This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be shaking hands with multiple world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian.
They will all be in the Russian city of Kazan on Tuesday for a meeting of the BRICS bloc of developing economies, defying predictions that the war in Ukraine and an international arrest warrant against Putin would turn him into a pariah.
The alliance, which aims to counterbalance the Western-led world order, initially included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but started to rapidly expand this year. Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia joined in January; Turkey, Azerbaijan and Malaysia formally applied, and a number of others expressed a desire to be members.
Russian officials already see it as a massive success. Putin’s foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said 32 countries confirmed participation, and more than 20 will send heads of state. Putin will hold around 20 bilateral meetings, Ushakov said, and the summit could turn into “the largest foreign policy event ever held” on Russian soil.
Analysts say the Kremlin wants both the optics of standing shoulder-to-shoulder with its global allies amid continued tensions with the West, as well as the practicality of negotiating deals with them to shore up Russia's economy and its war effort. For the other participants, it’s a chance to amplify their voices and narratives.
“The beauty of BRICS is that it doesn’t put too many obligations on you,” says Alexander Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “There are not that many strings attached, really, to being part of BRICS. And at the same time, there might be interesting opportunities coming your way, including just having more face time with all of these leaders.”
For Putin, the summit is important personally because it shows the failure of Western efforts to isolate him, Gabuyev says.
The gathering will demonstrate at home and abroad that “Russia is really an important player that is leading this new group that will end the Western dominance -– that’s his personal narrative,” he says.
The Kremlin will be able to talk to major players like India and China about expanding trade and bypassing Western sanctions. India is an important market for Russian commodities, while China is where Moscow hopes to get its hands on dual-use and various military-related goods, Gabuyev says.
Russia also wants more countries participating in a payment system project that would be an alternative to the global bank messaging network SWIFT, allowing Moscow to trade with its partners without worrying about sanctions.
“The Russian idea is that if you create a platform where there is China, Russia, India and Brazil and Saudi Arabia, many countries that are vital partners for the U.S., the U.S. will not be ready to go after this platform and sanction it,” Gabuyev said.
Russia also is expected to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty with Iran, bolstering the increasingly close ties between Moscow and Tehran.
After the invasion of Ukraine, Iran provided Moscow with hundreds of drones and helped launch their production in Russia. The Iranian drone deliveries, which Moscow and Tehran have denied, have allowed for a constant barrage of long-range drone strikes at Ukraine’s infrastructure.
Iran, in turn, wants sophisticated Russian weapons, like long-range air defense systems and fighter jets to help fend off a possible attack by Israel. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment when asked whether the treaty will include mutual military assistance.
For China, BRICS is among several international organizations -– along with the security-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organization -– through which it seeks to promote an alternative to the U.S.-led world order.
Xi pushed for enlarging BRICS, and the Kazan summit will consolidate economic, technological and military ties in the expanded bloc, said Willy Lam, a senior China fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.
Beijing and Moscow also want to see if a new international trading currency could "challenge so-called dollar hegemony,” Lam said.
The summit will allow Xi and Putin to flaunt their close relationship. The two, who announced a “no-limits” partnership only weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, already have met at least twice this year, in Beijing in May and at a SCO summit in Kazakhstan in July.
Although they will continue to present a united front, experts are watching for subtle signs of Xi distancing himself from Putin over the war.
“While Putin will want the China-Russia relationship to appear as good as ever, Xi may also want to signal to Western states and others that Beijing officially remains ‘neutral’ in Russia’s war in Ukraine and is not a formal ally of Moscow,” said Eva Seiwert, a foreign policy and security expert with the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.
“This will be crucial for conveying the image of China as a serious and legitimate peacemaker in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.”
An expected Modi-Putin meeting could see some rebalancing of their ties. Western friends want India to be more active in persuading Moscow to end the war. Modi has avoided condemning Russia while emphasizing a peaceful settlement.
New Delhi considers Moscow a time-tested partner from the Cold War, cooperating on defense, oil, nuclear energy, and space, despite Russia’s closer ties with India’s main rival, China.
Their meeting will be the second in months. Modi visited Russia in July, saw President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ukraine in August and traveled to the U.S. to see President Joe Biden in September.
“India can’t simply abandon Russia because of its deep defense ties, the question of the regional balance of power, and the logic of multi-alignment," said Raja Mohan, a professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore. "At the same time, it also builds and develops its relations with the U.S. and the West because that is where the logic of India’s major economic development and technological growth depends on partnership.”
India and Brazil view BRICS primarily through an economic lens to promote a more equitable distribution of power in the international system, while “China and Russia see it more as a geopolitical forum,” said Chietigi Bajpayee, who studies South Asia at the Chatham House in London.
India and Brazil also don't want to be “pulled into China's gravitational orbit,” said Theresa Fallon of the Center for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies.
Another key participant is Turkey, which has applied to join the BRICS group. That comes at a time when the NATO member and European Union candidate is increasingly frustrated with the West. Turkey’s EU membership talks have stalled since 2016 due to disputes with Cyprus and concerns over human rights.
Turkey’s relations with Washington have been strained over its removal from the F-35 fighter jet program after procuring a Russian missile defense system. Erdogan also has accused the U.S. and other Western allies of alleged “complicity” in Israel’s military actions in Gaza.
Membership in BRICS would help Erdogan “strengthen his own hand” at a time when ties with the West are at a low, said Gonul Tol, director of the U.S.-based Middle East Institute’s Turkey program.
Middle powers like Turkey “try to extract more from both camps by being in-between camps, by having one foot in each camp,” he said.
Associated Press writers Harriet Morris in Tallinn; Simina Mistreanu in Taipei, Taiwan; Ashok Sharma in New Delhi; and Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, contributed to this report.
© Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
23 Comments
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TaiwanIsNotChina
Yes, they will always have their den of thieves.
sakurasuki
While the west being stirred by lobbyist when it comes middle east topics, BRICS country can say whatever they like. Try to say something not in favor of lobbyist, that's the end of political life, just see what happened to Jamaal Bowman.
So where's the freedom really exist?
PTownsend
China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian.
The above list of authoritarian leaders, shows that many parts of the world learned little from WW2 when there were cults of personalities like those led by Stalin Hitler and Mao .
On a current world freedom ranking list, where do China, India, the Russian Federation, turkeyi and Iran rank?
But it could be my beliefs are in opposition to those supporting authoritarian regimes and cults of personality, I prefer to be free enough to choose which beliefs to follow, and not have a big brother led state tell me what to think and believe. I also do not want to belong to a cult, especially one led by a narcissistically impaired conman, which is the case in most cults.
stormcrow
The really sad thing is that countries would look the other way from and ignore the tragic plight of other countries being invaded just to be on the invader's (Putin's) good side.
Their view, I guess, is that as long as it's not happening to me, everything is fine.
Underworld
What Putin really wants is an alternative to the US dollar as the global currency to trade in.
They want to create BRICS bridge to bypass banks and transact trades through central banks.
JeffLee
If there were a membership qualification, it could be you need to be a major producer of emigration, ie, a country where a significant portion of your population are desperate to get the hell out.
Kaowaiinekochanknaw
The thermobaric, FOABs the 44 tonne TNT equivilent ODAB-9000 or even it's lesser children, the 3000 or 1500 will ensure they stay very globally relevant for the coming decades.
Game changing.
Fos
The BRICS countries overtook the G7 countries share of the world's total gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2018. By 2024, the difference had increased even further, the BRICS now holding a total 35 percent of the world's GDP compared to 30 percent held by the G7 countries.
Terribly sorry for Washington's interests
Underworld
Fos
And still irrelevant. They still have to use the US dollar to trade. Of course, to trade with Russia, mandarin oranges are OK too.
GBR48
A BRICS alternative to SWIFT would build an economic wall for Cold War 2. Countries may have to pick a side, which would be awkward for a number who need to deal with both. Severe economic damage all round. A sort of global Brexit. The Chinese wouldn't normally be up for it, but US sanctions might push them towards it. India's path to be the next China requires access to both sides. If pushed, Modi politically would feel more comfortable with Xi and Putin.
Erdogan is good at sitting on the fence, but might ditch NATO and shift. Turkey is the EU's shield against vast numbers of incoming migrants, but they won't accept Turkey into the EU whilst Erdogan is in power. Opening the doors to migrant traffic into the EU is a powerful weapon that Putin would love to access.
Quite a lot of the global south would take Russia's cheap oil and China's investment and tech over the alternative, so an awful lot of the world's resources would be on the other side of the fence. Especially energy and food. That would be particularly harsh on resource-poor Japan.
It won't be like Cold War 1, when Russia was full of serfs, China full of peasants and the Middle East/Commonwealth comfortably allied to the West. Putin can do real damage here, if the US pushes China and others into his arms. The US would still comfortably dominate the West, knocking the EU, Japan and South Korea down several notches, as the global economy dives and they become far more dependent upon the US.
Fighto!
And guess where a great many of citizens in these so-called BRICS nations want to live? That's right - the "big, bad" West.
Millions of them emigrate to the West each year - and many risk their lives desperately trying to escape.
Who would willingly move to Communist China, Ethiopia or fascist Russia? Terribly sorry for those living there.
Fos
That's right Fighto, let's all leave in the ethically superior "Western world", turn the globe into a powder keg while making money investing in Wall Street. Turn a blind eye on the destructions in the Middle East and Ukraine caused by the US administration, and watch American football over the weekend!
Eastmann
is there any problem with meeting?
i see none...
discussion are always good as may bring positive outcome...
fallaffel
I'm waiting for the day the BRICS realize they'd be better off as the BICS, or even the BIS. Russia is an economy in decline, and China is probably soon to be.
TaiwanIsNotChina
That's why we use the larger metric of the OECD, which has 40% of world gdp. No need to feel sorry.
Still Putin's War.
Primusinter
Does anyone urge you to move to the other side? No.
To give yourself as an example is a sign of poor one-sided upbringing. Don't they teach you it in the democratic society?
The only thing I can encourage you to do is to visit Kazan someday. It is the most beautiful city in Russia. Moscow is the most beautiful and clean city in the world, but Kazan is even more beautiful. Do it, one day, with pure intentions.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Your side doesn't believe in sanctions, remember? The global south won't be sanctioning anybody, least of all the US.
Jimizo
I’ve been to Moscow.
You definitely need to travel more.
Did you only see Moscow on Tucker Carlson’s YouTube thing?
Fos
We are talking about G7 gatherings here, who, in the last meeting in Naples talked about unwavering supporting Ukraine and fighting China because the latter had few skirmishes with Filipinos fishermen in the Indo Pacific. Not a single word for the genocide that Israel and Washington are conducting in the Middle East. This the G7 universal values we should all support, right?
Chabbawanga
It doesnt matter what you think of them, they have a good chance of reshaping the global power dynamic.
RichardPearce
The American notion that it declaring another untouchable made it so we're more mythic than real, except for American client states that it had had a falling out with.
Now, it did declare that states were 'cut off from the world' with the sort of arrogance best mocked by the story of a British newspaper running a headline 'Fog in the Channel, Europe cut off'.
That BRICS is not only bigger and more than the G7, but if it accepts the top countries lobbying to join, would be bigger than the G20 is something that America's politicians and media media might admit is true, but can't grasp the truth of.
kohakuebisu
What a ridiculous headline. This summit was planned years ago by the BRICs organization and has nothing to do with Putin making a "bid" to do anything. It is simply Russia's turn to host. Next year is Brazil.
BRICs is lots of countries with different interests who don't especially trust each other. However, they are being increasingly united by huge failures of US foreign policy, promising all sorts to Ukraine but not delivering, enabling Israel atrocities and even allowing Israel to humiliate the US (Biden says "don't attack Rafa", Israel attacks Rafa), and then announcing a wish to place 100% tariffs on China for just for being better than the US at building cars. All of this is pushing other countries closer together, most notably and dangerously Russia, China, and Iran. These countries are not natural allies and traditional US foreign policy is to play them off each other.
Posters who think this is all little countries who don't matter couldn't be more wrong.
Primusinter
Obviously, it was under Tsar Peas :)))) Moscow of those times and today's Moscow are two big differences, as we say in Odessa.
I'm giving you back your advice