in context

Today marks two weeks since new active cases began trending into positive integers, and one week since severe cases did the same, nationally. Based upon prior waves statistics, we can expect to see a corresponding increase in deaths within a week or so.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 830 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,386 See in context

My opinion: Predictably, the virus is continuing to behave as it has for the entire pandemic. Unfortunately, the vaccination effort has emboldened those calling for the abandonment of the already meagre mitigation efforts already in place. As was pointed out here previously, vaccination is not a magical silver bullet. It will impact the viruses spread slowly over time, however simultaneously variants will result in setbacks. The failure to launch a comprehensive and effective set of practices to mitigate the virus and distribute vaccines mean Japan has many months if not more than a year of work ahead.

Finally, while vaccines will help, they are not magical barriers and we still require other mitigation, as the below article illustrates:


6 ( +8 / -2 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 502 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,506 See in context

However the assumption the next wave must higher does not factor in the vaccination rollout. I think we all agree it's been slow (putting it nicely), however they predict all over 65's to be fully vaccinated by the end of July. With that being the most vulnerable group making up the majority of the deaths and a large part of the population here, we should not be seeing a repeat of those number of deaths, if the vaccines work.

To br fair, I am not assuming the next wave will be higher, only pointing out that the current decline in deaths does indeed fit with the existing statistical wave model, irregardless of vaccinations. Therefore, while there may be an impact on future waves, I don't think we can currently assume the figures have been impacted based purely on retrospective statistics, which is what the original post implied.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 502 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,506 See in context

Sounds scary Jim! Better take a look at the bigger picture, to see where we're are heading!

Im loathe to point out your remarkably limited concept of bigger picture yet again, but lets actually look at, say, more than the down swing of a single wave. Maybe one year...

11th July 2020 = 0 deaths

11th Aug 2020 = 6 deaths

11th Sept 2020 = 12 deaths

11th Oct 2020 = 2 deaths

11th Nov 2020 = 11 deaths

11th Dec 2020 = 51 deaths

11th Jan 2021 = 48 deaths

11th Feb 2021 = 77 deaths

11th March 2021 = 45 deaths

11th April 2021 = 18 deaths

11th May 2021 = 113 deaths

11th June 2021 = 55 deaths 

11th July 2021 =  6 deaths 

oh... ever worsening waves...

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 896 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,246 See in context

This is a very good point. A good start will be to compare where we were this time last month:

Indeed, but why stop there! How about 6 months ago:


4th = 43 deaths

5th = 32 deaths

6th = 20 deaths

7th = 47 deaths


4th = 56 deaths

5th = 64deaths

6th = 72 deaths

7th = 66 deaths

Or how about a year ago?

JUNE 2020:

4th = 4 deaths

5th = 7 deaths

6th = 2 deaths

7th = 0 deaths

JULY 2020:

4th = 0 deaths

5th = 0 deaths

6th = 1 deaths

7th = 2 deaths

How odd. It's almost as if COVID death statistics follow some kind of wave pattern. I wonder if it correlates to the similar pattern observed in cases? Let's see:


Date where upward trend in active cases (into positive figures) can be observed: 23 June 2020

Date where upward trend in deaths can be observed: 31 July 2020


Date where upward trend in active cases (into positive figures) can be observed: 22 October 2020

Date where upward trend in deaths can be observed: 11 November 2020


Date where upward trend in active cases (into positive figures) can be observed: 10 March 2021

Date where upward trend in deaths can be observed: 13 April 2021

My god... it's almost as if the number of deaths increases between two to four weeks after the active cases start to trend into positive figures. Fortunately, due to vaccination and positive thinking as espoused here, that can't happen again right. However, let's check the trend for active cases over the last three Tuesdays (because this is the latest available data I have), just to be safe:

22 JUNE 2021: - 603 active cases, -51 serious cases

29 JUNE 2021: - 372 Active cases, -10 serious cases

6 JULY 2021: - 316 active cases, -1 serious case

Not as encouraging as one might hope. Of course, we shouldn't assume that this virus will continue to behave exactly as it has done for the entire pandemic. I am sure those contributors who, once again in the lull of a wave on decline, have declared victory have solid, statistical analysis beyond comparing one month's or better yet one day's figures.

9 ( +10 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 673 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,751 See in context

Honestly, if you ignore all the conspiratorial thinking and just take a macro look at the reported statistics since the beginning of the pandemic, the Japanese model has failed. Every wave peaks higher and leads to a higher total in the trough, whether looking at cases or deaths. It has never improved, and focusing on the number difference between peaks and troughs is misleading.

I genuinely hope vaccinations will break this pattern, but there is no statistic evidence that this has happened or is happening in Japan.

I suggest toyokezai to see the overall trend from early last year.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 376 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,308 See in context

At that rate, it will take a further 27 days to administer enough doses for another 10% of the population.

What? How big do you think Japan's population is? Because your math is wrong

(961,404 x 27) / 2 = 12978954

12978954 x 10 = 129 Million, aka the population of Japan

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 376 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,308 See in context

We are actually in the trough after the 4th wave which was smaller than the 3rd wave.

This wave was smaller in the sense that it occured over a shorter time frame, however it was more severe generally. The third wave saw roughly 278000 new cases in the three months between 12/01 and 03/01, whereas this new wave has seen almost the same (268000) in two months. It has also had a higher average mortality. Fortunately, it has peaked sooner, likely thanks to new laws being passed relating to enforcement of SoE measures. However, the trough baseline has not yet returned to prewave levels, and if it does not then I think there is no basis to conclude that this signifies a improvement.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 351 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,022 See in context

Personally, my concern is that with every wave in Japan, preventative measures are consistently relaxed or disregarded before the reported numbers return to a base level seen before that wave began, leaving aside any aspersions regarding that reporting. We are already seeing it with this SoE, despite the fact the national figure is roughly double that of the baseline following the New Year SoE. Vaccination is still far too low, and public exhaustion too high, to mitigate another wave if measures are abandoned now and we will see another, higher wave. Those infections and resultant deaths, just as they have been in previous waves, are preventable and if it occurs, are negligently caused by mismanagement in my opinion.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 487 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 3,036 See in context

Does anyone have a link to the mortality in Japan data for 2020? I don't mean reporting on the data, but the actual data itself (for example, https://www.e-stat.go.jp). I can only find datasets for 2014 at the latest, which means these claims regarding mortality are unprovable either way. I do believe the reporting of a decline in total deaths, however that really doesn't give enough info.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 471 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,643 See in context

The numbers are indeed falling, hospital cases and deaths confirm the low numbers and the good news.

Relative to what? I understand your protestations against various conspiracy theories regarding reporting. However, viewing the pandemic period as a whole in Japan, it is clear that it has been a continuing trend of waves with higher peaks, followed by troughs with higher baselines, whatever metric you use. Vaccination is undoubtedly an important intervention against that, but there is no evidence that is impacting it yet.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 743 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 4,536 See in context

They've just changed category criteria for severely sick patients.

コロナ重症者1413人に 国の集計変更で119人増


To clarify, they haven't changed the criteria for severely sick patients. The national criteria has always been those patients in ICU beds or on assisted breathing (ECMO/ventilators). Osaka and Kobe were reporting under more restrictive local criteria, which excluded ICU patients. MHW has now started counting them under national criteria.

On a related note, the Tokyo figures are also based on the local criteria which only includes those on assisted breathing apparatus.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan to impose 10-day quarantine on travelers from India, 5 other countries See in context

Sorry, but unless they are citizens or permanent residents they should be barred

In fact, according to the article it seems even PRs are banned:

As Japan has already banned the entry of foreign nationals, including those with resident status, who have been to those countries within the past two weeks, except under special circumstances, the measure primarily effects Japanese citizens.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan to impose 10-day quarantine on travelers from India, 5 other countries See in context

I wonder how Japanese people will feel in the future when the Tokyo variant is the new scary strain circulating. While it make sense to be wary of travel from areas with emergent strains, the complete failure to contain and trace the virus domestically, combined with repeated xenophobic rhetoric and botched vaccine program, is certainly setting this up to happen.

12 ( +12 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 969 new coronavirus cases; record high 529 in Hokkaido See in context

He was just extremely unlucky

He was unable to access medical care and treatment due to the overstressed health system. That is not just unlucky, and to act as if it was an immutable, inescapable whim of the universe is frankly offensive, negligent and makes you culpable.

As an aside, can you provide news stories for the official 21 deaths reported in the 20-39 age bracket in Japan as of 5 May 2021 according to Toyokezai:


5 ( +5 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 879 new coronavirus cases; 1,057 in Osaka See in context

The number of infected people hospitalized with severe symptoms in Tokyo is 63, unchanged from Saturday, health officials said. The nationwide figure is a record high 1,050, up 30 from Saturday, surpassing the previous high of 1,043 on Jan 26.

I notice that people still mistake this figure as representing all hospitalizations, when in fact it only refers to those receiving ECMO or on ventilators (i.e. those who cannot breath independently). There are scores of others hospitalized who do not yet reach this standard.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 828 new coronavirus cases; 1,231 in Osaka See in context

Well been a while since I was here... Just wanted to weigh in in response to those same users who appear to be making the same arguments a year later in support of the Japan model...

Surely, you can admit that, irregardless of whether you believe the virus is just like the flu, or that fatal cases are of no concern due to demographics, or that Japan has lower numbers in comparison to other cherry picked nations, you can see by pure statistics that the situation has continually, and continues now, gotten worse. It has never gotten better here, just bigger waves, followed by bigger baselines. In addition, there has been a failure to implement an effective vaccine distribution, particular before entirely predictably mutations and variant strains emerged. There is no metric by which the Japan model can be called successful.

No one blames you; you are not responsible for the failure. And you can still like Japan and want to live here. But at least be intellectually honest enough to drop the inexplicable support for this particular CF.

13 ( +13 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan set to extend state of emergency for up to another month See in context

I’m curious to know how much amplification is used in the PCR test in Japan. Is this the only way “cases” are being corroborated. If so then until a chest X-ray is taken they are still only suspected cases.

I have been PCR tested twice, at a hospital, when presenting with fever. On both occasions I was also given a chest x-ray. Both times I was negative.

You can't have it both ways. If you defend the current testing regime on the basis of its narrow focus on symptomatic individuals, as many here do, you can't also claim that most of those symptomatic patients who test positive are false positives

2 ( +3 / -1 )

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