Shigeru Ishiba will face five key challenges when he becomes Japan's new prime minister on Tuesday after being voted leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Security threats
Nerves are running high over China's increasingly aggressive moves in the region, following the first confirmed incursion by a Chinese military aircraft into Japanese airspace in August.
Other incidents have soured relations since then, including the fatal stabbing of a Japanese schoolboy in Shenzhen.
Security policy expert Ishiba wants to boost Japan's defense capabilities and proposes an "Asian NATO" to counter threats including North Korean missile tests.
He also wants a more equal alliance with the United States -- "but there is no need to hyperventilate about the prospects for dramatic change" in defense policy, said Nicholas Szechenyi of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"The rapidly deteriorating security environment in Asia favors more security cooperation with the United States and other partners," he said.
LDP scandals
Outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had record-low approval ratings, partly due to scandals over party funding and lawmakers' links to the Unification Church.
Ishiba, who intends to call a snap election for October 27, has pledged to make the LDP "a fair and just party" again.
James Brady of consulting firm Teneo said Ishiba's "ability to reflect the popular mood was evident earlier this year in his criticism of his party's response to the political funding scandal".
But a general election could also rehabilitate some disgraced party members, said Naofumi Fujimura, a professor at the Graduate School of Law at Kobe University.
"In Japan, if you win an election, you are considered to be purified," so some MPs "involved in the scandals may return to the public stage", he told AFP.
Lackluster economy
Sluggish consumption and wage growth have long been a drag on growth in Japan.
Ishiba backs the Bank of Japan's gradual move away from its maverick ultra-loose policies -- a stance that caused the yen to surge after his victory in the LDP vote, which in turn led Japanese stocks to tank on Monday.
His win "implies less pressure... for large-scale debt-funded spending or a return to monetary easing by the Bank of Japan", policies championed over a decade ago by assassinated ex-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, said Teneo's Brady.
To help the government's existing plan to ramp up defense spending to two percent of GDP by 2027, Ishiba has suggested a hike in corporate taxes.
Aging population
Japan has the world's oldest population after tiny Monaco, and its population aged 100 or older is at a record high of more than 95,000, recent data shows.
Ishiba aims to raise Japan's low birth rate through measures including a review of the country's notoriously long working hours, and expanding support for parents.
He has called the revitalization of rural regions -- where shrinking elderly communities are becoming increasingly isolated -- "my life's work" along with security and disaster prevention.
Climate policy
Japan is targeting carbon neutrality by 2050, and Ishiba wants to boost the use of renewables to fuel resource-poor Japan, alongside nuclear power -- still a delicate issue after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.
The E3G think tank ranks Japan in last place -- by some distance -- among G7 nations on efforts to reduce emissions from their power systems, with the highest reliance on fossil fuels.
Economist and former Bank of Japan board member Sayuri Shirai told AFP that Japan needs to focus more on decarbonization strategies, especially in business.
"If Japanese companies don't do that, they will lose out to global competition" because high-carbon emission goods could be punished with taxes and tariffs, she said.
© 2024 AFP
27 Comments
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Burning Bush
No mention of the cost of living. Pass the buck on to companies to increase wages.
Not his problem it seems.
This could be his biggest mistake.
Sh1mon M4sada
Interesting how the nikkei freefall after Ishiba's win. He's saying all the right things in terms of higher wages etc. which should translate to better spending and more profits???
Or is the market saying interest rate normalisation is going to siphon profits from companies?
Either way, it must be a surprise to the market that he won particularly that he trailed behind others in the first round.
Now he's got all these new people in cabinet that are low on experience...
IMHO, Japan is going to be in for very interesting times, particularly on October 27th.
Michael Machida
I think there are way more than a mere five challenges. Way more.
Sh1mon M4sada
Actually, he does think normalising interest rate will help appreciate the yen which will translate into lower costs for imports. Though I doubt he understands fully the ramification to the economy if IR is not managed as a function of cost of money to businesses AND consumers.
To me, a number of LDP candidates pulled a swifty on each other to remove Kishida using the decades old 'slush fund' dirt playbook. It's back to revolving door leadership now...because they all want the top job, and the only way to get that is snipe each other.
garymalmgren
higher wages etc. which should translate to better spending and more profits???
I am not sure that higher wages means more profits, but they do translate to higher production costs, higher consumer prices, higher inflation, and would have an effect on the yen exchange rate.
So, as with many things in life, not as simple as it seams.
garymalmgren
Also no mention of that on-going problem that the LDP has been grappling with for many years and seem to unable to move on.
Should married women be able to maintain their maiden name?
obladi
this might just have been a nikkei bubble caused by expectations of a Sanae win
deanzaZZR
Such a shocking assessment from ... checks institutional association, Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS contributors include Lockheed Martin, Exxon Mobil, Northrop Grumman, Government of the USA, Government of Japan and last but not least, Taiwan. Mind you it is not the Government of Taiwan.
toto_kiboko
Today, the cost of living jumps quite significantly. The saba bento I used to buy is going up by 25% let alone the increment of the postal services etc. Does it make sense to call an election so soon after this heavy burden that we will all feel?
Spidey
As long as this country keeps promoting aging oyajis to positions of power, nothing is going to change. People need to step up and put progressive and forward thinking individuals to these positions.
But who am I kidding...
S
TaiwanIsNotChina
There is no government but the one in Taipei. All others have no control.
smithinjapan
"In Japan, if you win an election, you are considered to be purified," so some MPs "involved in the scandals may return to the public stage"
Yeah, that makes sense.
itsonlyrocknroll
These are the same five policy challenges, amongst others, Shinzo Abe, Yoshihide Suga, Fumio Kishida pledged to tackle!
Shinzo Abe took office 2012!
Doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
Shigeru Ishiba, at the very least, appears to be the next senior LDP politician to find the "top chair" when the music stopped.
elephant200
He is a political amateur, what does he know about economics and security ? What he has achieved in the past 38 years? Ishiba is just wasting your time!
Tim Sullivan
Anpanman doesn't seem to be very popular, but I guess the LDP will win anyway.
Tim Sullivan
He has got a policy -- he wants to make people smile again. I'm not smiling and I bet you aren't either.
browny1
First priority is to immediately increase aid to the Noto peninsula region devastated by earthquake and floods.
And by increase I mean move massive funding to get the job done and involve the SDF in a Big way - as in mobilize 10,000 personnel, bring in mobile hospitals / housing / community facilities, etc . The current levels of pain and despair for 1,000s is numbing.
Begin a concerted undertaking to the huge clean up and infrastructure re-build.
This needs to be done Now - Today.
Ishiba - show you've got your foot on the throttle and hands firmly controlling the wheel.
The 5 listed challenges are all important but can start tomorrow.
itsonlyrocknroll
To be fair to Shigeru Ishiba, he was amongst the most senior LDP politicians that did not forcefully lockdown Japan economy during the pandemic.
Shigeru Ishiba will also think carefully before pandering to the "climate change" cultists.
The costs of "transitioning" to a "green" electricity transmission network needs careful planning beyond the next century to allow next generation climate change technology to be fully developed.
opheliajadefeldt
My dog, yet another old man leading the country, he is nearly 70 but looks 10 yrs older, where are all the younger politicians?.......But then, if he was 45 or 55 he would still take his orders from the LDP. ps...........I read earlier that prices have already gone up in food stores and for postal services. Profit and greed will overrun all.
Stewart Gale
Look at the state of him. At least Kishida looks like some kind of leader.
elephant200
Kishida-san did tried very hard to bring Japan back to track.He quit because he have had enough that bureaucracy and he have to go. This guy make me remember "Mori-san", they are the same people out of touch with the world. Do you know why it takes five times for Mr.Ishiba to get in the office, because he is not a smart guy. But if you line up, your turn will comes. It is not about talent or popularity, just you are old enough and a little luck !
OssanAmerica
Back in 2003 when Ishiba was head of the Defense Agency he suggested that Japan acquire the ability to strike North Korean missile launch sites causing considerable controversy. Today Japan maintains Tomahawk cruise missles which can accomplish that. Ishiba has not been in the forefront, but he's far from a political amateur.
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toto_kiboko
Well. As I stated before, today is the day when the cost of leaving jumps!
https://japantoday.com/category/national/prices-of-3-000-products-to-rise-from-tuesday-postal-rates-also-going-up
elephant200
Defense Agency he suggested that Japan acquire the ability to strike North Korean missile launch sites causing considerable controversy.
Mr.Ishiba's bad idea is cheap, very very cheap but if it is time to press the button, that is a very different business. The North Korean ballistic missile is far advanced than 2004. By the way, Russia is back in north east Asia.Mr.Putin has been annoyed by Japan's constant annoying to get that 4 little islands. Japan's Tomahawk deployment just attracts more incoming ballistic objects. Tomahawk can be intercepted, 40 years old technology !
And China.....we are far ahead than 2004, we are preparing for space war. I don't think those little Tomahawk crackers has changed the strategic posture of Japan. It just made her being a "Human shield at sea" for U.S. but of course the Americans like you doesn't cares the lives of the others !
TaiwanIsNotChina
Tomahawks fly 100 feet about ground. Good luck with that interception. Maybe Russia should focus on feeding its troops and China keeping its subs afloat.
kurisupisu
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Yeh, pretty obvious that if inflation rises and wages don’t then people can’t and won’t buy more…
1glenn
It looks like he is aware of the problems he faces. That is a good start.