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Donald Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election has raised the prospect of a tariff-fueled global trade war that may be damaging to Japan and many of Washington's closest allies, rather than dealing a blow to just his main target -- China.
Trump, who was in office between 2017 and 2021, and his Democratic opponent in Tuesday's election, Vice President Kamala Harris, differed significantly in their campaign proposals on issues ranging from abortion and immigration to wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
But on the matter of trade policy, there were some similarities between Trump and Harris. First and foremost, they each acknowledged that higher tariffs can be an effective means of protecting domestic industries from foreign competition.
Their analogous approaches center on one issue -- how best to deal with China going forward.
Trump and Harris, as well as both the Republican and Democratic parties, have identified China as the greatest challenge to U.S. national interests.
Policymakers and foreign affairs pundits had said the United States would follow more or less the same path regardless of the election outcome in attempting to gain an edge over China in areas of competition including trade and technology.
Riley Walters, a Hudson Institute senior fellow specializing in international economics and national security, said the difference between Trump and Harris on the issue would be a matter of "speed."
"Under a new Trump administration, the rate at which these tariffs increase will be a lot quicker," Walters said.
Trump has promised to impose a 60 percent tariff on imports from China and a "universal" tariff of up to 20 percent on everything else entering the United States, which would make Japanese and other foreign products notably more expensive.
In a campaign speech, Trump singled out the word "tariff" as "the most beautiful word in the dictionary" that is superior to love and respect.
He had already displayed an affinity for tariffs during his first term, when he used the threat of such measures to seek concessions from foreign countries.
This time, however, his proposed tariffs are even larger, with mainstream economists warning they would not only slow the global economy and disrupt supply chains but also affect U.S. consumers, who are already frustrated by higher costs for everyday items.
In a clear reversal from decades of efforts by the United States and its partners to maximize the benefits of trade liberalization, Trump believes that tariffs, which are effectively import taxes, will also help shrink the federal deficit, in addition to creating more factory jobs.
Several top Japanese corporate executives who were visiting the United States before the election said on condition of anonymity that they would prefer to see a Harris administration.
"In general, we dislike unpredictable situations because we can't have enough time in advance to plan or prepare risk-hedging steps," one of them said.
For the first time in four years, the United States last year overtook China as the recipient of the most Japanese exports. Every major economic decision in Washington and Beijing, as well as the state of the world's two largest economies, has a direct impact on Japan.
At a time when inflation has fallen without high unemployment in many countries, with a so-called soft landing on the horizon, Gary Hufbauer, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, said Trump's tariffs, even if he goes ahead with only some of those aimed at China, would be "very destructive to the world economy."
Hufbauer expects Trump will be true to his word and unleash higher tariffs against China soon after his inauguration as president in January, adding that the move will also crater U.S. exports to China, as Beijing is almost certain to retaliate with similar measures.
He predicted that Trump will hold off on the use of broad-based tariffs and first prioritize those targeting China.
For scores of countries, national security has risen to the top of the list of concerns. Global supply chains have become increasingly interconnected, as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence will be foundational to the future of economic and military might.
The administration of President Joe Biden largely retained the tariffs Trump deployed while in office and raised those on Chinese goods in sectors of strategic importance, such as semiconductors, solar cells and steel products.
On electric vehicles from China, it quadrupled tariffs to 100 percent, although they are rarely seen on roads in the United States.
Additionally, as part of efforts to make it harder for China to access critical technologies and use them for military applications, the Biden administration has tightened trade controls.
The two clear-cut distinctions between the Biden administration's policies and Trump's plans are the scope of those trade barriers and their degree of expectations for U.S. allies.
Unlike Trump, Harris signaled a broad continuation of the Biden administration's way of using "targeted" tariffs to counter what it sees as China's unfair trade practices while working together with allies to pressure the Asian power and tackle mutual challenges.
Walters of the Washington-based think tank, whose fields of expertise include East Asian affairs, said the difficulty with a Trump administration is that "no one country is safe," given that he hates trade deficits.
The shortfall in U.S. trade with Japan in 2023 stood at $71.2 billion, the sixth biggest after China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam and Germany, according to official data.
However, Walters added there may be opportunities for global companies such as those of Japan to benefit from new U.S. tariffs against China as producers need to find suppliers outside of Asia's biggest economy.
While it is still anyone's guess whether Trump's tariff threats will fully come to fruition, he said, "There could be trade-offs that both harm and help Japanese companies."
"He might not be able to address all of these issues within four years, and the order in which he does anything matters too, adding to the uncertainty," the expert said.
© KYODO
51 Comments
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marc laden
Still you people singing the same parody.. your lies did not pass.. Trump is a racist ( according to you) but he got 10 points more support from black people and 25 points more leads and Asians 30 points up..
Do a fair journalism ...
kurisupisu
.
Which translated means:
”We thought that we could leverage cheap labor in China (to our benefit) instead of investing in the US where the consumers are-we screwed up”
Justin Case
marc, you won. Get over it!
Peter Neil
trade surpluses or deficits are a useless metric. money goes out to pay for products, then money comes in domestically when sold at a profit.
and the u.s. is not in low unemployment. the stats are skewed for political reasons. people are dropped from the count after 6 months, but are not working. try to get a job now - good luck. graduating college students who can’t get jobs are not counted in the numbers.
40-50% of new jobs added to the stats are fake jobs, jobs they don’t exist. companies report them, but have no intention of hiring. one reason is to falsely appear to be expanding to keep the stock price up or get financing.
no one knows about what will happen with tariffs, except 20% on all imports would be great if your goal is high inflation. virtually no companies returned manufacturing to the u.s. with the current tariffs, which were a major contribution to the inflation of the last few years.
deanzaZZR
It's time for PM Ishiba to fly out to Florida and grovel. The last thing the Japanese economy needs are increased tariffs in the USA.
Fighto!
Republican or Democrat, the bottom line is people should NOT be buying things like Apple iPhones and TVs etc IF they are made in China. I hope the 60% tariff on these types of things (which was a bi-partisan policy) is swift and cripples US-China trade both ways, and those who seek to profit from it.
As for the 20% tariffs on Japanese goods? I believe concessions will be made (if they ever do kick in) in light of the fact that Japanese companies employ hundreds of thousands of Americans.
Sanjinosebleed
Yep pretty funny at this stage to see the dem supporters losing their minds...one this is for certain Trump isn't predictable which is good and bad. If he and Elon can really start getting on top of US debt and spending they may just postpone the US fast approaching melt down for another few decades.
I'll be happier with trade wars as opposed to real wars under Trump if he can pull that off as well!
u_s__reamer
When the country implodes in four years, you won't find many who will admit voting for him, like "nobody" voted for Brexit in the UK or, in Germany after May 1945, for that Austrian chap.
Peter Neil
1.2 million.
Alfie Noakes
The US election result is proof that there are consequences in the real world for arming, funding, training and supporting a genocide.
Harris ran the worst campaign I've ever seen by any candidate from a major political party - it was just a copy paste of Clinton 2016, except with added genocide and Cheneys, themselves murderous barbarians. Harris and Biden should be the subject of a citizens arrest and taken in chains to the Hague to stand trial for crimes against humanity, alongside the Obamas, Clintons, Cheneys et al. Hopefully we will never hear from any of them again.
Whoever thought it was a good idea to send out Bill Clinton to tell Arab-Americans their relatives in Gaza deserved to die should be strapped to one of Musk's rockets and fired into the sun.
No fan of Trump or the disturbing people behind him so I won't be celebrating his win, but I'm certainly happy the grotesque Harris and the repulsive Democrats lost.
asdfgtr
Trump loves China. His "Trump Bibles" are made there.
Trump’s administration chose to exempt Bibles from tariffs imposed on billions of dollars of Chinese goods.
https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/best-of-the-week/second-winner/2024/ap-traces-the-printing-of-trumps-god-bless-america-bibles-to-the-country-he-accuses-of-stealing-american-jobs-china/
dbsaiya
Someone had better remind trump that Japan holds approximately $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, and China holds around $800 billion to $900 billion. Not smart to be throwing rocks at people who hold your debt.
Mike_Oxlong
The mod(s) can be as butthurt as they want.
Aly Rustom
Alfie Noakes- this is hands down the best post I have read in a very very long time.
Jay
Trump’s election win is a triumph not just for hardworking Americans of every background, but for anyone who values strength, fairness, and putting country first. This victory sends a clear message to those who want to weaken the United States and to those who undermine their allies - especially China and its forever-ruling Communist Party. With Trump back, Western-style democracy can finally stand strong against the CCP’s ambitions and manipulation on the world stage.
For Japan, Trump’s leadership is a huge win. Japan has long been one of the US's most reliable allies, and under Trump’s policies, it will stay that way. Trump respects Japan’s efforts to strengthen its own defense, promote its own interests, and maintain sovereignty in Asia. With him in charge, Japan can trust that the U.S. will be a steadfast partner, working to secure stability and counter China’s growing influence in the region.
Under Trump, the days of weak Democrat policies that allowed the CCP to expand unchecked are over. He’s shown time and time again that he won’t bow to China’s threats or economic games. For too long, Far Left policies empowered the CCP, giving them an open invitation to take advantage of American jobs and technology. But with Trump, the US can reclaim their industries and building partnerships with nations that value true sovereignty - like Japan. This election isn’t just a win for Americans; it’s a win for anyone who is against the CCP.
PTownsend
And to the US economy, but Trump has convinced many US Americans, among them large numbers that are that are poorly educated, that the tariffs are good for them; maybe because they see tariffs as punitive, and they follow Trump in wanting to 'spank' those that disagree with big brother 'daddy' Trump. Americans deserve the government they vote in, and now they and the world have to live with a US president who has a history of bankrupting multiple businesses, plus who's a conman and liar. Democracy prevailed, thanks to Trump's billionaire backer, their media, see Musk, Murdoch, Putin etal and a poorly educated population willing to believe they might be trickled down on. Hopefully Trump and his billionaire establishment backers don't do what Trump wants which is be a 'president-for-life, which would mean the end of the republic's elements of democracy. Trump interpreters was Trump 'joking' when he said he wanted to be president for life? Was he joking when he said he wanted to create detention centers for his 'enemies within'? How much time, this time, will Trump spend playing golf at one of his global courses? Will he allow the public to know what he says in his conversations with Putin, Xi and others despots?
marc laden
does any one know who is the biggest tax payer on this planet earth? Lefttieees dont like him
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-2x1e4FtRZc
Fighto!
Thanks for making my case even stronger.
Japanese companies - and the Japanese government - will negotiate an exemption of some type, I am pretty sure.
Geeter Mckluskie
The American public could stomach lies about Trump's golf game or crowd sizes. What they got tired of was a captured media and Big Tech continually lying about things that really matter, like vaccine efficacy or real crime numbers or even backing up and elevating fake stories like the Russian collusion hoax. All while being told again and again they're racisit, misogynistic garbage. Politicians ALL lie to serve their interests, the NEWS should be objective and balanced. It hasn't been...Perhaps your concern about lies should lie there
Chico3
There goes the country; down the toilet. If the charges against him are thrown out or he doesn't go to prison, then even more a joke.
Dr Tyrell
I think it'll be very exciting for Japan and America. We love everything Japanese including most importantly the wellbeing of the people. The products from Japan are revered front hardware to art to culture. Japan has played fair since our two nations combined forces. I doubt that'll change.
WoodyLee
Wow, Wow, Wow.
This is the ULTIMATE COMEBACK, Mr. Trump is a true fighter there is NO denying.
JJE
Real enemy is not China, which works hard, but the EU and the other freeloaders (which have actual tariffs on American goods).
Penalize them.
WoodyLee
America is SICK of Biden's wars.
WoodyLee
Congratulations Sir.
bass4funk
Liberals coined that phrase.
Yup!
Yes, they are tired of high prices and that they can't even afford the basics!
He didn't bankrupt it last time.
That is just lib madness not rooted in truth or reality whatsoever.
Yes and that how can he be President for life when we have 3 branches of government? Yes?
I think you need to take a deep breath, libs have a very vivid and wild fantasy, you will be fine, in fact, you will be much better off.
dutch
Alfie, check out the population Gaza over the years and the thousands who work in Israel every day.
Then sit down. And shhhhh.
wallace
Trump's win will not impact me directly probably will my American family.
kwatt
He looks like a democratic dictator. He will do all whatever he wants. He really doesn't care about international things and relationships with other countries. That's a nasty dictator.
WoodyLee
Watch this argument between American Influencer Sneako and Rabbi Shmuley at a Trump victory celebration gathering.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/gccbpM9-igE
Sven Asai
It's only your own bad mindset that sees already a war although this man is not even officially elected by the electoral college and then comes into office. Trump isn't keen on wars, do you remember? He is a business man and keen on making deals, good deals and peaceful ones. Change the aggressive and prejudicial mindset and better become a part of such deals and peace.
bass4funk
You acted as if a Trump Presidency would personally impact you.
WoodyLee
"" does any one know who is the biggest tax payer on this planet earth? Lefttieees dont like him""
Just watched it, Musk still waiting for his Plastic Trophy from the IRS, LOL
wallace
bass4funk
Trump's win will not impact me directly probably will my American family.
I do not agree with Trump, his lifestyle, or his policies. My opinions will not change. Not my president.
smithinjapan
Of COURSE it'll affect Japan. But, remember, Trump called Japanese leaders weak, especially compared to the leaders he loves, like Putin, Xi, and Kim. He knows that if he demands Japan order 25 more fighter jets like Abe did (that the US is no longer using), pays double for the current troops on Japanese land, and builds a few Trump hotels he might not put tariffs on Japanese cars. And Japan will do whatever he tells them because they are exactly what he said they are.
dutch
It impacts every single person on the planet, and for the better.
Even the ingrates.
And as far as your meltdown and histrionics the last few days, it is particularly impacting you.
bass4funk
You're not American, so it really doesn't matter, nor does it impact you in any capacity, but yes, you think as you want.
rcch
“ Trump's victory raises prospect of trade war impacting Japan, other U.S. allies “—Trump’s victory was a victory against corruption, hypocrisy, incompetence, destructive ideologies, inflation, censorship and war—Trump’s victory is good news for the free world (of which Japan belongs)—
Trump defeated an incompetent candidate who skipped the primary process, avoided interviews and journalists like the plague, whose ideologies would further bring the country (and the western world) down, and who didn’t even face her supporters to console and thank them for their work and dedication…
;
the man who was unjustly accused, impeached, arrested, convicted and shot has returned to return some common sense to the world (—Japan and the world should be celebrating Trump’s victory).
wallace
bass4funk
I'm afraid I have to disagree with Trump, his lifestyle, or his policies. My opinions will not change. Not my president.
You don't have to be an American to post comments and opinions.
bass4funk
That is not what I said. Go back and read what I wrote.
quercetum
How does the system work? Is he is found guilty, why isn’t he arrested? Trump is too clever for your legal system.
Peter Neil
JJEToday 08:42 am JST
the u.s. is already a world leader in tariffs, especially on goods from europe.
you can look them up here: https://hts.usitc.gov/
JJE
Nice cope. No, it is.
The times are a changing.
OssanAmerica
Can't wait for the next global pandemic that killis millions of people. And Kennedy is in charge of Americans' health.
Ricky Kaminski13
Let the dust settle and the deals begin. Let’s see what happens before we start playing to the fear and paranoias of our tail between the legs Democrat supporters who don’t know even know what hit them.
What a meek, weak statement to make to anyone. Nothing is predictable Japan, only your desire for easy , non eventful riding and expediency.
wallace
bass4funk
I'm afraid I have to disagree with Trump, his lifestyle, or his policies. My opinions will not change. Not my president.
Since you and your family live here in Japan how do you think the Trump presidency will impact Japan? Will Trump close the military bases? Will Trump impose 20% tariffs?
quercetum
In general, Japanese corporate executives dislike a strong aggressive partner and prefer a demure submissive counterpart.
This is because alpha males are rare in Japan and the weak counterpart is a necessity to compensate for the lack of strength.
In US Japan relations, most Japanese support Harris and were hoping for more an equal footing with the U.S. Trump has shattered that notion.
The U.S. will be an even bigger boss of Japan unless Ishiba goes against the grain.
8T
MAGA the next 4 years will be set up and stronger for an additional 8 years after that.
The Republican party has been transformed.
wallace
On the election results the dollar yen jumped to ¥153.4.
WoodyLee
Why should anyone vote for VP Harris, after all she is already the VP and NOTHING will change if she became the President, almost all the thing she promised are within her reach but she chose to remain SILENT.
Alan Harrison
Trump's victory raises prospect of trade war impacting Japan, other U.S. allies
There will not be a trade war. There will be fair trade.
Patricia Yarrow
Alfie Noakes @ 07:45,
Beautifully composed, and very spot on.
There is a glimmer of hope now.