Farmers and meat producers across the U.S. can expect the new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China and the retaliatory action from those countries to hurt their bottom lines by billions of dollars if they stay in place a while, and consumers could quickly see higher prices for produce and ground beef.
But some of the impact on farmers might not be felt until the next harvest and some products might actually get cheaper in the short run for consumers if exports suffer. And the price of corn, wheat and soybeans accounts for relatively little of the price of most products. Plus, President Donald Trump could offer farmers significant aid payments, as he did during the trade war with China during his first administration, to offset some of the losses.
In his address to Congress Tuesday night, Trump argued that agricultural imports hurt American farmers and asked them to "bear with me again" as he seeks to protect them. He didn't mention any additional aid.
“I love the farmer,” he said.
If the tariffs make farmers uneasy about investing in expensive tractors and consumers worry so much about groceries that they cut other spending, that would hurt the economy overall and could even lead to a recession. And consumers were already worried about record egg prices amid a bird flu outbreak.
“Exactly how strong our economy is over time has a lot to do with U.S. consumers' comfort with continuing to go out to restaurants and continuing to buy washers and dryers and just that general activity. And a lot of what we’re talking about here is probably going to slow some of that,” said Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University.
The situation has some farmers stocking up on equipment and supplies in preparation for prices to go up, but it's not like they can easily buy all their fertilizer ahead of time. And consumers might have a hard time stockpiling perishable products like avocados and ground beef.
The details of how the tariffs are implemented and whether any products are excluded will also matter.
Corn and soybean prices for this year's harvest already fell roughly 10% since the tariffs were first announced a couple of weeks ago.
Joe Janzen, an agricultural economist with the University of Illinois, said that has “snuffed out” any profitability in those crops. He called Trump's comments that farmers may be able to sell more of their products at home “at best tone deaf.”
“There is no domestic market for the amount of corn, soybeans, wheat, and other agricultural products that we now export in significant quantities,” he said.
Meanwhile, as crop prices decline, farmers might see their fertilizer bill jump because 85% of the potash American farmers use in fertilizer comes from Canada, which also supplies some nitrogen fertilizer as well. The Fertilizer Institute President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch said “an open, fair, predictable and transparent trade environment between the U.S. and Canada is vital.”
“We need potash to raise healthier crops,” said Minnesota farmer Danny Lundell, who hosted Gov. Tim Walz on his corn and soybean farm near Cannon Falls on Tuesday. “And it doesn’t matter if you’re big, medium or small, it’s going to affect you.”
But Iowa State agricultural economist Chad Hart said many farmers applied fertilizer to their fields last fall and may not have to pay the higher fertilizer bills until later.
The United States imports a lot of lean beef to mix with fattier beef produced at American plants to make hamburger, and that imported beef will get more expensive because nearly half of it comes from Canada and Mexico. That's likely to show up in grocery stores in six to eight weeks.
America exported more than $1.8 billion worth of chicken and another $8.4 billion in red meat to Mexico, Canada and China. These tariffs could easily lead to a 10% drop in exports, Tonsor said.
If farmers aren’t able to move that much meat overseas because of tariffs, they can seek to sell more domestically -- but they’ll likely have to discount prices. Bad for farmers, but potentially good for consumers.
The impact will vary by product. For instance, demand for steaks and bacon may remain relatively steady because little of that is exported, but the price of hams could drop in the U.S. because Mexico is a major buyer of those. The price of specialty cuts like beef tongue that are almost entirely exported will plummet.
Livestock producers will see a bit of relief because the cost of the feed they use will decline, but Tonsor said they will still lose money overall.
“Farmers are very concerned,” said Steve Kuiper, a director at the Iowa Corn Growers Association. "People just aren’t buying stuff,” he said, which is hitting big companies like John Deere and local suppliers that sell their equipment.
That’s the case for farmers who grow table crops as well as commodities. Katy Rogers, who manages an organic farm outside Indianapolis, said that as soon as Trump started talking about tariffs she bought everything she thought would see a price hike in the coming months.
Kuiper hopes that the impacts of tariffs can be mitigated and eventually lead to a more level playing field that benefits farmers. He wants to see trade open with more countries. For instance, he said that for corn, China had already been favoring trade with Brazil, so he instead sees opportunity in places like India.
But Trump has threatened additional reciprocal tariffs on other countries on April 2, which could make it harder for farmers to shift their exports to other countries.
Trump can do a lot to ease farmers' pain with aid payments. He gave them more than $22 billion in aid payments in 2019 and nearly $46 billion in 2020, though that year also included aid related to the pandemic.
But Janzen notes that Trump is working to drastically slash spending across the federal government.
Minnesota's Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, who lost his bid to become vice president last fall, said the tariffs will hurt trading relationships and prompt buyers in China, Mexico and Canada to look elsewhere.
Some trade experts question how long Trump’s tariffs will last as they boost prices for American consumers, including his base voters, who have long complained about inflation and rising food prices.
“It is going to do nothing to help with the food inflation in the U.S,” said Timothy Wise, author of “Eating Tomorrow” and expert on agricultural trade between Mexico and the U.S. “I don’t see it as sustainable. I don’t find it plausible that corporate folks who surround Trump are going to sit back and allow him to destroy their foreign markets.”
Associated Press writers Steve Karnowski and Megan Janetsky contributed to this report.
© Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
45 Comments
Underworld
As he starts trade wars that will decimate farmers.
I'veSeenFootage
"Bear with him" for what, exactly? All economists and experts warned his plans would ruin the economy and might very well create a worldwide recession. Should they be praying for a miracle from Inari Okami?
JJE
Unblock sanctions on Belarus and Russia with regards to fertilizer exports and lower prices.
stormcrow
Bear with me!, Trump says.
But this isn't what he promised. Trump said prices would come down on Day One of his administration, not go up.
bass4funk
Yes!! Time to end all farm subsidies too! Farmers can help take this country back - just let them have the reins!!
Not all, some, some don’t.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/09/economic-arguments-tariffs-trump/680015/
They keep saying that it hasn’t happened.
Naw, no need. Will there be some pain, sure, but like with most things, the left are way off, they keep underestimating this guy again and again and again…
bass4funk
Wrong, he has said this numerous times during the campaign, if the Dems have a better solution bring it….oh, yeah, they don’t, they spent too much time going after Trump making it front and center of their daily routine.
Underworld
bass4funk
No, we don't underestimate the havoc he will wreak on the economy.
Some pain for absolutely no gain.
Underworld
bass4funk
But this isn't what he promised. Trump said prices would come down on Day One of his administration, not go up.
No need. Biden had already got inflation down, and as soon as Trump was elected, it went up again in anticipation of the tariffs he promised.
factchecker
" 'Bear with me,' Trump says "
Who would believe a word that bloviated man child says on anything.
XCAndtheband
Yes, bear with him while he uses the backs of farmers to prop up his billionaire cronies and stroke his fragile ego.
Hardly surprising from Trump.
TaiwanIsNotChina
I'm sure they will bear with you as much as they beared with the inflation under Biden.
lincolnman
Well, what did the Moron actually mean here?
"Bear" as in what his HHS Secretary leaves in parks?
Or "Bare" as in what he demands of Stormy Daniels and E. Jean Carroll?
Underworld
bass4funk
No, we don't underestimate the havoc he will wreak on the economy.
A recession, I seem to remember and the biggest loss of jobs.
plasticmonkey
I suspect that your knowledge of the agriculture sector is somewhat lacking.
TaiwanIsNotChina
I'm sure the farmers are happy to bear the brunt of the MAGA agenda!
I'veSeenFootage
Oren Cass is not an economist or an expert. Thanks for proving my point.
You do realize during his first term he has to bail out farmers witl billions of dollars because they were hurt by his tariffs, right? His policies produced absolutely nothing and just increased the national debt. Why would it work this time, exactly?
bass4funk
I think you proved my point actually
Ever notice how Democrats seem to sit idly by, as if hope doesn’t suit them? It’s reminiscent of city dwellers dismissing the relentless efforts of farmers. Growing up on a farmland, with grandparents farming, I learned to support those who nurture our crops, not those indifferent to their struggles.
Trump’s 2025 address to Congress championed support for farmers, even as he imposed tariffs on nations like Canada, Mexico, and China. This stance embodies resilience amid global challenges. While some agricultural groups express concerns about potential retaliation, Trump’s America fervor, evident in his address, resonates deeply. The Democrats silence on agricultural issues is perplexing; as if they prefer to see the harvest fail.
This transcends politics about the backbone of our nation confronting contemporary upheavals. Trump’s tariffs, effective April 2, aim to safeguard U.S. industries but risk igniting trade conflicts with major agricultural markets. Farmers, facing uncertain incomes and export challenges, see his decisive actions cheered by Republicans as reflecting their own steadfast determination, even as Democrats cling to their dissenting signs.
So, while Democrats brood, Trump is forging ahead. How’s that call for unity holding up now?
patkim
Well, I guess the price of McDonald's hamburgers will go up, but maybe that might be a good thing. Americans eat way too much beef anyway. Healthier diets could lead to lower obesity rates.
In any case, just like in Trump's last presidency, I can foresee all of that money he saved going to payments to farmers who will suffer losses due to these tariffs. So in the end, it will be a net zero margin.
lincolnman
It's clear what Putin's orders to his Puppet Trump are now....destroy America's No. 1 industry and what it contributes the most to the world - Agriculture...
American farmers feed not only the US, but the entire planet...and what has Trump done?
He's deported all the labor that harvests their crops...and who does he think will replace them, MAGA McDonalds workers?
Now he's twisted the knife by enacting tariffs that countries will retaliate with - by putting stiff tariffs on American agriculture products...
He couldn't come up with a better plan to kill US farmers...
That what you voted for MAGA-fans?
Tokyo Guy
"I love the farmer". Probably said with the same undertone as "I love the poorly educated".
plasticmonkey
That’s one brilliant economic argument.
In Orange County, California?
HopeSpringsEternal
Countries like Canada have insane +200% tariffs on certain agricultural products like dairy for example, DJT simply telling US Farmers, either their markets open or they'll not be selling in the US = Reciprocity = FAIR
bass4funk
Thank you, Plastic
Very, very close
Underworld
HopeSpringsEternal
No, Trump is starting trade wars that will do great harm to US farmers.
I'veSeenFootage
You don't need to list "ten things", Democrats just didn't support the christian nationalist policies of the far-right president. And they are right in doing so. Because they are trash.
wallace
During Trump's first term, the tariff war with China ended up with China cancelling US soy bean imports and changing to Brazil. Trump gave $20 billion to the US soy farmers to cover their losses.
I'veSeenFootage
I really didnt.
How does any of this text copy-pasted from ChatGPT answer my question? I'll ask it again:
His policies produced absolutely nothing and just increased the national debt. Why would it work this time, exactly?
XCAndtheband
Quotation marks on that passage you added, might have helped. Sounded like it was some Chat GPT response. But also, that passage was a whole lot of cheerleading for Trump and no actual substance.
Like others have rightfully pointed out, Trump pays lip-service to the farmers while kneecapping them and then he has to pay them back for their losses with taxpayer money.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration took real action to help out farmers. They definitely could have done a better job touting those accomplishments, but the fact remains that they did more for US farmers.
The Republican party uses culture-war issues and lip service to pull the wool over farmers eyes, yet again, because that’s all they can do to get elected. Sadly, it worked and now more damage is gonna be done to farmers.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/21/trump-biden-agriculture-policies
Peter Neil
canada has had the milk tariff for decades. industrial american dairy companies want to own all markets. the u.s. has 8 times the population of canada and 10 times the financial capital.
it’s no different than u.s. localities blocking walmart to keep from killing off small businesses.
american companies get around the tariff by producing “ultra filtered milk.”
canada is still the biggest market for american dairy with mexico second.
plasticmonkey
DOGE is cutting childhood cancer research. Trump was using a kid with brain cancer as a way to deflect attention away from that fact
Ending something that doesn’t happen. Bravo.
While suing CBS and threatening media outlets with retaliation if they don’t toe the MAGA line.
Awwwww…….
HopeSpringsEternal
DJT Tariffs will do GREAT damage to agricultural producers trying to access US markets while not providing EQUAL access to their markets.
US Farmers will easily and happily take US market share from foreign competitors that have been busy leveraging their protected markets for unfair profits.
US Farmers know DJT has their back
patkim
And yet, Trump took away funding for cancer research. Kind of counterintuitive if you ask me. Trump doesn't want to save people with cancer, but will use this boy as a publicity stunt to show that he cares about cancer patients?
Nothing really special, since all past presidents have either captured or killed high level terrorists in the past. The irony is that didn't Trump release to Russia a well known cyber terrorist in exchange for a teacher recently?
No, what Trump did was end people's right to choose a way that would make them feel right in this world. Trump doesn't understand that gender mis-identification can be both a physical and mental challenge for some people. Giving the choice to help people feel like they belong is a good thing. What Trump just did is force some people facing those challenges to contemplate suicide more.
Well I'll give you that one. That is a good thing that he did.
That was a HUGE mistake. Taking away women's, the disabled, and minority rights will set America back years. Trump basically said to hire people only if they are white. From now on, any employer will only hire white people because they will be too afraid that they will be sued by a white person who was not hired, if they found out a minority or disabled person was hired instead of them.
You mean Trump taking away free speech by banning any media that prints anything he doesn't agree with, even though they are the facts? You mean the fact that at some recent town hall meetings, people have been physically removed for just speaking their opinions?
The fact is that not all illegal immigrants are killers or rapists. Many of them work for almost nothing picking our crops, cleaning hotels, washing dishes, and working in factories. With them working for very little money, it helps to lower costs to consumers.
Huh? If he had any feelings for the children of America, he wouldn't threaten to shutdown the DOE and take away funding for schools in America.
People get accepted to West Point all the time. How is that so special?
Well that's all on Trump. By alienating our closest allies like Canada, Mexico, the EU, and cozying up to dictators like Putin, he has made Americans less proud. I for one, am ashamed when I talk to my Canadian, British, and Australian friends. The thing is, that all of my foreign friends are so understanding and compassionate of my position and most of Americans' position. They all love Americans, but understand that it is being led by a dictator at the moment.
HopeSpringsEternal
Keep in mind, countries like South Korea, China and trading blocks, like EU have VERY high tariffs, including especially food products and yet they have low inflation.
US will be no different, either open up your markets or prepare to pay Equal Reciprocal Tariffs, inflation not an issue
itsonlyrocknroll
April 2nd, remember that date.
Reciprocal tariffs day
Simple drop your tariffs, or move production to the US.
There is a clear choice here.
Like for like.
President Trump is not asking for any favours, just a level trading playing field
itsonlyrocknroll
Maybe also, the end of race to the bottom globalisation, child labour.
There will be consequences, some items will disappear from the shelves.
Prices will rise, adjust.
Manufacturing could have to reset production policies priorities.
However long overdue.
R B Quinn
During the First Reich, the convicted felon and firmer Insurrectionist-in-Chief caused a lot of pain, not only to farmers, but also to the consumer.
Furthermore, the tax payer was stuck with billions paid to farmers to compensate them for the loss of sales to China.
A loss loss for We the People of the United States of America.
The Second Reich appears will be far worse and may turn into a 1930s style economic depression.
ThePunisher
Zero sympathy for American farmers nor their communities.
To use some farming terminology - you reap what you sow.
itsonlyrocknroll
Greed, is the enemy of the working class/social justice, globalisation is the trigger.
itsonlyrocknroll
April 2nd in so many respects will be a day of reflection.
President Trump might back off, I sincerely hope not.
bass4funk
You did actually, and look, I get it, the left needs something to grasp onto and so far they have nothing and still, nothing shiny remotely resembling a nugget is coming their way.
ChatGPT has nothing to do with it, keep trying
Two months in and the left complain when they had 4 years to fix the national debt and not only did they add to it, they tried to hide what it was they were spending our money on, that will go down as well. Look, you can say anything it doesn't matter, the Dems lost everything, so if their strategy is to just jump all over Trump, you guys will continue to lose more and not gain anything, which is fine in a sense, but I love the pile on from the left because it helps our cause.
Cephus
The fact is we have to bear with DJT, because to undo what those good for nothing Dems have done for decades it will get worse before it gets better.
theFu
Remember when we had Presidents that actually thought through changes before they did things? I miss those decades. I really do.
Trump just appears to be clueless, inept, and power hungry. These things impact the lives of real people who often don't have money saved to live 1 month without being paid. There's a term for people like Trump, but it is blocked by the content filters here, which I appreciate.
The 20+ messes that Trump has caused are astronomical. 1/3rd approval rating and sinking.
bass4funk
I just agreed with your statement, no need for explanations, you already said it,
deanzaZZR
It's almost as if the USA voted in a reality show star for the second time.
deanzaZZR
@HopeSpringsEternal You can stop speculating and see the actual NAFTA tariff schedule by following this link:
https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/CA_Tariff_Schedule.pdf