Japan's incoming prime minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday he plans to hold a general election on Oct 27.
Here is what to expect in the following weeks as Ishiba seeks to hold on to his party's lower house majority and solidify his position atop a scandal-plagued party.
WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
Ishiba's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race last week virtually assures that he be officially voted in as Japan's next prime minister during a special parliamentary session on Tuesday.
The 67-year-old is hoping to capitalize on his current wave of popularity to revive a party that has seen its public ratings drop in recent months over a series of scandals that partly forced his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, to resign.
WHEN WILL THE ELECTION BE?
Ishiba said the snap election would be held on Oct 27, with a ruling party executive saying earlier on Monday that the new leader would dissolve parliament on Oct 9.
Official campaigning must run for a minimum of 12 days before the election.
The upper house will continue its term as it cannot be dissolved, with the next term finishing in July 2025.
WHICH PARTIES ARE THE MAIN CONTENDERS?
The LDP, which has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war era, currently holds 258 of 465 seats in the lower house.
Although the LDP saw its popularity hit a low of 25.5% in June – the lowest since it regained power in 2012 – it remains the most popular party in a fragmented political landscape.
Some 31.3% of respondents said they support the party, according to a poll by public broadcaster NHK conducted early September.
The main opposition is the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which currently hold 99 seats. Its current approval rating stands at 6.6%.
The conservative Japan Innovation Party, which has a stronghold in the Western city of Osaka, currently holds 45 seats, while the LDP's junior coalition partner Komeito has 32.
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THE ELECTION?
The focus is whether the LDP will win the 233 seats needed to keep a lower-house majority by itself.
Winning an additional 28 seats would help put the coalition past the 261 seats of an "absolute stable majority", a level that would ensure control over parliamentary committees, making it easier to push through bills.
© Thomson Reuters 2024.
15 Comments
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Moonraker
Perhaps the LDP cheer squad who never say much can tell us what to hope for.
Stewart Gale
I expect the voting turnout to be shockingly low and I expect the LDP to be re-elected.
sakurasuki
Seeing previous elections, is there anything new to expect?
fluffy_canyons
I’ll give you a clue … nothing.
As a high paying tax resident , double nothing
factchecker
What to expect as Japan prepares for Oct 27 election
Loud waling trucks everywhere, with a muppet waving, shouting their name and zero about policy. Jimin will be duly voted back in.
God help us.
isabelle
Well, well - a general election in a few short weeks. I wonder if this will shut up the pro-CCP hordes that constantly assert that Japan isn't a "proper" democracy just because the LDP had a leadership election.
(Who am I kidding? They'll just post some other straw man/tu quoque/false equivalence/false dilemma/outright lie instead.)
Big
This one's easy... What can we expect? Noise.
quercetum
Isabel, you are indeed confused.
Your celebration over the snap election reveals your lack of understanding and inability to draw the right conclusion. Ishiba was not going to call for an election but he changed as soon as he was chosen. You as an effervescent evangelist for Japanese democracy should be disappointed.
Ishiba has not even been installed as the Souri Daikin and some are saying that the kingpins are discussing whom to install after Mr. Ishiba. He unfortunately seems destined to be an interim prime minister which shows the sad state of Japan’s stagnant democracy and its incessant game of prime minister musical chairs.
The people, contrary to your clamoring, do not get to decide. It’s the party and its factions - much like the CPC - that decide: Aso faction, Abe faction, Nikai faction, Motegi faction, Komeito. Then they distribute the cabinet ministers accordingly: four ministers to the largest faction, two here and two there.
This closed group is akin to a neo-feudal aristocracy and we, not you though, are seeing pessimism and people losing faith in democracy as seen by the authoritarian nationalist gaining popularity and finishing runner up to another conservative who will become the temporary prime minister.
My assessment of Japan’s democracy is in the majority opinion here as you can see for yourself: nothing will change and we can expect the LDP elected and more of the same wash rinse and repeat.
aaronagstring
I am completely overwhelmed and over-excited at the prospect of yet another election in this country. This country that takes my money but says I am ineligible to vote - glorifies in my ineligibility, even rubs my nose in it - but half of you don’t really vote anyway, ‘cos you don’t really care about the result. This country that only cares about being seen to support “the winner.”
With you on this. When I hear the vans coming, I just give them a blast of Zeppelin or Floyd.
deanzaZZR
What a crazy electoral system. You vote on a leader's promises and not his/her actual record.
runner3
Wow, when is Japan not having an election?
Bad Haircut
Japan's outstanding at using democracy as window dressing, without the core tenets having much influence on how the country actually operates. So it'll be vans, loudspeakers and white gloves everywhere for a few weeks, then business as usual as the voters are ignored till next time.
Whats up Chums?
Expect an LDP victory.
Mr Kipling
I expect the obedient population who say they do not support the LDP will as usual, either stay home or go out and re-election the LDP.
It is the default setting. The feudal mindset of supporting hereditary leaders is still strong in the provinces where the elections are decided.
Simon Foston
Mr KiplingToday 11:27 am JST
It's no accident that those areas have twice as many Diet seats as the big cities