Waywardnihon comments

Posted in: Tokyo reports 122 new coronavirus cases See in context

I recommend using this site for data relating to the covid pandemic in Japan, it has a large amount of data for every prefecture as well as nationwide:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 122 new coronavirus cases See in context

Is that a new record low?

It is the lowest number of tests since June 28, where 569 tests were conducted in Tokyo with 60 confirmed positive results.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 87 new coronavirus cases See in context

As cases trend up nationally it is clear that the epicenter of the next wave will not be Tokyo. Okayama, Aomori, Aichi, Osaka are all seeing surges. Maybe more reporting for other prefectures or Japan as a whole is prudent?

3 ( +7 / -4 )

Posted in: Survey finds only 23% of vehicles stop for pedestrians at crosswalks See in context

What is the law on this?

There are diamonds painted on the road before pedestrian crossings; if the diamond is visible and there is a pedestrian waiting at the zebra crossing, you are required to stop. At least that's what they teach at the licensing seminar when you renew your license...

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Posted in: Japan's aid agency to launch support body for foreign workers See in context

I feel that somewhere along the line these discussions have devolved into partisan camps playing “Japan vs. 外国” or “doctored death counts conspiracy vs. coronavirus isn’t real conspiracy” or “save the economy vs. public health” wargames. Maybe it is a sign of the times, but it is sad to see at the time of the single largest global event most of us will see in our lifetimes, we revert to such black and white views. This is a global pandemic, every nation needs to work both domestically and internationally to bring it under control. There are no conspiracies. Economies and public health are not mutually exclusive.

Testing and reporting is merely data. Perhaps wider testing provides more data. Perhaps it is also vulnerable to error. But whatever testing regime we are using, we, the people, need to genuinely acknowledge what it says. In Japan, at this time, after about a month of stability, cases outside Tokyo are rising. We have seen a similar situation before, when in late June cases began rising, with Tokyo as the main barometer at that time. We should take measures now to mitigate that rise, or, as we saw in August and early September, there may be another peak. And at the same time, we should support each other economically, and emotionally, and humanely, responsibly. This is not going to end anytime soon. It is a global problem.

Finally, I know it is not anyone’s intention, but when you know someone who has died alone on a ventilator in Japan from covid, these comments about deaths are at the very least unempathetically worded.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 158 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 629 See in context

Unfortunately, while Metropolitan Tokyo and the neighboring prefectures appear to remain stable, Hokkaido, Osaka and Okayama have all seen increasing case in the last week or so, leading to an overall upward trend for all Japan in active cases:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

'Fortunately', deaths remain stable at this stage. At this stage, whatever the strategy of the Japanese government, I sincerely hope it prevents, or is equipped to deal with, any future surges. It would be irresponsible to assume that this is over because we have had stable numbers for a month.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 102 new coronavirus cases See in context

This is a link the the USFDA emergency approval findings for one RTーPCR test, including data on sensitivity and specificity. It finds that the test is has a low rate of false positives and is specific to nCov-SARS-2 when subjected to analysis:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.fda.gov/media/136151/download&ved=2ahUKEwjVvv_ll9LsAhXIAYgKHattAJsQFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw01KKYbfY1uDX6dREqk8iCf

In real world application, the false positive rate has been estimated at between 0.8 and 4% in the UK amongst low incidence groups:(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7457918/)

Looking at these studies as a layperson, my interpretation is that false positives are not a significant issue for wide testing regimes where mitigation is put in place. For example, high standards for sample collection and handling, retesting following inconclusive or positive results to confirm diagnosis, and prioritising pretest screening for those at high risk of exposure or health complications (i.e. service staff, medical staff, and individuals with comorbidities).

Its fine to think that Japans method is working fine, but buying into some conspiracy that the situation on other countries is somehow false due to test failure is to diminish the global nature of the pandemic.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 186 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 740 See in context

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

Citation for above.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 186 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 740 See in context

7 day average nationally has been dead flat at around 500 since August 30.

Indeed, the situation nationally appears to have stabilized as of the end of September at around 5000 active cases, with about 150 critically ill patients at any given time, and around 6 deaths per day. This is based on around 16000 tests nationally per day.

On one hand, it is good news that the situation appears to be stable; however, on the other hand the situation appeared similarly stable in June, at much better numbers. Stability does not mean the virus has magically become inactive. I sincerely hope the powers that be in Japan have serious contingencies in place around the proposed easing of prevention measures and the overall messaging, because, if there is a spike at a similar exponent as we saw at the end of June it could be a very bad Winter.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 139 new coronavirus cases; nationwide tally 482 See in context

The number of active cases is falling gradually.

Actually, nationally, it seems to have stabilized for the last month at around 5200;

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 78 new coronavirus cases See in context

Finally, if anyone has any links to the actual data on mortality for 2020 it would be appreciated.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 78 new coronavirus cases See in context

Here are some highlights of the article

Again, I would recommend reading the article in its entirety, as it doesn't infer the conclusion you are drawing.

Fixed.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 78 new coronavirus cases See in context

Here are some highlights of the article

Again, I would recommend reading the article in its entirety, as it does infer the conclusion you are drawing.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 78 new coronavirus cases See in context

The total number of deaths in Japan, from January to July, are less than for the same period last year.

I am always somewhat bemused by statements like this which seem to use the spurious logic that, because the SOE, global travel bans, near ubiquitous mask use and general high level of prevention undertaken in Japan has successfully kept the death rate low (as well as had a major impact on many other causes of death, for example traffic accidents, influenza deaths, and more), somehow those very measures were and are unnecessary. The death rate is low because of those actions. It does not prove the virus is not a threat.

As an aside, here is an article on the death rates in Japan for this year through July, which has some speculative discussion as to why this is:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201012/p2a/00m/0na/013000c

5 ( +10 / -5 )

Posted in: Ardern wins landslide victory in New Zealand See in context

I love watching the extremist right freaking out that the left is so loved in such a first-world country with a high standard of multicultural living as NZ. Drives them nuts.

As a left leaning NZer, I am glad to see Labour get it with a solid majority so they can avoid being reliant on populist/nationalists coalition partners. However, after 9 years of National driving a huge poverty gap and creating a generation of landless individuals (my generation being the first in NZ where the majority will not be able to buy a house in NZ), there is real work to be done. Jacinda has done a good job build profile and leading through crisis such as the Mosque terror attacks and covid. This has lead to the historic victory. Now please fix the country and maybe I will be able I can repatriate in the future. Otherwise I will stick with Japan. Its more affordable in my experience.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 235 new coronavirus cases See in context

Does anyone know if the test counts include tests at the airports?

Narita International Airport is not within the Tokyo Metropolis area, so would not be included in any case.

I am not sure about Haneda. The only specific reference to ports of entry or international transit I can find on the official site is the following line:

Excluding returnees on charter flights or cruise ship passengers

That said, under the heading Tests Conducted, the data is broken into two categories:

tests conducted at the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Public Health 

or

tests conducted at medical institutions

I would not class ports of entry as either of these so I would guess that those tests are not included.

As a point of interest, 8700 overseas residents entered Japan and 37,137 japanese residents travelled abroad (and presumably returned) during August:

https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 235 new coronavirus cases See in context

"severe symptoms" (which equates to hospitalization.) 

Within hospitalized patients, "serious symptoms" are considered to be those patients who need ventilators or ECMO.

- stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

This a current total, not daily number.

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Posted in: Tokyo reports 235 new coronavirus cases See in context

To complete the picture, and not sure why this is never mentioned, but it appears therefore 21 70-year or older.

The breakdown for each age group is available via the hyperlink in the article (the word 'tests'). For this reporting, the numbers were:

6 Under 10

13 Teens

64 in their 20's

44 in their 30's

36 in their 40's

30 in their 50's

11 in their 60's

18 in their 70's

10 in their 80's

3 in their 90's

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Posted in: Japan to test anti-virus measures for big events at near-full stadium See in context

I'm not sure I buy the 'there haven't been out breaks' argument. In January, February and early March it was business as usual and we had the first massive spike and deaths in April and May. This lead to the SOE and, more importantly, dramatic changes in behaviour beyond the government guidelines. After the SOE ended the government pushed an all-is-well message and urged return to normal, and in July and August another big spike. This in turn led to rollback of some of those return to normal policies, and again saliently changes to more preventative behaviour. Now the case numbers have peeled back and deaths are stabilised at around 5-10 a day (much worse than June and early July by the way), there is more all is well behaviour. Without any real tangible efforts to conduct widespread tracing and solid prevention or mitigation, there is no reason to believe history won't repeat and in a month or two we will backslide. It is what it is I guess, but I disagree with the statement that this entire 9 months has just been win after win for Japan.

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Posted in: 1,805 suicides reported in Japan in September See in context

As has been pointed out, equating suicide with prevention measures is misguided. NZ has seen reduced suicides this year.

-4 ( +4 / -8 )

Posted in: 1,805 suicides reported in Japan in September See in context

Same people saying corona deaths are inconsequential are here in an uproar over an increase in suicides which is less than the corona mortality for that same month.

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

Posted in: Tokyo reports 66 new coronavirus cases See in context

The fatality rate for covid patients is going down. Though it depends on how it is interpreted...

While I appreciate the disclaimer, to clarify the article you reference is referring to the CFR for the Tokyo Metropolitan area, comparing the fatality rate for the period following the SOE to the period from the first case to the end of the SOE. Essentially, the CFR has dropped to one twelfth of that during the May, the deadliest month, for the Metro area.

However, taking data from https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

I can see that in National terms, the CFR for September was 1.82% (15091 cases, 275 deaths), while the CFR for August was 0.89% (32000 cases, 285 deaths). The overall CFR is 1.87% (85298 cases, 1598 deaths).

As they say, statistics can tell any story you want them to. From my perspective, it seems that Japan has a tentative handle on things, but it is far from over.

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