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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may be learning the hard way that diplomacy is more difficult than it sounds following his trip to South America to attend multilateral summits, but his inexperience is raising doubts over whether he is up to the job he has been in for over a month.
The absence of Ishiba in a group photo at a summit gathering due to a traffic jam, his perceived bad manners in greeting foreign leaders and a missed opportunity to secure an in-person meeting with Donald Trump, who is set to lead the United States, Japan's closest ally, all added to his gloom.
That comes when Japan's regional and global standing as a flag-bearer of a free and open, rules-based international order and collective efforts to tackle global challenges are being tested.
As Trump prepares to take office in January for a second term, he seems poised to undermine multilateralism again, while China is increasing its military assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region and strengthening its influence by courting emerging countries not aligned with the United States.
"Prime Minister Ishiba does not seem to have a knack for diplomacy," Ken Jimbo, a professor well-versed in Japan-U.S. relations at Keio University, said in describing him as a "late starter" in forging good relations with Trump.
"Former Prime Minister (Shinzo) Abe was quick to make a move and succeeded in building a personal rapport. It was during that time that Japan had some leeway in its own diplomacy (with other nations) because the bilateral alliance with the United States was unshakable," Jimbo said.
Back in 2016 when Trump won the U.S. presidential election for the first time, Abe, then prime minister, flew to New York and met with him in Trump Tower in under two weeks.
Ishiba initially sought to follow that playbook, expressing his desire to meet with the president-elect at the earliest, possibly during his stop in the United States on the way home after attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru and the Group of 20 summit in Brazil.
But his hopes were dashed as Trump's team explained that he cannot meet with foreign leaders before taking office, in stark contrast to the case with Abe.
Japan's alliance with the United States serves as the foundation of its diplomacy and defense policy, making it a priority for any Japanese leader to build strong personal ties with the sitting U.S. president.
Ishiba, who has held the defense chief portfolio in the past but has not been a foreign minister, must navigate potentially turbulent waters if U.S.-China ties grow even more tense in the months ahead.
"If I were to describe my approach to the next president, Trump, I don't think it would be confrontational," Ishiba told a press conference on Tuesday as he wrapped up his trip to Peru and Brazil.
While speculation is rife that the incoming Trump administration may add pressure on Japan, China is apparently softening its stance on its Asian neighbor.
Chinese President Xi Jinping was quick to send Ishiba a congratulatory message on his election as Japanese prime minister on Oct. 1, bilateral arrangements went smoothly for the first Ishiba-Xi meeting on the fringes of the APEC leaders' gathering and the Chinese leader had a smile on his face when he met with Ishiba, who instead looked grim.
Amid concerns that the return of Trump will mean a more protectionist United States that will slap higher tariffs on imports and skepticism over multilateral arrangements like G20, Xi also sought to boost China's appeal to developing nations by promising help.
"China is again trying to fill the void left by the United States, whose focus will move away from Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. We have already seen signs of that at the APEC and the G20 summit," said Junichi Sugawara, a senior fellow at Owls Consulting Group Inc.
Ishiba said he was "on the same wavelength" with Xi during their meeting, but that does not necessarily mean Japan is lowering its guard against China.
Ishiba is carrying on with the push by his predecessors, including Abe, for a "free and open" Indo-Pacific based on the rule of law, calling for like-minded nations to join forces.
While China celebrated the opening of a new port in Chancay with Peru as part of Beijing's "Belt and Road" initiative, an infrastructure program seen as an attempt to boost China's influence, Japan also agreed with resource-rich Peru to build robust supply chains of critical minerals -- a key development for Japanese economic security.
Sugawara said Japan has potential as a "middle-power."
He added that Ishiba should focus on expanding the membership of a trans-Pacific free trade pact that Trump withdrew the United States from during his first term, and maintaining the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework initiated by Trump's successor Joe Biden to sustain U.S. engagement in the fast-growing region, which Trump might now also choose to exit.
But the APEC and G20 gatherings, which were important opportunities for Japan to make its presence felt, seemed to have been overshadowed by the images of an undiplomatic Ishiba and his perceived disregard for protocol and etiquette.
Social media was abuzz after Ishiba was pictured breaking with the diplomatic custom of handshaking with one hand, using two instead, during his meeting with Xi, and in other photos he remained seated while other foreign leaders, including Peru's president, greeted him.
"Prime Minister Ishiba is a known expert on security, agriculture and regional revitalization. There are substantial worries about his negotiation skills in terms of diplomacy and trade," Sugawara said. "Trump 2.0 will be more formidable."
© KYODO
36 Comments
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Yubaru
Every world leader is being put on hold with Trump 2.0, Ishiba is no different. Folks are nitpicky as hell about some things, that is the bigger picture mean nothing.
deanzaZZR
For a diplomatic debut I will give Ishiba-san a solid D. Eyebrows were raised. I know of no progress that was made on any front.
Wasabi
trump is unstable, everyone should avoid the US for the few next years. This is sadly the best option. Brown noise only work with trump when you have money or if you are a "strong" dictator... it is also ephemeral.
The_Beagle
I doubt Ishiba or Japan will have any problems with the next Trump administration. US relations with Japan have been solid for decades.
factchecker
He's not up to the job. It's obvious. Represents Japan today on the global stage alright. Tired, stubborn and totally bereft of innovation and vision.
Hervé L'Eisa
It's offensive to intentionally not capitalize a person's name regardless of who that person is.
Give PM Ishiba a break.
1glenn
No need to set up a meeting with Trump; just send him a big fat check, and all will be OK.
WoodyLee
"" Japan's alliance with the United States serves as the foundation of its diplomacy and defense policy, making it a priority for any Japanese leader to build strong personal ties with the sitting U.S. president. ""
NOTHING remains the same, Japan must find ways to stand alone and be reliant on anyone. The U.S. has it's own national interests as well that may not align with Japans and in some cases may be the opposite.
Best of luck for Mr. Ishiba as he seems to be struggling with several issues that he has little or no experianse with.
WoodyLee
"" Japan's alliance with the United States serves as the foundation of its diplomacy and defense policy, making it a priority for any Japanese leader to build strong personal ties with the sitting U.S. president. ""
NOTHING remains the same, Japan must find ways to stand alone and NOT be reliant on anyone. The U.S. has it's own national interests as well that may not align with Japans and in some cases may be the opposite.
Best of luck for Mr. Ishiba as he seems to be struggling with several issues that he has little or no experianse with.
dutch
hes still 2 months away from office, but the world is already trembling (in a good way) at President Trump.
so unstable he just won the popular vote in a landslide, crushing victory.
BertieWooster
itsonlyrocknroll
I believe Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has had a hint, a warning, a number of sneering political opponents will take undue pleasure in witnessing his public humiliation.
His advisers failed to prepare Shigeru Ishiba for an unforgiving media world stage.
What these miscreants fail to fully understand it is Japan humiliation on the world stage as much as their Prime Minister.
Gaijinjland
Graduate Students in international relations will be writing dissertations about Abe for decades to come. Regardless of what you think of his legacy, he was a class act in diplomacy and did more for Japan on the global stage than any PM before him. Politics is 90% pomp and BS brown nosing and Ishiba isn’t important enough to act like a jerk (like Trump) around other global leaders.
dutch
gamer nerds are still buzzing that Abe dressed up as a game character. They think that had any affect on Japan's international standing.
nope. Its the difference between life and death for a nation. Just ask Americans who found themselves on life support from the tragic last 4 years.
non-Americans don't like when the US takes its rightful place as leader of the free world. Suddenly they are "jerks" despite doing the thankless job of defending their ungrateful behinds.
wallace
So will Trump continue to supply and support Ukraine against the Russian invasion and help protect the free world?
itsonlyrocknroll
Here the rub, the concern, the most urgent priority.
"Prime Minister Ishiba is a known expert on security, agriculture and regional revitalization. There are substantial worries about his negotiation skills in terms of diplomacy and trade," Sugawara said. "Trump 2.0 will be more formidable."
As a recap Trump 1.0 revisit .....
U.S.-Japan Agreement: Agriculture Provisions
https://fas.usda.gov/us-japan-agreement-agriculture-provisions
Trumps team will leverage ruthlessly, any weaknesses will be relentlessly exploited.
Prime Minister Ishiba will need a team of trusted skilled experienced negotiators.
Ishiba will not be taken seriously getting stuck in a traffic jam
Gaijinjland
@dutch
I am American and have been living in Japan for 20 years. The US has no more rightful place as a leader of the free world than any other democratic nation. Where are you from?
The_Beagle
In a more multipolar world, Ishiba needs to be able to deal with more than just cozying up to the US. Russia and China are both powerful and assertive. Alliances such as BRICS are gaining momentum.
Derek Grebe
30 years of blundering failure, economic ruin and acres of publicly-known corruption, and this bloated clown is the best the LDP can do to take the reins of a once-great nation?
When, in the name of all that’s gracious, will the people of Japan decide enough is enough and vote these venal buffoons out?
Peter Neil
sample telephone call:
”good morning president trump. congratulations on your election. japan looks forward to continuing and growing our investment in the u.s.
as the #1 country in u.s. investment, japanese companies employ over one million americans, half a million in manufacturing and 6% of american exports are by japanese companies in the u.s.
the wages paid to americans by those companies is approaching one trillion dollars per year and supports communities across america.
i look forward to meeting with you.”
dutch
You mean help protect the biggest money laundering operation in modern history? At the cost of an entire generation of men on both sides?
Not worth a single bullet.
The_Beagle
I would like to know his accomplishments in agriculture and regional revitalization. Those are major concerns for the citizens of Japan. Rapidly rising prices (rice, fruit & vegetables) and stagnant regional economies should be of immediate concern to him and his government.
dutch
certainly not very diplomatic as it is a very rude and bitter way to start a phone call.
But If we lived in an alternate universe where the Japanese were rude and bitter people (as seen in the imaginary phone call) then I'm sure the answer could be "Hi! as America spends roundly 67% of the bill to maintain military bases in Japan for its defense against China, we look forward to meeting with you too!"
But of course, they would be much more diplomatic.
wallace
dutch
So will Trump continue to supply and support Ukraine against the Russian invasion and help protect the free world?
So you and probably Trump support Putin's invasion and don't care about the free world.
Ricky Kaminski13
Ishiba seems inept as hell, just hope he is one of those awkward people in front of the camera but a powerhouse of firm policy behind the scenes. Won’t give up quite yet as it’s early days (and it’s a basic total reset come January) but yeah , first stages of his prime ministership a low D. Quite the shemozzle.
NOMINATION
Unfortunately Trump isn't pro-war and guns as you seem to be.
wallace
NOMINATION
So will Trump continue to supply and support Ukraine against the Russian invasion and help protect the free world?
I am not pro war but every country has the right to defend itself.
dutch
fortunately I don't have a comicbook-like view of the issue.
dutch
and by god, you'll fight to the last Ukrainian to avenge a century long conflict you know nothing about.
wallace
dutch
So you and probably Trump support Putin's invasion and don't care about the free world.
You don't accept Putin invaded Ukraine a plan he started in 2020 during Trump's first term.
wallace
dutch
I am not pro war but every country has the right to defend itself.
You have no idea what I know. Putin is not interested in a cease-fire.
dutch
No and I don'r accept that Elvis is alive and living in Portland, Oregon either.
I know what the BBC and other mainstream media spoon-feed their poor viewers.
Sio yes, I know exactly what you know.
I'll bet my bottom dollar you never uttered the word "Ukraine" in your life before February, 2022 unless you were playing Risk.
wallace
dutch
Putin's invasion took two years of planning and preparation. 2020-2022.
In the UK I had Ukrainian friends from a long time ago.
Like I said you know very little.
dutch
Oh yeah. I read a mysterious guy by the name of Wallace was right there in the planning room.
And isn't it funny that every lefty chickenhawk suddenly had a bunch of "friends from the Ukraine" right around Feb, 2022!
Those Ukrainians sure do get around!
dutch
I'd say the fact that Europe isn't eating schnitzel 3 times a day and wearing Lederhosen after being bailed out of WW I and II gives it a rightful place.
quercetum
We need to get every available dollar into Ukraine before the administration changes. Poor Americans are being dragged into this even though they voted overwhelmingly against this.