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Donald Trump's return to the White House is likely to make Japan reluctant to raise potentially controversial proposals affecting the decades-old bilateral alliance -- including Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's desire to seek a first-ever revision of a pact governing the U.S. military presence.
Ishiba says he wants to beef up the alliance by changing the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement. But experts warn that attempts to amend the pact could backfire with the Republican president-elect critical of allies he says are not paying enough for U.S. security support.
The Japanese government's priority for the time being is also likely to be propping up the economy, especially after the ruling coalition led by Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in the House of Representatives in the Oct 27 election.
Ishiba, a defense policy expert who took office on Oct 1, views the current Japan-U.S. security treaty as "asymmetrical" since while the United States is obliged to defend its Asian ally no corresponding obligation falls on Japan, with Tokyo instead required to provide U.S. forces with military bases.
"The time is ripe to change" the treaty, Ishiba said in a commentary contributed to the U.S. think tank Hudson Institute and released just days before becoming prime minister.
He proposed stationing Japanese Self-Defense Forces members in Guam to strengthen the alliance's deterrence capabilities including through a SOFA revision.
Under the bilateral security treaty, over 50,000 U.S. troops are stationed in Japan, enabling the United States to respond rapidly to emergencies in a region where China has been increasingly assertive and North Korea has been developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. SOFA was signed alongside the 1960 treaty, defining the rights and privileges of American forces in Japan.
But critics and Okinawa Prefecture, which hosts the bulk of U.S. military facilities in Japan, view the agreement as unfair to Japan, particularly in regard to the legal protection from prosecution afforded to U.S. service members and accident investigations.
When campaigning for his party's leadership race in September and for the general election the following month, Ishiba showed eagerness to amend SOFA, taking a stance more commonly seen from opposition parties rather than the long-governing LDP.
Recalling a U.S. military helicopter crash on an Okinawa university campus that happened in 2004 when Ishiba was defense chief, he said he had wondered whether Japan was "a sovereign state" as U.S. forces sealed off access to the site to retrieve the chopper wreckage with local police unable to conduct their own investigation.
So far the two countries have made operational changes or forged supplementary agreements when high-profile crimes or incidents expose serious problems in the SOFA arrangements.
Ishiba has said operational changes may no longer be enough to address concerns regarding SOFA, but experts are doubtful that Ishiba will be able to bulldoze his way to a revamp.
Ishiba has said the revision is among the issues that should be discussed within his party to establish a consensus.
"It is very likely that his advisors have advised him on how such a policy could cause friction with the United States," said Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, a nonpartisan U.S. research organization.
Hornung, Japan lead for the Rand National Security Research Division, also indicated that the difficulty of altering SOFA rests partly on the fact that the United States has similar agreements with countries around the world, which means changing one of them could trigger calls for revisions of others.
A senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official, meanwhile, suggested that a SOFA revision would be a demanding task that would absorb a lot of the government's energies.
Memories of Trump's "America First" policy in his first term in office are also raising concerns, with the approach described by critics as largely viewing allies in terms of dollars and cents rather than as partners to pursue common interests and shared values.
Trump himself has criticized the alliance with Japan as one-sided, saying in 2019 that "if Japan is attacked, we will fight World War III...but if we're attacked, Japan doesn't have to help us at all. They can watch it on a Sony television."
"Mr. Trump could use Mr. Ishiba's argument of the alliance's 'unfairness' against him," said Takuma Nakashima, a professor of Japanese political and diplomatic history at Kyushu University.
U.S. pressure for Japan to pay more of the cost of hosting American troops could be revived under the second Trump administration, even though Japan decided in 2022 to nearly double its annual defense spending to about 2 percent of gross domestic product in five years through fiscal 2027.
But the experts indicated that Ishiba's ambition to revise SOFA should not simply be sidestepped, since efforts to upgrade the partnership with Washington are important to ensure its durability.
Acknowledging that Ishiba's revision proposal still lacks specifics, Hornung said "similar" ideas, such as taking a cue from Singapore's fighter detachments on U.S. territory, may be "worth exploring," given the close ties between the American military and the SDF.
"This doesn't mean stationing the SDF in the U.S.; rather, it means providing them facilities at U.S. bases to train and exercise more, either on their own or with the U.S." he said.
"I think there are a lot of potential benefits that could be gained," he added, although noting that a thorough cost assessment is required.
Nakashima welcomed Ishiba's presentation of a future vision of the Japan-U.S. alliance, saying his proposal indicates the importance of the allies "sharing what they are unsatisfied about with each other in order to regularly review and improve their relationship."
"If he really hopes to push forward a SOFA revision, Mr. Ishiba must tenaciously build trustful ties both with (Japanese) bureaucrats and the U.S. side before broaching the SOFA issue when meeting with Mr. Trump," he said.
© KYODO
21 Comments
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Asiaman7
Is Japan not paying enough?
Wasabi
Enough of paying for "security". Kick them out and build your army!
dagon
He does have a way with words-That's why he gets the big bucks.
Nicolò
LMAO Who want their colonies' military to stay on their soil
Nicolò
If Japan wants the U.S. to withdraw all its military forces from Japan, the war between Japan and the Axis countries won't happen but the war between Japan and the U.S. will happen
OssanAmerica
Trump said this back in 2016 or so. It is evidence of how his mind is still in the 1980s and he is unaware of how things have changed in the last 40 years.
Japan legalized "Collective Defense" in 2015 allowing for the JSDF to come to the assistance of US Forces if they are under attack, even if Japan itself is not attacked.
Nobody watches "Sony TVs" since the 1980s. In fact everyone was watching Sharp TVs after 1990-2000 when Aquos ruled the market.
OssanAmerica
On May 8, 1981 US President Ronald Reagan asked Japanese PM Zenko Suzuki if Japan would be willing to help the US defend Guam from attack. PM Suzuki declined citing Japan's Artcle 9 restrictions.
OssanAmerica
Japan could. But has no interest in becoming a nuclear power with all the responsibility and baggage that comes with it. South Korea and Australia undoubtedly have similar views.
Five Families
@Keita Nakamura
Did you write this story? I can say with certainty every word written here is purely speculative.
If Japan forces can be an asset. They will be used. No reason at all Japanese self-defense forces cannot be put to work like South Korean forces. Side by side. No reason at all.
We are guests in Japan and in South Korea. Here to support the National defense of the region. Not run it.
Its about teamwork with Trump. Stop stoking what may and may not be.
Time for a collective assessment and strong posture. Diplomacy first.
The threat to the region is great like never before, China is the main threat. North Korea the other. And now that Trump is POTUS elect. More clarity will be disclosed and put forward, rather than the Democratic smoke and mirror agenda we have dealt with in the last four years.
This is not January 20, 2017 – January 20, 2021 When Trump was in office. The situation is not the same in the APAC region. Dems left Kim and Xi unchecked for 4 years. China’s Navy has grown exponentially.
Meiyouwenti
Will Trump ever allow Japan to have its own nuclear weapons so that it can protect itself from the nuclear armed neighbors? Highly unlikely.
Peter14
Ignore the Idiot returning to the white house. Arrange changes and updates when the Americans dont have a liar and criminal in charge. Thats what will be best for everyone in the region.
Peter14
It is not up to Trump of America. The couldn't stop NK, Israel, Pakistan or India from getting nukes, none of which the US wanted originally.
At the end of the day its up to each nation and their people if they go down that road. You just cant stop a truly determined country for getting them if they want them or need them. That cat is out of the bag already.
Peter14
Trump or America.
Speed
With MAGA Gaga in office again, Ishiba should steady himself for the demand to pay even more under SOFA. Trump's election vic was the worst thing that coulda happened to Japan. Just wait. That and a whole lot more will be coming this way.
OssanAmerica
If Japan, or any other US ally, chose to go nuclear there is nothing to stop them. Neither Trump nor any branch of the US government can "allow" or "prohibit" such an action. That choice is entirely up to Japan.
ian
Lol what's there to wonder about
owzer
Technically, that's true. Practically tho, Japan would have a hard time convincing the Japanese public that it is a good idea.
JapanJim
I love allk this Winning under Trump! Either country can end the agreement as the Philippians did in the past.
OssanAmerica
Exactly. It's a domestic issue more than anything else. As I said, Baggage.
Five Families
Dems left Kim and Xi unchecked for 4 years. China’s Navy has grown exponentially.
If I can expand on this.
Biden claimed he had China Checkmated.
At a basic level, this is a logical error in the context of countering China, US alliances are tools, not ends in and of themselves.
Consider the South China Sea. China’s campaign of bullying and coercion against the Philippines continues unabated, and despite closer alliance ties with Manila, Washington still lacks either the instruments or the resolve to counter China’s actions.
How about Taiwan, where much remains to be done to deter China from considering an invasion or a blockade – most experts agree that neither Taiwanese capabilities nor US posture and planning are sufficient.
Or look at economic statecraft, sorely needed if the US is to compete with China on trade and investment with Asian countries. The signature initiative of the Biden administration, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, was weak. It was never going to offer improved access to the US markets for Indo-Pacific countries. But that’s what the region sees as a priority. Even modest hopes of a digital deal collapsed in 2023 due to competing domestic political pressures in the United States. Thank you, Biden.
Biden should have ordered the chain of command here a shot across the bows of Chinese war ships. At the very least. Show a little spine.
So, Biden’s Asia policy has been strongest in areas of existing American advantage and alliances, defence and northeast Asia. Well, that’s half of it and good. It has been weakest in areas of disadvantage in redressing the military balance of power, Bidens approach, delivering economic statecraft, and influencing non-aligned countries.
POTUS elect will inject both strategies. It was Trump who eliminated the Caliphate of Isis.
China needs to be sent a message. Bullies get dealt with.
Blacklabel
There will be zero changes to SOFA that will in any way benefit Japan.
Japan will be lucky to keep the current quite reasonable agreement.