Japan ruling party not assured of majority in upcoming election: poll

Japan's ruling party may struggle to retain a majority in the Oct 27 House of Representatives election in the wake of slush funds scandal, while the main opposition could secure more seats than before last week's dissolution of the powerful chamber, a Kyodo News poll showed Wednesday.

The projections, based on a telephone survey of 156,000 eligible voters across the country and information gathered by Kyodo News, point to a rough road ahead for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party despite his pledge to repair its tarnished image and win back public trust.

Nearly 30 percent of respondents in the survey said they have yet to decide which candidate to vote for in the single-seat districts, meaning the final results of the race remain fluid.

Before Ishiba dissolved the 465-member lower house, the LDP had 256 seats. Together with its coalition partner Komeito party, the LDP held 288. The ruling coalition is aiming to secure the majority threshold of 233 at least in the forthcoming election.

The LDP is leading in only about half of the 289 single-seat districts, while its candidates are seen neck-and-neck with their rivals in many other districts.

The party is expected to see its number of seats in the proportional representation section decrease from the 72 held before the race, according to the poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest scandal, in which some LDP members had failed to report income from fundraising parties properly, is expected to benefit the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

The largest opposition party, headed by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, is projected to increase its seats from 98, likely winning support from nonaffiliated voters.

In the first general election since 2021, each voter casts two ballots, one to choose a candidate in a single-seat constituency and the other to select a party for proportional representation.

The race is also tough for Komeito, making it uncertain whether it can hold on to the 32 seats it previously had. Its new leader Keiichi Ishii is facing a fierce battle in his own constituency in Saitama Prefecture.

Ishiba's decision to go to the polls less than a month after taking office has given the opposition parties little time to coordinate their strategies. The fractious nature of the bloc could split the vote, potentially benefiting the ruling coalition.

The Japan Innovation Party, also in the opposition camp, may see the number of seats drop from 43, faced with difficulty in expanding its support base beyond the stronghold of Osaka, western Japan, according to the survey.

The Japanese Communist Party stands a chance of winning around 10 seats, retaining its preelection strength, depending on its showing in the proportional representation section. The Democratic Party for the People may also increase its seats from seven.

© KYODO