Waywardnihon comments

Posted in: Tokyo reports 78 new coronavirus cases See in context

Finally, if anyone has any links to the actual data on mortality for 2020 it would be appreciated.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 78 new coronavirus cases See in context

Here are some highlights of the article

Again, I would recommend reading the article in its entirety, as it doesn't infer the conclusion you are drawing.

Fixed.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 78 new coronavirus cases See in context

Here are some highlights of the article

Again, I would recommend reading the article in its entirety, as it does infer the conclusion you are drawing.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 78 new coronavirus cases See in context

The total number of deaths in Japan, from January to July, are less than for the same period last year.

I am always somewhat bemused by statements like this which seem to use the spurious logic that, because the SOE, global travel bans, near ubiquitous mask use and general high level of prevention undertaken in Japan has successfully kept the death rate low (as well as had a major impact on many other causes of death, for example traffic accidents, influenza deaths, and more), somehow those very measures were and are unnecessary. The death rate is low because of those actions. It does not prove the virus is not a threat.

As an aside, here is an article on the death rates in Japan for this year through July, which has some speculative discussion as to why this is:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201012/p2a/00m/0na/013000c

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Posted in: Ardern wins landslide victory in New Zealand See in context

I love watching the extremist right freaking out that the left is so loved in such a first-world country with a high standard of multicultural living as NZ. Drives them nuts.

As a left leaning NZer, I am glad to see Labour get it with a solid majority so they can avoid being reliant on populist/nationalists coalition partners. However, after 9 years of National driving a huge poverty gap and creating a generation of landless individuals (my generation being the first in NZ where the majority will not be able to buy a house in NZ), there is real work to be done. Jacinda has done a good job build profile and leading through crisis such as the Mosque terror attacks and covid. This has lead to the historic victory. Now please fix the country and maybe I will be able I can repatriate in the future. Otherwise I will stick with Japan. Its more affordable in my experience.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 235 new coronavirus cases See in context

Does anyone know if the test counts include tests at the airports?

Narita International Airport is not within the Tokyo Metropolis area, so would not be included in any case.

I am not sure about Haneda. The only specific reference to ports of entry or international transit I can find on the official site is the following line:

Excluding returnees on charter flights or cruise ship passengers

That said, under the heading Tests Conducted, the data is broken into two categories:

tests conducted at the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Public Health 

or

tests conducted at medical institutions

I would not class ports of entry as either of these so I would guess that those tests are not included.

As a point of interest, 8700 overseas residents entered Japan and 37,137 japanese residents travelled abroad (and presumably returned) during August:

https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 235 new coronavirus cases See in context

"severe symptoms" (which equates to hospitalization.) 

Within hospitalized patients, "serious symptoms" are considered to be those patients who need ventilators or ECMO.

- stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

This a current total, not daily number.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 235 new coronavirus cases See in context

To complete the picture, and not sure why this is never mentioned, but it appears therefore 21 70-year or older.

The breakdown for each age group is available via the hyperlink in the article (the word 'tests'). For this reporting, the numbers were:

6 Under 10

13 Teens

64 in their 20's

44 in their 30's

36 in their 40's

30 in their 50's

11 in their 60's

18 in their 70's

10 in their 80's

3 in their 90's

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Posted in: Japan to test anti-virus measures for big events at near-full stadium See in context

I'm not sure I buy the 'there haven't been out breaks' argument. In January, February and early March it was business as usual and we had the first massive spike and deaths in April and May. This lead to the SOE and, more importantly, dramatic changes in behaviour beyond the government guidelines. After the SOE ended the government pushed an all-is-well message and urged return to normal, and in July and August another big spike. This in turn led to rollback of some of those return to normal policies, and again saliently changes to more preventative behaviour. Now the case numbers have peeled back and deaths are stabilised at around 5-10 a day (much worse than June and early July by the way), there is more all is well behaviour. Without any real tangible efforts to conduct widespread tracing and solid prevention or mitigation, there is no reason to believe history won't repeat and in a month or two we will backslide. It is what it is I guess, but I disagree with the statement that this entire 9 months has just been win after win for Japan.

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Posted in: 1,805 suicides reported in Japan in September See in context

As has been pointed out, equating suicide with prevention measures is misguided. NZ has seen reduced suicides this year.

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Posted in: 1,805 suicides reported in Japan in September See in context

Same people saying corona deaths are inconsequential are here in an uproar over an increase in suicides which is less than the corona mortality for that same month.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 66 new coronavirus cases See in context

The fatality rate for covid patients is going down. Though it depends on how it is interpreted...

While I appreciate the disclaimer, to clarify the article you reference is referring to the CFR for the Tokyo Metropolitan area, comparing the fatality rate for the period following the SOE to the period from the first case to the end of the SOE. Essentially, the CFR has dropped to one twelfth of that during the May, the deadliest month, for the Metro area.

However, taking data from https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

I can see that in National terms, the CFR for September was 1.82% (15091 cases, 275 deaths), while the CFR for August was 0.89% (32000 cases, 285 deaths). The overall CFR is 1.87% (85298 cases, 1598 deaths).

As they say, statistics can tell any story you want them to. From my perspective, it seems that Japan has a tentative handle on things, but it is far from over.

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