Americans consume more illicit drugs per capita than anyone else in the world; about 6% of the U.S. population uses them regularly.
One such drug, fentanyl – a synthetic opioid that’s 50 to 100 times more potent than morphine – is the leading reason U.S. overdose deaths have surged in recent years. While the rate of fentanyl overdose deaths has dipped a bit recently, it’s still vastly higher than it was just five years ago.
Ending the fentanyl crisis won’t be easy. The U.S. has an addiction problem that spans decades – long predating the rise of fentanyl – and countless attempts to regulate, legislate and incarcerate have done little to reduce drug consumption. Meanwhile, the opioid crisis alone costs Americans tens of billions of dollars each year.
With past policies having failed to curb fentanyl deaths, President Donald Trump is turning to another tool to fight America’s drug problem: trade policy.
During his presidential campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico if they didn’t halt the flow of drugs across U.S. borders, and on China if it didn’t do more to crack down on the production of chemicals used to make fentanyl. Trump reiterated his plan on his first day back in office, and on Feb 1, he made good on that threat, imposing 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China. The previous day, a White House spokeswoman explicitly linked the tariffs to fentanyl deaths and said all three countries “have all enabled illegal drugs to pour into America.”
Speaking as a professor who studies social policy, I think both fentanyl and the proposed import taxes represent significant threats to the U.S. While the human toll of fentanyl is undeniable, the real question is whether tariffs will work – or worsen what’s already a crisis.
Fentanyl: The ‘single greatest challenge’
In 2021, more than 107,000 Americans died from overdoses – the most ever recorded – and nearly seven out of 10 deaths involved fentanyl or similar synthetic opioids. In 2022, fentanyl was killing an average of 200 people each day. And while fentanyl deaths declined slightly in 2023, nearly 75,000 Americans still died from synthetic opioids that year. In March of that year – the most recent for which full-year data on overdose deaths is available – the then-secretary of homeland security declared fentanyl to be “the single greatest challenge we face as a country.”
But history shows that government efforts to curb drug use often have little success.
The first real attempt to regulate drugs in the U.S. occurred in 1890, when, amid rampant drug abuse, Congress enacted a law taxing morphine and opium. In the years that followed, cocaine use skyrocketed, rising 700% between 1890 and 1902. Cocaine was so popular, it was even found in drinks such as Coca-Cola, from which it got its name.
This was followed by a 1909 act banning the smoking of opium, and, in 1937, the “Marihuana Tax Act.” The most comprehensive package of laws was instituted with the Controlled Substances Act of 1970, which classified drugs into five categories based on their medical uses and potential for abuse or dependence. A year later, then-President Richard Nixon launched the “War on Drugs” and declared drug abuse as “public enemy No. 1.” And in 1986, Congress passed the Anti-Drug Abuse Act, directing US$1.7 billion for drug enforcement and control.
These policies have generally failed to curb drug supply and use, while also causing significant harm to people and communities of color. For example, between 1980 and 1997, the number of incarcerations for nonviolent drug offenses went from 50,000 to 400,000. But these policies hardly put a dent in consumption. The share of high school seniors using drugs dipped only slightly over the same period, from 65% in 1980 to 58% in 1997.
In short, past U.S. efforts to reduce illegal drug use haven’t been especially effective. Now, it looks like the U.S. is shifting toward using tariffs – but research suggests that those will not lead to better outcomes either, and could actually cause considerable harm.
Why tariffs won’t work
America’s experiments with tariffs can be traced back to the founding era with the passage of the Tariff Act of 1789. This long history has shown that tariffs, industrial subsidies and protectionist policies don’t do much to stimulate broad economic growth at home – but they raise prices for consumers and can even lead to global economic instability. History also shows that tariffs don’t work especially well as negotiating tools, failing to effect significant policy changes in target countries. Economists generally agree that the costs of tariffs outweigh the benefits.
Over the course of Trump’s first term, the average effective tariff rate on Chinese imports went from 3% to 11%. But while imports from China fell slightly, the overall trade relationship didn’t change much: China remains the second-largest supplier of goods to the U.S.
The tariffs did have some benefit – for Vietnam and other nearby countries with relatively low labor costs. Essentially, the tariffs on China caused production to shift, with global companies investing billions of dollars in competitor nations.
This isn’t the first time Trump has used trade policy to pressure China on fentanyl – he did so in his first term. But while China made some policy changes in response, such as adding fentanyl to its controlled substances list in 2019, fentanyl deaths in the U.S. continued to rise. Currently, China still ranks as the No. 1 producer of fentanyl precursors, or chemicals used to produce illicit fentanyl. And there are others in the business: India, over that same period, has become a major producer of fentanyl.
A question of supply and demand
Drugs have been pervasive throughout U.S. history. And when you investigate this history and look at how other nations are dealing with this problem rather than criminalization, the Swiss and French have approached it as an addiction problem that could be treated. They realized that demand is what fuels the illicit market. And as any economist will tell you, supply will find a way if you don’t limit the demand. That’s why treatment works and bans don’t.
The U.S. government’s ability to control the production of these drugs is limited at best. The problem is that new chemical products will continually be produced. Essentially, failure to restrict demand only places bandages on hemorrhaging wounds. What the U.S. needs is a more systematic approach to deal with the demand that’s fueling the drug crisis.
Rodney Coates is Professor of Critical Race and Ethnic Studies, Miami University, Ohio.
The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.
- External Link
- https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-tariffs-cant-solve-americas-fentanyl-crisis-245978
39 Comments
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TaiwanIsNotChina
I think the only solution is mandatory detox for public users. If you can use it off the street, fine, but the moment you are caught with it, you will be enjoying a few months of detox in custody.
Peter Neil
most fentanyl is smuggled in by americans.
stop using so many drugs, america. duh.
sakurasuki
Blame it to China
Blame it to Purdue Pharma
Blame it to Columbia and Mexico
But never blame and never figure out, why demand always exist inside US?
TaiwanIsNotChina
Interesting that people say that US demand is the problem. Well, being a free society, we don't ban everything under the sun like in Asia so we are exposed to more addictive things.
GBR48
Mandatory detox might work quite well. You really wouldn't want to go through that too many times.
Criminalisation won't fix addiction. It is a symptom of personal weakness, usually the result of other issues. So work on the real issues, not the symptoms/consequences.
A lot of people take drugs because their lives are crappy. How about the USG improve the quality of life for all Americans.
If you do want to remove drugs, get serious and target the drug cartels as domestic terrorists, with military firepower. And follow the supply chains in the US from the dealers up to source - the product and the money.
As with most of America's other issues - obesity, tobacco, alcohol - it really comes down to individuals making a decision to just not do it any more. You'll be healthier and live longer.
itsonlyrocknroll
The recreational use of stimulants, heck plenty to choice from, weed, to the party trading floor favourite cocaine,
Its is the market, worth trillions.
I have never taken a recreational drug, no, my weakness is alcohol, until I admitted to the fact to my doctor.
It has taken some years to curb the habit.
Trumps threats of "Tariffs" in effect sanctions, have focused Mexico/Canada to take positive action, increased cross border cooperation, however the tone to these threats will never make friends or persuade long term partnerships.
It is a first step, at the very least.
mikeylikesit
The threat of tariffs already helped. Mexico and Canada both agreed to ramp up border enforcement.
Ending the de minimis exemption that allows people to ship undeclared parcels into the U.S. will also have a huge effect.
Fentanyl is getting from manufacturers into American bodies by specific pathways. Tightening some of those pathways is a start. No one pretends this will end the fentanyl crisis. But China’s “reverse Opium War” stance needs to end. Previous administrations (including Trump’s first term) left in place the means for fentanyl gangs to flood America. This administration is finally putting the problem in its sights.
nishikat
Certain services in certain Asian countries are NOT banned like they are in the US. The US banned BYD cars (unfortunate) and you can find them everywhere in other Asian countries. They are even in Japan. The US should make Medicare for all and regulate more so there is more care and fewer heavy duty drugs as the lazy solution- that will help. Even if Trump builds his wall (he won't) the smugglers will use ladders, shovels, ropes, and drones. Maybe also slingshots to get them drugs over the border.
Shhh, Trump people don't go by facts. Let Trump build his wall and he can shut up.....
American citizens smuggle more fentanyl into the US than migrants, data show
(News source)
iknowall
More positive effects from Trump's policies as we can see by Canada and Mexico taking this issue more seriously.
wallace
Fentanyl is frequently mixed with other drugs to increase addictions, and too often, the user dies from an overdose. The US has spent more than $1 trillion on its drug war only to see an increase in them.
bass4funk
Exactly, I couldn’t agree more
elephant200
American bad habits of using drugs, to get addicted and high. They should blaming on their own !
nishikat
Be specific. What has Mexico and Canada actually done. And Canada?
BB
Deadline for China deal passes, so those new tariffs take effect. And China immediately retaliates. Tit for tat.
nishikat
Trump people: Mexico and Canada are just saying stuff, they actually didn't do anything. I checked and there is no wall and nothing has changed. There isn't anything President Must can do.
virusrex
So, Mexico compromised to put less troops in the border than what it currently have? and Canada to spend billions... since last year? This seems like both simply repeated what they said to Biden and that was enough to make Trump take back the tariffs. If anything this looks more like a scam, making the stock market low and buy knowing that nothing would happen so the market would recover quickly.
falseflagsteve
Winners don’t use drugs
bass4funk
Or they can be dealt with.
Let them.
TaiwanIsNotChina
He says with no evidence whatsoever.
bass4funk
Proof…
https://nypost.com/2025/02/03/us-news/mexicos-president-announces-deal-with-trump-to-pause-tariffs-for-a-month/
And that’s just the beginning
nishikat
It doesn't go into detail. Mexico and Canada is going to do nothing and it just shows and M+C are just scamming Trump. People are crawling all over Trump and this has left President Elon in charge. Again, Trump stopped these tariffs and M+C did nothing in terms of real actions. BTY, eggs are much cheaper in Japan compared to the USA.
nishikat
Yeah! The beginning of fake deals. There was no deal. Nothing happened and Chicken Little just backed off! It's just a fake deal.
elephant200
China should not cooperate with Trump's intimidating tactics. He is rude and he is using his usual blackmailing method instead to dealt with a global crisis. He should ask China to cooperate humbly with saying the word: Please.....please help us to curb the flow of fentanyl. We are in havoc !
elephant200
On China if it didn’t do more to crack down on the production of chemicals used to make fentanyl.
Fentanyl is a drug to ease pain, strictly for medical purpose. It is a drug because the junkies take the pills like eating m&m chocolate beans. America has a very serious drug overdose social problem because American culture is very sick !
bass4funk
China is beyond rude and has been for years, if they don't want to cooperate, then they will be shooting themselves in the foot. China needs us as much as we need them since we buy most of their junk
Yes, he is the US President, not the World President
Yeah, that was a good attempt at humor, I did laugh.
It has nothing to do with the culture; we are not a monolithic group, but I can say that when you live in a place like California, and you see how the politicians make a living in the richest state in the union unlivable and give the people now way out, then you will see increased drug use.
robert maes
Another professor with a cozy nonsense job contributing nothing with a nonsense story.
Peter Neil
high drug use is a sign that many have miserable lives, a byproduct of the wealth gap in the u.s.
Mr Kipling
People who take drugs like fentanyl do not deserve sympathy. They do not have an illness, they made a lifestyle choice.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Everyone deserves sympathy that didn't hurt anybody. Perhaps some time outside of a disgusting dictatorship will convince you of this.
TaiwanIsNotChina
People have told you that was already scheduled. And Trump made a concession on working on weapons smuggling.
Yes we will see much more mental gymnastics to make nothing announcements into wins.
Bret T
elephant200Feb. 4 01:51 pm JST
"American bad habits of using drugs, to get addicted and high. They should blaming on their own !"
Have you read about Japanese use of methamphetamine? Yakuza imports from Taiwan and Korea? How about Japanese government giving drugs to soldiers during WWII? Wikipedia has a good summary of drug usage in Japan.
Does Japan try to control illegal drug entry into the Country? Why? If Japanese people can just choose not to use drugs why does your Country try to control imports? If Japanese borders were open and drugs could flow in freely, what would happen? Nobody would buy the drugs?
I agree that the US has a drug problem. But we are not alone. Every Country has people who cannot control their desire for drugs.
Zaphod
Well, that makes the writer an expert on woke pseudo-science, but hardly on real-world issues of borders and drug production. Take the article for what it is worth.
bass4funk
You missed the point again as usual. Sigh….
But they are wins, this is why those countries capitulated. Relax, not amount of word wrangling will get the left off on altering reality of what he did. Just take it in.
virusrex
No point to miss, both countries "compromised" to what they already were doing, so there is no gain for the US, only losses.
Keeping their previous compromises is not capitulating, if anything that would mean they did that with Biden, not with Trump.
iknowall
You missed the point.
Again.
There are actually resources where you can learn about this issue.
Bob Fosse
Places ‘like California’ include Florida, West Virginia, Indiana, Tennessee? You know the states which have the highest overdose rates and highest opioid prescription rates?
bass4funk
Wrong again
I disagree
I disagree
wallace
Less than 1% of America’s fentanyl comes in from Canada.
virusrex
Since you have not been able to defend any point that still means there is no point to miss, just a refusal to accept reality.
None of which refutes the fact that there was no benefit obtained from the threat of tariffs, all was long agreed with.
You have not used any argument, just said "i disagree" without arguing how it is wrong, this would explain why you choose to be mistaken only.
You could not refute the fact that the compromises are just what was agreed before, so disagreeing without proving anything just mean you are unable to accept reality.