When a severe rice shortage sent prices skyrocketing in Japan last year, Tokyo restaurant owner Arata Hirano did what had once seemed unthinkable: he switched to an American variety.
The price of the Californian Calrose rice he buys has doubled since his first purchase last summer, but even so it's far cheaper than home-grown grains.
"Unless domestic prices fall below Calrose prices, I don't plan to switch back," said Hirano, whose restaurant offers meal sets of fish, rice, soup and sides.
His willingness to embrace foreign rice may presage a seismic change in mindset for Japanese businesses and consumers - one that could allow Tokyo leeway to relax some restrictions if rice becomes a thorny topic in tariff talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called out Japan's high levies on its staple grain.
Wholesale prices for domestic rice have surged about 70% over the past year to hit their highest levels since current records began in 2006. Crops were hit by extreme heat while a tourism boom has added to demand. Worries abound that not much will change this year.
With inflation also raising the cost of living, businesses are now betting that a nation of people known for their discerning palates and pride in their staple grain is open to change.
Supermarket giant Aeon last week began selling an 80-20 American-Japanese blend that's about 10% cheaper than domestic rice after a test sales-run proved a hit. Fast-food chain Matsuya and restaurant operator Colowide began serving pure American rice this year. At supermarket chain Seiyu, Taiwanese rice has been flying off the shelves since last year.
It's a sharp contrast to 1993, when the Thai rice the Japanese government imported during an acute shortage was largely shunned, leaving supermarkets with piles of unsold bags.
Rare shortages aside, for most of the past six decades, nearly all of Japan's so-called staple rice - which is consumed at meals as opposed to rice used for feed or ingredients in other products - has been home-grown. There hasn't been much need for imports while high tariffs, put in place to ensure Japanese self-sufficiency for its most basic food, have protected local farmers from competition.
Japan limits tariff-free "minimum access" imports of staple rice to 100,000 metric tons a year, or around 1% of total consumption. The U.S. accounted for roughly 60% of that amount last fiscal year, trailed by Australia, Thailand and Taiwan. Anything above that is subject to a levy of 341 yen per kilogram.
When Trump announced sweeping tariffs on much of the world this month, he lambasted Japan for what he said was a 700% tariff on rice, a reference to that levy. Japanese policymakers called his remarks on the sensitive topic "regrettable". They also dispute the 700% figure, saying it's based on outdated international rice prices.
It's unclear, however, just how much - if at all - rice will be discussed in bilateral tariff negotiations that began this week. Some analysts think Trump's Republican administration might not be focused on rice as exports to Japan come from California, a Democratic-leaning state. Nor is it clear how much Japan might be willing to yield in opening up its rice market.
In one sign that there might be room for some change, a panel advising the finance ministry on Tuesday proposed expanding imports of staple rice, saying that lifting the 100,000-ton tariff-free cap could help stabilize supply.
That said, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party is unlikely to risk angering farmers, traditionally a strong support base, ahead of upper house elections in July.
"It's not possible to make big concessions on rice just before the elections," said Junichi Sugawara, senior fellow at Tokyo-based Owls Consulting Group.
MORE IMPORTS TO COME
What is clear is that supply remains an issue.
In the financial year that ended in March, tariff-free imports of staple rice hit Japan's 100,000-ton cap for the first time in seven years.
The amount of tariffed imports, while still tiny, also jumped, quadrupling in the first 11 months of fiscal 2024 to just under 1,500 tons.
And this year, rice importer Kanematsu is shipping in its first large-scale purchase of American staple rice, 10,000 tons worth.
"We're receiving many enquiries from the restaurant industry, convenience stores, supermarkets and rice wholesalers," a Kanematsu spokesperson said.
In the week to April 6, Japanese supermarket rice prices hit an average of 4,214 yen ($29.65) per 5 kg, marking their 14th straight week of increase and more than double the same period a year earlier. That's despite a rare release of rice from the government's emergency stockpiles that started last month and is set to continue every month through July.
As for the quality and taste of imported rice, Miki Nihei, a customer at Hirano's restaurant, Shokudou Arata, said she had no complaints and was surprised to learn it wasn't Japanese.
"I had no idea," she said. "I have no qualms about eating imported rice. Prices have gone up, so I'm always looking for cheaper options."
© Thomson Reuters 2025
35 Comments
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Asiaman7
This makes it appear that weather and tourism are the main reasons for the price increase. However, an article in last month’s Asahi Shimbun clarifies that hoarding and speculative trading are the primary causes. Excerpt below.
—
A perfect storm conspires to keep rice prices at historic levels
At what price rice?
Apparently, the sky’s the limit.
Hoarding and speculative trading, coupled with government tardiness, seem to be the primary factors behind the crisis.
The government blames the situation on speculative reluctance to sell.
Rice prices have been high since last summer, after an advisory warning of a potential Nankai Trough megaquake triggered panic buying among the public.
Initially, the farm ministry assumed that rice prices would fall once the new rice crop was released in the fall.
But that did not happen, which is when the finger-pointing began in earnest.
The ministry then changed its explanation, contending that soaring rice prices were caused by a “reluctance to sell” due to unexpected market speculation.
The ministry expects the 2024 rice harvest to total 6.79 million tons, 180,000 tons more than the previous year.
However, the volume of new rice secured by major rice dealers was less than the previous year.
At the end of 2024, it was 210,000 tons less, and at the end of January this year, it was 230,000 tons less.
The ministry attributes this difference to speculative buying of new rice by small and midsize traders and a reluctance on the part of farmers to sell.
—
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15650579
otherworldly
To all the naysayers, I predicted this days ago and got all the downvotes.
Pukey2
What's the point of imposing tariffs on completely different varieties of rice like long grain Basmati? People who swear by Japanese rice would never choose long grain and so it won't pose a competitive threat. And let those of us who want to buy Basmati buy it at normal prices. I really don't enjoy eating Japanese rice as part of Indian food.
BigP
Let the public decide what rice they like not the farmers and the LDP.
Desert Tortoise
There is a fear that a global crisis of some sort could leave Japan without food to eat if they become dependent on imported staples and let their domestic farmers go out of business. Japan is not the only nation that has this fear and it is perfectly reasonable. How to finesse this with trade partners is never easy. The US and EU will confront the same dilemma as most European nations want some degree of agricultural self sufficiency too. The US has no honest grounds to complain. The US government subsidizes agriculture in myriad ways including low cost subsidized water and looking the other way at immigrant slave labor. See how far you get proposing to end agricultural subsidies in the US. Just try suggesting that as a serious policy proposal. Bzzzt. Ain't happening. Every nation protects their farmers.
hooktrunk2
I wish Jasmine rice was more affordable and more widely served in Japan. I love the smell and flavor much more than traditional sticky rice.
Tamarama
Japanese short grain rice IS the best tasting rice I've ever tasted, I can't deny that.
Apparently, if you want a particularly tasty bowl, the Koshi Hikari from Minami Uonama in Niigata is your go to.
I got that tip from a farmer whose family has been on the job for 600 years and supplied rice to the Imperial Household back in the day. He has a very discerning palette when it comes to a bowl of the fluffy white.
deanzaZZR
Price gouging.
John-San
Those Ni Nigata rice fields to the north reflect the setting sun when viewing from the ropeway station top. When they release water to flood the fields for a start to another season it like a quilt of mirrors stretching to the Sea of Japan. Beautiful sight if lucky enough to catch it.
WoodyLee
We got only one Earth, one Sun, One Moon, One Water, And One Soil, what's good for the rest of the world is good for anyone.
Only The GREEDY and Protectionist want's us to believe that their products are better or more suitable for us.
sakurasuki
@deanzaZZR
Blessed by JGovt, global rice price isn't jump twice however in Japan price becoming twice, so there's something to do only with Japan.
didou
Foreign rice does not sell well in my supermarket, even if cheaper. Japanese consumers will stick to Japanese rice. Foreign rice might sell well for restaurants or food professionals where the customer does not require or ask for the origin
WoodyLee
Just give it few weeks before some PAID influencer or TV host start bashing imported rice and claim OISHIKONAYO or some crap like that.
Watch the Japanese or Local Rice prices drop like a hard ball since they can't monopolize it anymore.
Peter Neil
Agree with DT. USAID was a subsidy for farmers. SNAP was a program to support farmers, not to support the poor. Both contributed to keeping farmers in the business of farming as younger generations left the farm. The same for Japanese farmers.
There are many tax and financial perks for Japanese farmers. The LDP has used those incentives to stay in political power.
There is enough food to feed the world every year. Distribution from politics keeps us from acting as a species.
Laguna
IMHO, it's not the rice - it's the water it's cooked in. Here in Kumamoto we've got the best water in the world, and thus the best rice. It doesn't matter where the rice comes from.
Alessio
In other words this is how the legacy media is preparing public opinion to be inundated by low grade American food, as a prize to pay to avoid the mighty tariffs: from second class rice, to genetic modified soybeans, hormones in the meat and so on. What will happen to the well-being of the once healthy Japanese citizens?
factchecker
" To all the naysayers, I predicted this days ago and got all the downvotes "
And you just got a few more :-D
deanzaZZR
@sakurasuki Correct. Someone show some evidence that the wholesale price of California rice has doubled in one year.
David Brent
Japanese rice is only good for sushi, because it sticks together so well. For any other rice dish, basmati or jasmine rice are far superior.
deanzaZZR
Eat what you like. Japanese prefer Japanese rice. I do too.
Japanese consumers do deserve more choice including imported lower cost options.
DanteKH
That's why the price of Nihonshu also doubled....
Speed
When my family from Japan visited me in California back in the 70s, they ate Cal Rose rice for the first time and were shocked at how much it tasted like Japanese rice. The price back then was about 1/3 to 1/2 the price of the same amount of Japanese rice.
Fighto!
I don't think that's really true.
Major beers in Japan also use rice in the ingredients (Asahi Super Dry, Kirin etc) and their prices have been pretty stable. I'm not sure of the origin of rice used in Japanese lagers, however.
Kaowaiinekochanknaw
I was pleasantly surprised when I got some lunch at a Thai restaurant, close to my campus the other day, that they served up Thai rice with the green chicken curry.
Was such a welcome change than Japonica (with Thai food), that I have had so often here. Delicious.
It's now on my list of places I will be back many times in the future as convenient location for my work too.
itsmeagain
I have a simple rule, when I eat with chopsticks I prefer sushi rice because it is sticky and eating becomes a lot easier. For other dishes long grain basmati from California is the best - just try the aroma, cooked or uncooked! Basmati from India lacks that wonderful aroma.
Peter Neil
Many of the Cal Rose farmers are of Japanese decent. And rich.
deanzaZZR
My understanding is that Calrose is related to a strain most commonly found in Hiroshima. Calrose is also suitable for nihonshu brewing which I am sure made the Japanese emigrants to California happy.
wallace
Basmati rice cannot be eaten with chopsticks. I would buy Californian or Australian rice if it were available in our local stores.
justasking
Seriously?
HopeSpringsEternal
More obvious proof that tariff and non-tariff trade barriers hurt the 99% and help the 1%. Time for Japan to get with the program, especially as rice farmers dying off like flies daily and production will continue to steadily fall
kshnd
Grow more potatoes. A katsu curry with thick cut fries would be so delicious (and unhealthy lol). Many tourists would quite happily eat dishes with potatoes instead of rice
Newgirlintown
Blame it on the foreigners. They’re the usual scapegoat for everything else that ails Japan.
Pukey2
And I've never eaten Indian food with chopsticks.
wallace
Pukey2
Basmati rice cannot be eaten with chopsticks.
Do you eat with your hand? You are not Japanese. We mostly eat brown rice, which can be difficult to eat using chopsticks. Japanese mostly eat with chopsticks, hence the sticky rice.
Legrande
Basmati and Jasmine rice is very tasty/superior with Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian fare.
But paired with sashimi, kara age or tonkatsu? Not a chance.