Waywardnihon comments

Those are official Government statistics!

Hey Rob,

Can you provide a citation or link for the data sets. I have never been able to find adequate government statistics for average age of death, preexisting conditions, or other data points you mention. I have used Toyokeizai which puports to be aggregate reporting of data sourced from official goverment numbers, however as it doesn't align with the data you provide, I would like to review to data sets you used.

Thanks.

Higher contagiousness and shorter wave, as expected from the data from countries that had this wave first.

A cursory view of the data presented on Toyokeizai shows that this wave already is longer than all prior waves on most metrics, and given the slow rate of decline (the r0 has actually crept back up slightly) it seems that the tail end will certainly extend this wave to 2-3 times the length of previous waves.

Of course, it does depend on which metric you use to define wave. If you are specific and offer data for your assertion, I'd be happy to review it and give an informed opinion.

First below 200 in a long time, can't believe this number will actually look good.

I assume you mean for a Saturday? Sundays and Mondays reported deaths have never exceeded 200, which of course demonstrates a quirk in reporting as opposed to some mysterious quirk of the virus.

Source: Toyokeizai

omicron is less deadly than other variants on a CFR basis.

It is far deadlier on a deaths per capita basis, however. Statistics presented in isolation rarely give an accurate picture (a criticism that swings both ways).

So many on this forum like to berate others for lack of facts or analysis. Here is some cold analysis based on data sourced from Toyokeizai. This data is provided for context and for you to draw your own conclusions.

Average age of covid related death, in Japan, as of February 15:

70.15 - 76.23 years old (data is provided in ranges, so this range is reflective of the upper and lower numbers).

First three weeks of February as percentage of total deaths:

**14.58%** (in 2.87% of the total period since the first covid related death in Japan on February 21st, 2020)

First three weeks of February as percentage of total positive test results:

37.13%

For the first three weeks of February, there was a covid related death every 10 minutes on average.

CFR for the first three weeks of February:

0.18

CFR for the pandemic in Japan to date:

0.48

businesses need us and our support, something I did locally the last two years.

While I have sympathy on a personal level for small business owners and their families who have suffered fiscally, in my opinion it is a failing of the larger economic structure and business practices which have for decades operated in such a way as to make it impossible to survive an entirely predictable, and indeed ultimately inevitable, pandemic. It is not individuals' responsibility to risk even mild illness, let alone potentially deadly ones, to support the economy. It is the reoccurring theme of the free market advocates; when there is money to be made don't you dare regulate me, when the proverbial hits the fan, you have to bail us out. Similarly, I even take issue with the government giving too great a weight to 'saving the economy'. Certainly, citizens have some interest in saving business, but for the vast majority, as waged or salaried employees, we will suffer from economic downturn most severely even despite the capital owners receiving support, all the while having to sacrifice our health or even our loved ones lives. When I do participate in democracy, my primary interest is protecting my human needs, not the economic interests of those who buy into a system designed to exploit me and which refuse to build resilience against reality.

Anyway, this is somewhat off topic so I imagine my borderline socialist rant will be removed soon enough. Just wanted to scream into the void.

In conclusion. indeed you are making baseless claims.

You present a cogent argument, only to draw an incorrect conclusion. He clearly based his claim on the Japanese preprint, so it is by definition not baseless. Why undercut a good, well cited argument by trying to score some sort of partisan points like this? If you truly wish to convince people to change their position, it is unnecessary and ultimately counter productive.

I want to focus on your use of "acceptable rate", what is that? To many, we've actually reached that 

Indeed, I personally do not know how the acceptable mortality rate for any given disease is arrived at; it would be some balance of scientific opinion, public sentiment and political expedience I am sure. However, if you are arguing that the current mortality is acceptable, then you are arguing that those measures taken are appropriate and should continue until such a time as their easement would result in lower mortality. The fact that mortality is currently rising means that more stringent measures would be warranted (or higher mortality is acceptable). Essentially, you have to pick a number. Is 10000 a year acceptable to you? Can we push it up to 15000 so we can travel abroad or drink after 8? Is only 5000 acceptable, and we should lockdown to get there?

Personally, I have my own position, but I am not expressing it.

Unfortunately your analysis is flawed. Those that die of Covid usually have 3 or 4 serious preconditions so will be unlikely to live until the average age of death.

I believe you mean my emotional ploy is flawed, as the analysis does not rely on the average age of deaths, unless you mean to contend that the average age of those dying of covid over 80 is higher than the average age, which would in fact be contrary to your above statement as they should already be dead from their preconditions.

life has to go back to normal eventually.

Firstly, seeking to reduce mortality from one cause is not mutually exclusive of seeking to reduce mortality from another cause.

Secondly, covid-19 is a communicable disease. I am sure you are aware that it is intellectually dishonest to compare public health policies for communicable diseases to lung cancer or suicide.

Finally, with regard to communicable diseases, normal is a variety of public health measures, across both the public and private sectors, on the community and individual levels, implemented to mitigate mortality to an acceptable rate. These measures have included vaccination, isolation of infected individuals (both voluntary and mandatory), quarantine of locations subject to outbreaks, and closures of business and public institutions. In the case of the most commonly cited virus, seasonal influenza, these measures are implemented annually at a level which maintains a mortality rate of between 3000 and 10000 annually. The same measures have been implement on a larger scale for covid, with an apparent aim to maintain a similar mortality rate. This is normal.

What you are advocating as living with the virus would be an extremely abnormal response to a pandemic.

The most at risk are the very old, over 75’s, especially if in poor health. The next at risk are the obese beyond the age of a small child. Almost all deaths are over 80’s, nine for under 10’s, so it does not prove to be fatal equally amongst the population.

Im nit going to go around upsetting people who have lost a loved one am I, that would be callous. However the emotional and pulling at heartstrings techniques don’t work with me. I like to deal with the situation and analyse the data.

The following data analysis is sourced from Toyokeizai:

Over 80s as a percentage of total covid deaths:

61%

Average age of covid deaths:

74.2 years

Note: this figure is reached taking all deaths within an age bracket as at the highest possible value; i.e. over 30s = 39. Over 80s is averaged at the average life expectancy in Japan = 84.36.

As an emotional ploy, I might point out that on average every covid death has cost it's victim around 10 years of life on this analysis.

Living wth this virus is how it must be done unless a deadlier variant appears which is highly unlikely.

Unfortunately, early research indicates the ba.2 variant may be significantly more severe than the omicron strain. It is only preprint, however it definitely indicates that celebration would be terribly premature

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

You mean like the flu?

Like the vast majority of viruses. And, like the vast majority of viruses, it us incumbent upon the public authorities, private industry and individual citizens to take necessary steps to mitigate it's spread and mortality. Get vaccinated, isolate when infected, advise close contacts, close locations where there is a uncontrolled spread; all measures taken for the influenza virus. The tiresome comparison between viruses is not as salient as you might think.

A response to the omicron = influenza argument:

Premise 1: The omicron variant is equivalent in lethality to severe seasonal influenza.

Premise 2: Severe seasonal influenza has an acceptable annual mortality rate in Japan of approximately 10000 people.

Premise 3: Local and national authorities and private businesses implement various methods to achieve this mortality rate.

Therefore, local and national authorities and private business should implement various methods to achieve an acceptable annual mortality rate in Japan of approximately 10000 people for the omicron variant.

Premise 4: To date, covid-19 across all variants has had an annual mortality rate in Japan of approximately 10000 people.

Therefore, the various methods implemented to achieve this mortality rate to date are acceptable.

Premise 5: Mortality rates are increasing under the omicron variant.

Therefore, local and national authorities should implement stricter methods to maintain the acceptable mortality rate.

Alternatively, there is a higher acceptable mortality rate of omicron than influenza.

This appears to me to be the only logical positions you can be arguing.

Yes, Omicron is very mild, average age of deaths is over 80 in Japan. If millions are infected of any virus at one time there will sadly be deaths. Contagiousness does nit equate to lethality

Do you have a citation for the average age of deaths?By my calculation, the average age of deaths in Japan is 70. I reached this number by multiplying the number of deaths in each age bracket by the average age (eg. For 60-69 I used 65) and using the average life expectancy for the 80+ bracket (84). The data was sourced from toyokezai:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

With regard to the consistent debate over lethality vs mortality vs virulence or "contagiousness", it really seems beside the point from a public health perspective. Is your contention that the government, both local and national, does not take measures to suppress diseases of equivalent lethality? In my experience, the annual flu vaccines, school closures, doctor recommended isolation are all common place for the endemic flu. I personally do not doubt that were we to have a flu pandemic we would see the same or more stringent response as we have seen for covid. The only difference would be that certain sections of the population would likely be more amenable because there is a larger knowledge base for the influenza virus and we would therefore be more accepting of expert opinion.

National effective reproduction number at 1.15 , Tokyo 1.14.

If graph trends continue in current direction we may hit 1.0 very soon.

Hopefully.

For those unfamiliar with the effective reproduction number, or r0, it essentially refers to the number of new infections which will result from a single existing infection. At a r0 of 1.0, then each person with covid will infect one other person; a flat line effectively. So in terms of the 'peak', the rn has to be less than 1 to indicate declining cases.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52473523.amp&ved=2ahUKEwjxjrO8vfL1AhVLAt4KHX_-AygQFnoECDUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3R9taT8wZ078zyep0cKW5f

If somebody gets run down by a bus and is transported to hospital, tested and comes back positive for covid then dies two days later of his / her injuries, are they included in this number?.

No.

the 20th World Health Assembly defined the cause of death to be mentioned in the Death Certificate as “The disease or injury which initiated the train of morbid events leading directly to a person's death or the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury”

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en/stat-search/file-download%3FstatInfId%3D000031883915%26fileKind%3D2&ved=2ahUKEwj-_aeWu_L1AhWGGaYKHYFODyoQFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw316AUMKG8Ovfrt0vo6rFC6

At 2.

Irregardless of whether the new metrics are more appropriate based on the current sceintific evidence, the fact that the Tokyo Metro government has, once again, shifted the goal post for action at the exact moment they are about to pass the previous goal post is incredibly frustrating. They may as well say they will take whatever action (or inaction) at any random time they so please, instead of attemtping to falsely give some sense of a plan or statistical analysis which they will just disregard anyway.

While he should be summarily dismissed and barred from publuc office due to his racism, the corruption allegations regarding vaccine information are far more concerning. The Japan government must have been complicit in such a scheme, and it is a huge black mark for them and the nation more widely if proven. So many here love to tout conspiracies, but to me this looks like the real making of a scheme to profit off the pandemic via corrupt means.

The greatest threat in this pandemic is the inability of individuals and organisations to put aside their political beliefs, let go of their paranoia, and simply act for the greater good. Regardless of opinion as to the neccessity of the response in any given area, those of us who chose to deny, resist, and promulagate their contrarian views and conspiracy theories, have blood on their hands and are responsible for the vast majority of the economic issues. There is a time to stand and fight the power, and there is a time to stand in solidarity. Shame.

Sure, maybe there'll be another "spike" in the future, but with everyone vaccinated, it really won't make a difference anymore.

Its extremely poor taste to infer that the deaths consequent on spikes 'don't make a difference'. I am sure you wouldn't say that regarding a severe flu season.

Nah, this is the 21st day in a row that numbers were lower than the week before, with no lockdown and minimal restrictions. I think we're ok making positive comments now.

I understand the deep need for some positive news, however this short term view of the pandemic is what has consistently led to wave after wave of record breaking numbers. The aim should be succesively smaller waves, so perhaps its prudent to wait to pop the champange until the numbers drop below prewave base (if they in fact do).

As has been pointed out by the most astute voices echoing in the void that is the JT comment section in the downswing of every wave since last July, these lower numbers can only mean thay corona has been completed defeated and we can return to prepandemic life. I mean, eventually this repetitive drivel has to be right, instead of exactly the thinking that has led to successively worse waves with higher death rates. Right?

Things are not getting worse.

Unless you live outside Tokyo Metro.

If that example is true, then it is an example of incompetence. However there is no evidence that the government in league with prefectures and medical institutes is concealing case numbers or deaths as claimed multiple times by various posters here

Absolutely. I agree that these is unlikely to be any widespread conspiracies, on either end of the spectrum, at play in this pandemic. However, the compound effect of gross incompetence such as those examples, along with these further examples:

The father of the 3 year old was advised by the same doctor that as he was no symptomatic, he did not need a test. The father insisted he be tested, and the doctor actually told him he would be negative. He was confirmed positive this evening.

I am a teacher who had close contact with the 3 year old, and sought to be tested. I was unable to contact my local 保健所 (government health office) - twice the line was engaged, the third time they simple did not pick up. I was eventually tested by directly contacting a local clinic with a competent doctor.

It adds up.

Can anyone provide any evidence that the government is concealing case numbers please?

Only anecdotal evidence of incompetence, but this week I know of:

A doctor who refused to test a symptomatic one year old child, whose mother and three year old sister both teated positive, on the basis that one year olds could not contract covid, and;

A 保健所 (government health office) which advised the preschool of that 3 year old that none of the teachers nor students she had spent 8+ hours a day with last week are close contacts, do not need testing, and that the parents of other students should not be told of the positive result.

The 24th (today), 23rd, 21st and 20th had positive numbers LOWER than the week before.

I believe you are referring to Tokyo Metros numbers, while Zoroto is speaking to national figures. Out of curiousity, did you also mean Tokyo specifically when you talked about the wave? Personally, in a small island nation with minimal municipal or prefectural differentation, let alone borders to speak of, I dont think we can really consider Tokyo severable to such a degree as to declare its covid situation independent of wider Japan.

We should be back to pre-spike levels around early September-ish.

Bold prediction. Should it prove false, I wonder if you will be willing to admit it, unlike several others who have proclaimed 'the final wave' since February.

Much higher cases, less of an increase in severe cases and hardly any higher deaths.

So much gaslighting...

To clarify, based on yesterdays numbers:

Active cases:

640% increase on last month

(33006 increasing to 211710)

Severe cases:

430% increase on last month

(431 increasing to 1896)

Deaths:

380% increase on last month

(9 increasing to 34)

Much higher cases, less of an increase in severe cases and hardly any higher deaths.

So much gaslighting...