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Japan's rice production for 2024 is expected to reach 6.83 million tons, exceeding the estimated demand for the year through next June of 6.74 million tons, the farm ministry said Wednesday.
Private-sector rice inventories are projected to improve to 1.62 million tons by the end of June 2025 from an all-time low of 1.53 million tons a year earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said, boding well for the recent supply shortages and price surge caused by extreme summer heat that reduced the previous season's harvest.
But the price of rice, a staple food, may remain relatively high, as inflation is expected to keep production costs such as for utilities and fertilizers elevated, observers said.
Regarding demand, the ministry believes the long-term downward trend will remain unchanged, with recent demand growth simply the result of a slower pace in rice price increases than those of noodles and bread and more consumption in restaurants on the back of the current booming inbound tourism.
Production volume in 2025 is expected to remain unchanged at 6.83 million tons, but demand is likely to fall to 6.63 million tons, partly due to high prices, the ministry said.
The supply and demand outlook may be revised, however, as some experts, in a meeting hosted by the ministry, warned that "the risk of a downturn in demand is high" due to the reversal impact of the sudden increase in demand this year and rising prices.
The ministry released an analysis of rice shortages over the summer, saying that rice supply failed to keep up with the rise in demand from stockpiling after the weather agency in August issued its first-ever advisory warning of the increased risk of a megaquake along the Nankai Trough.
© KYODO
7 Comments
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sakurasuki
Don't be happy, all cost also rise, gasoline for farm machinery, fertilizer, labor shortage that will need to increase pay for people who involved in farming. So that rice price hike will stay there.
divinda
For reasons of the rice shortage and high price, the article mentions bad weather, it mentions inflation on utilities, it mentions stockpiling due to megaquake concerns, and it of course mentions foreign tourists...
...but somehow it fails to mention what was announced nearly 2 months ago: "Japan’s rice export volume from January to July hit a record high 24,469 tons, increasing 23% from the same period last year, the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Ministry announced Tuesday."
https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/business/economy/20240904-209196/
sakurasuki
@divinda
Exactly, Japan rice export in 2023 already passed 3 times compared to 2017. Still blame to foreign tourist?
Not blaming for Japanese rice trader to export Japanese rice, that more attempting since yen is weakening from time time.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1285110/japan-export-volume-rice/
didou
so no problem until the next panic buying
Mike_Oxlong
The rice "shortage" is a scam. The government controls supply, artificially keeping prices high via subsidies to farmers to not grow as much as they are able. Good for JA, not so good for anyone else.
factchecker
Whew, what a relief. Now the foreign tourists can keep eating it all and not have to worry about being blamed for a shortage that never existed in the first place.
tora
Its wild that you can get 10kg (yeah 10!) of California Kelrose for 2980 at the local gyomu super (the only place I see around that seems to have it). They get a few bags from to time and they sell out within minutes. (Bet the number is limited on purpose to protect the local product).
Wild to think that this time last year Japanese rice was able to be had for as low as 1500 yen (average 1800) for 5kg in the local supermarket. Now it's 3800!! For 5kg! That means the American rice (when you cat get it) can be had for less than half the price., even at 150 to the dollar.
JA etc need to get their act together and stop this artificial price fixing!