Waywardnihon comments

Frankly New Zealand has outperformed Japan and most other nations throughout the pandemic. Through the use of short term, decisive and severe lockdowns, most New Zealands have enjoyed a greater amount of time living 'normally' or much closer to it than the perpetual SoEs and half measures here over the last year and a half. Furthermore, its response has to date been highly effective from a public health perspective, greatly limiting deaths. And the economic impact has likewise been roughly the same as most other nations, if not less in many cases thanks to the domestic stimulus engendered by 6 months of 0 cases. Finally, I am confident that faced with a mutated strain, NZ has a far greater chance to make appropriate changes to its strategy to deal with it as opposed to the government here.

Ultimately, we will not know who 'won' (as this article and most posters before me seem to imply is the point) covid until the end of this pandemic.

We see surging cases but deaths remain low as do severe cases comparing to pre vaccine times.

While deaths do remain low at this stage, severe cases, both for the Tokyo Metro area and nationally, are no longer low compared to 'pre-vaccine times'; in fact, they are both approaching record numbers (160 for Tokyo, 1413 nationally).

Today marks two weeks since new active cases began trending into positive integers, and one week since severe cases did the same, nationally. Based upon prior waves statistics, we can expect to see a corresponding increase in deaths within a week or so.

My opinion: Predictably, the virus is continuing to behave as it has for the entire pandemic. Unfortunately, the vaccination effort has emboldened those calling for the abandonment of the already meagre mitigation efforts already in place. As was pointed out here previously, vaccination is not a magical silver bullet. It will impact the viruses spread slowly over time, however simultaneously variants will result in setbacks. The failure to launch a comprehensive and effective set of practices to mitigate the virus and distribute vaccines mean Japan has many months if not more than a year of work ahead.

Finally, while vaccines will help, they are not magical barriers and we still require other mitigation, as the below article illustrates:

https://www.businessinsider.com/fully-vaccinated-people-got-covid-after-an-outdoor-wedding-2021-7

However the assumption the next wave must higher does not factor in the vaccination rollout. I think we all agree it's been slow (putting it nicely), however they predict all over 65's to be fully vaccinated by the end of July. With that being the most vulnerable group making up the majority of the deaths and a large part of the population here, we should not be seeing a repeat of those number of deaths, if the vaccines work.

To br fair, I am not assuming the next wave will be higher, only pointing out that the current decline in deaths does indeed fit with the existing statistical wave model, irregardless of vaccinations. Therefore, while there may be an impact on future waves, I don't think we can currently assume the figures have been impacted based purely on retrospective statistics, which is what the original post implied.

Sounds scary Jim! Better take a look at the bigger picture, to see where we're are heading!

Im loathe to point out your remarkably limited concept of bigger picture yet again, but lets actually look at, say, more than the down swing of a single wave. Maybe one year...

11th July 2020 = 0 deaths

11th Aug 2020 = 6 deaths

11th Sept 2020 = 12 deaths

11th Oct 2020 = 2 deaths

11th Nov 2020 = 11 deaths

11th Dec 2020 = 51 deaths

11th Jan 2021 = 48 deaths

11th Feb 2021 = 77 deaths

11th March 2021 = 45 deaths

11th April 2021 = 18 deaths

11th May 2021 = 113 deaths

11th June 2021 = 55 deaths 

11th July 2021 =  6 deaths 

oh... ever worsening waves...

This is a very good point. A good start will be to compare where we were this time last month:

Indeed, but why stop there! How about 6 months ago:

DECEMBER 2020:

4th = 43 deaths

5th = 32 deaths

6th = 20 deaths

7th = 47 deaths

JANUARY 2021:

4th = 56 deaths

5th = 64deaths

6th = 72 deaths

7th = 66 deaths

Or how about a year ago?

JUNE 2020:

4th = 4 deaths

5th = 7 deaths

6th = 2 deaths

7th = 0 deaths

JULY 2020:

4th = 0 deaths

5th = 0 deaths

6th = 1 deaths

7th = 2 deaths

How odd. It's almost as if COVID death statistics follow some kind of wave pattern. I wonder if it correlates to the similar pattern observed in cases? Let's see:

SECOND WAVE:

Date where upward trend in active cases (into positive figures) can be observed: 23 June 2020

Date where upward trend in deaths can be observed: 31 July 2020

THIRD WAVE:

Date where upward trend in active cases (into positive figures) can be observed: 22 October 2020

Date where upward trend in deaths can be observed: 11 November 2020

FOURTH WAVE:

Date where upward trend in active cases (into positive figures) can be observed: 10 March 2021

Date where upward trend in deaths can be observed: 13 April 2021

My god... it's almost as if the number of deaths increases between two to four weeks after the active cases start to trend into positive figures. Fortunately, due to vaccination and positive thinking as espoused here, that can't happen again right. However, let's check the trend for active cases over the last three Tuesdays (because this is the latest available data I have), just to be safe:

22 JUNE 2021: - 603 active cases, -51 serious cases

29 JUNE 2021: - 372 Active cases, -10 serious cases

6 JULY 2021: - 316 active cases, -1 serious case

Not as encouraging as one might hope. Of course, we shouldn't assume that this virus will continue to behave exactly as it has done for the entire pandemic. I am sure those contributors who, once again in the lull of a wave on decline, have declared victory have solid, statistical analysis beyond comparing one month's or better yet one day's figures.

Honestly, if you ignore all the conspiratorial thinking and just take a macro look at the reported statistics since the beginning of the pandemic, the Japanese model has failed. Every wave peaks higher and leads to a higher total in the trough, whether looking at cases or deaths. It has never improved, and focusing on the number difference between peaks and troughs is misleading.

I genuinely hope vaccinations will break this pattern, but there is no statistic evidence that this has happened or is happening in Japan.

I suggest toyokezai to see the overall trend from early last year.

At that rate, it will take a further 27 days to administer enough doses for another 10% of the population.

What? How big do you think Japan's population is? Because your math is wrong

(961,404 x 27) / 2 = 12978954

12978954 x 10 = 129 Million, aka the population of Japan

We are actually in the trough after the 4th wave which was smaller than the 3rd wave.

This wave was smaller in the sense that it occured over a shorter time frame, however it was more severe generally. The third wave saw roughly 278000 new cases in the three months between 12/01 and 03/01, whereas this new wave has seen almost the same (268000) in two months. It has also had a higher average mortality. Fortunately, it has peaked sooner, likely thanks to new laws being passed relating to enforcement of SoE measures. However, the trough baseline has not yet returned to prewave levels, and if it does not then I think there is no basis to conclude that this signifies a improvement.

Personally, my concern is that with every wave in Japan, preventative measures are consistently relaxed or disregarded before the reported numbers return to a base level seen before that wave began, leaving aside any aspersions regarding that reporting. We are already seeing it with this SoE, despite the fact the national figure is roughly double that of the baseline following the New Year SoE. Vaccination is still far too low, and public exhaustion too high, to mitigate another wave if measures are abandoned now and we will see another, higher wave. Those infections and resultant deaths, just as they have been in previous waves, are preventable and if it occurs, are negligently caused by mismanagement in my opinion.

Does anyone have a link to the mortality in Japan data for 2020? I don't mean reporting on the data, but the actual data itself (for example, https://www.e-stat.go.jp). I can only find datasets for 2014 at the latest, which means these claims regarding mortality are unprovable either way. I do believe the reporting of a decline in total deaths, however that really doesn't give enough info.

The numbers are indeed falling, hospital cases and deaths confirm the low numbers and the good news.

Relative to what? I understand your protestations against various conspiracy theories regarding reporting. However, viewing the pandemic period as a whole in Japan, it is clear that it has been a continuing trend of waves with higher peaks, followed by troughs with higher baselines, whatever metric you use. Vaccination is undoubtedly an important intervention against that, but there is no evidence that is impacting it yet.

They've just changed category criteria for severely sick patients.

コロナ重症者1413人に　国の集計変更で119人増

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA212V30R20C21A5000000/

To clarify, they haven't changed the criteria for severely sick patients. The national criteria has always been those patients in ICU beds or on assisted breathing (ECMO/ventilators). Osaka and Kobe were reporting under more restrictive local criteria, which excluded ICU patients. MHW has now started counting them under national criteria.

On a related note, the Tokyo figures are also based on the local criteria which only includes those on assisted breathing apparatus.

Sorry, but unless they are citizens or permanent residents they should be barred

In fact, according to the article it seems even PRs are banned:

As Japan has already banned the entry of foreign nationals, including those with resident status, who have been to those countries within the past two weeks, except under special circumstances, the measure primarily effects Japanese citizens.

I wonder how Japanese people will feel in the future when the Tokyo variant is the new scary strain circulating. While it make sense to be wary of travel from areas with emergent strains, the complete failure to contain and trace the virus domestically, combined with repeated xenophobic rhetoric and botched vaccine program, is certainly setting this up to happen.

He was just extremely unlucky

He was unable to access medical care and treatment due to the overstressed health system. That is not just unlucky, and to act as if it was an immutable, inescapable whim of the universe is frankly offensive, negligent and makes you culpable.

As an aside, can you provide news stories for the official 21 deaths reported in the 20-39 age bracket in Japan as of 5 May 2021 according to Toyokezai:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

The number of infected people hospitalized with severe symptoms in Tokyo is 63, unchanged from Saturday, health officials said. The nationwide figure is a record high 1,050, up 30 from Saturday, surpassing the previous high of 1,043 on Jan 26.

I notice that people still mistake this figure as representing all hospitalizations, when in fact it only refers to those receiving ECMO or on ventilators (i.e. those who cannot breath independently). There are scores of others hospitalized who do not yet reach this standard.

Well been a while since I was here... Just wanted to weigh in in response to those same users who appear to be making the same arguments a year later in support of the Japan model...

Surely, you can admit that, irregardless of whether you believe the virus is just like the flu, or that fatal cases are of no concern due to demographics, or that Japan has lower numbers in comparison to other cherry picked nations, you can see by pure statistics that the situation has continually, and continues now, gotten worse. It has never gotten better here, just bigger waves, followed by bigger baselines. In addition, there has been a failure to implement an effective vaccine distribution, particular before entirely predictably mutations and variant strains emerged. There is no metric by which the Japan model can be called successful.

No one blames you; you are not responsible for the failure. And you can still like Japan and want to live here. But at least be intellectually honest enough to drop the inexplicable support for this particular CF.

I’m curious to know how much amplification is used in the PCR test in Japan. Is this the only way “cases” are being corroborated. If so then until a chest X-ray is taken they are still only suspected cases.

I have been PCR tested twice, at a hospital, when presenting with fever. On both occasions I was also given a chest x-ray. Both times I was negative.

You can't have it both ways. If you defend the current testing regime on the basis of its narrow focus on symptomatic individuals, as many here do, you can't also claim that most of those symptomatic patients who test positive are false positives

Well, so much for the "constitutionality" argument against lock downs. It was always false, but not it is demonstrably false.

Please point out where there is a lockdown in Japan?

You are confusing many things

They are not locking anyone down or in.

The government can mandate closing times, that does not affect anyone's rights as it is a business.

As for forcing people into hospital that again falls under protecting other from harm

Figure it out very different things.

It is painfully obvious from your use of language that you haven't read the constitution, nor have any legal training, so this will probably go over your head.

There hasn't been a lockdown in Japan, a decision which has often been described as based on constitutionality, primarily under article 13, which guarantees ****life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

As I have commented before, the constitution limits individual rights with the phrase to the extent that it does not interfere with the public welfare. As you may call it protecting others from harm. The same constitution vest sole power to legislate and provide for public welfare with the elected government.

The same logic follows for allowing lockdowns as for forcing hospitalisations. Both can be predicated on protecting the public welfare, and in fact as the number of infected increase, a lockdown arguable has a lesser impact on individual rights (albeit to a wider group of individuals).

I expect you will reply. I wont, because you don‘t really know what you are talking about. I actually support a lockdown. However, if we are not doing it, I would prefer it is not predicated on spurious arguments.

Death by Covid in 2020 - 3,460

Death by suicide in 2020 - 20,919

Death by Covid in 2019 - 0

Death by suicide in 2019 - 20169

Death by Covid in first 21 days of 2021 - 1370

Well, so much for the "constitutionality" argument against lock downs. It was always false, but not it is demonstrably false.

As for all the arm-chair freedom fighters and legal eagles above, you clearly haven‘t bothered to read the bill, nor have any working knowledge of legislative interpretation. Settle down.

1,475.

That's the covid-19 death toll for Japan for December 7th through January 7th.

30% of the total death toll for Japan in a single month.

And there are still people here dismissing the virus and fearmongering over economic impact. For some reason, they look at other nations and feel that, rather than acting as grim portents of a very real possibility for Japan's near future, they somehow justify burying their heads in the sand.

7 Day Average Deaths per day:

Nov 5: 8

Dec 5: 30

Jan 5: 50

The usual daily commentators here:

Deaths arent going up. Its just the flu. Im not locking down for noone.

Your arguments have been conclusively proven wrong. You have no credibility.

There is nothing to celebrate, you should be disappointed this situation continues, not happy it didn't work out

And you should be apologising for the months and months of encouraging reckless behaviour and promoting dubious and false information which has allowed for the failed strategy and for the situation to continue.

I agree, schadenfreude is not an attractive quality, but it is those who failed to take the virus seriously and actively promoted a chevalier attitude who are responsible for the situation now, not those protested the clearly inadequate response in Japan.

What exactly is the definition of "severe symptoms"?

For Tokyo Metro it is defined as requiring a ventilator or ECMO.

Over 100,000 people die of pneumonia every year in Japan.

Covid19 2500 so far.

These vague comparisons are ill founded and uncited.

Looking at an actual comparison over the same period, in the same conditions, I recommend the following site, based on the American experience:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

It is bemusing to see people constantly bemoaning the reporting here as inadequate because it lacks this statistic or that statistic, where they have clearly been able to access that information somewhere to make the claim. If anyone is using JT as their sole source of Covid information in Japan, I fear the issue is far worse than simple not reporting the number of hospitalisations. Personally I recommend this site for a comprehensive data set:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

wake me up when the average age of deaths isn't in the mid 80s with 2 or more co-morbidities and the death rate is no longer falling.

I think you overslept because none of those are true...