Before Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would resign, his Liberal Party was headed for an electoral wipeout, but polls show the party gaining momentum, propelled by threats from Donald Trump.
Surveys indicate Canadians believe Mark Carney, a former central banker who is the front-runner to succeed Trudeau as Liberal leader and prime minister, would be an effective bulwark against a U.S. president who has questioned Canadian sovereignty.
The shifting race has unsettled Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who appeared on track to easily oust Trudeau as prime minister and end a decade of Liberal governance.
The poll swing has been dramatic, with voters increasingly saying they want a leader capable of managing volatile U.S. relations.
Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, said the Liberal polling rise currently has the Conservatives "panicking," but stressed things can shift before the election, which could be called in weeks or put off until October.
Carney is "the new kid on the block," and benefiting from a freshness that may be washed away as the Conservatives focus on a new Liberal target, after hammering an anti-Trudeau message for years.
In an Angus Reid poll in late December, 16 percent of people said they intended to vote Liberal in the next election, with Conservative support at 45 percent.
On January 6, Trudeau said he would resign as prime minister as soon as a new Liberal leader was chosen.
Carney entered the leadership race on January 16. He is considered the favorite in the vote set for March 9.
Angus Reid data released Thursday, which asked about voter intention with Carney as the presumed leader, put Liberal support at 37 percent, three points behind the Conservatives.
A Leger poll conducted last week has the Liberals with Carney as leader at 39 percent and the Tories at 40.
In the Angus Reid survey, more than a third of Canadians listed "relations with the US including tariffs" as a top issue, surpassing housing affordability, which has been a national obsession.
Multiple surveys this month show Carney edging out Poilievre on ability to handle US relations.
Western University political scientist Laura Stephenson said Canada's current political environment is largely a Trump creation.
The U.S. president has threatened 25 percent import tariffs on all Canadian goods, which would likely cripple the Canadian economy if they come into force early next month.
Trump also repeatedly boasts about making Canada the 51st U.S. state.
Carney, 59, made a fortune as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs before becoming governor of the Bank of Canada, helping steer the country through the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
In 2013, he became the first non-Briton to lead the Bank of England since its founding in 1694, and was credited by some with providing steady leadership through the turbulent Brexit process.
Since leaving the bank in 2020, he has served as a United Nations envoy on climate and finance and as chair of a major Canadian corporation.
"Trump is playing hardball," Stephenson said. Canadians are thinking: "We need someone who can stand up to that. Who does it look like it should be?"
Carney "was the (top) banker for two big countries. People feel that he would be able to play that game, having sat at those kinds of tables," she said.
Stephenson noted that Carney's main challenger for the Liberal leadership, Chrystia Freeland, is equally qualified, having served as Canada's finance minister who negotiated directly with the Trump administration during his first term.
Stephenson suggested Freeland may be facing gender bias, with Carney "looking really good right now as someone who can play the old white man's game."
Experts also say Freeland is hampered by her close association with a Trudeau government that had grown deeply unpopular.
And Carney is clearly distancing himself from Trudeau.
In a Daily Show interview with comedian Jon Stewart last month, he noted that Canada needs "change" and offered himself as someone who "wasn't part of the government."
Stewart countered: "You're running as an outsider?"
"I am an outsider," Carney replied.
© 2025 AFP
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