Waywardnihon comments

Of course not...Tokyo test numbers will be dutifully kept under 10,000 as usual. J-govt promised 60,000 to 200,000 tests per day months ago....

To fair the number of tests nationally has significantly increased. Personally, I agree the number is insufficient.

Great news! In recent days the number of infected people hospitalized with severe symptoms in Tokyo has steadily gone down.

Unfortunately, nationally severe cases are still steadily rising.

That statement is after the nationwide data, so I'm guessing that the 19 deaths are nationwide, and not just Tokyo. Does anybody know???

It is the national total

I wish stories would tell us who these infected cases are. Not their names, but where they got infected. For example, were workers living in a dorm, members of a sports club, one of the groups partying on yakatabune that I have seen sailing along the river past my place every night for the past two weeks.

Some local authorities report data on tracing, fot example my city. Most infections appear to family transmission here.

Because their Japanese and Japanese citizens can not be refused entry under any circumstances according to the constitution

Citation? Because upon reading the constitution no such right is guaranteed. Nor does it prohibit lockdowns. In fact, the Constitution does state that human rights shall be subject to the public welfare, which pandemic prevention would qualify as.

Article 12. The freedoms and rights guaranteed to the people by this Constitution shall be maintained by the constant endeavor of the people, who shall refrain from any abuse of these freedoms and rights and shall always be responsible for utilizing them for the public welfare.

Article 13. All of the people shall be respected as individuals. Their right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness shall, to the extent that it does not interfere with the public welfare, be the supreme consideration in legislation and in other governmental affairs.

Of course, as with any foundational document, its application in real life is up to the interpretation of the courts. But it is simple incorrect to hide behind the Constitution.

So? What are the resulting deaths from the “skyrocketing” cases?

In the week ending Sunday, November 29th, there were 138 Covid-19 related deaths reported in Japan, making it the second deadliest week (Mon-Sun period) of the pandemic, after the week ending Sunday, May 3rd (144).

Of further note, the peak number of daily cases reported during the first wave was April 10th (708), while the peak for daily deaths during the first wave was May 8th (49). Similarly, during the second wave, cases peaked on August 7th (1595), whereas deaths peaked on September 4th (19). Serious case numbers split the difference, peaking roughly 2-3 weeks after cases, and roughly one week before deaths. Based on these trends, we can expect deaths to continue to rise for 1-3 weeks after the case number begins to fall.

Source: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Situation Report in Japan (toyokeizai.net)

how many deaths are reported today? just asking as want to figure %

There were 14,384 reported this week in Japan, making the CFR roughly 0.95% for this week. However, if as above, mortality trails case positivity rate by roughly 2 weeks, then calculating using case positivity for 2 weeks ago (10058 cases) gives CFR of roughly 1.37%.

Is there a reason why the most vulnerable age group 60s to 90s are not given ?

The link in the story offers data for all age groups.

Took a quick look at the deaths graph. Peak averages for this month looks about a little less to about the same compared to the peak averages last aug- Sept.

Not sure what exactly you mean by peak averages. Firstly, it is not possible to identify the peak of the wave until there is a downward trend. Secondly, the peak date for deaths on the second/summer wave was September 4th, with 19 deaths. There have been two days this month which exceed that, the 19th and 25th. Finally, the moving average now is around the same as the peak time in the last wave, although if the correlation between the case rate and mortality is similar to previous waves, it will trail the case rate by roughly 2 weeks.

Plus, the vast majority who actually show any symptoms at all are experiencing mild to moderate ones. That leaves most people who have the virus in their system at all are asymptomatic. This is not to detract from the people who have serious symptoms or pass away - I can't find info on comorbidities, but the link below indicates almost everyone who has died has been aged 70+, and most of them 80+ - around the average life expectancy.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

Of the 2000 reported covid-19 deaths in Japan on TK to date, 1592, or around 79.1%, have been aged 70 or above. While that is a majority, I think it is unfair to characterize it as "almost everyone".

While I am not aware of any data on co-morbidities with regard to Japan, the CDC does have a very informative page with regard to US cases at:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

That is, the recovery rate is rising, and the death rate is falling

The 'death rate' you are referring to is the CFR I assume, as the mortality rate per capita, as well as the raw number of deaths per day, are, in fact, rising according to your own cited source, TK:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

And in any case, they don't want to see a country economically crippled and their children and grandchildren suffer to save a relatively tiny number of older people who are close to the end.

Well, to be fair, even two essentially back to back world wars and the great depression didn't leave countries "economically crippled" for three generations, so it is a bit dramatic to imagine any of the current pandemic measures are some sort of economic doomsday.

Previously I decided to bow out of this comment section as I came to regard it as a futile endeavour. However, as I continue my effort to stay informed regard covid-19 internationally, I have discovered several useful resources which I want to share. I hope these will provide data which commentators may reference when expressing their views so as provide more salient and well supported arguments:

CDC: this page lists all covid-19 deaths by age and gender, as well as by comorbidity including influenza, in the US:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

TK: this page sources data from across Japan to provide in depth data as to the situation here, including breakdowns by age and prefecture:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

Stop Covid: this site provides hospitalization data for all Japan based on prefectural reporting:

https://www.stopcovid19.jp/

Tokyo: this site contains data on the Tokyo Metro area situation:

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Estat: This is the official portal for the government statistics in Japan. It is useful for data relating to previous years and non-covid causes of death, although as data is tabulated annually, there is limited data for 2020:

https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en

WHO: factsheets provided by the WHO across all monitored health issues. This is useful when reference other diseases mortality rates in previous years etc.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets

Previously I decided to bow out of this comment section as I came to regard it as a futile endeavour. However, as I continue my effort to stay informed regard covid-19 internationally, I have discovered several useful resources which I want to share. I hope these will provide data which commentators may reference when expressing their views so as provide more salient and well supported arguments:

CDC: this page lists all covid-19 deaths by age and gender, as well as by comorbidity including influenza, in the US:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

TK: this page sources data from across Japan to provide in depth data as to the situation here, including breakdowns by age and prefecture:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

Stop Covid: this site provides hospitalization data for all Japan based on prefectural reporting:

https://www.stopcovid19.jp/

Tokyo: this site contains data on the Tokyo Metro area situation:

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

Estat: This is the official portal for the government statistics in Japan. It is useful for data relating to previous years and non-covid causes of death, although as data is tabulated annually, there is limited data for 2020:

https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en

WHO: factsheets provided by the WHO across all monitored health issues. This is useful when reference other diseases mortality rates in previous years etc.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets

This will be my last post here, as I have come to the conclusion, based on seeing the same comments repeated over multiple articles despite evidence clearly presented to the contrary, along with the consistent references to conspiracies, and data frequently misrepresented or misinterpreted (whether intentionally or through lack of understanding) that this site is purely yelling into the void. This is non-partisan and falls on both sides of the issues surrounding covid-19.

I would highly recommend getting your data from multiple sources, preferably from non-profit institutions and government agencies. Good luck to everyone in these trying times.

this virus has most likely claimed people who would have otherwise died in a more severe flu season if you compare flu seasons over several years and follow the trends in peaks and troughs.

While influenza and covid-19 share co-morbidities, it is disingenuous to compare the mortality rate for covid-19 in 2020 to influenza mortality in previous years due to the material difference in preventative measures taken globally in 2020. In fact, these measures have likewise critically impacted the influenza mortality rate for 2020. This is a variation on the specious argument that because the preventative measures are working, they are unnecessary.

This seems to be causing outcry here... In fact, sizable clusters have recently been reported within foreign communities across the country (e.g. Gifu, Saitama, Tochigi, Ibaraki, etc.). That is just a fact, and the phenomenon is more conspicuous in terms of cluster size and rapid growth. The public notice is thus valid.

Do you have a citation for reporting on these clusters, preferable with case numbers? Japanese is fine.

The 'foreign' population in Japan is around 2.9 million, or 2.3% of the total population. Translating that to covid-19 cases, that would be around 2500 cases proportionally (of the total 111000ish).

I cannot find any data as to nationalities in the covid reporting, so I don't know if 'foreigners' constitute disproportionately more cases, but I would hope that such data is readily available if government officials are claiming that certain groups are problematic.

It has taken nearly a year for the virus to infect 50 million people worldwide. That is less than 1% of the population. And of that 50 million, about 2% are fatalities.

I can't advise you as to your emotional state, but factually speaking those statistics make Covid-19 the number one single infectious cause of death globally, far outstripping the previous number one cause in 2019 (TB). Again, that is with the unparalleled global response.

Wayward, well I would say at least greater than the current rate of 0.1% of all deaths. Is that reasonable?

So that would exclude homicide, suicide, road deaths, and all other transmissible diseases (HIV, TB, Influenza, measles, etc.). It would also exclude infant mortality entirely.

As we have been doing for covid for the previous 10 months, we take measures to minimise all the above to achieve low mortality rates. It is specious and circular to argue that because those measures are successful, they are unwarranted

 It sounds cold, but only 5-10 fatalities a day is nothing in a country the size of Japan. If you look at the statistics, nearly 4,000 people die every day anyway.

What proportion of total deaths must a single cause be before we deem it worthy of taking action to prevent?

 The virus will burn through the population, as viruses tend to do. 

I assume this is an argument for natural herd immunity. Which virus has this been achieved with?

Nishimura, however, said the government will step up measures to prevent a wider spread of the virus as "the trend of increase is becoming conspicuous."

Poor choice of words as it implies that the government is only concerned with the appearance of an increase and how noticeable it is, rather than actually dealing with the problem. Also, becoming conspicuous? The upward trend has been apparent for around 2 weeks and mirrors previous 'waves'. Again, it is just being reported now so the government is concerned with the public opinion.

Most likely, many people are going to stop going out to eat the next few weeks and cases will then start to fall. Arguably this is worse for restaurants as they lose customers without receiving support.

Exactly, and this seems to be a conscious, strategic decision by the government. The early, more interventionist measures received a lot of backlash, and in August the wave was brought down almost entirely on the back of individual action. In Japan there is a cultural sensibility toward uniform action, so perhaps the government can get away with it. Really, whether it is a successful strategy, both in terms of public health and the economy, will only be obvious after the pandemic ends and we can compare the overall effects. Regardless, we lowly commenters are bound to live with whatever they decide and do our best

Prediction: Within two weeks, Japan will break its national cases per day record (1595).

Nationwide, the number of reported cases rose to 1,123. After Tokyo, the prefectures with the highest numbers were Osaka (169), Hokkaido (115), Saitama (114), Aichi (82), Hyogo (49), Chiba (42), Kyoto (24) and Okinawa (21).

The day with the highest reported cases nationwide in Japan was August 7, with 1595 cases. Will this new trend upward beat that record?

First day national cases has surpassed 1000 since August 21, driven primarily by increased incidences in Hokkaido, Aichi and Osaka, with upward trends also occuring in Miyagi, Shizuoka, Nara, Hyogo and Okayama. Statistically, the national situation mirrors late June and July where cases began rising prior to the August spike. Trends in serious cases and deaths are likewise trending up.

Time will tell, but for those who dismissed concerns about unfettered travel and resumption of full economic activities, this was what people were concerned about. I also think the focus on Tokyo is not helpful.

I recommend using this site for data relating to the covid pandemic in Japan, it has a large amount of data for every prefecture as well as nationwide:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

Is that a new record low?

It is the lowest number of tests since June 28, where 569 tests were conducted in Tokyo with 60 confirmed positive results.

As cases trend up nationally it is clear that the epicenter of the next wave will not be Tokyo. Okayama, Aomori, Aichi, Osaka are all seeing surges. Maybe more reporting for other prefectures or Japan as a whole is prudent?

What is the law on this?

There are diamonds painted on the road before pedestrian crossings; if the diamond is visible and there is a pedestrian waiting at the zebra crossing, you are required to stop. At least that's what they teach at the licensing seminar when you renew your license...

I feel that somewhere along the line these discussions have devolved into partisan camps playing “Japan vs. 外国” or “doctored death counts conspiracy vs. coronavirus isn’t real conspiracy” or “save the economy vs. public health” wargames. Maybe it is a sign of the times, but it is sad to see at the time of the single largest global event most of us will see in our lifetimes, we revert to such black and white views. This is a global pandemic, every nation needs to work both domestically and internationally to bring it under control. There are no conspiracies. Economies and public health are not mutually exclusive.

Testing and reporting is merely data. Perhaps wider testing provides more data. Perhaps it is also vulnerable to error. But whatever testing regime we are using, we, the people, need to genuinely acknowledge what it says. In Japan, at this time, after about a month of stability, cases outside Tokyo are rising. We have seen a similar situation before, when in late June cases began rising, with Tokyo as the main barometer at that time. We should take measures now to mitigate that rise, or, as we saw in August and early September, there may be another peak. And at the same time, we should support each other economically, and emotionally, and humanely, responsibly. This is not going to end anytime soon. It is a global problem.

Finally, I know it is not anyone’s intention, but when you know someone who has died alone on a ventilator in Japan from covid, these comments about deaths are at the very least unempathetically worded.

Unfortunately, while Metropolitan Tokyo and the neighboring prefectures appear to remain stable, Hokkaido, Osaka and Okayama have all seen increasing case in the last week or so, leading to an overall upward trend for all Japan in active cases:

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

'Fortunately', deaths remain stable at this stage. At this stage, whatever the strategy of the Japanese government, I sincerely hope it prevents, or is equipped to deal with, any future surges. It would be irresponsible to assume that this is over because we have had stable numbers for a month.

This is a link the the USFDA emergency approval findings for one RTーPCR test, including data on sensitivity and specificity. It finds that the test is has a low rate of false positives and is specific to nCov-SARS-2 when subjected to analysis:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.fda.gov/media/136151/download&ved=2ahUKEwjVvv_ll9LsAhXIAYgKHattAJsQFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw01KKYbfY1uDX6dREqk8iCf

In real world application, the false positive rate has been estimated at between 0.8 and 4% in the UK amongst low incidence groups:(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7457918/)

Looking at these studies as a layperson, my interpretation is that false positives are not a significant issue for wide testing regimes where mitigation is put in place. For example, high standards for sample collection and handling, retesting following inconclusive or positive results to confirm diagnosis, and prioritising pretest screening for those at high risk of exposure or health complications (i.e. service staff, medical staff, and individuals with comorbidities).

Its fine to think that Japans method is working fine, but buying into some conspiracy that the situation on other countries is somehow false due to test failure is to diminish the global nature of the pandemic.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

Citation for above.

7 day average nationally has been dead flat at around 500 since August 30.

Indeed, the situation nationally appears to have stabilized as of the end of September at around 5000 active cases, with about 150 critically ill patients at any given time, and around 6 deaths per day. This is based on around 16000 tests nationally per day.

On one hand, it is good news that the situation appears to be stable; however, on the other hand the situation appeared similarly stable in June, at much better numbers. Stability does not mean the virus has magically become inactive. I sincerely hope the powers that be in Japan have serious contingencies in place around the proposed easing of prevention measures and the overall messaging, because, if there is a spike at a similar exponent as we saw at the end of June it could be a very bad Winter.

The number of active cases is falling gradually.

Actually, nationally, it seems to have stabilized for the last month at around 5200;

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

Finally, if anyone has any links to the actual data on mortality for 2020 it would be appreciated.