Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's flagship plan to strengthen the government's command structure for intelligence operations is set to take shape with the creation of the "National Intelligence Council" and the "National Intelligence Bureau" as early as July.
Japan currently has four major intelligence organizations -- the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office, the Defense Intelligence Headquarters, the Public Security Intelligence Agency under the Justice Ministry and the Foreign Ministry's Intelligence and Analysis Service.
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency has previously identified problems with the way these organizations operate. First, it has said that "information is not shared" among the four agencies. Second, it has noted a shortage of analysts, meaning the organizations are not fully performing the functions expected by intelligence agencies.
In Japan today, intelligence-sharing remains inadequate, with representatives of the various agencies doing little more than meet at forums such as the "Joint Intelligence Committee" and the "Cabinet Intelligence Council." Nor has there been any serious discussion of how to bolster the capabilities of the "intelligence community" as a whole.
The newly enacted law merely provides for upgrading the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office into the new National Intelligence Bureau and establishing the National Intelligence Council above it. Its content is crude, and it is hard to believe that sufficient consideration was given after studying overseas organizations and systems.
The law says nothing about the other three intelligence agencies. Presumably, the National Intelligence Bureau will serve as the central pillar, with the three agencies submitting intelligence documents to it and reporting to the National Intelligence Council. If so, morale within those organizations could suffer in the future.
At the National Intelligence Council, the prime minister will serve as chair, while relevant Cabinet ministers will sit as members. There is no example among advanced countries of a sitting head of government also serving as the head of an intelligence agency.
This becomes clear when compared with the U.S. National Intelligence Council, which serves as the core body for intelligence analysis and assessment. Its chairmen have included former Harvard University professor Joseph Nye and former Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
Its 10 to 18 National Intelligence Officers are specialists in fields such as science and technology or specific regions of the world. They have also included the late Harvard University professor Ezra Vogel, a well-known expert on Japan.
In the United States, this is a function entrusted not to active politicians but to experts with the ability to analyze and assess intelligence.
Under the newly enacted law, however, the National Intelligence Council under the Takaichi administration will not only "investigate and deliberate on important matters" related to intelligence activities, but also oversee collaboration and cooperation among relevant agencies, as well as policy coordination.
At the same time, it will be responsible for comprehensive analysis and assessment of intelligence activities. While incumbent Cabinet ministers may be capable of policy coordination, it must be said that they do not possess the expertise required for intelligence analysis.
Before the 2003 Iraq War, then U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and others publicly asserted links between the international terrorist organization al-Qaeda and the regime of Saddam Hussein, as well as Iraq's alleged development of weapons of mass destruction, even though the CIA had not reached such conclusions in its intelligence assessments. They thereby fueled public support for the war, setting a disastrous precedent.
But it was not proved that the information had been examined by legitimate analysts. It later emerged that the real source was the group seeking to overthrow the Hussein regime.
The CIA's analytical division has one of the highest proportions of Ph.D. holders in the U.S. government and is staffed by many specialists. Even so-called human intelligence, or HUMINT, must be subjected to rigorous analysis.
Mikio Haruna, an international journalist, was born in Kyoto in 1946. A graduate of Osaka University of Foreign Studies, now part of the University of Osaka, he served as Washington bureau chief of Kyodo News and later as a professor at Nagoya University Graduate School. His books include "The Secret Files -- CIA Operations in Japan" and other works.
© KYODO
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