Waywardnihon comments

Posted in: Japan set to extend state of emergency for up to another month See in context

I’m curious to know how much amplification is used in the PCR test in Japan. Is this the only way “cases” are being corroborated. If so then until a chest X-ray is taken they are still only suspected cases.

I have been PCR tested twice, at a hospital, when presenting with fever. On both occasions I was also given a chest x-ray. Both times I was negative.

You can't have it both ways. If you defend the current testing regime on the basis of its narrow focus on symptomatic individuals, as many here do, you can't also claim that most of those symptomatic patients who test positive are false positives

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Posted in: Cabinet OKs bills to penalize people who do not comply with antivirus measures See in context

Well, so much for the "constitutionality" argument against lock downs. It was always false, but not it is demonstrably false.

Please point out where there is a lockdown in Japan?

You are confusing many things

They are not locking anyone down or in.

The government can mandate closing times, that does not affect anyone's rights as it is a business.

As for forcing people into hospital that again falls under protecting other from harm

Figure it out very different things.

It is painfully obvious from your use of language that you haven't read the constitution, nor have any legal training, so this will probably go over your head.

There hasn't been a lockdown in Japan, a decision which has often been described as based on constitutionality, primarily under article 13, which guarantees ****life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

As I have commented before, the constitution limits individual rights with the phrase to the extent that it does not interfere with the public welfare. As you may call it protecting others from harm. The same constitution vest sole power to legislate and provide for public welfare with the elected government.

The same logic follows for allowing lockdowns as for forcing hospitalisations. Both can be predicated on protecting the public welfare, and in fact as the number of infected increase, a lockdown arguable has a lesser impact on individual rights (albeit to a wider group of individuals).

I expect you will reply. I wont, because you don‘t really know what you are talking about. I actually support a lockdown. However, if we are not doing it, I would prefer it is not predicated on spurious arguments.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: Pandemic raises Japan's suicide rate after decade of decline See in context

Death by Covid in 2020 - 3,460

Death by suicide in 2020 - 20,919

Death by Covid in 2019 - 0

Death by suicide in 2019 - 20169

Death by Covid in first 21 days of 2021 - 1370

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Posted in: Cabinet OKs bills to penalize people who do not comply with antivirus measures See in context

Well, so much for the "constitutionality" argument against lock downs. It was always false, but not it is demonstrably false.

As for all the arm-chair freedom fighters and legal eagles above, you clearly haven‘t bothered to read the bill, nor have any working knowledge of legislative interpretation. Settle down.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 2,392 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 7,882 See in context

1,475.

That's the covid-19 death toll for Japan for December 7th through January 7th.

30% of the total death toll for Japan in a single month.

And there are still people here dismissing the virus and fearmongering over economic impact. For some reason, they look at other nations and feel that, rather than acting as grim portents of a very real possibility for Japan's near future, they somehow justify burying their heads in the sand.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 1,278 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 4,883 See in context

7 Day Average Deaths per day:

Nov 5: 8

Dec 5: 30

Jan 5: 50

The usual daily commentators here:

Deaths arent going up. Its just the flu. Im not locking down for noone.

Your arguments have been conclusively proven wrong. You have no credibility.

5 ( +13 / -8 )

Posted in: Japan to suspend Go To Travel campaign for whole country from Dec 28-Jan 11 See in context

There is nothing to celebrate, you should be disappointed this situation continues, not happy it didn't work out

And you should be apologising for the months and months of encouraging reckless behaviour and promoting dubious and false information which has allowed for the failed strategy and for the situation to continue.

I agree, schadenfreude is not an attractive quality, but it is those who failed to take the virus seriously and actively promoted a chevalier attitude who are responsible for the situation now, not those protested the clearly inadequate response in Japan.

5 ( +9 / -4 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 305 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,667 See in context

What exactly is the definition of "severe symptoms"?

For Tokyo Metro it is defined as requiring a ventilator or ECMO.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Posted in: 2,796 new cases of coronavirus reported in Japan; 572 in Tokyo See in context

Over 100,000 people die of pneumonia every year in Japan.

Covid19 2500 so far.

These vague comparisons are ill founded and uncited.

Looking at an actual comparison over the same period, in the same conditions, I recommend the following site, based on the American experience:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

6 ( +9 / -3 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 352 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,174 See in context

It is bemusing to see people constantly bemoaning the reporting here as inadequate because it lacks this statistic or that statistic, where they have clearly been able to access that information somewhere to make the claim. If anyone is using JT as their sole source of Covid information in Japan, I fear the issue is far worse than simple not reporting the number of hospitalisations. Personally I recommend this site for a comprehensive data set:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 299 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,522 See in context

wake me up when the average age of deaths isn't in the mid 80s with 2 or more co-morbidities and the death rate is no longer falling.

I think you overslept because none of those are true...

6 ( +12 / -6 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 533 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,518 See in context

Of course not...Tokyo test numbers will be dutifully kept under 10,000 as usual. J-govt promised 60,000 to 200,000 tests per day months ago....

To fair the number of tests nationally has significantly increased. Personally, I agree the number is insufficient.

Great news! In recent days the number of infected people hospitalized with severe symptoms in Tokyo has steadily gone down.

Unfortunately, nationally severe cases are still steadily rising.

2 ( +7 / -5 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 500 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,434 See in context

That statement is after the nationwide data, so I'm guessing that the 19 deaths are nationwide, and not just Tokyo. Does anybody know???

It is the national total

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 500 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,434 See in context

I wish stories would tell us who these infected cases are. Not their names, but where they got infected. For example, were workers living in a dorm, members of a sports club, one of the groups partying on yakatabune that I have seen sailing along the river past my place every night for the past two weeks.

Some local authorities report data on tracing, fot example my city. Most infections appear to family transmission here.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan, China restart reciprocal business travel See in context

Because their Japanese and Japanese citizens can not be refused entry under any circumstances according to the constitution

Citation? Because upon reading the constitution no such right is guaranteed. Nor does it prohibit lockdowns. In fact, the Constitution does state that human rights shall be subject to the public welfare, which pandemic prevention would qualify as.

Article 12. The freedoms and rights guaranteed to the people by this Constitution shall be maintained by the constant endeavor of the people, who shall refrain from any abuse of these freedoms and rights and shall always be responsible for utilizing them for the public welfare.

Article 13. All of the people shall be respected as individuals. Their right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness shall, to the extent that it does not interfere with the public welfare, be the supreme consideration in legislation and in other governmental affairs.

Of course, as with any foundational document, its application in real life is up to the interpretation of the courts. But it is simple incorrect to hide behind the Constitution.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 311 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,425 See in context

So? What are the resulting deaths from the “skyrocketing” cases?

In the week ending Sunday, November 29th, there were 138 Covid-19 related deaths reported in Japan, making it the second deadliest week (Mon-Sun period) of the pandemic, after the week ending Sunday, May 3rd (144).

Of further note, the peak number of daily cases reported during the first wave was April 10th (708), while the peak for daily deaths during the first wave was May 8th (49). Similarly, during the second wave, cases peaked on August 7th (1595), whereas deaths peaked on September 4th (19). Serious case numbers split the difference, peaking roughly 2-3 weeks after cases, and roughly one week before deaths. Based on these trends, we can expect deaths to continue to rise for 1-3 weeks after the case number begins to fall.

Source: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Situation Report in Japan (toyokeizai.net)

how many deaths are reported today? just asking as want to figure %

There were 14,384 reported this week in Japan, making the CFR roughly 0.95% for this week. However, if as above, mortality trails case positivity rate by roughly 2 weeks, then calculating using case positivity for 2 weeks ago (10058 cases) gives CFR of roughly 1.37%.

Is there a reason why the most vulnerable age group 60s to 90s are not given ?

The link in the story offers data for all age groups.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 481 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 2,501 See in context

Took a quick look at the deaths graph. Peak averages for this month looks about a little less to about the same compared to the peak averages last aug- Sept.

Not sure what exactly you mean by peak averages. Firstly, it is not possible to identify the peak of the wave until there is a downward trend. Secondly, the peak date for deaths on the second/summer wave was September 4th, with 19 deaths. There have been two days this month which exceed that, the 19th and 25th. Finally, the moving average now is around the same as the peak time in the last wave, although if the correlation between the case rate and mortality is similar to previous waves, it will trail the case rate by roughly 2 weeks.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 401 new coronavirus cases See in context

Plus, the vast majority who actually show any symptoms at all are experiencing mild to moderate ones. That leaves most people who have the virus in their system at all are asymptomatic. This is not to detract from the people who have serious symptoms or pass away - I can't find info on comorbidities, but the link below indicates almost everyone who has died has been aged 70+, and most of them 80+ - around the average life expectancy.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

Of the 2000 reported covid-19 deaths in Japan on TK to date, 1592, or around 79.1%, have been aged 70 or above. While that is a majority, I think it is unfair to characterize it as "almost everyone".

While I am not aware of any data on co-morbidities with regard to Japan, the CDC does have a very informative page with regard to US cases at:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

That is, the recovery rate is rising, and the death rate is falling

The 'death rate' you are referring to is the CFR I assume, as the mortality rate per capita, as well as the raw number of deaths per day, are, in fact, rising according to your own cited source, TK:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

And in any case, they don't want to see a country economically crippled and their children and grandchildren suffer to save a relatively tiny number of older people who are close to the end.

Well, to be fair, even two essentially back to back world wars and the great depression didn't leave countries "economically crippled" for three generations, so it is a bit dramatic to imagine any of the current pandemic measures are some sort of economic doomsday.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan not planning to shut schools despite surge in virus cases See in context

Previously I decided to bow out of this comment section as I came to regard it as a futile endeavour. However, as I continue my effort to stay informed regard covid-19 internationally, I have discovered several useful resources which I want to share. I hope these will provide data which commentators may reference when expressing their views so as provide more salient and well supported arguments:

CDC: this page lists all covid-19 deaths by age and gender, as well as by comorbidity including influenza, in the US:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

TK: this page sources data from across Japan to provide in depth data as to the situation here, including breakdowns by age and prefecture:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

Stop Covid: this site provides hospitalization data for all Japan based on prefectural reporting:

https://www.stopcovid19.jp/

Tokyo: this site contains data on the Tokyo Metro area situation:

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Estat: This is the official portal for the government statistics in Japan. It is useful for data relating to previous years and non-covid causes of death, although as data is tabulated annually, there is limited data for 2020:

https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en

WHO: factsheets provided by the WHO across all monitored health issues. This is useful when reference other diseases mortality rates in previous years etc.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets

8 ( +8 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 186 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,205 See in context

Previously I decided to bow out of this comment section as I came to regard it as a futile endeavour. However, as I continue my effort to stay informed regard covid-19 internationally, I have discovered several useful resources which I want to share. I hope these will provide data which commentators may reference when expressing their views so as provide more salient and well supported arguments:

CDC: this page lists all covid-19 deaths by age and gender, as well as by comorbidity including influenza, in the US:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

TK: this page sources data from across Japan to provide in depth data as to the situation here, including breakdowns by age and prefecture:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

Stop Covid: this site provides hospitalization data for all Japan based on prefectural reporting:

https://www.stopcovid19.jp/

Tokyo: this site contains data on the Tokyo Metro area situation:

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Estat: This is the official portal for the government statistics in Japan. It is useful for data relating to previous years and non-covid causes of death, although as data is tabulated annually, there is limited data for 2020:

https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en

WHO: factsheets provided by the WHO across all monitored health issues. This is useful when reference other diseases mortality rates in previous years etc.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 374 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,685 See in context

This will be my last post here, as I have come to the conclusion, based on seeing the same comments repeated over multiple articles despite evidence clearly presented to the contrary, along with the consistent references to conspiracies, and data frequently misrepresented or misinterpreted (whether intentionally or through lack of understanding) that this site is purely yelling into the void. This is non-partisan and falls on both sides of the issues surrounding covid-19.

I would highly recommend getting your data from multiple sources, preferably from non-profit institutions and government agencies. Good luck to everyone in these trying times.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Posted in: Japan not in situation to declare state of emergency over COVID-19, Suga says See in context

this virus has most likely claimed people who would have otherwise died in a more severe flu season if you compare flu seasons over several years and follow the trends in peaks and troughs.

While influenza and covid-19 share co-morbidities, it is disingenuous to compare the mortality rate for covid-19 in 2020 to influenza mortality in previous years due to the material difference in preventative measures taken globally in 2020. In fact, these measures have likewise critically impacted the influenza mortality rate for 2020. This is a variation on the specious argument that because the preventative measures are working, they are unnecessary.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Posted in: Japan to keep event attendance cap until February See in context

This seems to be causing outcry here... In fact, sizable clusters have recently been reported within foreign communities across the country (e.g. Gifu, Saitama, Tochigi, Ibaraki, etc.). That is just a fact, and the phenomenon is more conspicuous in terms of cluster size and rapid growth. The public notice is thus valid.

Do you have a citation for reporting on these clusters, preferable with case numbers? Japanese is fine.

The 'foreign' population in Japan is around 2.9 million, or 2.3% of the total population. Translating that to covid-19 cases, that would be around 2500 cases proportionally (of the total 111000ish).

I cannot find any data as to nationalities in the covid reporting, so I don't know if 'foreigners' constitute disproportionately more cases, but I would hope that such data is readily available if government officials are claiming that certain groups are problematic.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Posted in: Japan sees near-record 1,547 coronavirus cases in possible 3rd wave See in context

It has taken nearly a year for the virus to infect 50 million people worldwide. That is less than 1% of the population. And of that 50 million, about 2% are fatalities.

I can't advise you as to your emotional state, but factually speaking those statistics make Covid-19 the number one single infectious cause of death globally, far outstripping the previous number one cause in 2019 (TB). Again, that is with the unparalleled global response.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Posted in: Japan sees near-record 1,547 coronavirus cases in possible 3rd wave See in context

Wayward, well I would say at least greater than the current rate of 0.1% of all deaths. Is that reasonable?

So that would exclude homicide, suicide, road deaths, and all other transmissible diseases (HIV, TB, Influenza, measles, etc.). It would also exclude infant mortality entirely.

As we have been doing for covid for the previous 10 months, we take measures to minimise all the above to achieve low mortality rates. It is specious and circular to argue that because those measures are successful, they are unwarranted

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Posted in: Japan sees near-record 1,547 coronavirus cases in possible 3rd wave See in context

 It sounds cold, but only 5-10 fatalities a day is nothing in a country the size of Japan. If you look at the statistics, nearly 4,000 people die every day anyway.

What proportion of total deaths must a single cause be before we deem it worthy of taking action to prevent?

 The virus will burn through the population, as viruses tend to do. 

I assume this is an argument for natural herd immunity. Which virus has this been achieved with?

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Posted in: Japan sees near-record 1,547 coronavirus cases in possible 3rd wave See in context

Nishimura, however, said the government will step up measures to prevent a wider spread of the virus as "the trend of increase is becoming conspicuous."

Poor choice of words as it implies that the government is only concerned with the appearance of an increase and how noticeable it is, rather than actually dealing with the problem. Also, becoming conspicuous? The upward trend has been apparent for around 2 weeks and mirrors previous 'waves'. Again, it is just being reported now so the government is concerned with the public opinion.

Most likely, many people are going to stop going out to eat the next few weeks and cases will then start to fall. Arguably this is worse for restaurants as they lose customers without receiving support.

Exactly, and this seems to be a conscious, strategic decision by the government. The early, more interventionist measures received a lot of backlash, and in August the wave was brought down almost entirely on the back of individual action. In Japan there is a cultural sensibility toward uniform action, so perhaps the government can get away with it. Really, whether it is a successful strategy, both in terms of public health and the economy, will only be obvious after the pandemic ends and we can compare the overall effects. Regardless, we lowly commenters are bound to live with whatever they decide and do our best

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 157 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 779 See in context

Prediction: Within two weeks, Japan will break its national cases per day record (1595).

4 ( +9 / -5 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 242 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,123 See in context

Nationwide, the number of reported cases rose to 1,123. After Tokyo, the prefectures with the highest numbers were Osaka (169), Hokkaido (115), Saitama (114), Aichi (82), Hyogo (49), Chiba (42), Kyoto (24) and Okinawa (21).

The day with the highest reported cases nationwide in Japan was August 7, with 1595 cases. Will this new trend upward beat that record?

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 269 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 1,024 See in context

First day national cases has surpassed 1000 since August 21, driven primarily by increased incidences in Hokkaido, Aichi and Osaka, with upward trends also occuring in Miyagi, Shizuoka, Nara, Hyogo and Okayama. Statistically, the national situation mirrors late June and July where cases began rising prior to the August spike. Trends in serious cases and deaths are likewise trending up.

Time will tell, but for those who dismissed concerns about unfettered travel and resumption of full economic activities, this was what people were concerned about. I also think the focus on Tokyo is not helpful.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

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