Herd immunity requires that at least 60% of a population become infected. In the US that is a little more that 200 million people. And, by the way. 60% is a conservative number. The current death rate in the US is 2.87. So, let's assume it's 1.0 since actual infections are much higher. That says 2 MILLION PEOPLE will die. A virtual crime against humanity by the Trump presidency.
Herd immunity is usually discussed when a vaccine exits. So, for measles where immunity is lifelong, 80% or so of the population being vaccinated guarantees that those who cannot be vaccinated because of compromised immune systems can safely go to school, etc ... Other examples are polio, smallpox, and chicken pox.
Flu vaccines as well as one for SARS-CoV-2 when it arrives after completed phase-3 trials and verification only give seasonal protection, and as is well known, do not prevent reinfections.
With respect to Sweden the government itself admitted that too many people died. Denmark just next door successfully implemented the necessary restrictions to flatten the curves while minimizing deaths.
Remember: Economies always come back even when obliterated as in 1929 and 2008. The dead NEVER COME BACK.
Please a little compassion for others and the vulnerable. SARS-CoV-2 is devastating often will serious long timer after effects.
Wear a mask. The life you save may be your own.
5 ( +6 / -1 )
How did Serena Williams blow a lead of up 1-6 after the first set? Anybody see this and comment?
Victoria Azaranka wasn't quite into her game in the first set. When the 2nd set arrived, so did her game. At the same time Serena began to tire.
In the 3rd set Azaranka quickly broke Serena, and was up 4-1 in the blink of an eye. Serena was tired but somehow still found the energy to play, and her magnificent first serve enabled her to win two more games. In the end Serena could not match Victoria's superior conditioning.
All in all, the best player won the match last night. Bravo for both of them ! Serena is always gracious in defeat.
Otherwise, with respect to the opening couple of lines in this story. RIDICULOUS !! Both Naomi and Jennifer played picture perfect tennis. There were net cord winners for each of them at critical junctures as well as unchallenged, erroneous calls. This is sports; this is tennis. Naomi was the better of the two yesterday in the early, rainy NY evening. Naomi's tennis was impeccable, forceful, and there was never a single instant of self-doubt on either side of the net. Jennifer battled to the very last point.
Naomi's perfection was wonderful to watch. She is simply adorable. She sat in the stands to watch the 2nd match, She wore a Kobe Bryant basketball shirt. Bless her soul. The final is a toss up, but my wife and I will be rooting for NAOMI !
1 ( +3 / -2 )
I watched the match. Naomi played, solid, confident tennis. I'm happy she had the wisdom to withdraw from last week's match when she felt a hamstring twinge. Best to rest and have the best therapy available for the NY Open. She's sensible and dedicated.
Her next opponent, Jennifer Brady, will be a difficult challenge. I certainly hope Naomi prevails. I also doubt that Serena is worried. She never worries.
-4 ( +6 / -10 )
Hmmm ... Seems you don't get it:
"They offered to postpone all matches until Friday and in my mind that brings more attention to the movement. I want to thank the WTA and the Tournament for their support.”
Her single withdrawal coerced them to postpone all matches until tomorrow (today in Japan). That is a major concession by the WTA and USTA, MAJOR.
Naomi's timid personality has overwhelming power. Jacob Blake was shot 7 TIMES in the back when he attempted to enter his car where his 3 children were sitting. That is attempted murder in anyone's mind. It's not clear he even committed a crime. He said he had a knife in his car. If you wish to stop the fellow, just shoot the tires on his car. Not traumatize 3 children for the rest of their lives. This reckless racism must stop now. His mother stated that Jacob is a peaceful person, please have peaceful, intelligent, loving demonstrations in his honor. Jacob lived but will be partially paralyzed for life.
I'm 80 years old and have lived in the black ghetto. I'm white. I've seen this BS even applied to 10 year old children for doing nothing, ZERO. Putting a child in the back seat of a police car because they think he stole the 10 speed he was riding. And threatening him to admit he stole it. It was my 10 speed and he was welcome to use it whenever he wanted to. Right, the POlice let him go. Happily, his father stepped in, phoned the Chief of POlice and the latter along with the two offending cops sped by my home to apologize to the dear little fellow. His hobby was collecting butterflies and he enjoyed flying kites. Doesn't always end that way.
BRAVE NAOMI, and OF COURSE BLACK LIVES MATTER. That doesn't mean your life does not matter by the way.
Wake up America ...
-2 ( +12 / -14 )
I suggest all of you look at the following article on the vaccine created by Oxford University in England. It causes the immune system to generate both anti-bodies and more critically T-cells to combat the virus. While antibodies fade in time, T-cells do not. This is the most promising vaccine out there;
William James ...
1 ( +1 / -0 )
Monty, apparently you don't understand virology. None of the covid-19 viruses that are infecting people, and there are multiple mutations were made in a laboratory. Straight forward DNA analysis by virologists can identify lab made viruses because they have a specific design pattern or backbone.
Made in a lab in China or anywhere else is false. Also, the viruses infecting New York came from European mutations. This explains why NYC took such a hard hit. Scientists really should be consulted before political decisions are made. Flights from Europe to the US should have been stopped or quarantined.
Kyronstavic: Chinese science is sound as well as respected by scientists world-wide.
-1 ( +2 / -3 )
So much BS above. Yes, wearing a mask does slow or stop the spread of COVID-19. Don't argue with me, rather argue with the Mayo Clinic in the USA. The latter is one of the largest and most reputable medical schools and hospitals in the USA. To wit for those who are witless and don't give a damn about others. And by the way, in the US the new cases are among the 17-49 and group who were deniers, and they are dying. THis virus is not the flu. The after effects are unheard of in the common flu. This can leave someone who is cured devastated, crippled, etc.
From the Mayo Clinc :
Can face masks help prevent the spread of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19? Yes, face masks combined with other preventive measures, such as frequent hand-washing and social distancing, help slow the spread of the virus.
So why weren't face masks recommended at the start of the pandemic? At that time, experts didn't yet know the extent to which people with COVID-19 could spread the virus before symptoms appeared. Nor was it known that some people have COVID-19 but don't have any symptoms. Both groups can unknowingly spread the virus to others.
These discoveries led the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to do an about-face on face masks. The CDC updated its guidance to recommend widespread use of simple cloth face coverings to help prevent transmission of the virus by people who have COVID-19 but don't know it.
Some public health groups argue that masks should be reserved for health care providers and point to the critical shortage of surgical masks and N95 masks. The CDC acknowledged this concern when it recommended cloth masks for the public and not the surgical and N95 masks needed by health care providers.
5 ( +8 / -3 )
Mr. Robert Mass, Shyness is NOT a defense mechanism. Some people are shy, and the world's needs them as much as the extroverts. Pretty much genetic.
I've known some of the world's greatest mathematicians, and among them are so many shy individuals who love to be alone and dedicate themselves to advancing one of the most difficult mental subjects. Among them also are extroverts as well as introvert/extroverts.
So, unless you are her personal psychiatrist or psychologist, your opinion is worthless given your domain of expertise.
I view Naomi as a wonderful, hyper talented young woman who I think should learn to love her shyness. And the results of such acceptance just might be surprising.
I'll always root for her for sure, and adore her shyness. It also just may be that the latter is what makes her a winner. One never knows.
Best regards, stay safe, and make someone else's day a better one,
1 ( +1 / -0 )
I'm American and I'd say American tourists = BAD Idea. Way too soon given the miserable job that is being done at the national level here. Tourists from the San Francisco Bay Area as well as from Taiwan, New Zealand, and Hong Kong tourism is a good idea.
And I'd take China over the US anytime in this situation. I've quite a few friends who live there and we communicate regularly.
The real solution should be strict arrival control and screening along with mandatory two week quarantines for all. This means it's way too early PERIOD.
Not jumping on you :-)
zhufu ni ri ri hao ri, pingan ...
-1 ( +1 / -2 )
Just who are these "Some people in or around WuHan?" This is neither the first pandemic nor the last one. It is not the fault of the Chinese. MERS happened in the mid-East when a corona virus passed from a camel to a human. These viruses are out there mutating. When the next one arrives it will be from some other random place in the world. What the Chinese did to stop the spread of the COVID-19 virus in HuBei province is unbelievable. The people of WuHan suffered horribly. We should be thanking them for the efforts and sacrifices they made to control its spread.
Today I read that a case of COVID-19 occurred in France in December. They had well preserved swabs from a sick individual who recovered. They recently tested them three times and each time the test was positive. It is unclear when exactly this virus initially arrived outside of China. Some here in the US expect it was last fall. We had an unusually early flu season.
There is only one thing we can do to assure our futures. Be prepared. Stockpile Personal Preventative Equipment and Maintain it to assure it is working condition. Give much more of our defense budgets to support scientific research in vaccine preparation; searching for and cataloguing viruses in the wild; do not encroach upon wild animal habitats like bats; and build world-wide cooperation in these areas.
This political brow-beating countries for things that happened in the past or to generate hatred among voters to win elections is idiotic. All countries are guilty of this. It is simply stupid. We are one world and we need one another to solve these problems. Unite and Make the World Great Again.
And remember: Economies come back, the dead do not. All living species are special. Those who are willing to sacrifice the lives of others for their own personal or political gains should never hold a position of power. Never.
Bless all of you, be safe, and I cannot express with words the admiration I have for those nurses, doctors, scientists, etc., for their efforts to save lives and stop this virus. They have gone beyond the political madness that seems to surround us and given all of us an example of how to live our everyday lives helping others.
1 ( +12 / -11 )
expat and Kumagajin
LOL !! You've both hit this one with a couple of aces ...
I'm a hyper-tennis fan, but, c'mon, give the World a few break points. There is a very important match to win right now !
0 ( +0 / -0 )
The corona virus morality rate is higher than for the previous SARS.
False ! SARS was 9.5% and currently COVID-19 is 2%. The latter is expected to diminish as the number of cases increases. I know it's easy to mix up %'s but still ... Let's not spread unnecessary fear.
US CDC: Also, COVID-19 rarely effects children, and when it does, it is usually quite mild.
-1 ( +0 / -1 )
Actually, in the 2017-2018 flu season in the US it is estimated that 61,000 people died. The general US trend according to the CDC:
"CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."
In the 1957-58 pandemic 70,000 died in the US. The important point is to always get vaccinated. In the US there has been an anti-vaccine movement for a few years here.
It looks like a vaccine is in the pipeline for COVID-19, and should arrive this Summer. Clinical evaluations, etc, are necessary. Let's cross our fingers that it arrives.
Please, always wash your hands after going out in the world, and don't touch your face before doing so.
2 ( +2 / -0 )
I guess none of you recall the 1957-58 Asian flu pandemic:
"Asian flu: A pandemic of influenza A (H2N2) in 1957-58. First identified in China in late February 1957, the Asian flu spread to the United States by June 1957 where it caused about 70,000 deaths. Also known as Asian influenza."
I caught this virus as a teenager. There were no medications except aspirin. Still, as a healthy young fellow I was fine after three weeks. I recall getting out of bed, feeling quite dizzy, and just going back to bed. Still, a good immune system dealt with it quite well. No massive fear, and an attentive mother to take care of my needs.
I'm 80 now and still doing quite well. So, stay healthy, exercise, eat well and get plenty of sleep. And above all don't over react.
Also, I was the only one in my family of 5 who was infected. No idea where or how. We never worried about such things. The news these days does cause quite a bit of paranoia.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
Wonderful news. Ganbatte kudasai !
3 ( +3 / -0 )
I'm an elderly driver of 79 years of age. I'm in excellent mental as well as physical health; in athletic condition and still play tennis with 20 year old University tennis team members and do quite well; have run 3 hour marathons but now just take long walks with my wife; swim regularly in our pool; lift weights daily, etc ...
Here in California we are required to take a written test every 4 years. I have and continue to do so with perfect scores; completed my doctorate studies in mathematics; did research in computer science for 20 years at a major university, etc ... . I look forward to a driving test. I think that happens when I'm 83.
My wife is younger and an excellent driver as well as an observant critic. When she decides I should no longer drive, then I'll happily give up the wheel and enjoy being the rider with a free chauffeur.
When we are both not capable of driving safely, then there are plenty of public transit possibilities. And, as long as we can walk, the local markets are only 30 minutes from our home. A nice stroll.
The point is that there are no absolutes here; no age limits. We are all different. And yes, caution is important. The highways are loaded with maniacs here; drunk drivers and for some reason courtesy has gone by the wayside.
4 ( +4 / -0 )
Strange. There is so much to see in Paris besides the beloved Notre Dame. I've been there 50 times or so. I've many friends that live in France, and have also worked in both Paris and Grenoble.
Please go, pay homage to the beautiful cathedral, go to the Musée Dorsey, Le Louvre, Picasso Museum, ride a bateau mouche on the Seine, walk in the Jardin du Luxembourg, go to the top of the Tour Eiffel, enjoy a few the 100's of great restaurants, etc ... ., etc ... . Endless pleasure will always be found in what I consider to be, arguably by some I imagine, the most beautiful walking city in the world.
My wife and I've traveled throughout Europe, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, the UK , Asia, the Pacific Islands, and Australia. Paris est magnifique !
0 ( +1 / -1 )
My wife and I enjoyed walking along "The Philosoper's Path," and enjoying a delicious Italian lunch with our Japanese friend and guide.
Also, staying 4 nights in a Ryokan was unbelievably relaxing. We had a private bath and garden.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
Posted in: Do you think the 10-day Golden Week holiday period from April 27 to May 6, during which the imperial succession is scheduled to take place, is a good idea? The travel industry is eager to take advantage of the unusual business opportunity, while a survey has indicated that people who welcome the holidays and those who do not are nearly evenly divided. See in context
It's a super idea. During this time our friends from Japan often stay with us in the San Francisco Bay Area. They, on the other hand, always reciprocate when we go to Japan.
0 ( +0 / -0 )
Actually, it means "Women's Tennis Association."
0 ( +0 / -0 )
I have such fond memories of this amazing fish market. I was in Tokyo on a business trip, and a dear friend suggested that we go together at 5:30AM to have sushi at Tsukiji. I thought sushi at 5AM. Hmm, worth a try.
So, with my friend as a guide we arrived around 5:45, and waited in a reasonably long line. What amazing sushi! And, I think I only paid 3000¥.
Then we wondered around this hyper-busy place to simply enjoy the spectacle of people purchasing fish. This was in 2003, so yes, an unforgettable experience.
My wife and I have returned to Japan several times since as tourists, and spending a few days in Tokyo, and as well, visiting Tsukiji was always on our itinerary.
2 ( +2 / -0 )
I watched the match on TV here in the US. Naomi clocked a serve at 197kph (122mph). 9 aces altogether. And I think 24 winners. Her astonishing great forehand kept Dominika on her heels, and she too is an excellent player. All I can say is WOW ! I'm really looking forward to watching Naomi's rise to the #1 player in the world.
4 ( +5 / -1 )
The most respected, and now retired, WTA tennis player, Martina Navratilova said, and this is a paraphrase, "Serena may have a good case here, but she picked the wrong place to resolve it."
Chris Evert after a post match interview with Naomi said, "Naomi is a breath of fresh air for the WTA." Mary Joe Fernandez and the other commentator (a woman) agreed.
1 ( +1 / -0 )
I see that all the Williams supporters are pulling out the ‘racist’ or ‘sexist’ cards - pathetic
This always seems to be the excuse and in this case I don't believe it is applicable.
I once attended an Andre Agassi tennis match in San Jose, Ca (Just South of San Francisco). He lost the second set to a young fellow, and immediately broke his racket. When the umpire called him on this, he said the F* word 4 times, and thereby, defaulted the match. The umpire was a man and right on target. My friend and I paid $120 to see Agassi play. I noted that Andre should have stood at the exit and handed out $20 bills.
Pulling out the sexism/racism card is an over worn cliche. The punishment equals the act. And if one regards the matches press coverage, it's almost all about Serena. Sicko ...
8 ( +12 / -4 )
I too watched this rant, and it reminded of my 4 year old's temper tantrums. She's 18 and has outgrown them. Clearly, Serena has not while the Champion, Naomi Osaka easily won by her world class play and behavior both the grand slam and the hearts of the entire world. To me she demolished Serena with her 6-2, 6-4 outstanding tennis.
I read several international news papers to get the world's take on this. I think the French summed it up best.
I've translated the relevant parts, and by the way, every where Naomi goes she will definitely get a standing ovation the minute she steps onto the tennis court to play:
I don’t know if you read French but this is right on:
Bourrée d’autodérision, la jeune femme de 20 ans est réputée pour être timide, douce et toujours polie. Quand on lui demanda si son titre allait lui donner confiance, elle eut cette réponse : « Disons que ça n’est pas exactement mon caractère. J’essaie simplement de m’amuser à chaque match que je joue parce que le tennis, à la fin, ça reste un jeu. Et parfois, quand on est joueur professionnel, c’est quelque chose qu’on oublie. »
I try simply to have fun in each match that I play because the tennis, in the end, it remains a game. And sometimes, when one is a professional player, it’s something one forgets.
Sur le terrain et en dehors, la cadette venait de donner une leçon à son aînée.
On the tennis court and off, the youngest gave a lesson to the oldest !!!
8 ( +11 / -3 )
Spoils of war is pure BS.
6 ( +9 / -3 )
It's very fast to check 600,000 emails if in fact some of them are identical to those previously found in the first analysis of Hilary's email. Each message is "hashed." A hash is a unique identifier generated by a mathematical routine that guarantees different messages will have different hashes.
So, they hash all of the 600,000 or so emails. This should only take a minute or so given current computers' processing power. Then, they compare these hashes to the existing hashes and toss those that are identical. This is actually very, very fast, and the entire process will take at most a few minutes. Note that one need not compare the hash, say, h1, to the hashes of all 600,000 to see if it has a match. A simple technique is a binary search (look it up on Wikipedia). In this case it will take less than 20 comparisons per message, and on the average it will take about 10.
Certainly, the FBI hashed all of the previous messages. This is quite standard for enabling quick data searches. And note that hashing works not only on text but on all data as well.
7 ( +8 / -1 )